Draft Picks Aren’t Forever

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/draft-picks-arent-forever/







FEB. 23, 2017 AT 7:22 PM

Draft Picks Aren’t Forever



The Celtics and Sixers had quiet trade deadlines despite all their assets.


By Kyle Wagner
Kyle Wagner is a senior editor at FiveThirtyEight.


Nerlens Noel drives against the Boston Celtics in 2015. BRIAN BABINEAU / NBAE VIA GETTY IMAGES



The 2017 NBA trade deadline is a reminder of a universal truth: Assets can depreciate.

Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge has assembled the NBA’s most expansive collection of assets, including Brooklyn’s unprotected first round picks in the 2017 and 2018 drafts. Yet after months of rumored trades involving star players such as Carmelo Anthony, Jimmy Butler and Paul George, the Celtics stood pat at the NBA trade deadline.

Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, home of former general manager Sam Hinkie’s Process, the 76ers traded former sixth-overall pick Nerlens Noel to the Dallas Mavericks for Justin Anderson, Andrew Bogut (whom the Sixers are expected to buy out) and a top-18 protected first-round pick that can — and likely will — turn into two second-round picks next season. Anderson has the potential to be a useful player, but it’s a scant return for Noel, who was once a potential No. 1 overall pick but has struggled to find playing time in a crowded Philadelphia frontcourt.

Independently, both scenarios make sense. For Boston, George reportedly made it known that he is intent on joining the Los Angeles Lakers if he can’t contend for a title in Indiana, while Chicago was reportedly hesitant to enter a full rebuild mode by trading Butler. And for Philly, it was reasonable to move Noel given the limited trade market for center Jahlil Okafor, and the necessity of making room for Dario Saric and Ben Simmons, who could return from a foot injury after the All-Star break.

But the teams’ quiet deadlines are also the results of Boston and Philadelphia attempting to press pause at specific moments in their cycles of success: Philly spent years lingering at the shank end of the standings to collect draft picks, and Boston has kept its powder dry, demurring on trades for its most valuable pieces rather than pushing all-in and committing to a specific title window. As Zach Lowe has pointed out, the Celtics have not exactly been risk averse over the years, but they remain picky about which deals they will pull the trigger on. While that sounds good in theory, NBA teams can’t actually stop the passing of time, and the value of their assets has begun to shift under foot.

Both teams seemed to have grander ambitions than holding steady and waiting for next year. The Celtics are the 2-seed in the east, and have a chance, albeit faint, at knocking off the defending-champion Cleveland Cavaliers if injuries to Kevin Love and J.R. Smith linger. But adding a player like George or Butler (or even Carmelo Anthony) is the most realistic path to actually challenging the Cavs and Golden State Warriors for the title, especially since the best prospects in this year’s draft are guards and Boston’s backcourt is already overstuffed.

The 76ers remain a very bad basketball team, but with Joel Embiid looking like the real deal and Simmons expected back soon, the timeline in Philly has finally progressed to the point that it’s time to attempt to convert a glut of assets into a functional roster. While failing to carry through on those ambitions is not a deathblow to either team’s long-term plans, it does serve to remind that both are on the clock.

This is likely a more pivotal moment in the teams’ development for Boston. In the same way a key role player — say, Tristan Thompson — has far more value to a championship contender than a lottery team, draft picks provide different uses to teams at different stages of development.

For any team, a first round pick is a chance to replenish the roster and plug obvious needs with young players on below-market contracts, or trade bait for teams in need of that sort of player. And of course there’s the chance to find a superstar player, either at the very top of the draft, or further down the line with prospects like Kawhi Leonard or Paul George or Rudy Gobert.

But for a team like Boston, with a deep, young roster and few obvious needs besides star talent at the top of the depth chart, cheap, half-decent labor doesn’t really have the same value. Any role that could be filled by a young, cheap draft pick is already being filled by a player fitting that description. Ironically, this makes draft picks less valuable to the sort of team that tends to hoard assets, especially if they can’t trade them away. In the last few years, Boston has not been able to find those trades.

In the 2016 draft, Boston used its three first-round picks on Jaylen Brown (No. 3 overall), Guerschon Yabusele (No. 16) and Ante Žižić (No. 23), and selected five more players in the second round. In 2015, it selected Terry Rozier and R. J. Hunter in the first round and had two additional second-round picks. Those aren’t necessarily bad picks, but as picks become players, their value shifts. Picks made by Boston are made with Boston’s needs in mind, and that makes the resulting players less valuable to other teams than the chance to make those decisions themselves.

