Kings preparing offer sheet for Marcus Smart

ya had to remind me about Kevin Durant.......and my summer WAS going so well too!!

beat wrote:

dboss wrote:

beat wrote:

worcester wrote:My nephew was at Game 7 vs. Cleveland. He saw  Marcus go 0-9 on 3's. That was enough for him to say don't pay Marcus big bucks. Me too.

I was there too and saw Smart go 0-4 from three.

TR was 0-10 and Brown 3-12 from 3.

Nobody aside from Horford and Tatum shot well that game (team 34% FG)

If you’re basing $$$ on that game then lots of players are well overpaid.

Think your nephew needs to go back and watch it again.


beat

Smart has shot the ball poorly for 4 years.   Game 7 was not any different.   For those that find that unacceptable to warrant a big raise and extension, almost any amount may seem like too much.  For those that love his defense and care nothing or not much about how poorly he shoots, the idea that he must be resigned makes sense.  

Look I was only pointing out the stats W claimed were wrong.

Nowhere did I add anything beyond that about his shooting.


I do think the constant harping on his shooting is like beating a dead horse.


It is what it is


But it does seem that we play better when he is on the court.

beat

Please do not take offense. I was just pointing out both sides.

As much as one may get tired of the poor shooting comments, one may also get tired of the poor shooting.

It is in relationship to the question at hand. I found it curious to highlight his 7th game shooting given his historically bad shooting.

I certainly did not take offense to have the error in my nephew's stat pointed out. What is true is that Marcus' shooting sucks. He plays excellent D and is a big contributor. We could sure use him, but not at the expense of going into luxury tax realm this season.

dboss wrote:

beat wrote:

dboss wrote:

beat wrote:

worcester wrote:My nephew was at Game 7 vs. Cleveland. He saw  Marcus go 0-9 on 3's. That was enough for him to say don't pay Marcus big bucks. Me too.

I was there too and saw Smart go 0-4 from three.

TR was 0-10 and Brown 3-12 from 3.

Nobody aside from Horford and Tatum shot well that game (team 34% FG)

If you’re basing $$$ on that game then lots of players are well overpaid.

Think your nephew needs to go back and watch it again


beat

Smart has shot the ball poorly for 4 years.   Game 7 was not any different.   For those that find that unacceptable to warrant a big raise and extension, almost any amount may seem like too much.  For those that love his defense and care nothing or not much about how poorly he shoots, the idea that he must be resigned makes sense.  

Look I was only pointing out the stats W claimed were wrong.

Nowhere did I add anything beyond that about his shooting.


I do think the constant harping on his shooting is like beating a dead horse.


It is what it is


But it does seem that we play better when he is on the court.

beat

Please do not take offense.  I was just pointing out both sides.  

As much as one may get tired of the poor shooting comments, one may also get tired of the poor shooting.  

It is in relationship to the question at hand.  I found it curious to highlight his 7th game shooting given his historically bad shooting.

No offense taken

I can live with his poor shooting. That may never change much, non of us have any control on that, but being constantly told about it by many on here months after the season ended wears thin IMHO.

In the post game wrap ups by Bob H. If he shoot terrible and it’s mentioned is understandable.

I just grow tired of the bashing cause it’s not gonna change anything.

Again no offense taken.

beat

mrkleen09 wrote:

gyso wrote:

So by throwing out numbers that you think should be his top salary of what he should be his compensation, in my opinion, does not consider all the moving parts.  

Unless any of us are in the negotiations, this is true.  But from the outside - considering "comps" is a very sound way to arrive at a fair price.

For every Al Horford, who bring a laundry list of intangibles that are hard to quantify.  I can give you 10 players who were considered to be overpaid at the time, and remain disastrous signings to this day.  Just because the comparative comp model misses from time to time, in no way means it isnt the best worst option of calculating future worth and success.

Kleen,

I agree that "comps"  (as in my buying or refinancing a house comparison above) from the outside looking in have value and can be a good place to start.  Like anything related to stats, like the per-36, the +/-, etc., their use without context can result in unrealistic results.  For example, Horford played fairly well in his role in Atlanta, but I can remember many members here wanted nothing to do with him during and after our playoff series with Atlanta that year.

