25 games in @ 15-10

At 15-10 the Celtics are now 25 games in.

They are currently 5th in the EC and tied for 10th overall with the Memphis Grizzlies.   More significant to the current standing however is their ever increasing point differential.  The Celtics are on a tear.  Their average points per game is now at 110.2 and their defense remains strong at 102.9 points allowed.

Their PF/PA differential is now 7.4 or 3rd in the league behind the Bucks and the Raptors.  Those teams however are not top defensive teams like Boston.

So how did they get to this point.  Although the recent 6 out of 7 wins came at the expense of low hanging fruit it would be remiss not to acknowledge that the Celtics have also beaten the Raptors, Bucks and Sixers this year.  

The questions is about how you feel the team is doing.  Do you have the same expectations as you had at the beginning of the season?  Do the Celtics have enough at both ends to win this season?  Can they win the title?

I can only speak for myself but my expectations remain very positive and I have reflected on things that went wrong during the first 25 games of the season.    The Celtics had a big target on their backs.  How you play as a perceived front runner is a lot different than how you play as an underdog.  That was a lesson that they needed to learn.    This teams has too much talent to be a low scoring team.

The integration of one Gordon Hayward and its' impact on the team  was unknown going into the season.  Adding GH would, at least on paper,  push the Celtics to a level comparable to GSW.  I felt like having another excellent offensive players would make the Celtics a great team.  Well it has taken some time and it will take more time for Gordon to arrive at a level of comfort with this team and his role as a key component to their success.

The most noticeable change from last year has been a 20% increase in the volume of 3 point shooting.  Early in the season they were shooting well below last year's pace and it seemed as though they had no interest in employing a full scale offensive attack.  They have started to score more on fast breaks (8th compared to 27th last year)  And their corresponding pace has also increased as they are now 9th in FGA compared to 25th last year.  Their turnovers are down from last year.  After the recent winning streak the Celtics are now shooting .366 from deep.  These guys did not forget how to shoot.   We are seeing more dribble penetration, back screens and cuts and more overall fluidity in their offense.   The Celtics need to continue this trend by staying very disciplined in what they set out to do.  As coach Stevens continues to accumulate more data and use it to fine tune things, I expect the next 25 games to produce even better results.

On defense Boston was embarrassed several games because some guy put up a career stat.  That is bound to happen but that should be rare.  Boston remains a top defensive team because they can close out teams that shoot the 3 ball (2nd in NBA 32.0% behind Detroit 31.1%) and their switching defense is solid and getting better.  I am starting to see more double switches that serve to eliminate mismatch situations.  Much is dependent on anticipating when and where to switch.  Brad has a lot of different players to use at every position.

Top to bottom Boston is the deepest team in the NBA .

Over the past 7 games Boston has shot 42.2% from deep.  They still take too many 3 point shots in that some of those attempts are ill advised.  When a guy (Other than Kyrie) comes down and just launches a 3 pointer early in the shot clock and with no guys in position to challenge for a rebound it will backfire.  From what I have observed they are trying to be more selective and let's face it, the Celtics have a lot of very capable 3 point shooters so they are going to shoot them.

While they are running more I do not think they are running enough.  Fast break basketball  wins games when the 3 pointers are not falling.  What I hope to see is a sustained balanced attack.

I have seen nothing that tells me we are still a year away.  I think they should win now.  The Celtics are well positioned to establish their dominant behavior in the NBA.  There are no shortcuts to the top and Boston has their work cut out for them but I think they are well positioned to get the job done.

Here is the current win/loss records of the teams we have played so far.  As we all know, and are certainly seeing now with this resurgent Celtic team, how a team starts is not indicative of how good they are but, nevertheless, here are 25 snapshots in time:


October 5-2, 4 road games, 5 against >.500 teams and 4-1 against them, 5 vs playoff teams and 3-2 against them

Philadelphia (W) = 18-9 (#2 in EC, tied with 2 other teams for #2 in NBA)
@Toronto (L) = 21-6 (#1 in NBA)
@Knicks (W) = 8-19
Magic (L) = 12-14 (#8 in EC)
@OKC (W) = 16-8 (#2 in WC)
@Detroit (W) = 13-10 (#6 in EC, #13 in NBA)
Detroit (W) = 13-10


November  7-8, 8 road games, 8 against .500 teams and 2-6 against them, 6 vs playoff teams and 1-5 against them