The less theoretical problem with amassing draft picks on a team like Boston is that there aren’t many minutes for the draftees to play and develop. That also turned out to be the case for the position-agnostic approach in Philadelphia, where neither Noel nor Okafor has been able to find a consistent role. And as we saw at the deadline, it’s hard to get good value for a young player who doesn’t play very much.

None of this is to say the Celtics or Sixers did anything wrong this deadline. Ignoring the value of future assets in favor of locking down known entities, even if those entities are known to be flawed, is how you get the Knicks trading away their future for Eddy Curry. But the countdown is ticking on the advantages they hold, regardless of whether the teams find the perfect trade or not. So it might be time to begin looking at imperfect deals rather than letting many more assets reach their sell-by dates.




bob


.

I feel that the writer has missed an important point. He says:

"But for a team like Boston, with a deep, young roster and few obvious needs besides star talent at the top of the depth chart, cheap, half-decent labor doesn’t really have the same value. Any role that could be filled by a young, cheap draft pick is already being filled by a player fitting that description."

However, the players that are "already" filling a particular role are going to require big contracts (think AB). By having these draft picks, Danny can maintain quality without breaking the bank. This flexibility could be essential for landing a transcendent star. That is a big deal. Also, the writer seems to ignore the fact that Danny has already acquired a near super-star talent (IT) without really giving up any of his major "assets".

I'm a little disappointed FiveThiryEight wrote such a lazy derivative article.

Shamrock1000 wrote:I feel that the writer has missed an important point. He says:

"But for a team like Boston, with a deep, young roster and few obvious needs besides star talent at the top of the depth chart, cheap, half-decent labor doesn’t really have the same value. Any role that could be filled by a young, cheap draft pick is already being filled by a player fitting that description."

However, the players that are "already" filling a particular role are going to require big contracts (think AB). By having these draft picks, Danny can maintain quality without breaking the bank. This flexibility could be essential for landing a transcendent star. That is a big deal. Also, the writer seems to ignore the fact that Danny has already acquired a near super-star talent (IT) without really giving up any of his major "assets".

I'm a little disappointed FiveThiryEight wrote such a lazy derivative article.

I have to agree with you.  First I do not see the relevancy in comparing Philly and Boston.  Danny has already proved that he knows how to build a championship team. What has Philly done of late?  Basically the author is suggesting that Philly was not able to realize a good return in Noel and Boston will experience a similar situation because they may get stuck with picks and players that cannot be moved without taking a loss.  

He thinks the Celtics should make deals that they may not like.


dboss

the article is spot on....too many draft picks become mostly roster fodder and eventually Europe or D league players.

Hunter, Yabusele and Zicic are perfect examples. No room for Hunter to develop him here, no room on the roster for all the first round draft picks last year. Danny even had to sell two high seconds for Memphis for a future probable late first, delaying the reckoning. all were good moves on draft day, as we had NO room for 3 rookies much less 8.


Danny is choking on all those picks now and at some point he will HAVE to sell them or current players for less than face value...not enough roster spots.

kdp,

There is also something to be said about having a roster that is "too young". There is no question that "young" teams rarely get to do well in a playoff series.

The Cs currently only have one guy who is in his thirties with over half the roster having less than 4 years of NBA experience. Trying to add all of the picks that Ainge has is only going to keep us too "young".

Actually there was room on the roster for all three picks this year but Danny blew it by not giving them the chance to earn their place on the roster. Clearly Yabu and Zizic are better than Mickey or Zeller (and Amir too!) and would have produced more. The biggest problem is that Zizic won't have Amir to play behind next year as he acclimates to NBA play. This is the crucial moment of the rebuild. This is not the time for the faint of heart. Danny got Brown last year and he looks like he will emerge next year and will be all star possible in two years. Ante and Guerschon may have improved more this season by playing overseas but the Celtics need them right now and they are not available. But they will be next year and along with Nader, will give the team a much needed infusion of talent. The lower end of the roster should have been rebuilt this season but alas it wasn't so it will be next year. Amir and Young for Noels and a bag of new balls would have worked fine for me but there is probably a reason I"m not on the Celtics payroll. lol We all get suckered into thinking a deal is going to be made, so much hype and misdirection by Danny and the other GM's of the league, get and keep our expectations high. But the reality is this is currently the second best team in the Conference according to the only stat that counts. We all know that THIS Celtics team can beat any team in the league and may even be able to win a series this year. We wanted bigger and better and got standing Pats. Let's not throw 'the process' under the bus just when it is about to pay off. We are a much better contender right now then we were last year at this time. We don't need no stinkin king in the USA. We need team roundball and it is right there, just over the horizon.

