Jaylen Brown: the first 100 shots

http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/12/11/13803298/jaylen-brown-the-first-100-shots-boston-celtics




Jaylen Brown: the first 100 shots


The rookie has been trending up.



by wjsy  


Dec 11, 2016, 8:00am EST




Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports




Brown was supposed to be a seamless fit with the Celtics after he was drafted #3 last summer. Despite just turning 20 years old at the start of the season, he already had an NBA body and skill set, while raw, would translate immediately to the pro game. His versatility as a defender would guarantee him playing time and, and his athleticism on the offensive end would keep him on the floor. For the most part, that’s all been true. We’ve seen the rookie struggle, but at the quarter mark of the season, Brown has shown flashes of his potential.

Early in the season with Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk still sidelined, Brown got his chances and was fantastic early. Even LeBron James gave Brown props when Jaylen scored 19 points on the King in Cleveland, but his minutes evaporated when the team was finally healthy. He hasn't picked up any DNP-CDs yet, but the leash has been short. If he doesn't spark in his first-half minutes, he doesn't see the floor in the second half.

Brown had a rough close to November, scoring seven points in seven games. However, he strung together three good games on the last road trip, punctuated by his 13-point performance in Orlando that included a poster dunk as an exclamation point. What turned things around for Brown? Getting back to his game. Here’s Brown’s shot chart from Philadelphia, Orlando, and Houston:




In training camp, Brad Stevens simplified his role in the offense: attack the basket. You can almost picture the words "DRIVE, DRIVE, DRIVE" scribbled in permanent marker and underlined on Brown’s mental white board.

In the preseason, Jae Crowder said, “He’s aggressive. You can’t tell him not to take a shot. He’s going to take it and he’s going to make or miss. He feels like he’s going to be aggressive and that’s a good step for a young player, to come into the league and be aggressive because a lot of people don’t come into the league with the confidence. He’s aggressive and I think that’s a good key for us.”


This is nitpicking, but he could be doing better finishing at the rim. In some of his minutes earlier in the season, one of Jaylen’s issues was his hesitancy to play through contact. He’d get to the restricted area but finish with some unnecessary double-clutch Jordan reverse that kids used to practice in their driveways in the 90s.


https://fat.gfycat.com/IdealisticCavernousIndianpangolin.webm


He’s certainly been aggressive. Even though Brown has totaled the fewest minutes of any of the players in the ten-man rotation, he’s fifth in total drives with 36, just behind Rozier and Smart at 52. However, there are stark differences between his penetration vs. his bench mates. Brown is 11 for 20 on his drives, wheras Rozier is 10 for 24 and Smart is 13 for 33. Along with his efficiency, he’s also gotten to the line more times (20) than Rozier and Smart combined (17). When he’s put his head down, Brown has been a scorer, and that’s what this team needs from him offensively. Think Jeff Green on his best days as a Celtic.

But to truly become a threat, Brown will have to diversify his game, and for the most part, he has. His outside shooting was supposed to be a liability coming out of Cal, but so far, he’s held his own. He’s been awful in the mid-range (2 for 14), but beyond the arc, he’s a respectable 35.5% from 3, and he’s been trending up. He rarely forces shots, and when the ball rotates to him, he makes the right decision on whether to take the shot, drive, or make the next pass.


http://infogr.am/8c9e863c-191f-419e-bf95-08a2ed4d8e40


What’s exciting about Brown’s development is that we’ve barely scratched the surface of his upside. If you look at his Synergy play type numbers for his first 100 shots, his role in the offense is that of your basic swingman: as ball handlers break down the defense, he’s either catching and shooting or moving without the ball and looking to finish off the pass. Roughly a third of his shot attempts come off of spot ups and another third on cuts, putbacks, and in transition. His next evolution, one that will likely come over the summer and into next season, will be his effectiveness as a playmaker.


For what it’s worth, I’m not a shot doctor, but one thing I’ve noticed about Jaylen’s jumper is that he has a tendency to swing his legs forward when he rises for a shot. When he’s squared and goes straight up and down, he doesn’t drift as much.

