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Shamrock1000 wrote:

swish wrote:

112288 wrote:112288

Yes,, The celts were ranked 29th in points in the paint last year - but note that the champ Warriors were only 22nd and the Rockets who lost in 7 games to the champs in the western conference finals, were ranked 28th. But overall the Warriors and Rockets were ranked 1-2 in scoring. Obviously their scoring from other areas more than off set their lack of scoring in the paint.

swish

That is true ....but due to the fact that both teams have multiple and incredible 3 point shooters who have been consistent year in and year out.

So if you have those shooters you can gamble on shooting lower percentage shoots.

The Celtics do not have that fire power and yet the majority of the game is based on shooting the 3 shot.

When you do not have the cards, ya gotta fold'em and not continue to raise the ante.

112288

   

 112288

When it comes to shooting 3's the Warriors have been in a league of their own recently. The Rockets on the other hand, at best have been mediocre over the last 3 years - 15th in 2016-17, 13th in 2017-18 and 23rd so far in 2018-19. The Celtics were 14th in 2016-17, 2ND IN 2017-18 and 18th so far in 2018-19 . If we are going to use the past as a potential predictor of the future - then should we not at least consider the 2017-18 season when it comes to rating the potential of this years group of 3 point shooters. The only question for me is - when to past judgement -  and in my opinion 18 games is way to early.

 swish

I wonder if the league is changing, and the analytics of 2 years ago are already becoming antiquated. The modern analytics movement was predicated on scoring efficiency, and as long as 3 pt percentages stay above 33% and 2 pt percentages stay below 50%, then the three point shot is more efficient. Of course I am ignoring pace and over-simplifying things, but that is the basic underlying assumption. This has clearly been an effective strategy the last few years as evidenced by the Warriors dominance, and even the success of Cleveland and our beloved Celtics. However, it is inevitable that defensive strategies would respond with schemes that limit 3 point effectiveness. Since no defensive scheme is perfect, the cost is giving up more 2s. I would predict that since defenses are more willing to give teams these shots, their percentages will go up while increased focus on preventing 3s will result in the percentage for 3s going down. If the 2 point shot gets much above 50% and the 3 pt percentage decreases then the analytics-based 3-point philosophy becomes flawed. A quick look at basketball-reference.com indicates a correlation between the best 2 point shooting teams and teams with the best records. Many on this board have complained about our offense's dependence on the three, and perhaps they are onto something that updated analytics supports; maybe the game has evolved such that the analytics of two years ago are already outdated, and our Celtics are currently behind the curve...