yeah well...it remains to be seen if either of the Euro stasher will be better than anyone on our current roster.

they MAY be better, so far we have no clue.

and IF they are already better than Mickey, Zeller and Amir...then maybe the discussion needs to be had about Danny's ability to gauge talent in todays NBA.

I mean Zeller did NOT need to be resigned and they could have not picked up Amir's guarantee this year, correct?

Like everyone else I want both Yabusele and Zicic to become future NBA all-stars, but right now they are unproven as NBA players at all.

Next year, we'll all see how good they all perhaps.

Perhaps we will, I sure hope so. I've said since last years draft that Danny drafted for need and drafted well. I wish they had had a chance to compete for a spot but it didn't happen. Right, I suggested last year that they not re-sign Amir and Jerebko and didn't give much thot to Zeller. I think I may still have a few "Fire Doc" "Fire Danny" signs around. lol Right now my opinion is that Danny has probably made more mistakes then brilliant decisions but I wouldn't want anyone else in the drivers seat for this team. Danny has taken us out of the dark ages of mediocrity and cap limitations and brought us to today when we can argue about how to criticize him for doing nothing. lol

true

I'm trusting the process, I also would have liked to seen Zizic and Yabu here and I was against resigning Zeller, but I'm okay with where were at. I don't see the acquiring of George or Butler getting us past Cavs or Warriors. I'm trusting Danny will use these lottery picks and draft better than the Lakers did the last 2 years. I would rather have the top guard in the draft this year or at worst elite wing Josh Jackson and a chance for a really good big next year than having George as a rental or Butler this year.

What is it with this fascination for the draft that centers on the expectancy of high success for a bunch of 19 and 20 year olds just a year or 2 removed from high school. The percentage that ever achieve elite status is very low. When possible - the safest way to obtain an elite player is through free agency or via a trade - acquiring only those players that already are considered elite. The draft is "fools gold " by comparison.

swish

swish wrote:What is it with this fascination for the draft that centers on the expectancy of high success for a bunch of 19 and 20 year olds just a year or 2 removed from high school. The percentage that ever achieve elite status is very low. When possible -  the safest way to obtain an elite player is through free agency or via a trade - acquiring only those players that already are considered elite.  The draft is "fools gold " by comparison.

 swish

I think all the players enter the league through the draft, and when does this franchise ever get picks this high in the draft again?

Russell, Sam Jones, Havlicek, Cowens, Bird, McHale, Pierce all came through the draft. I'm happy with Jaylen Brown and where I think he will be in a few years. I don't think George or Butler are HoF players that will take us to the top, I'd rather roll with the picks.

Name the scenario swish, who was out there that you would have wanted to make a deal/acquire with that pick or those picks?

cowens/oldschool wrote:

swish wrote:What is it with this fascination for the draft that centers on the expectancy of high success for a bunch of 19 and 20 year olds just a year or 2 removed from high school. The percentage that ever achieve elite status is very low. When possible -  the safest way to obtain an elite player is through free agency or via a trade - acquiring only those players that already are considered elite.  The draft is "fools gold " by comparison.

 swish

I think all the players enter the league through the draft, and when does this franchise ever get picks this high in the draft again?

Russell, Sam Jones, Havlicek, Cowens, Bird, McHale, Pierce all came through the draft. I'm happy with Jaylen Brown and where I think he will be in a few years. I don't think George or Butler are HoF players that will take us to the top, I'd rather roll with the picks.

Name the scenario swish, who was out there that you would have wanted to make a deal/acquire with that pick or those picks?

cowens

I'm in no position to play GENERAL MANAGER simply because I don't have the inside info needed to past judgement on all the issues that affect a players desirability. But I do have a minimum standard of excellence that i expect - at least 2 years selected as all NBA.
Now back to the draft. Consider The below facts.

