NBA Rookie of the Year

If not Jalen, who?

Here are his stats - 16.2 mpg, .337 3 point %, .443 fg%, .702 Free throw %, 2,7 rebounds pg, 0.7 assists pg, 6.1 ppg

Ingram's stats - 28.2 mpg, .295 3 point %, /371 FG%, . 639 free throw %, 4.1 rpg, 2.0 assists pg, 8.2 ppg

Jalen only plays 58% as much as Ingram, and he's cracking his way into a very good starting lineup on one of the five best teams in basketball.
Ingram plays on an inferior team.

Jalen's numbers get better and better as the season progresses.

worcester wrote:If not Jalen, who?

Here are his stats - 16.2 mpg, .337 3 point %, .443 fg%, .702 Free throw %, 2,7 rebounds pg, 0.7 assists pg, 6.1 ppg

Ingram's stats -      28.2 mpg, .295 3 point %, /371 FG%, . 639 free throw %, 4.1 rpg, 2.0 assists pg, 8.2 ppg

Jalen only plays 58% as much as Ingram, and he's cracking his way into a very good starting lineup on one of the five best teams in basketball.
Ingram plays on an inferior team.

Jalen's numbers get better and better as the season progresses.

Embiid, Saric or Brogdon.

tjmakz wrote:

worcester wrote:If not Jalen, who?

Here are his stats - 16.2 mpg, .337 3 point %, .443 fg%, .702 Free throw %, 2,7 rebounds pg, 0.7 assists pg, 6.1 ppg

Ingram's stats -      28.2 mpg, .295 3 point %, /371 FG%, . 639 free throw %, 4.1 rpg, 2.0 assists pg, 8.2 ppg

Jalen only plays 58% as much as Ingram, and he's cracking his way into a very good starting lineup on one of the five best teams in basketball.
Ingram plays on an inferior team.

Jalen's numbers get better and better as the season progresses.

Embiid, Saric or Brogdon.

Embiid's bid might have just faded with his recent season-ending injury.  There's too much of the season left to just "give it to him" and he only played in 31 games this year and never in back-to-backs.  I could see where it is hard to give an award to a part-time player.

Saric has a real shot, no pun intended, but his numbers aren't that much better than Brown's on a /minute basis and Saric is on a still, poor team.  In fact, Brown's fg% for 2s and 3s are better than Saric's and Brown might get some credit for being on the 2nd best team in the EC.  His defense is much worse than Brown's but he is probably going to get even more minutes with Embiid's minutes becoming available and Noel gone and he'll gain the visibility that comes with those minutes.  On the other hand, if the Sixers start to slide with Embiid out that won't make Saric's contributions look as valuable.

Brogdon's points/minute are also comparable to Brown's, his 3pt fg% is much higher but his rebounding is much lower and Milwaukee is struggling too.  

Neither the Sixers nor the Bucks are going to the playoffs.  The Bucks, in particular, are being seen as significant underachievers this year.  That might hurt Brogdon's chances.  The Celtics are going to the playoffs, they are a good team and Brown is starting to get crunch time minutes.


bob


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The only other Celtic to be ROY was the Tommygun who avg 16.2 and 9.8

Yes, and Tommy took ROY over Bill Russell!!!

When comparing their numbers be sure to take into consideration the caliber of the players that they faced while compiling those numbers.

  How they ranked on their team, based on minutes played per game.

  Ingram - 28 minutes - 2nd on team
  Brogdon - 25 minutes - 5th on team
  Saric -  25 minutes - 6th on team
  Brown - 16 minutes - 10 on team

 Brogdon for ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - best numbers vs starter caliber players.

 swish

Au contraire Swish. Jalen has his best games against the best teams (the stats bear that out), and his Thursday night ratings are his very best. That's when the Celts are on TNT. He did much better with Avery out of the lineup because he got a chance to play more and with the starters. Also, the numbers are almost all offensive numbers. None of the other rookies is as good on D. Notice that Brad had Jalen up against LeBron last night. That says loads about the confidence the Celts have on his defense. Why s defense so overlooked in teh NBA when assessing a player's worth?

If we knew then what we know now isn't it amazing that Philly had probably the 3 best candidates in Saric, Embiid and Simmons? They will be good next year if they can get healthy.

It is much more important to me that Jaylen be viewed as the best of his draft class in five years but he is starting to make a case for consideration. One of the funner things for me is seeing how he is making steady incremental process and then when you look back even a few weeks or a month he is such a better player. with still such a long way to go

I wonder if Embiid or Simmons will ever be healthy enough to play a full NBA season. Embiid is such a force, but not when he's off the court. Too bad for him.

A teams win/loss record is not much of a factor at all in deciding who wins the Rookie of the Year.
How many games has Brown really helped Boston to win? Very few.
Brown very easily could be putting up the same numbers this year with the Lakers, Suns or 76ers.

ROY Winners:
2016 - Towns - 29 win team
2015 - Wiggins - 16 win team
2014 - Carter Williams - 19 win team
2013 - Lilliard - 33 win team
2012 - Irving - 21 win team

TJ, your stats show that the ROY's have come recently from teams that did not do very well, ergo they were not stocked with good players, ergo the ROY got significant time on the court because he did not have to elbow aside really good players. Jalen has had to displace Jae and Avery and to some extant Marcus (and to a lesser extent Gerald Green and James Young) to get time on the court. Had Jalen played for the Lakers he would have seen more minutes earlier. As his minutes have increased, his game has improved.

worcester wrote:Au contraire Swish. Jalen has his best games against the best teams (the stats bear that out), and his Thursday night ratings are his very best. That's when the Celts are on TNT. He did much better with Avery out of the lineup because he got a chance to play more and with the starters. Also, the numbers are almost all offensive numbers. None of the other rookies is as good on D. Notice that Brad had Jalen up against LeBron last night. That says loads about the confidence the Celts have on his defense. Why s defense so overlooked in teh NBA when assessing a player's worth?

