Teams to beat in 2018-19.

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Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by swish on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:36 pm

In the last 37 years the NBA champ played .620 ball or better the previous year 34 times. In 2 of those 3 years when the champ won following a sub .620 year their roster benefited from a major up-grade in talent. In 1995-96 when the Bulls added Jordan and Rodman and in 2007-08 when the Celts added Garnett and Allen and went on to win championships.
 If form holds up here are the 5 teams that figure to be in the hunt. An easy to read comparison of many key stats in below link

  http://bkref.com/tiny/o6m3V
https://stats.nba.com/teams/advanced/?sort=REB_PCT&dir=-1

  swish

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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by swish on Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:58 pm

For my previous post.
 Click the header to sort by team ranking. For the link for NBA.com stats I could not sort down to the 5 contenders but they are still listed by rank once you hit the header. It is now sorted by REB%.
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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by sinus007 on Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:34 pm

Swish,
Thanks.
IMHO, the stats and the list are much simpler - there's only one team to beat.

AK
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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by swish on Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:32 pm

sinus007 wrote:Swish,
Thanks.
IMHO, the stats and the list are much simpler - there's only one team to beat.

AK

sinus007

There was a time when rebounds factored highly in handicaping a race - now the go to stat seems to be shooting accuracy with an emphasis on EFG and overall field goal percentages.
Even a sizeable number of BIGS are getting their share of 3 point attempts. Over the last 7 years the number of 3 point shots has gone from 18.4 to 29.0 per team per game - a 57.6% increase - while the years 1994-95 through 2010-11 (16 years) only increased from 15.3 to 18.4 (20.2%). A huge change in a short period of time.

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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by swish on Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:26 am

Add this link to my original post - more detailed data.

http://bkref.com/tiny/UEO2G

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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by dboss on Fri Sep 07, 2018 11:59 am

The first thing they need to do is establish their dominance in the East.  The main competition to get the best record will be Toronto, Philly and Indiana.  IMO

However the Celtics must avoid stubbing their toe on games against Miami and Washington.  Last year they went a combined 2-5 against those teams.  Detroit was also looking good before fading badly.

Toronto is the biggest challenge.  They won the regular season EC and the Celtics have not found a way to beat them on the road.  Leonard could be the best all around player in the East if healthy.  It is like flipping IT for Irving.  DeRozan was their main guy but a healthy Leonard is better.  The coaching change is a big unknown.  The COY Casey got fired because the Raptors could not beat Lebron and the Cavs.  Now that Lebron is gone and the Cavs look on paper to be a team with no superstar talent, the Raptors may see a real opportunity to get out of the East.  They will have to best the Celtics in order to do that.  Sometimes even if one team is better overall against the competition than another team, it is also true that some teams match up better than other teams.  

Philly lost to Boston in the 2nd round badly but let us not overlook their amazing 17 game win streak to run out the season.  They still did not add enough to beat Boston but they could easily have their way with the rest of the East.

Did you know that The Pacers have 4 players on their roster that went to UCLA?  The success of this team begins and ends with the ability of Victor Oladipo.  At times he is unguardable but the Pacers want to play him off the ball.  Enter Aaron Holiday the 3rd
talented sibling to become an NBA player and a UCLA guy.  He is a point guard but as a rookie he has a ways to go.  Indiana will be a tough out.

Regarding the impact of the 3 point shot on today's game, that is what we have been talking about for several years.  Boston is 2nd in the NBA in accuracy at .377

However they were only 10th in 3PA and the best 3 point shooting team, GS was tied for 16th.  The key therefore is less about volume and more about efficiency.  We can perhaps give different weights to certain things that a team does well and 3 point shooting seems to be a major factor as 7 out of the top 10 3 pt shooting teams (percentage not attempts) made the playoffs last year.

I think Boston must become a much better FT shooting team.  They finished at #17 last year.  The main perpetrator was Jaylen Brown. He was second on the team in FTA and abysmal at 64%.  The good news is that he should get better.  The great news is that Gordon Hayward is a 82% FT shooter and he averaged 6 attempts per game the previous 3 years in Utah.  Kyrie was out best foul shooter but he only averages 4.4 attempts per game.

Do you see where I am going with this? Do you see how a guy like Hayward who knows how to get to the line will impact winning?

The Celtics lost 7 games last year by 3 points or fewer.  In 6 of those 7 losses Boston either shot below their season FT  average in either attempts or percentage.

I could dig into some other stats like rebounding but I can tell you with a high degree of certainty that if they get 20 FT attempts every game and hit 77% of them they would have won 6 out of those 7 games that were lost by 3 or fewer points.

Please forgive me for going off on a tangent.
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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by bobc33 on Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:41 pm

dboss please keep going on the tangents your analysis is always in depth and interesting!
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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by swish on Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:43 pm

dboss

I always look forward to reading your post. While I sometimes differ with your conclusions I appreciate the fact that you take the time to back your opinions with convincing data.

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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by dboss on Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:53 pm

bobc33 wrote:dboss please keep going on the tangents your analysis is always in depth and interesting!

Thank you.

I think that statistical analysis is like watching paint dry. Nevertheless, behind every stat lies a direct result; an outcome defined by the participants in this wonderful game of basketball and a collection of impactfull variables that become a result, both good and bad.

I am undoubtedly extremely optimistic about this team.

We have a great opportunity to see our Boston Celtics win their 18th Championship. We are now well pass a longing to have a better team than we have now.

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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by worcester on Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:48 pm

Excellent tangential analysis on the impact of FT shooting on Celtics win and losses...
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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

Post by bobheckler on Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:13 am

Teams to beat? All of them.  

How we beat them will change with matchups. That's why Brad is the difference-maker.



bob


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Re: Teams to beat in 2018-19.

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