The Celts will only have a 25% chance of landing the #1 pick on lottery night.
And since The Celtics will be having 1 of the top 4 picks I will only comment on the degree of success in past drafts for the top 4 picks.
And here is how those top 4 picks have succeeded during the 20 years from 1980 through 1999 .
Draft picks that went on to be selected all NBA at least 2 times.
Number 1 pick - 9 picks in 20 years.
Number 2 pick - 5 picks in 20 years
Number 3 pick - 5 picks in 20 years
Number 4 pick - 3 picks in 20 years

Special note: I selected 2 all nba selections because in the last 37 years the league champ has been led in 36 of those years by at least 1 player that has been all nba at least 2 times. Its also important to note that there have been 4449 players in the history of the nba - and only 142 have managed to make all nba at least 2 times. ( 3.2% ).

The Celtics are at the point now where they are just that 1 elite player away from having a serious chance at a ring. Don't fiddle away the years Gambling on the lottery (draft). The surer and quicker solution is via free agency or the trade route should the chance arise to grab an elite player.

swish

The Celtics are not wining a banner until that address the rebounding woes. They could add the best non center elite player in the NBA and they would not win

The other issue is their style of play which basically does not enbrace any measure of a post offense option. So guys like Zeller are irrelavant. I think they got it all wrong.

Here is a history of the top 4 picks over the last 10 years (we will draft no lower than 4th, so no need to look deeper than 4th).  The qualifiers are my opinions, feel free to disagree.  We should keep in mind that the 2 most recent draftees should be taken with a grain of salt, since they are only rookies and sophomores and might need another year or even two to blossom.  So, the further down the list you go, the older the player and the tougher expectations become. As you can see, in my opinion, it is a mixed bag. Even the #1 pick in the draft, which you would think should be a lead-pipe cinch, has two busts. And #2!? Much worse.

A question to be answered by NYCelt and other board members who follow college sports is "how do the top 4 prospects in this year's draft compare to these previous drafts?"  I hear about how great this draft is, but are there any potentially transcendent players in it, or is it just deep and balanced, meaning that a #6 pick is about as good as a #3?


#1 Picks, last 10 drafts

Ben Simmons - incomplete
Karl-Anthony Towns - Above Expectations
Andrew Wiggins - Above Expectations.  Is averaging over 23ppg this year.
Anthony Bennett - Way the f--k Below Expectations.  El Busto.
Anthony Davis - Above Expectations.  WAY above.  One of the top 2 or 3 front court players in the league.
Kyrie Irving - Above Expectations.  One of the top guards in the league.
John Wall - Above Expectations.  A top guard.
Blake Griffin - Above Expectations.  An All-Star.
Derrick Rose - Above Expectations for first few years, has declined in recent years to where he is maybe meeting them now.
Greg Oden - Below Expectations.  El Busto

#2 Picks, last 10 drafts

Brandon Ingram - Below Expectations
D'Angelo Russell - Below Expectations
Jabari Parker - Above Expectations.  Averaging 20ppg this season.
Victor Oladipo - Meeting Expectations.  A starter on a good team, not a great player but one you'd like to have
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - Below Expectations.  Not a good player on a not very good team.
Derrick Williams - Below Expectations.  A journeyman on his 5th team.
Evan Turner -  Below Expectations.  Journeyman, Jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none.
Hashem Thabeet - Below Expectations.  El Busto #2
Michael Beasley - Below Expectations.  An El Busto for a #2 pick.
Kevin Durant - Above Expectations.


#3 Picks, last 10 drafts

Jaylen Brown - Meeting Expectations.  Just starting to get minutes now because he is on a non-lottery team.  /mpg stats are good.
Jahlil Okafor - Meeting Expectations.  But just barely.  He is becoming known as a weak defender and has no outside offense.
Joel Embiid - Above Expectations.  Way above.  He is a transcendental player.  Would have been picked even higher if but for his injury.
Otto Porter - Meeting Expectations.  The #3 player on a team with a #1 player and #3 pick.
Bradley Beal - Meeting Expectations.  Maybe even Above.  He is a VERY good player on a good team.  
Enes Kanter - Meeting Expectations.  Maybe even Below.  He is a back up center now, behind #12 pick Steven Adams.
Derrick Favors - Meeting Expectations.  A good, solid player on a good team.  Not great.
James Harden - Above Expectations.  Franchise player and MVP candidate
OJ Mayo - Below Expectations.  A good player, never great, for a few years, but is out of the league now.
Al Horford - Meeting Expectations, has never exceeded them.  4x All-Star.  