He eventually signed with the Celtics that next summer and many here still ragged on him his first season with us as a over-paid past his prime player.  Those members considered his signing a disaster at that time, even though his signing almost netted Durant.  He eventually became comfortable during his second season and advanced his skill set under Brad.  He may become (IMO) an option to keep around after his current contract ends because of Brad's system, his role in the system and the fact that he does not need exceptional athletic ability to perform at a high level later into his 30's.  Even now, to many, he is considered to be an over-paid player for what he delivers.

Put Smart on another team and he may not perform as well elsewhere as he does here for the same reason.  Here, he can be a spot starter and come off the bench.  He may even be on the floor at the end of tight games, but I cannot see him as a starter anywhere else for a team that actually is a contender.  I can accept him to also be considered one of our over-paid player, for what he delivers.  If he can better regulate his three-point shooting, he will be worth it in the long run. IMO, he has tons of intangibles that make us a better team when he is on the floor.

So, yeah, comparisons can be a good way to evaluate contracts and values, but there are so many moving parts that some fail to include in those comps.

gyso

When someone demands $12-13M plus and the marketplace does not respond with interest, that player is over pricing himself.

I believe there is unanimous agreement on one thing as I cannot recall no other poster that is not in agreement.

Seems everyone agrees that Boston should retain Smart.

The only disagreement before us centers around his value.  And even within the context of (for example) he is worth $13 mill per year, the caveat that cannot and should not be overlooked is the impact of X dollars on the CAP and Luxury tax thresholds and how either one of them will impact the team moving forward.  

It would be remiss not to consider what happens next season when Terry and Kyrie are due for a raise and how the money to retain Smart may prevent the Celtics from retaining one or the other.

My hope is that he accepts the one year QO because it will help Boston avoid the tax and delay any long term decision regarding Smart, Rozier and Irving until next year.

At the very beginning of the season I said that it would be great to keep both Smart and Rozier.  I also stated that if I had to make a choice between the two I would keep Rozier.  After his play this past season and the play of Smart I feel even stronger about them keeping Terry over Marcus if they are forced into making that decision.

Therefore if Smart is able to garner a nice multi-year contract with another team and Boston declines to match, I am okay with that.  

Off topic a bit...  Looking at next year, there may be a false assumption that the free agent market will not be as tight.  I disagree with that assertion because almost 200 NBA players will be free agents next summer.  The big dogs are going to get paid but the vast majority of free agents will be scrambling for peanuts.  If Smart gets an opportunity to get a nice contract now,he should do so without hesitation.  If the reports are accurate about Boston offering him an extension before the season, then he blew a great opportunity.

I will be glad when this saga is over irregardless of how things turn out.  There is no player on this team that is so superior that Boston cannot be competitive without him because they have assets to replace him if needed but Al Horford may be an exception to that.

To add

Down the road it appears the NBA will get rid of the one and done rule as early as next draft.  

That “could” increase the value of a lottery pick as more players will become available but may also increase the risk of drafting teens.

beat

If I can locate the link I’ll share it but heard it on a sports talk show with the commissioner

https://es.pn/2uoi5Ng


It’s mentioned a few times near the end off the piece.

beat wrote:To add

Down the road it appears the NBA will get rid of the one and done rule as early as next draft.  

That “could” increase the value of a lottery pick as more players will become available but may also increase the risk of drafting teens.

beat

If I can locate the link I’ll share it but heard it on a sports talk show with the commissioner

https://es.pn/2uoi5Ng

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-ready-to-change-one-and-done-rule-allow-players-to-enter-at-18-commissioner-adam-silver-says/

The influx of so many young players is pushing veterans out the back door.

worcester wrote:When  someone demands $12-13M plus and the marketplace does not respond with interest, that player is over pricing himself.

You have to remember the context of the "lack of interest" this summer. Smart is a restricted free agent. That is why he has not gotten any offers in that range. If he did, we would quickly match the offer and deal with the sal cap ramifications after. It will take a much higher offer than that for us not to match. He may be valuing himself exactly where some would pay, even us.

Lets say he takes the QO this summer. Fast forward to next summer, I would guess that he would have plenty of offers in that range, since he would be unrestricted and free to deal with whoever he likes without our ability to match. That is why unrestricted free agents get their deals done in early July.

IMO, it is not so much that he is over pricing himself, it is mostly the current situation (RFA) that is causing the delay in signing. Eventually, we will find out what the Celtics value him at or he will take the QO, especially if no other team makes an offer.

