ESPN Predicts Only 49.2 Wins This Season

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20225286/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

With so much movement of players it is very difficult if not impossible to predict wins.

They have Golden State winning 62 games.  This team is bringing back their entire rotation and added Caspi ans Nick Young to the mix.  The stability and advantage of playing together is vastly overlooked.  I would think they are a mid 60's winning team.

The articles suggest that the Celtics point differential of 2.6 is more reflective of a 48 win team.

I think Boston is very likely to go through a few bumps in the road until Brad figures out which players and rotations work best together.  This may result in the team hovering around .500 for the first half of the year before they find their sea legs.  Once they get comfortable with each other they should play very well and go into the playoff in a strong position.

There are several things that I will be watching closely.

1.  How good is their defense on the perimeter, in pick and role situations and during transitions.
2.  Will Boston improve their rebounding?  Last year they produced a minus 2.5 differential which was 27th in the league
3.  Can the Celtics increase their 3 point shooting percentage.  Last year they were 3rd in attempts but only 14th in accuracy.
4.  How will they play on the road.  Last year they were very solid and played 5 games above .500 on the road.

I also want to mention the projected wins for the Lakers.  According to the article the Lakers will win 33 games this season.  If that actually happens it further supports my observation that Boston will not be getting their 2018 pick.  

dboss

This is off topic, but if Jaylen Brown can get his perimeter shot down he will be a multi all star type player. I also see him devastating as a 2, he can just punish other 2's with his atleticism. Just got done watching him lead his World team in scoring in 4th quarter with 13 points, only an exhibition game, but this kid can create so many problems posting up and high flying over other 2's.

I see us winning 56 games this year.

cowens/oldschool wrote:This is off topic, but if Jaylen Brown can get his perimeter shot down he will be a multi all star type player. I also see him devastating as a 2, he can just punish other 2's with his atleticism. Just got done watching him lead his World team in scoring in 4th quarter with 13 points, only an exhibition game, but this kid can create so many problems posting up and high flying over other 2's.

I agree if Brown can become a reliable 3 point shooter and work on that handle.

cowens/oldschool wrote:I see us winning 56 games this year.

I am going to take the easy way out and not predict any win totals until Xmas.

This is not the same team that won 53 games. On paper they have added some talent (Hayward and Morris) but most of what they added is inexperienced rookies, G-leaguers, and Euro ball players.

dboss

I'm going on record for 60 wins, taking the eastern conference finals and playing someone from the west in the finals, most likely the warriors. 

 But I'm really  not happy at all about the loss of bradley.  This was a more painful  loss than what I think many realize at this point.

Matty I also will miss AB, but feel this team is in good hands going younger and bigger at the 2 with Jaylen. I also see Jaylen growing into a Scottie Pippen like multi position defender.

I've already predicted 60 wins so I'm predicting that it will be the Euro players who make the difference. Brad's teams have a history of starting slow and gaining momentum until the playoffs. That scenario allows the Euros to experience the NBA learning curve and then rely on their previous professional experience to push them ahead of the college crowd.

Horford is going to have a more productive season and Hayward will be an allstar. Surrounded by more competent scoring, IT will have an even more efficient season with his scoring dropping and his assists increasing. Turnovers will be more of a problem than rebounding.

When the playoffs arrive the Celtics will be primed to finally display the juggernaut that they are becoming. This may not be the team that Danny envisioned when he made the trade that keeps on giving, but I bet it plays a lot ,more like that team then last year's entry.

bobheckler posted an interesting article in another thread about Bradley being an excellent on-ball defender , but having difficulty fighting through screens and how his height disadvantaged him in multiple screen situations. He was one of my favorites, but it looks like they are grooming Brown to take over some of his defensive assignments, which he did to some extent during the playoffs. I think this team will be better than last years. How that translates into won-lost, I don`t know.

I believe that the 2.6 point differential will improve. I am not ready yet to say whether their win total will improve as well. I want to see how they play in preseason and I want to be sure Isaiah is fully recovered before I take that plunge.

gyso

GYSO

The differential while slim may also indicate a mental toughness to win close games.

I think they will double that differential this year because their offense should be better.

Dboss

If every member of the Cs rotation this year can gather just one more rebound per game above their game totals from last season, I will predict 58+ wins this season. These ten more rebounds per game will yield ten additional possessions which should gain the team 12+ points per game with their efficient offense, and should eliminate some losses from last year in games that were decided by ten or less.

Another factor is that the East has seen a bunch of all star players going to the West which should weaken some teams in our division while the Cs gained an all star (Hayward).

By the way, ESPN also predicts Brooklyn will win 29.5 games this season.  They predict the Bulls (28.5), Kings (27.4) and Hawks (27.0) to be worse.  So, that's good (bad) enough for 4th worst record.

The Lakers are predicted to win 33 games.  With Phoenix, Indy, Orlando and NYK expected to do worse than that it's looking more and more like we'll get Sacto's 2019 pick instead.


bob


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I'll bet a million dollars we don't win 49.2 games this year.

I`ll only take that bet if you throw in the Brooklyn Bridge, bobc

bobc33 wrote:I'll bet a million dollars we don't win 49.2 games this year.

Could we call a timeout if we're ahead with 38.4 minutes left in the game, and then leave the building?  49 more Ws on top of that would do it.

The Celtics were 36-16 in conference last year and a respectable 17-13 against the west.

The Eastern conference will be noticeably weaker as Atlanta, Indiana and Chicago all lost their star player.  The other East teams that were non playoffs team may be slightly better but overall Boston should be a dominant team in the East.

The big challenge is out West.  The depth of good teams out there will be very difficult to overcome.

I am still not ready to make any predictions about wins/loses but I do think that Boston can improve on their conference record of 36 wins.

dboss

NYCelt wrote:

bobc33 wrote:I'll bet a million dollars we don't win 49.2 games this year.

Could we call a timeout if we're ahead with 38.4 minutes left in the game, and then leave the building?  49 more Ws on top of that would do it.

Yes indeed NYC good thinking!

Jay King @ByJayKing
about 43 minutes ago
Celtics drop to 44 wins in RPM projections. twitter.com/kpelton/status…
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bob
MY NOTE:  The Kyrie trade reduced our projected win total 5.2 wins.



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I won't be surprised if the Celts surpass all expectations again this coming season.

Reason?

Brad Stevens!

Even before Brad Stevens coached his first regular season game as a rookie coach in 2013, I already said Brad has the potential to be one of the great coaches in the NBA.

One former BDC member said it's laughable to say something like that.

Look at Brad Stevens now.

Every year, since Brad took over from Doc, the Celts always surpassed expectations.

Brad Stevens gets more out of his players, makes them overachieve.

Just look at Evan Turner and Jared Sullinger.
Both players were very productive under Brad.
But when both players changed teams, they didn't play as well as they did with the Celts.