#4 Picks, last 10 drafts

Dragan Bender - below expectations prior to injury
Kristaps Porzingis - Above Expectations.  His stats aren't that great but NYK are building around him and not Melo.  That says something.
Aaron Gordon - Below Expectations.  A nice player, but not a franchise cornerstone and his team sucks.  He is not elevating them.
Cody Zeller - Below Expectations.  A mediocre center on a mediocre team.
Dion Waiters - Below Expectations.  Journeyman on his 3rd team, in Miami, which sucks.
Tristan Thompson - Meeting Expectations.  The starting "center" on an excellent team.  Knows his role and plays it perfectly.
Wesley Johnson - Below Expectations.  On his 4th team, only averaging 13mpg.
Tyreke Evans - Below Expectations.  Pingponging between Sacto and NOP.
Russell Westbrook - Above Expectations.  Way Above.  MVP candidate.
Mike Conley - Meeting Expectations.  Finally, he is a very good guard but he was a slow builder.



bob


.

swish we will never have an opportunity to get 2 picks this high again in a long long time, I prefer to take this chance as a great opportunity to build the team thru the draft on a rookie friendly contract. Danny and you could not come up with any acceptable trade scenarios that would make the team better faster, so here we are. Its not good to do a trade just to do a trade either.

bobheckler wrote:Here is a history of the top 4 picks over the last 10 years (we will draft no lower than 4th, so no need to look deeper than 4th).  The qualifiers are my opinions, feel free to disagree.  We should keep in mind that the 2 most recent draftees should be taken with a grain of salt, since they are only rookies and sophomores and might need another year or even two to blossom.  So, the further down the list you go, the older the player and the tougher expectations become.  As you can see, in my opinion, it is a mixed bag.  Even the #1 pick in the draft, which you would think should be a lead-pipe cinch, has two busts.  And #2!?  Much worse.

A question to be answered by NYCelt and other board members who follow college sports is "how do the top 4 prospects in this year's draft compare to these previous drafts?"  I hear about how great this draft is, but are there any potentially transcendent players in it, or is it just deep and balanced, meaning that a #6 pick is about as good as a #3?


#1 Picks, last 10 drafts

Ben Simmons - incomplete
Karl-Anthony Towns - Above Expectations
Andrew Wiggins - Above Expectations.  Is averaging over 23ppg this year.
Anthony Bennett - Way the f--k Below Expectations.  El Busto.
Anthony Davis - Above Expectations.  WAY above.  One of the top 2 or 3 front court players in the league.
Kyrie Irving - Above Expectations.  One of the top guards in the league.
John Wall - Above Expectations.  A top guard.
Blake Griffin - Above Expectations.  An All-Star.
Derrick Rose - Above Expectations for first few years, has declined in recent years to where he is maybe meeting them now.
Greg Oden - Below Expectations.  El Busto

#2 Picks, last 10 drafts

Brandon Ingram - Below Expectations
D'Angelo Russell - Below Expectations
Jabari Parker - Above Expectations.  Averaging 20ppg this season.
Victor Oladipo - Meeting Expectations.  A starter on a good team, not a great player but one you'd like to have
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - Below Expectations.  Not a good player on a not very good team.
Derrick Williams - Below Expectations.  A journeyman on his 5th team.
Evan Turner -  Below Expectations.  Journeyman, Jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none.
Hashem Thabeet - Below Expectations.  El Busto #2
Michael Beasley - Below Expectations.  An El Busto for a #2 pick.
Kevin Durant - Above Expectations.