Milwaukee (W) = 16-8 (#3 in EC)
@ Indiana (L) = 16-10 (#4 in EC)
@ Denver (L) = 17-9 (#3 in WC)
@ Phoenix (W) = 4-22
@ Utah (L) = 13-13
@ Portland (L) = 15-11 (#7 in WC)
Chicago (W) = 6-21
Toronto (W) = 21-6
Utah (L) = 13-13
Charlotte (L) = 12-13 (#7 in EC)
Knicks (L) = 8-19
@Atlanta (W) = 6-20
@ Dallas (L) = 13-11 (#8 in WC)
@ NOP (W) = 13-14
Cleveland (W) = 6-20


December  3-0, 2 road games, 1 against a .500 team and 1-0 against them, 0 games vs playoff teams

@Minnesota (W) = 13-13
Knicks (W) = 8-19
@Chicago (W) = 6-21


So, as of 12/9/18, we are:

15-10 overall
7-7 vs teams .500 or better
4-7 vs playoff teams

Philadelphia of today, with Butler, is not the same team we crushed on opening night.  That horrendous west coast trip really made these numbers look bad.  When you go on a 5 game road trip and lose 4, you're going to look weak no matter who you are playing.

Nevertheless, we are 8-7 on the road.  Winning on the road, against anybody, is tough.  Our 7.4 MOV is 3rd in the league.  Was it pumped up by last night's Ruining of The Bulls?  Sure, but that's part of what MOV suggests to you, it suggests how many laughers you have had.  Our current 5 game win streak is the longest current win streak in the NBA, the next closest are Indy and GSW's 3-game win streaks.  Only the Utah Jazz (16, 9-7) has played more away games than us (15, 8-7).  The Knicks have also played 15 away games and they are Knickerbocker-esque 4-10.



bob


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Agree to a T.

We do have depth and love the way team has responded with 2 new starters. Smart gets to set the tone defensively with 4 very capable offensive players, 2 all stars and a budding future all star. His passing/vision also adds to the better effectiveness of the first unit. What else I love is the 2nd unit got strengthened and Jaylen doesn’t have to sacrifice, can just play and be spark plug and attack. Love the way he passes, but once Hayward gets more confident, the unit will be even better.

We will get better and better as youngins continue their growth, and players get more comfortable in the BS system. We also have the growth/impact of young Robert Williams to look forward to, he has similar attributes for the big position as Jaylen does for the wing position. I can’t wait to see how a young menacing athletic shot blocker will look with all these other stellar pieces at every position.

Bob

Good info. So what do you see happening the rest of the way. Do you have concerns about the 4-7 record against playoff teams?

I am not sure that Philly is that much better now that they have Butler.

dboss wrote:Bob

Good info.  So what do you see happening the rest of the way.  Do you have concerns about the 4-7 record against playoff teams?  

dboss,

I'd be a damn fool if I wasn't.  Once again, to be clear, just because I'm concerned now doesn't mean I will still be in a few weeks or months from now.  As a wise man used to say "see me in April".

Drilling down a bit more, we are 5-4 vs Eastern Conference playoff teams.  Hardly awe-inspiring but, since we are a playoff pedestrian fifth in the EC it would be at least a bit notable if our record vs EC playoff teams were anything but pedestrian too.  Just as the old golf joke goes "100% of the putts that do not reach the hole do not go in" it is also true that "100% of the teams that do not reach the Conference Finals do not win Championships".  We need to get to the Big Dance first and playing well against our EC peers is Step 1.  We're doing ok, not great, and that specific measuring stick bears watching as the season continues.


bob



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We're 5-4 the Raptors are 5-3 and Philly is 7-6.  The Bucks have the best record at 6-2 but all of these numbers are relative.  For example the Bucks have only played 9 road games and are below .500 at 4-5.  Philly also has not won on the road 5-8.

There is really only one team in the East that scares me and that is Toronto.  They have been the best team in the NBA.  

No one has played the same schedule so it is still early to figure things out.  Boston has played a really tough schedule and they have been working through some issues.  I see them making up some ground before the end of the year.  Toronto will be hitting the RD after playing the Buck tonite, then it's @ LAC, GSW, Portland, Denver then home against Indy.  The Bucks have a lot of road games to pick up.