Think Avery Bradley or, better yet, think Avery Bradley pre-Brad Stevens. Under Doc, AB was just a defensive stopper on the perimeter. In three years with Stevens, Bradley perfected a mid-range game, expanded it to the three-point line, and has now become a ball handler and play maker. Hopefully, we see that kind of progression from Brown.

The Celtics have an abundance of ball handlers, and at least to this point of the season, Brown will not be looked at as a play maker. With his speed and size, it’s surprising that he only has 10 shot attempts in pick-and-rolls, dribble hand offs, or coming off picks combined. His role right now is as a play finisher, but down the road, I’d expect for him to get some touches as a decision maker. That role could be a long ways away, however.

Brown has mentioned Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady as idols. There are little hints in his game where you can see the influence of those Hall of Famers: the step-back fall-away jumper in the post, the extended hang time around the rim. Brown’s upside is apparent, but how to capitalize on it and, more importantly, how quickly Brown can develop is the question. McGrady was drafted by a Toronto team in the infancy of its expansion, and he didn’t get a full complement of minutes until his third season in the league. Kobe joined a Lakers team that had already signed Shaquille O’Neal, and he didn’t pop until his sophomore season. Jaylen Brown and fans alike will have to be patient as the rookie goes through some first-year growing pains, but hey, we’ll always have Orlando:





bob
MY NOTE:  It's no secret the rook has had a couple of good games.  He has also had some bad ones.  Such is the life of a rookie.  Maybe sitting him down for a few games was the best learning opportunity Brad could have given him considering the dearth of practice days available during an NBA season.  Let him sit, watch and learn rather than sending him out there to get his brain beaten in night-after-night and learn little because he's inside the tornado and not observing it.

Too soon to see what his true ceiling is, he could just be another Jeff Green, but here's how he's doing vs the other top picks in his draft:

1.  Ben Simmons hasn't played a single game, so who knows?

2.  Brandon Ingram, who is getting almost 27mpg and isn't putting up great numbers (8ppg, 36.6% fg%, 4.0rpg and more TOs than assists).    

3.  Jaylen Brown, 14.4mpg, 5.4ppg on 44% fg% (35.5% from 3).  59% ft%

4.  Dragan Bender is only getting 12mpg and 2.9ppg on 39% fg% and 1.6rpg.

5.  Kris Dunn is 18mpg, 4.3 ppg, 2.7assists and 1.3 TOs.

6.  Buddy Hield, 18mpg, 7.6ppg on 36.6% fg% (28% from 3).  And this guy's calling card was as the best shooter in the draft by far.

7.  Jamal Murray, 22mpg, 9.6ppg on 38% fg%.  Another shooter, not shooting well.


So, when you consider that, other than Simmons who is injured, 5 out of 6 of the other draftees plays more minutes than him, except for Bender, and none of them are showing me significantly higher efficiency I'd say Brown is holding his own so far EXCEPT for fritos.  If his game is full court and slashing, and it is, then he needs to straighten that out ASAP because his game will lend itself to earning trips to the stripe. It is also nice to see he has a higher finishing rate at the rim than the league average.

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Although I really enjoy stats, I do not chase them down very often. So, it is good that Brown is holding his own against fellow rookies, but with just the eye test you can see him improving at various parts of the game. Of course, this is great and is already a tribute to young Mr. Brown and the Cs coaching staff.

As mentioned, he has not scratched the surface on what he will be able to do, and we will likely see only small parts of what he can do over the rest of this season and perhaps even all of next season. But, he is progressing very nicely over the first 20 games of his career.

Some guys have the ability to constantly improve, and he seems very much to have this skill similar to Avery Bradley. Some guys just do not seem to "get it", and I will not mention any names.

He needs more minutes

The above numbers sort of make the point that young rookies are not the answer to putting a team into championship form - certainly not as a go to star. It's nice to look at the potential of Brown but the Cellts still need that one more star to be added if they hope to be a serious contender next year - and they won,t find him by utilizing the Nets pick in the upcoming draft. Its not to often that these 21 and under kids become game changers.

swish

This was a very informative article I really appreciated reading, so I don't want it to appear that I am bashing the author, but there is one statement I disagreed with: "Brown was supposed to be a seamless fit after he was drafted #3 last summer."