#3 Picks, last 10 drafts

Jaylen Brown - Meeting Expectations.  Just starting to get minutes now because he is on a non-lottery team.  /mpg stats are good.
Jahlil Okafor - Meeting Expectations.  But just barely.  He is becoming known as a weak defender and has no outside offense.
Joel Embiid - Above Expectations.  Way above.  He is a transcendental player.  Would have been picked even higher if but for his injury.
Otto Porter - Meeting Expectations.  The #3 player on a team with a #1 player and #3 pick.
Bradley Beal - Meeting Expectations.  Maybe even Above.  He is a VERY good player on a good team.  
Enes Kanter - Meeting Expectations.  Maybe even Below.  He is a back up center now, behind #12 pick Steven Adams.
Derrick Favors - Meeting Expectations.  A good, solid player on a good team.  Not great.
James Harden - Above Expectations.  Franchise player and MVP candidate
OJ Mayo - Below Expectations.  A good player, never great, for a few years, but is out of the league now.
Al Horford - Meeting Expectations, has never exceeded them.  4x All-Star.  


#4 Picks, last 10 drafts

Dragan Bender - below expectations prior to injury
Kristaps Porzingis - Above Expectations.  His stats aren't that great but NYK are building around him and not Melo.  That says something.
Aaron Gordon - Below Expectations.  A nice player, but not a franchise cornerstone and his team sucks.  He is not elevating them.
Cody Zeller - Below Expectations.  A mediocre center on a mediocre team.
Dion Waiters - Below Expectations.  Journeyman on his 3rd team, in Miami, which sucks.
Tristan Thompson - Meeting Expectations.  The starting "center" on an excellent team.  Knows his role and plays it perfectly.
Wesley Johnson - Below Expectations.  On his 4th team, only averaging 13mpg.
Tyreke Evans - Below Expectations.  Pingponging between Sacto and NOP.
Russell Westbrook - Above Expectations.  Way Above.  MVP candidate.
Mike Conley - Meeting Expectations.  Finally, he is a very good guard but he was a slow builder.



bob


.

bob

I didn't evaluate the last 16 years because many of the players are still active and I wanted to have the advantage of viewing their entire career. My requirement of at least 2 years as an all nba player is also very restricting.In the history of the game only 3% of the players reached that lofty goal - but its that high caliber type of player that is needed on a roster to put a team in the hunt for a ring. About 5 or 6 teams a year have one of these elite players and only once in the last 37 years has a team without one won a championship. The Celts do not have one at this time.

swish

bobheckler wrote:Here is a history of the top 4 picks over the last 10 years (we will draft no lower than 4th, so no need to look deeper than 4th).  The qualifiers are my opinions, feel free to disagree.  We should keep in mind that the 2 most recent draftees should be taken with a grain of salt, since they are only rookies and sophomores and might need another year or even two to blossom.  So, the further down the list you go, the older the player and the tougher expectations become.  As you can see, in my opinion, it is a mixed bag.  Even the #1 pick in the draft, which you would think should be a lead-pipe cinch, has two busts.  And #2!?  Much worse.

A question to be answered by NYCelt and other board members who follow college sports is "how do the top 4 prospects in this year's draft compare to these previous drafts?"  I hear about how great this draft is, but are there any potentially transcendent players in it, or is it just deep and balanced, meaning that a #6 pick is about as good as a #3?


#1 Picks, last 10 drafts

Ben Simmons - incomplete
Karl-Anthony Towns - Above Expectations
Andrew Wiggins - Above Expectations.  Is averaging over 23ppg this year.
Anthony Bennett - Way the f--k Below Expectations.  El Busto.
Anthony Davis - Above Expectations.  WAY above.  One of the top 2 or 3 front court players in the league.
Kyrie Irving - Above Expectations.  One of the top guards in the league.
John Wall - Above Expectations.  A top guard.
Blake Griffin - Above Expectations.  An All-Star.
Derrick Rose - Above Expectations for first few years, has declined in recent years to where he is maybe meeting them now.
Greg Oden - Below Expectations.  El Busto

#2 Picks, last 10 drafts

Brandon Ingram - Below Expectations
D'Angelo Russell - Below Expectations
Jabari Parker - Above Expectations.  Averaging 20ppg this season.
Victor Oladipo - Meeting Expectations.  A starter on a good team, not a great player but one you'd like to have
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist - Below Expectations.  Not a good player on a not very good team.
Derrick Williams - Below Expectations.  A journeyman on his 5th team.
Evan Turner -  Below Expectations.  Journeyman, Jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none.
Hashem Thabeet - Below Expectations.  El Busto #2
Michael Beasley - Below Expectations.  An El Busto for a #2 pick.
Kevin Durant - Above Expectations.