I realalize that fans tend to evaluate their teams fortune's on just about a daily basis (both positive and negative) but in doing so seem to subject themselves to almost a daily rollercoaster ride of emotions and speculation. Relax and enjoy the games (win or lose). By April the serious contenders should be much more clearly defined allowing for a more objective analysis of the teams and their prospects for the future.

 swish

swish wrote:I realalize that fans tend to evaluate their teams fortune's on just about a daily basis (both positive and negative) but in doing so seem to subject themselves to almost a dailey rollercoaster ride of emotions and speculation. Relax and enjoy the games (win or lose). By April the serious contenders should be much more clearly defined allowing for a more objective analysis of the teams and their prospects for the future.

 swish

Agreed 100%, as a Sam would say see me in April, all teams going thru changes throughout season, I like our roster, trust the coach and players will only get better as season wears on.

swish wrote:I realalize that fans tend to evaluate their teams fortune's on just about a daily basis (both positive and negative) but in doing so seem to subject themselves to almost a dailey rollercoaster ride of emotions and speculation. Relax and enjoy the games (win or lose). By April the serious contenders should be much more clearly defined allowing for a more objective analysis of the teams and their prospects for the future.

 swish

Once again, our voice of reason.

A week ago the Celtics were six games behind Toronto in the loss column. Now they're three back. And Toronto has played five more home games than Boston (15 vs 10).

swish wrote:I realalize that fans tend to evaluate their teams fortune's on just about a daily basis (both positive and negative) but in doing so seem to subject themselves to almost a daily rollercoaster ride of emotions and speculation. Relax and enjoy the games (win or lose). By April the serious contenders should be much more clearly defined allowing for a more objective analysis of the teams and their prospects for the future.

 swish

Swish this is a 25 game look/see not a daily thing. There is no rollercoaster ride of emotions. 25 games is a good sample size to look at. Of course the more games played the more accurate the evaluation of statistical data as well as long term trends.

I have done 25 game in reviews several times in the past.

dboss
It's just my way of viewing things - perhaps I'll spend more time later in the season taking a more serious view of the Celtics performance - but for now I'll just sit back and enjoy the excitement - of watching about 3 or 4 games each night. I guess that the bottom line is that I'm not comfortable at charting the teams future 4 or 5 months down the road - so I'll leave that to other board members with more expertise in that field.

swish

A week or so ago I heard or read that we have the easiest schedule from here, and we also have played the hardest schedule. I know this really doesn't mean a lot other than analytics. The main part that matters to me is the road owes us 5 games now. We have to start doing a better job of protecting our home court. Philly for instance is 13-1. That is the kind of record we need to have at home. One other point is the first twenty games we really did not play that well so I think we are going to be playing better from here on out.

The roles for the players are becoming more defined which should help us be more consistent.

It is not unreasonable to identify which horses are running well "at the quarter pole" and, 25 games into an 82 game season, we are already past the quarter pole.

Trying to figure out which horse runs well in the flats and which closes and finishes well, who has the top jockeys and guessing which horses will be ending up in the money at the finish line is what horse-racing is about too, it's not just about past performance.  I do believe Vegas does a nice piece of business predicated upon this.  That's all we're doing here, minus the $.  We're looking at how we've done, how we've done vs our peers and how we think we will do AND how we think they'll do.


bob


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There has been no question n my mind that the last five games have been a great sign pointing towards the rest of the season.

The starting lineup that has been used for these games has clearly helped set the tone in each game and should not be changed.

Hi,
I believe that the Celtics are on the right path.
The last 5 games showed indication of different things and players falling into the right position/order. Sure, those games were against mostly bottom feeders but the way we dispatched them and the final scores left no doubts that Celtics is a superior team. This wasn't the case in the previous games.
Another factor that we have to take into consideration is the last season has spoiled us: we lost all-star player and went on 16-0 run, then we lost another all-star (our best scorer) player and came within 6 minutes from going into Finals; now we've got them back, we're at full strength - so the logical assumption is that we should be tearing the league apart. Unfortunately, reality is a bit different.
I believe that the most important factor is our depth. In the long run and, the regular season is a long run, it will be the deciding factor that'll propel us to the top of the EC.
I can't believe that many years of hard work of Danny and his stuff won't put this team at the top. He's already constructed a championship team once. I don't see any evidence that he can't do it again.
I believe coach Brad will find the most efficient ways and players combinations that put our team at the top.

AK

I had a patient in Arizona in 1978 who used to be a trainer for the greyhounds at the Amado, AZ track. When I fixed him up he wondered what I could do for his dogs, and then I would work on them too. He told me a secret of dog racing. Always get to know the health of the dogs before placing any bets. We would go to the track. and he would point out several dogs in the races. One he said had a bad cough, another a gimpy paw. He knew all the trainers and they talked amongst themselves. One day he coached me on placing bets, and I won $60 off a $2 bet.

