The blame game - offense or defense

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The blame game - offense or defense

Post by swish on Fri Apr 07, 2017 3:44 pm

Or perhaps both equally.
 League - Points per game average - 105.6              
 Celtics - Points per game ave - offense - 107.7 = plus 2.1 points
 Celtics - points per game ave - defense - 105.4 = plus 0.2 points


            Margin of victory (MOV)
  2016 17 - Celtics 2.3 points per game
  Since the 1979-80 season (37 years) the only league champ with a lower MOV was the 1994-95 Rockets with a MOV OF 2.12. The champs MOV average for those years is 6.84  points per game.

   Some serious roster upgrading is in order for this summer if there is going to be any major improvement in the MOV.

     swish


Last edited by swish on Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:28 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : clarification - changed wording from league to champ)

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Re: The blame game - offense or defense

Post by wideclyde on Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:17 am

Swish,

Nice post and it should get some good responses.

Our offense has been much better this season even with all of the injuries, in my opinion. But, our defense has not been anywhere as near what it was last season.

With Horford as the only addition to the top ten player rotation, it would seem easy to blame him, I guess, but he is not a terrible defender (although not the rim protecting, interior rebounding center that we still so desperately need) so that would be a shallow way out.

"Something" has been missing for most of this season on defense. Far, far too many games of giving up over 100 points even in wins. If our team defense had been equal to the 2016 season we would likely have 60+ wins, first place in the east and a real threat to win #18.

Interested to see what others think.

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Re: The blame game - offense or defense

Post by swish on Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:53 am

wideclyde wrote:Swish,

Nice post and it should get some good responses.

Our offense has been much better this season even with all of the injuries, in my opinion.  But, our defense has not been anywhere as near what it was last season.  

With Horford as the only addition to the top ten player rotation, it would seem easy to blame him, I guess, but he is not a terrible defender (although not the rim protecting, interior rebounding center that we still so desperately need) so that would be a shallow way out.  

"Something" has been missing for most of this season on defense. Far, far too many games of giving up over 100 points even in wins.  If our team defense had been equal to the 2016 season we would likely have 60+ wins, first place in the east and a real threat to win #18.

Interested to see what others think.

clyde
Here are the numbers for 2015-16

League - points per game average = 102.7
Celtics - points per game average - offense - 105.7 = plus 3.0
Celtics - points per game average - defense - 102.5 = plus 0.2

Margin of victory (MOV)
2015-16 - Celtics - 3.2 points per game

The numbers say that its the offense that has slipped this year.

swish

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Re: The blame game - offense or defense

Post by bobheckler on Sat Apr 08, 2017 12:06 pm

Swish,

As always, you back your thoughts up with substance.

We've been dealing with Superteams for the last 9 years, starting with the Big 3 of KG/Pierce/Allen but moving on to Miami, GSW and Cleveland.  But those are moving targets in a way too.  For example, LeBron's now 32.  Irving is claiming, as of today, that he is feeling soreness in his surgically repaired left knee, who knows where he'll be at a couple of playoff series from now? Love was out 2 years ago.  Having an elite team with All-Leaguers doesn't do much for you if they are injured or playing sub-par due to injuries.  That's why we play the games anyway.  Yesterday's All-Leaguers might be wounded, weakened bears now.  Dangerous, but beatable.  Even today's superstars, like Kyrie Irving can and do get injured.  

The conclusion that we need an upgrade this offseason is pretty much a gimme.  We've all been saying all year we need a shooter, that means more offense.  This crystallizes that opinion.  What I find interesting is that, with the addition of Al Horford, a high quality rim protector, our average defensive MOV is exactly the same.  What that tells me is that either Al Horford isn't as good a defender as I am giving him credit for or the area of defense Horford is usually responsible for, the paint and rim, wasn't the problem we thought it was last year ergo the lack of impact.  What do you think of that?

Here's another set of stats that I might consider relevant:  Win/Loss record of games decided by 6 points or less.  Winning a bunch of blowouts is nice, obviously, but it takes grit and mental strength, character and solid execution to win the nailbiters.  Would I prefer a team that wins more games with blowouts?  Sure, but I'd be very happy with a team that wins more nailbiters than anybody else too.  The reason why I picked 6 points is because that is 2 possessions.  3 points or less would show our character and execution even more clearly.  How do we do with those?


bob


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Re: The blame game - offense or defense

Post by dboss on Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:39 pm

One big overlooked consideration is the rapid change in the way the game is being played on offense.

Scoring averages are up league wide.  The 3 point shot has become the weapon of choice.  The Spurs have a good balance.  Everyone else seems to be firing away.  I think we still need to improve our frontline and add another high  percentage shooter or two

There is reason to be critical but not disappointed.

The single biggest concern that I have on offense is the lack of offensive fire power off the bench.  Marcus Smart plays starter minutes but I am not sure that the quality  of his defense outweighs his hideous shooting.  

Brown is still a rookie and is 1-2 years removed from becoming an offensive stud.  

We need more talent.  Begin at the bottom of the roster and work from there to upgrade the talent.  

Use all the tools avaible without compromising the long term competitive goal to stay in the mix.

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