Hope the dentist went well, Gyso, I hate to hear you may have had pain or discomfort.

Your post was well written. I agree totally. However, I
am beginning to thing the biggest problem with this issue is the press. I have read six different stories on one site, all different ideas. All claiming Smart's issue's with the Celtics, his displeasure with Danny, the fact that he is negotiating with other teams????, still not identified. This agent is out of control and is not helping this kid at all. What a shame.

And....the press just keeps printing and printing it all.
This is why you hear so little from Ainge. This is sad, but where it all ends, who knows.

If Marcus Smart leaves the Cs either by free agency or by trade, Mr. Ainge will immediately start to find a guy who can do what Smart does. Finding such a guy may take a few days, few months or even a few years, but the search will begin right after he leaves.

With that said, no reason to let him leave up to about 11 M per year.

What is the QO? How much did Danny offer Marcus for 1 year?

gyso

I think there may be more variables than the fact that he is a restricted free agent.

I think RFA combined with fewer teams with CAP space and team needs also should be factored in.

Teams seem to gravitate to the best offensive players first.  Defensive players by in large do not get paid as much as offensive players.  Teams that are  mostly built and ready for contention but lack that finishing defensive piece seems like a good fit for Smart.  Teams that are already built however have less options to add anybody because most are over the CAP.  

So for example you have the Kings offering Levine a $78 million contract.  Levine has been injury prone but he is a scorer and a high flyer.   They could potentially go after Smart but it will not be anywhere near the deal that was offered to Levine.

Today's NBA is all about offense and taking and making a lot of 3 point shots.

Teams do want guys who can defend but even that is different depending on the position.  A center who is a good rebounder and shot blocker/rim protector is probably more valuable than a PG that can defend.  A 3 and D guy is more valuable because he can defend and make the 3 .

I think Marcus is definitely over-pricing himself.

wideclyde wrote:If Marcus Smart leaves the Cs either by free agency or by trade, Mr. Ainge will immediately start to find a guy who can do what Smart does.  Finding such a guy may take a few days, few months or even  a few years, but the search will begin right after he leaves.

With that said, no reason to let him leave up to about 11 M per year.

$11 million is a lot in this Market at this point during FA.  A team that would do that has to have CAP space.  Atl, Sacramento, Dallas and Brooklyn have some CAP space but the only teams that could offer a $10 million contract without needing a sign and trade is Atlanta and Sacramento.  Atlanta does not need another PG and the Kings are apparently now interested in Rodney "I ain't going in the game" Hood. I guess there may be a few teams that could renounce their CAP holds to free up money buy again it has to be a team that has a need for the specific level of skills that Smart brings to the table.

The only thing remaining is the MLE.  Since teams figure that Boston will match that, it may not be offered.  Also, teams often like to use their MLE to sign more than one player.  Teams under the cap have a smaller MLE amount to offer and teams paying the tax also have a smaller amount as well.  These conditions whittle down the number of viable teams.

This leads me to conclude that Boston will resign Marcus and it will likely be for the $6.1 million QO.

The Celtics will then be able to also retain Jabari Bird for short money.

I did not realize that Happy Walters was his agent.  He was also the agent for Noel.  Guys that turn down extensions are gambling with their projected future earnings.

Now it is reported that Smart would gladly take that offer from last October.  However just like the NE Patriots, an offer refused does not come back around.

Funny. I seem to recall that the C’s did NOT offer Smart an extension last year. Now, thats all we are hearing is that they did. Misinformation overload!

Ktronic1 wrote:Funny. I seem to recall that the C’s did NOT offer Smart an extension last year. Now, thats all we are hearing is that they did. Misinformation overload!

Last summer Boston and Smart did engage in contract talks right before the deadline and by all accounts at the time were very close to getting a deal done, but in the end, were unable to bridge the gap between the two camps in enough time to ink a deal, thus creating the situation that we are all waiting to see come to a close. The specifics of that deal from the C's end would likely never be revealed, but I'm sure Happy and his crew might have leaked out the sort of deal each side might have had in mind.

beat wrote:

dboss wrote:

beat wrote:

dboss wrote:

beat wrote:

worcester wrote:My nephew was at Game 7 vs. Cleveland. He saw  Marcus go 0-9 on 3's. That was enough for him to say don't pay Marcus big bucks. Me too.

I was there too and saw Smart go 0-4 from three.