The point is, in a contest, you've got to know the health of the contestants. This is a long season, and it is way too early to know who will be on the court come April, May, and June. I really like how our guys are coming around now and have high hopes for Gordon. If Theis stays healthy, he could be a serious asset too. Ditto for all the others. My money - or lack thereof - is still on the Celtics, but how this season turns out is really in the hands of the basketball gods That's what makes the Celtics of the Russell era so remarkable. Such consistent excellence over so many years.

worcester wrote:I had a patient in Arizona in 1978 who used to be a trainer for the greyhounds at the Amado, AZ track. When I fixed him up he wondered what I could do for his dogs, and then I would work on them too. He told me a secret of dog racing. Always get to know the health of the dogs before placing any bets. We would go to the track. and he would point out several dogs in the races. One he said had a bad cough, another a gimpy paw. He knew all the trainers and they talked amongst themselves. One day he coached me on placing bets, and I won $60 off a $2 bet.

The point is, in a contest, you've got to know the health of the contestants. This is a long season, and it is way too early to know who will be on the court come April, May, and June. I really like how our guys are coming around now and have high hopes for Gordon. If Theis stays healthy, he could be a serious asset too. Ditto for all the others. My money - or lack thereof - is still on the Celtics, but how this season turns out is really in the hands of the basketball gods That's what makes the Celtics of the Russell era so remarkable. Such consistent excellence over so many years.

worcester

Fantastic record for the Celts - greatly assisted by the fact that there was no free agency and only 8 or 9 teams in 10 of the 13 years.

swish

All very good information everyone.  

Best move to date...Smart Start.  And add the fact that he has a very smooth 3-point shot that is going in more and more regularly.  

Biggest obstacle to overcome...Brad Stevens getting the Championship monkey off his back or lack thereof.  Goes back to the Butler days and his brush with the back-to-back NCAA Finals.  Close but no cigar.  I know they are two totally different types of championships but they are championships nonetheless.  And our start out of the gates through the first 20 games was beginning to look like he saw a ghost.  

The difference was he didn't have the horses in the barn at Butler to beat a Duke like he does now and has been involved from Day One in the process of helping build this monster.  And it is a very carefully constructed monster for the last 6 years.  

Doc Rivers said it best.  Everybody wants to win.  No team, player, organization wants to win any more or less than you do.  Now Brad's on the big stage again.  Except now the light is on him all the way through the season.  No one knew who Butler was or gave a flip about them until the first Final 4.  The good news is he is as cool as a cucumber.  Never seen anything like it.  

Could he be the next....and I dare to throw this out there as I will get bombarded for thinking this so early on...but could he be the next Red Auerbach?!  Some of you lived through that era.  I came into cognizance just after the 60's and all the banners were up for that era.  One of our best at taking a swing at tha and answering that question is no longer with us.  He probably would have told me to get my head screwed back on straight because Brad/we haven't won jack yet, but then he would think about it and come up with some legit comparisons and that he at least liked my thinking.  

I wonder what Brad's office looks like...what he has hanging on his walls.  Banner 18?  Banners 18-25?  Just curious.  Remember that's how NASA got us to the moon in 10 years. NASA plastered pictures of the moon EVERYONE on the campus. Every wall, bathroom...EVERYWHERE. He acts like a man on a very big mission. The monkey's coming off.

db

Marcus' 3 point % is up to .321 Great for a batting average. Pete Runnels won batting titles with .320 and .326

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

NYCELT - I wish I had those connections now.
W

bobheckler wrote:It is not unreasonable to identify which horses are running well "at the quarter pole" and, 25 games into an 82 game season, we are already past the quarter pole.

Trying to figure out which horse runs well in the flats and which closes and finishes well, who has the top jockeys and guessing which horses will be ending up in the money at the finish line is what horse-racing is about too, it's not just about past performance.  I do believe Vegas does a nice piece of business predicated upon this.  That's all we're doing here, minus the $.  We're looking at how we've done, how we've done vs our peers and how we think we will do AND how we think they'll do.


bob


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Every summer I spend numerous hours handicapping thoroughbred horse racing - just a hobby to replace my Celtic interests. It's true that handicapping the races is quite similiar to handicapping basketball - but I believe there is one major difference - while the cold calulating numbers that dictate the selection process in horse racing exist in basketball as well, there is ( at least in a basketball forum dedicated to one team ) the added probability of home town bias creeping into the handicapping process.



  swish