Ummm... where is he pulling that opinion from? Many fans booed him at the draft. Most evaluators said he was a slight reach deserving of the 5th-8th pick and was very raw. His playmaking and outside shooting were criticized (which the author mentioned) as well as his stats at Cal and why he didn't make a bigger impact, like the one Ingram the #2 pick made at Duke. 

That being said, my prediction/hope for the young man this season was that he combine with Rozier to replace what Evan Turner brought last season. Rozier would need to replace Turner's playmaking/assists and D on SG's and Brown more his slashing/driving finishing at the rim and D on SF's while both replaced his overall minutes, rebounding and shooting #'s. 

Turner in 2015-16:

28 mins  10.5 pts  4.9 rebs  4.4 asts  1 stl  2.1 TO's  45/24/83 shooting %'s  13.6 PER 

Brown and Rozier:

R - 18.7 mins  6.5 pts  3.5 rebs  2.0 asts  0.7 stls  0.6 TO's  40/33/73 shooting %'s  13.0 PER
B - 14.4 mins  5.4 pts  2.0 rebs  0.7 asts  0.4 stls  0.7 TO's  44/36/59 shooting %'s  10.4 PER

As you can see, they are mostly combining to replace that role in 5 more mins of floor time. The 3 point shooting is better, turnovers are slightly down and on a per minute basis points, 2 point FG%, steals and rebounds are roughly the same. The defense has been up and down, but almost always above average, which was Turner's MO as well.

Where they fall off is in FT shooting and assists. This is what keeps their PER's down as well. Also the mid-range game with that 'clutch' factor ET had. We're hoping Smart fills that void a bit, as he has shown flashes of being able to do, and the leadership role and 'kinda scary dude nobody wants to tangle with' role has definitely already been filled by Marcus. 

But for the C's to really take things to another level I think we'll need to see Rozier and Brown up their impact a bit more in the limited mins they are given. Staying between 16-20 for Rozier and maybe being upped to 16-20 for Brown is realistic. They both need to be better playmakers and when they drive get to the line (Rozier) or when getting to the line make your FT's (Brown). Do all that while continuing to limit turnovers, help out  on the glass and defend well across 4 positions (both guard spots Rozier and mostly SF but some PF's in small-ball lineups for Brown) and they will be doing fine in the roles asked of them. 

This team just needs to be healthy all at once together, define some roles a bit more, execute a lot better down the stretch and ADD A REBOUNDER. Accomplish all that and they will gel together into something very scary.

Ram wrote:This was a very informative article I really appreciated reading, so I don't want it to appear that I am bashing the author, but there is one statement I disagreed with: "Brown was supposed to be a seamless fit after he was drafted #3 last summer."


Ummm... where is he pulling that opinion from? Many fans booed him at the draft. Most evaluators said he was a slight reach deserving of the 5th-8th pick and was very raw. His playmaking and outside shooting were criticized (which the author mentioned) as well as his stats at Cal and why he didn't make a bigger impact, like the one Ingram the #2 pick made at Duke. 

That being said, my prediction/hope for the young man this season was that he combine with Rozier to replace what Evan Turner brought last season. Rozier would need to replace Turner's playmaking/assists and D on SG's and Brown more his slashing/driving finishing at the rim and D on SF's while both replaced his overall minutes, rebounding and shooting #'s. 

Turner in 2015-16:

28 mins  10.5 pts  4.9 rebs  4.4 asts  1 stl  2.1 TO's  45/24/83 shooting %'s  13.6 PER 

Brown and Rozier:

R - 18.7 mins  6.5 pts  3.5 rebs  2.0 asts  0.7 stls  0.6 TO's  40/33/73 shooting %'s  13.0 PER
B - 14.4 mins  5.4 pts  2.0 rebs  0.7 asts  0.4 stls  0.7 TO's  44/36/59 shooting %'s  10.4 PER

As you can see, they are mostly combining to replace that role in 5 more mins of floor time. The 3 point shooting is better, turnovers are slightly down and on a per minute basis points, 2 point FG%, steals and rebounds are roughly the same. The defense has been up and down, but almost always above average, which was Turner's MO as well.