#3 Picks, last 10 drafts

Jaylen Brown - Meeting Expectations.  Just starting to get minutes now because he is on a non-lottery team.  /mpg stats are good.
Jahlil Okafor - Meeting Expectations.  But just barely.  He is becoming known as a weak defender and has no outside offense.
Joel Embiid - Above Expectations.  Way above.  He is a transcendental player.  Would have been picked even higher if but for his injury.
Otto Porter - Meeting Expectations.  The #3 player on a team with a #1 player and #3 pick.
Bradley Beal - Meeting Expectations.  Maybe even Above.  He is a VERY good player on a good team.  
Enes Kanter - Meeting Expectations.  Maybe even Below.  He is a back up center now, behind #12 pick Steven Adams.
Derrick Favors - Meeting Expectations.  A good, solid player on a good team.  Not great.
James Harden - Above Expectations.  Franchise player and MVP candidate
OJ Mayo - Below Expectations.  A good player, never great, for a few years, but is out of the league now.
Al Horford - Meeting Expectations, has never exceeded them.  4x All-Star.  


#4 Picks, last 10 drafts

Dragan Bender - below expectations prior to injury
Kristaps Porzingis - Above Expectations.  His stats aren't that great but NYK are building around him and not Melo.  That says something.
Aaron Gordon - Below Expectations.  A nice player, but not a franchise cornerstone and his team sucks.  He is not elevating them.
Cody Zeller - Below Expectations.  A mediocre center on a mediocre team.
Dion Waiters - Below Expectations.  Journeyman on his 3rd team, in Miami, which sucks.
Tristan Thompson - Meeting Expectations.  The starting "center" on an excellent team.  Knows his role and plays it perfectly.
Wesley Johnson - Below Expectations.  On his 4th team, only averaging 13mpg.
Tyreke Evans - Below Expectations.  Pingponging between Sacto and NOP.
Russell Westbrook - Above Expectations.  Way Above.  MVP candidate.
Mike Conley - Meeting Expectations.  Finally, he is a very good guard but he was a slow builder.



bob


.

great research bob, seeing the list of these players confirms my belief that keeping these high lottery picks is the best way going forward for this franchise. To give up the possible impact of such a high pick and parts of our young core for a PG or JB when we have a solid improving tandem of Crowder and Jaylen there already makes no sense to me.

Bob,

yeesh!  I thought you were in Thailand.  Great work here, but more than I have enough focus for, even sitting in my own home.

I'm not certain I can give an answer that would stack up to the effort you put into this draft list.  I will say that by looking through the list, this years generally expected top 4 to 6 draft picks would all have had a shot at going top 3 in any of the past four years drafts.

Comparing draft years and classes to me is very much like comparing players across eras.  Adding in the unknowns and potential expectations of comparing the current batch to past drafts is even a step harder.

I do believe the potential in this years top six or so expected draftees appears to be higher than at any time over the past decade, or, at least in my limited memory (the mind is the second thing to go, I can't remember the first).  It is very heavily populated by guards, many of whom should be able to handle either guard spot in the NBA.  Fultz, and Ball, two college point guards, look like they would make equally outstanding NBA 2-guards.  Wings look super, especially Tatum and  Josh Jackson, providing Jackson's recent legal escapades are a one-off thing.  I mention Josh, so as not to confuse him with UNC's Justin Jackson, who could go top dozen or so.  Throw Smith (PG), Monk (SG), Isaac (F, not ship's bartender), and Fox (PG)into the mix.  I personally think all of these could be NBA contributors to a fair degree by this time next year.  Williams and Patton, arguably this year's best two big men, might not go top 10 this year.

With the picks we have this year, I think the draft is deep enough that we can find our missing shooter, and possibly continue the search for a legit defense oriented young big.

Interesting enough, I have seen at least one mock draft now projecting us to get the first pick and take Josh Jackson.  I would be good with that one, too.

Regards

cowens/oldschool wrote:

I think all the players enter the league through the draft, and when does this franchise ever get picks this high in the draft again?

Russell, Sam Jones, Havlicek, Cowens, Bird, McHale, Pierce all came through the draft.

Cow,

Thank you for mentioning this.  I think these may be some of the all-time most forgotten facts.

Regards

NYCelt wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

I think all the players enter the league through the draft, and when does this franchise ever get picks this high in the draft again?

Russell, Sam Jones, Havlicek, Cowens, Bird, McHale, Pierce all came through the draft.