TR was 0-10 and Brown 3-12 from 3.

Nobody aside from Horford and Tatum shot well that game (team 34% FG)

If you’re basing $$$ on that game then lots of players are well overpaid.

Think your nephew needs to go back and watch it again


beat

Smart has shot the ball poorly for 4 years.   Game 7 was not any different.   For those that find that unacceptable to warrant a big raise and extension, almost any amount may seem like too much.  For those that love his defense and care nothing or not much about how poorly he shoots, the idea that he must be resigned makes sense.  

Look I was only pointing out the stats W claimed were wrong.

Nowhere did I add anything beyond that about his shooting.



I do think the constant harping on his shooting is like beating a dead horse.


It is what it is




But it does seem that we play better when he is on the court.

beat

Please do not take offense.  I was just pointing out both sides.  


As much as one may get tired of the poor shooting comments, one may also get tired of the poor shooting.  

It is in relationship to the question at hand.  I found it curious to highlight his 7th game shooting given his historically bad shooting.

No offense taken



I can live with his poor shooting.   That may never change much, non of us have any control on that, but being constantly told about it by many on here months after the season ended wears thin IMHO.

In the post game wrap ups by Bob H. If he shoot terrible and it’s mentioned is understandable.  

I just grow tired of the bashing cause it’s not gonna change anything.


Again no offense taken.

beat

Would you rather hear me talk again about Perk?

Matty wrote:

Ktronic1 wrote:Funny. I seem to recall that the C’s did NOT offer Smart an extension last year. Now, thats all we are hearing is that they did. Misinformation overload!

Last summer Boston and Smart did engage in contract talks right before the deadline and by all accounts at the time were very close to getting a deal done, but in the end, were unable to bridge the gap between the two camps in enough time to ink a deal, thus creating the situation that we are all waiting to see come to a close.  The specifics of that deal from the C's end would likely never be revealed, but I'm sure Happy and his crew might have leaked out the sort of deal each side might have had in mind.

Cool. Never know what to believe but if true, I feel better that they at least engaged last Fall.

I've read elsewhere that it was four years at $12M each.

gyso wrote:I've read elsewhere that it was four years at $12M each.  

That makes sense. The reason why that figure may have been declined is because rumors were being bandied about that talked about Smart wanting more money and his dumb ass agent was the driving force behind it.

Here is a 2017 article quoting Smart https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2017/10/17/marcus-smart-not-reaching-contract-extension-celtics-not-bad-thing/

"We talked about it," Smart said. "Just, the numbers weren’t adding up, so we decided to decline the offer that was approached to us and we’ll take our chances in restricted free agency...We thought it was close from the fact that we didn’t ask for much. We didn’t ask for a max deal. We were going to take less money than what we probably are valued, and some other things, but they just weren’t budging."

Here is one from Mark Murphy http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2017/10/marcus_smart_celtics_notorious_for_not_extending_rookie_contracts

"CLEVELAND — Echoing the sentiments of agent Happy Walters a night earlier, Marcus Smart said yesterday that if the Celtics want to keep him, the cost will be higher next summer in restricted free agency than if the team had met his rookie extension wishes this week."

A max deal? R U Serious?
On another note, today I had a husband and wife as patients. He is 6'9"; she is 4'9". Wow.

That reminded me of 1969 when I met Satch Sanders sister, Tina. She was 4'11", and Satch was 6'9".

Worcester,  one can only imagine.............fill in the blanks.

The articles I posted are from 2017.  I think they help to verifies a few things.

In particular, that Boston did make an offer last year and Marcus and Happy said no.

Also, the driving force behind the refusal was based on inflated expectation for the 2018 free agency period.

It also illustrates that Danny is not to be trifled with.  You cannot scare him into over paying you.  He made a very fair offer to Smart that would have given him financial security.

With the 2017-18 season over, his value is not on the same level that it was last October.  That is why him and Happy can forget about getting a Mulligan.

When was the last time a Celtic fared better with Danny after turning down his first offer?

worcester wrote:When was the last time a Celtic fared better with Danny after turning down his first offer?

no one fares better by dealing with Danny, well no one since Mark Blount, just ask the Cavs how things went with them on the Thomas trade, or The Suns on the Thomas trade, or, even how Brooklyn feels about the PP/KG trade.

Rumor has it even Donald Trump refuses to deal with Danny.