Where they fall off is in FT shooting and assists. This is what keeps their PER's down as well. Also the mid-range game with that 'clutch' factor ET had. We're hoping Smart fills that void a bit, as he has shown flashes of being able to do, and the leadership role and 'kinda scary dude nobody wants to tangle with' role has definitely already been filled by Marcus. 

But for the C's to really take things to another level I think we'll need to see Rozier and Brown up their impact a bit more in the limited mins they are given. Staying between 16-20 for Rozier and maybe being upped to 16-20 for Brown is realistic. They both need to be better playmakers and when they drive get to the line (Rozier) or when getting to the line make your FT's (Brown). Do all that while continuing to limit turnovers, help out  on the glass and defend well across 4 positions (both guard spots Rozier and mostly SF but some PF's in small-ball lineups for Brown) and they will be doing fine in the roles asked of them. 

This team just needs to be healthy all at once together, define some roles a bit more, execute a lot better down the stretch and ADD A REBOUNDER. Accomplish all that and they will gel together into something very scary.

Ram,

Yeah, I agree with this.  I'd say add a shooter too.

Regards

For some reason I'm not a big fan of the configuration of this years squad. I certainly thought that they would be playing better together than they are at this point. I know injuries are a big part of that. I am also disappointed that Yabusele and Zizic (and Nader) didn't get an opportunity to make the team and contribute this season. I don't see any way they wouldn't be an improvement over Zeller, Mickey, Young, and/or Green.

I didn't think it would be a problem for Brown and Rozier to replace Turner and for the most part they have. Where they haven't done as well is kind of just jumping out at us and probably drives Turner fans like Rosalie a little bonkers. Very understandable. I thought Brown would be averaging close to 10and5 by the end of the year. He probably would be if he could get the minutes on the floor but he really hasn't earned more than he is getting at this juncture of the season. According to the stats presented, he is trending in the right direction. he needs to be more aggressive, get to the line more. He is so explosive, he will get calls that rookies don't get. But he seriously needs to keep better control of the ball and his body when he drives. I've been saying since summer league that he is PP's replacement on a championship level team. I have no doubts about his ability but have to be more patient as he clearly needs more development time. I fully expect him to be in the top 5 rooks at the end of the season and if that is so, getting picked at #3 is not going to be seen as a reach and in two more years he will be the best player from this draft.

As far as Rozier is concerned he is showing plenty of improvement over last season. I really don't ever see him as a starting pg but as a back up he is very serviceable and a nice complement to IT until he gets traded.

So I may not be real happy yet but I have high hopes for the future. I still think we are top 2 or 3 in the East. I see real improvement coming next season when our stash players make the team. That puts us one all star short given I don't think IT will be here next year unless its as a back up. We have the Brooklyn pick and all of those other picks Danny has been storing. The future is very bright but now I want to see more improvement this season. These guys have to play better and now they are getting back to good health, we will see a push through the all star break and then even more improvement, like last year.

17goingon18

mulcogiseng wrote:For some reason I'm not a big fan of the configuration of this years squad. I certainly thought that they would be playing better together than they are at this point. I know injuries are a big part of that. I am also disappointed that Yabusele and Zizic (and Nader) didn't get an opportunity to make the team and contribute this season. I don't see any way they wouldn't be an improvement over Zeller, Mickey, Young, and/or Green.