Cow,

Thank you for mentioning this.  I think these may be some of the all-time most forgotten facts.

Regards

Cow and NYCelt,

Unrestricted free agency did not begin in the NBA until the ratification of the then-new CBA in July, 1988 (thank Tom Chambers).  So, the first 4 names in the above list were not free to leave for other pastures even if they wanted to.  Larry Bird's career ran from the 1979 season through 1992, so unrestricted free agency was not an option for almost 3/4 of his career.  McHale's career ran from 1980-1993, so UFA was unavailable for him for 2/3 of his career.  Only Paul Pierce, of all those names, had UFA throughout his career.  Would they have left if they could have?  Probably not, but what if they wanted more money than Red was willing to pay them?  Suppose Danny and Wyc tried to lowball Pierce when his contract was up for renewal instead of paying him what other teams would have offered him?  Pierce embraced Boston, eventually, but suppose he had the option, as an unrestricted free agent, early in his career before Bahston burned its way into his heart and his life, to leave?

The NBA is a very different business now.  Agents are dangling HUGE sums of money in front of them and the players have more choices than they did when 6 out of those 7 Celtics played.



bob


.

NYCelt wrote:Bob,

yeesh!  I thought you were in Thailand.  Great work here, but more than I have enough focus for, even sitting in my own home.

I'm not certain I can give an answer that would stack up to the effort you put into this draft list.  I will say that by looking through the list, this years generally expected top 4 to 6 draft picks would all have had a shot at going top 3 in any of the past four years drafts.

Comparing draft years and classes to me is very much like comparing players across eras.  Adding in the unknowns and potential expectations of comparing the current batch to past drafts is even a step harder.

I do believe the potential in this years top six or so expected draftees appears to be higher than at any time over the past decade, or, at least in my limited memory (the mind is the second thing to go, I can't remember the first).  It is very heavily populated by guards, many of whom should be able to handle either guard spot in the NBA.  Fultz, and Ball, two college point guards, look like they would make equally outstanding NBA 2-guards.  Wings look super, especially Tatum and  Josh Jackson, providing Jackson's recent legal escapades are a one-off thing.  I mention Josh, so as not to confuse him with UNC's Justin Jackson, who could go top dozen or so.  Throw Smith (PG), Monk (SG), Isaac (F, not ship's bartender), and Fox (PG)into the mix.  I personally think all of these could be NBA contributors to a fair degree by this time next year.  Williams and Patton, arguably this year's best two big men, might not go top 10 this year.

With the picks we have this year, I think the draft is deep enough that we can find our missing shooter, and possibly continue the search for a legit defense oriented young big.

Interesting enough, I have seen at least one mock draft now projecting us to get the first pick and take Josh Jackson.  I would be good with that one, too.

Regards

NYCelt,

I am in Thailand, Bangkok to be precise. They have internet here too.

And bagels (crappy, rack-steamed ones that are soft as sponges, not boiled) with lox (pretty good, but that's because it's imported).


bob


.

Bob,

It's not that I wouldn't think there was Thai internet availability, it's that I wouldn't work that hard on anything when I'm traveling. Sometimes not when I'm home!

I'm saying I don't have the kind of focus you displayed on this topic. Last time I was away for a week, I completely unplugged.

Regards

Bob, and Cow,

What I liked about Cowens' statement was that he correctly pointed out how most players land in the NBA.

It's not the matter of free-agency, it's a point about the value of the draft I've always maintained.  My mantra has always been that the draft is how the NBA is built.  You get some clunkers, sure.  And you get everyone else, including HOFers, too.  Trades fail, free agent signings fail, so why should draft picks all achieve a perfect rating? None of these methods have 100% precision. I've taken that stand for as long as I can remember.

I once debated Sam on this point in three different languages, here in this forum.  Of course, he answered in French, using merde as the description for picks he didn't like as a counterpoint to my pointing out great picks.

Regards

NYCelt wrote:Bob,

It's not that I wouldn't think there was Thai internet availability, it's that I wouldn't work that hard on anything when I'm traveling.  Sometimes not when I'm home!

I'm saying I don't have the kind of focus you displayed on this topic.  Last time I was away for a week, I completely unplugged.

Regards

NYCelt,

I'm here for 19 days, not 7. I unplugged, and partly unhinged, last night.


bob


.