Post Game - Detroit - Away

Very hard to beat any team in the NBA 3 times in a row. Moving on.

Three games in four nights with two of them on the road croaked us.  Tired legs weren't getting the shots over the front of the rim, not switching sharply, not rotating in time.  Kyrie Irving missed five shots at the rim.  Five!  He missed a total of ten shots in the paint.  He took a total of 25 fgas, hit 11 of them leaving 14 he missed and 10 of those were in the paint.  When was the last time that happened?!  When will be the next time it happens?  Maybe the next time we play 3 games in 4 nights and have to fly to two of them?

Except for Marcus Smart.  His heart just wouldn't accept the fact that we couldn't pull this out if we just worked a little harder and he almost pulled it off.  Players look to Kyrie for leadership but it's no wonder he watches Marcus Smart film for inspiration.  21 points on 6-11, 5-7 from 3 and 8 rebounds from our favorite non-shooter.

Blake Griffin just backed everybody down.  That was his game.  Out of his 16 fgas only 5 were outside the paint.  8 were at or within the restricted area.  No wonder he scored 27, he got to exactly where he wanted to get to.

They shot almost 49%.  This would have been a blow out if they had more than 80 fgas and less than 18 turnovers.

Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier were a combined 2-10 and 0-4 from 3.  This has become such a recurring refrain it can't just be shrugged off as fatigue or failing to meet expectations, not ours nor theirs.  Jaylen is shooting 41% on the season and 28% from 3 and TRo is shooting 38.6% and 36% from 3.  In TRo's case his numbers are even a slight improvement from his career averages, so maybe that is just expectations not being met after last year's playoff run but, nevertheless, WTF is going on here with these two?!  Is this because they started drinking their own bath water after last year?  As I said last night on the Game On! thread, I think their youth is showing.  It's not injuries as far as I know.

We have a new 2018-2019 winner in the Elfriid Payton Wacko Hairstyle Sweepstakes, Reggie Bullock.




We are now 19-11.  We are 9-8 on the road.  Do the math, 17 of our 30 games have been away.  Only the NY Knicks have played as many as 17 games on the road (and they're 5-12, we have a winning road record).  The season is 82 games long; 41 home, 41 away.  At some point the road will level out for us.

Rest will do us good.  A couple of nights sleeping in our own beds. We don't play until Wednesday vs Phoenix @ home.

http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071112




bob

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I'll try to make this brief.

A team that relies on 3 point shooting must shoot well or find other scoring options.

The Celtics lost 113-104.  That is a nine point loss.

Morris 0-6, Tatum 0-3, Hayward 0-4, Rozier 0-3, Brown 0-1

That's 0-17 from deep from 5 players.  If that combined group made 4-17 the Celtics would have won by 3.

I knew this game would be a challenge.  See my up next comments.  

The Celtics missed a lot of shots but at times they did not keep the ball moving to find the best shot.  

On defense we missed Al Horford.  Sometimes you have to go big and a combination of Horford and Baynes would have worked better.  But Al is not playing so you have to go with plan B.  Blake found himself isolated on smaller players all night.  I saw little help defense.  

The Celtics need to learn or figure out how to bring an effective double team.  Their switch all defense requires. it.  Secondly the Celtics could have used Williams more on Blake and kept Baynes on Drummond.  

To the Celtics credit they fought all the way to the final buzzer.

The Celtics have Sunday, Monday and Tuesday off before playing the Suns at home on Wednesday.  A few days off is a good thing for a team that has been on the road too much.

Bob, don't forget Smart's 3 steals as well. Jaylen may bnever get to replace Marcus in the starting lineup again, especially given how crappy he has played this season and how very well Marcus is playing. I love JB, but what a disappointment this year. I think it is 100% mental with him. How do you fix that? Conversely, Smart's game is 60% pure mental toughness.

I neglected to award a game ball.

It goes to Marcus Smart. The Celtics wasted a great game by Marcus. It was his best game of the season as he highs in both points and rebounds. And he had 3 assists and 3 steals and shot 5-7 from deep (wow) Best game of the year!

A bad shooting night (17% on threes) and you lose in the NBA. On to the next game hopefully to start another winning streak.

Detroit, when in sync., presents match-up problems for the Celtics because Drummond and Griffen are aggressive - too tough inside for our starters. A healthy Horford and Baynes might keep it respectable - especially in the playoffs. IMO, Williams should play more with Smart, Irving, choice of forwards, and shore up the middle, make bonehead plays in winter to shine in spring. Worcester, I'm no shrink, but I think Brown is befuddled because everyone's supposed to shoot the 3, and he wants his shot closer to the rim where his athleticism, rather than pure marksmanship will give him better odds. I think Brad should tell him to worry less about the line and more about the hoop. Hawk

wideclyde wrote:A bad shooting night (17% on threes) and you lose in the NBA.  On to the next game hopefully to start another winning streak.

I think you meant 27% from 3.

Yes, Brown is befuddled. Sad.

Yes, Brown is befuddled. Sad.

dboss,

You are correct. 27% last night from deep.

Could have been a typo or a math error, but a mistake either way.

but still, 27% is not usually enough to win often in the NBA either.

wideclyde wrote:dboss,

You are correct.  27% last night from deep.

Could have been a typo or a math error, but a mistake either way.  

but still, 27% is not usually enough to win often in the NBA either.

That's right 27% is no where close to being acceptable

That's why I put extra, extra effort into my honeymoon night.

for some reason, this game seemed like a 3 point lead was like 10 points and a 7 point lead was like a 20 point lead and basically insurmountable.

Of course, throwing up enough bricks to build a shopping mall from deep didn't help either. Detroit just played better. Kept going to the basket...getting fouled....And 1's...broken record Boston...let it sink in. 2-ball, then 3-ball...not the reverse!

Threes have an EV of 1.05 points while the 2pt shots have and EV of .918 points which explains the plethora of the three ball shooting of late. (FT's come in with an EV of .764) I've long forgotten my math/probability courses but there has to be a way to calculate the maximum scoring output from at least those two variables of 2pt and 3pt shots taken/made, etc. I'm sure teams have already calculated it and know the right mix for their respective teams.

db

Seems to me that free throws should count for more than 3 or 2 point attempts because they are made with so much more frequency. If the average for shooting 3's is .333% and  the average for shooting free throws is .750% would not the fritos result in more scoring in the long run, especially when added to the points gained from 2 point attempts? Usually there are more fouls on two points attempts driving to the basket than on 3 point attempts - except when James Harden is taking them.

Has anyone done the math on this? How often do two point attempts result in fouls given?

EV on FT's is 1pt X .764=0.764.  I'm sure there has to be a multivariate model out there the NBA has run that would include 3's, 2's, Dunks, And 1's, Fouls leading to FT's, Technicals, etc. that shows the optimal mix.

db

thanks db