I didn't think it would be a problem for Brown and Rozier to replace Turner and for the most part they have. Where they haven't done as well is kind of just jumping out at us and probably drives Turner fans like Rosalie a little bonkers. Very understandable. I thought Brown would be averaging close to 10and5 by the end of the year. He probably would be if he could get the minutes on the floor but he really hasn't earned more than he is getting at this juncture of the season. According to the stats presented, he is trending in the right direction. he needs to be more aggressive, get to the line more. He is so explosive, he will get calls that rookies don't get. But he seriously needs to keep better control of the ball and his body when he drives. I've been saying since summer league that he is PP's replacement on a championship level team. I have no doubts about his ability but have to be more patient as he clearly needs more development time. I fully expect him to be in the top 5 rooks at the end of the season and if that is so, getting picked at #3 is not going to be seen as a reach and in two more years he will be the best player from this draft.

As far as Rozier is concerned he is showing plenty of improvement over last season. I really don't ever see him as a starting pg but as a back up he is very serviceable and a nice complement to IT until he gets traded.

So I may not be real happy yet but I have high hopes for the future. I still think we are top 2 or 3 in the East. I see real improvement coming next season when our stash players make the team. That puts us one all star short given I don't think IT will be here next year unless its as a back up.  We have the Brooklyn pick and all of those other picks Danny has been storing. The future is very bright but now I want to see more improvement this season. These guys have to play better and now they are getting back to good health, we will see a push through the all star break and then even more improvement, like last year.

17goingon18

Great post. I agree completely. 

I see Rozier the same way as you. A very good backup PG who will grow into someone who does all the little things off the bench to drive other teams nuts and help win games. A great at nothing/good at everything kind of guard. 

When he came out of the draft I saw him as a Robert Pack/J.J. Barea type player. A gritty undersized SG with decent size for a PG bench guy who would evolve into a better passer and 3 point shooter than he was in college. Everyone who knew him at L'Ville said he was a worker and DA drafted him in part b/c he whupped up on all the other guards in pre-draft workouts. Guys who were Fresh and Soph in college when he was a junior genuinely seemed to fear him, so by the time he was in his mid 20's and entering his first (relatively cheap) contract extension he would be feared by his NBA peers as well. Like Tony Allen after he won a title in 2008 and started just GOING AT guys like LeBron, Kobe and Wade. Rozier would start doing that to Irving, Wall, Curry and Lowry. 

Both Barea and Pack are career 8-9 point, 3-5 assist, 2 reb, 1 steal combo guards. Pack is the bigger/better defender and dunker, Barea the better 3 point shooter. I think Rozier turns out to be something like that. 

As for our roster being better with Zizic, Yabusele and Nader on it than Zeller, Mickey and Young. But, I can see where the thinking came from. These are the 11th-14th guys (we'll call D. Jackson 15th). There probably would be no harm giving those guys seasoning and adding them next year while 3 players who would likely be somewhere in between barely worse and slightly better could get one more shot to improve and Ainge could maybe even extract some trade value from Young and Zeller. 

Now if we trade Young, Zeller and a 2nd rd pick for Andrew Bogut, I think Ainge may have been right. Especially if Brown keeps growing and makes us all not care that Green never leaves the bench. But if we go into the playoffs with the roster we have right now, I think we'll have wanted to have seen at least Zizic on the roster this year. 

As for how it could have been better handled during free agency? I don't really know if it could. I'd have been cool with Harrison Barnes, Brandon Bass and Zizic all here for the same cost as Amir, Zeller and Jerebko who'd all be gone. But I think the plan was to be after wooing Durant super hard it was him or bust in 2016 and then make moves to have the cap space for Gordon Haywood in 2017. I'd rather have Haywood, but not by that much if it means we could've 100% had Barnes and have only a 15-25% chance to lure Hayward away from the Jazz and the crazy 5/150 they can throw at him.  

I would have preferred a diff former Celtic than Green in Joe Johnson on the same 2/24 deal Amir was given (with the 2nd year a team option). Then keep Zizic as well for the same cash given Zeller and Jerebko. JJ got a 2nd guaranteed year from Utah though that we could not give, so maybe he was never an option. 

RJ Hunter over Green was the right call as well. What's the harm in having 3 first rd picks in a row at the wing position in Young, Hunter and Brown fighting for all of 18-22 mins a night the team would need from 1-2 of them?