0

And who has played the most games of 25 minutes or more against the better teams -  say for example, that have played .500 ball or better this year?  

 Brown - 3 of his 57 games. - = .053 % ,,,,  Only 9 of his 57 games saw him playing 25 minutes or more. =.158%
 Brogdon - 16 of 59 games. - = .271 % ,,,,   played 25 minutes or more in 30 games of total of 59. = .508%

 swish

Swish, that's because the Celts are a much better team, and it's much harder for a rookie to get court time on a contender. Brown is in a unique situation, because rarely do #3 picks wind up on a top flight team. next year we may have Marcelle Fultz, and even he may be struggling to get minutes. That said, Brogdon has made the very most of his opportunities. Tp his credit, he's very good on both ends of the court, like Jalen, and he will probably get ROY, although I think Jalen is a much better prospect long term. Consider that Jalen is 20 and Brogdon 24. Big diff. Brogdon may not have much m,ore upside. The sky's the limit for Jalen.

worcester wrote:TJ, your stats show that the ROY's have come recently from teams that did not do very well, ergo they were not stocked with good players, ergo the ROY got significant time on the court because he did not have to elbow aside really good players. Jalen has had to displace Jae and Avery and to some extant Marcus (and to a lesser extent Gerald Green and James Young) to get time on the court. Had Jalen played for the Lakers he would have seen more minutes earlier. As his minutes have increased, his game has improved.

There's many ways to think of this.
Brown could be benefitted because he's not the focus of a team's defense because there's many Celtics players better than him.
When Towns and Wiggins won the ROY, they were the focus of a team's defense.

If Brown wasn't on the Celtics, I doubt anyone here would bring up Brown's name in the ROY discussion.

worcester wrote:Swish, that's because the Celts are a much better team, and it's much harder for a rookie to get court time on a contender. Brown is in a unique situation, because rarely do #3 picks wind up on a top flight team. next year we may have Marcelle Fultz, and even he may be struggling to get minutes.  That said, Brogdon has made the very most of his opportunities. Tp his credit, he's very good on both ends of the court, like Jalen, and he will probably get ROY, although I think Jalen is a much better prospect long term. Consider that Jalen is 20 and Brogdon 24. Big diff. Brogdon may not have much m,ore upside. The sky's the limit for Jalen.

I agree with your opinion as to why Brogdon has the better numbers and that Brown has the greater upside - But the rookie of the year award will probably go to the player with the best overall stat line.

swish

You're right Swish. Since Brogdon also plays serious D, I'm not upset about that.

Chris Forsberg @ESPNForsberg
about 1 hour ago
Boston’s Jaylen Brown nominated for rookie of the month in February. Philadelphia's Dario Saric wins the award in East.
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bob

Jalen is 13th in scoring among rookies since I guess that stat is so damn important

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/avgPoints/position/rookies

However the 12 players ahead of him all play for DOG teams.

Jalen has the potential to become an outstanding player. Over the summer he will get stronger and also work on his jump shooting mechanics which does look better than earlier in the year and lastly his ball handling skills.

From a pure talent level I think he could end up being the best player that came out of the 2016 draft. Certainly a solid #3 pick with multi positional flexibility.

dboss

dboss wrote:Jalen is 13th in scoring among rookies since I guess that stat is so damn important

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/avgPoints/position/rookies

However the 12 players ahead of him all play for DOG teams.

Jalen has the potential to become an outstanding player.  Over the summer he will get stronger and also work on his jump shooting mechanics which does look better than earlier in the year and lastly his ball handling skills.

From a pure talent level I think he could end up being the best player that came out of the 2016 draft.  Certainly a solid #3 pick with multi positional flexibility.

dboss

dboss,

Nice, thanks, but Brown is #16 in points/48, not #13.

If you click on the 'mpg' column header to sort these rookies by minutes played you see that Jaylen Brown is #20 in minutes played.  So, he is #16 in points/48 but he is playing fewer minutes.  That's efficient production/minute.  Furthermore, he is #5 in fg%.  Brogdon is .001% ahead of him in 4th, so almost nothing, a statistical rounding.  

Let's face it:  if they don't care that Joel Embiid only played 35% of a season, then he is the runaway favorite.  If he is disqualified for not playing enough minutes, and he has only played 786 and he isn't going to play any more, then Brogdon is in good shape because he is playing more minutes on a poor team and shooting well from 3 but Brown is hot on his heels.  If Milwaukee does not make the playoffs then Brown has a chance.

But let's be clear here, if Malcolm Brogdon wins ROY it is because of his 3pt shooting AND ONLY because of his 3pt shooting.  He is not a good rebounder (2.6/game, 26mpg, 3.6/36mpg).  

Nor, apparently, is a he a good defender.  Jaylen is #29 in the league in defensive fg%.  In the league.  Joel Embiid is in the middle of the next page, so call it between #51-#100.  Brogdon is in the lowest 25%.  This might help to explain why the Bucks are not a playoff team currently despite Brogdon getting 26mpg.  

http://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-overall/#!?sort=D_FG_PCT&dir=-1



bob


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well bob that confirms my eye test that Jaylen is a very good defender

I do not expect JB to get rookie of the year honors.

I think he is 2 years away from starting at the 2 or the 3.  In addition to working on his mechanics, he will also need to execute off the ball movement and perfect off the screen catch and shoot opportunities.    

Yep... Danny got a good one.

dboss