Re: The Official Ray Allen thread

[Sam]

Rosalie,

It's all about the quality of a possible replacement. Right now, I don't see anyone on the roster who could give the Celtics starters close to what Ray gives. Obviously that could change, although with bigs so much of a priority, the chances seem slim this year.

The longer Ray's situation stretches out, the more concerned I am that he could leave. I hope it doesn't happen. It's a lot easier to spend a few dollars (or even an extra year) on him that to free up another hefty amount under the Collective Bargaining Agreement (or make a trade) to get a suitable replacement.

Sam

[bigpygme]

Sam -

"Show me a suitable replacement for Ray as a starter, and I'll rethink it. But don't show me anyone who's not deadly from outside." But Ray wasn't deadly from outside too much during the playoffs -- one time he was on another planet, but usually it was sometimes good and sometimes not.

and i still think it was spending up to 45 min of defending stars and at least one superstar (and Ray's defense excelled, i thought) that took the legs out from under him, and his offense suffered. he's in great condition, but (and perhaps it's signs of age) he can't consistently do that at both ends of the floor anymore. give him a break - let him spark off the bench. he's with the 2nd unit a lot anyway, and i see it also as a chance to be a game-changer jumpintg in with the first unit.

if not this year, then next, but sometime, this could be a great scenario. it could also be a pipe dream !!

so, one of your points is, who's starting in his stead? who's going to spread the floor? hell, i don't know - those are great Q's, and i'm hoping DA may have a solution. he'll be needing one sometime before too long, anyway ... (though i hope not TOO soon ! )

Michael

[bobc33]

This won't go over well, but unless Ray will sign with the Cs for very small money I'd let him go. I'm skeptical he can bring it on both ends of the court anymore, and I'll say again I have never seen another upper echelon Celtic player have more absolute stinkers in playoff games than Ray has the past three post-seasons. Nobody even close to him in that regard.

Love the guy, love his effort and professionalism, but I think his days as a quality player are over.

[Sam]

Michael,

In terms of floor balance and spacing, Ray WAS deadly from the outside throughout the playoffs. As evidence, please refer to William Felton Russell's Rule #5: Invisible Man. Basically, the rule states that the threat of an action can be as effective as the action itself. A man who sets a record with his actions represents the threat of repeating that action at any time. He must be played for that threat because ignoring the threat could be fatal.

To some extent, I believe his inability to hit his shot consistently was due at least as much to a slump and good defense as it was to fatigue. Because, in all but the record-setting game, he was as cold at the beginning of games (when he was fresh) as later in games. And, after playing 40 minutes a game, mostly against Kobe, for seven games, he nonetheless hit a big three near the end of Game 7.

There are very few people now in the league who are as consistently respected for the threat of deadly perimeter shooting as Ray Allen. As I stated earlier, show me one who's available and I might rethink about foregoing all the advantages of retaining Ray as a starter. It's virtually mathematically impossible for Danny to find a solution for replacing Ray in addition to fulfilling the Celtics need for big men. They can pay Ray whatever it takes to retain him; but they're severely limited in what they could pay anyone else which is why it's virtually impossible to attract a really good free agent outside shooter who's also capable of defending great players. And it would be difficult to trade anyone of real value from the very small roster they currently have, without exposing another vulnerability.

Limiting his minutes certainly makes sense, but moving him to the bench is not required for that to happen. He can be substituted for in his starter's role earlier than before. And, as a matter of fact, it could be argued that his additional duties with the bench were the main cause of his fatigue. Better to let the bench develop a (hopefully uptempo) personality of its own and take some lumps in the process of development.

So I say again, show me the replacement starter. It's not even a great question. It's just an obvious one.

Sam

[sinus007]

Sam,
Thank you very much for such eloquent summary of RA situation. 100% agree with you.
My thought about putting RA on the bench had 2 points: a) limit his play time and b) leadership for the second unit; if he plays with both starters and bench -> too many minutes on the floor.
But I'm pretty sure there're more ways to utilize his current abilities.
I hope DA et al see the situation with RA as it is and give him 3 years. Unless DA has somebody like DWade up his sleeve

AK

[bigpygme]

thanks for your reply, Sam. and i still think it was a "great" question - even if to you it's an obvious one, it wasn't so clear to me until you said it.

yes, Ray is always a threat, they (the Bad Guys) can't ignore him, and did hit a clutch three in Game 7.

But so did Rondo, fierce competitor that he is. certainly he's not treated as a threat yet, but i think he's going to develop into one. several of the more mature pt guards of today, who are now considered threats to hit em, couldn't shoot a jumper when they were young and getting started either.

Anyway, you think it was just a 'slump', plus great D, that kept Ray from being more successful?
His stellar defense aside, i think i'm watching a guy who's getting streaky instead of steady in his offensive production. that seemed clear in the jolting transition from his record-setting game to the next one, when he couldn't hit the barn, and even subsequently when he was just not much of an offensive force.
i'm still a little surprised that the 6th man role doesn't appeal to you, though you've explained your reasons why. so i guess we're going to have to agree to disagree on Ray's best role for next season, or the one after ...

best Regards, Sam. i always pay attention when you're posting ...

Michael

[Sam]

Michael,

I'm not sure what is meant by the reference to Rondo just because he happened to hit one clutch three. There could be no worse comparison because the way defense play Rondo is the precise antithesis of how they play Ray.

I don't think it was "just" a slump and great D that kept Ray from being more successful. But I do believe people are giving Fisher far too little credit for dogging Ray all over the floor.

I look at a 6th man as far more than a good player who happens to play with the bench. One of the qualities of a good 6th man is predictable steadiness in fulfilling his role. That very need runs counter to the streakiness you attribute to Ray. Another quality of a good 6th man is that he's an instant catalyst for the other guys on the court. That's not Ray's style. Ray's a rhythm player who fits into the flow, and benefits from it, rather than creating it. He could help open up the floor for other bench players (as he does for the starters), but otherwise, he's not really an enabler of others. With the bench, he's more of a stabilizer than a leader.

The role of any player on a team is a matter of tradeoffs. Which role for Ray will offer the best net plus for the Celtics?

If he remains a starter:

• There's less disruption to a unit that will already be at least 20% disrupted through much of the season. That means one fewer position for which discontinuity and development of chemistry will be issues as they were last season.

• His reputation will be even more important than his performance in any given game in spacing the floor for teammates because opponents will never know when he could go off.

• His minutes can be curtailed simply by making him the first starter substituted for rather than the last one.

• IF he is more streaky nowadays, being in a more familiar setting (with guys like Rondo and KG who have a great sense for when to kick it out to Ray) will put him in the best possible position to succeed as much as possible. Generally speaking, bench players are not endowed with that kind of instinctive sensitivity because they're more concerned about not screwing up.

• And, most important of all, no one can point me to an alternative.

• The more deliberate natural style of the starters will create less wear-and-tear (per minute played) than the very likely helter skelter play that could become a trademark for a younger, faster bench.

• Ray gives us a good starting player for whom we have the money to spend. That money's simply not available to pay a free agent without weakening our big man possibilities. And you can be certain that, if other teams see the Celtics as vulnerable because of Ray's departure, they'll hold the Celtics up in any trade like nothing you ever saw.

If he becomes a bench player:

• He can help space the floor for other bench players.

• He can help stabilize the bench play through his experience, although not necessarily through his performance because he's not the greatest ballhandler in the world.

• That's about it.

Now that I've taken the time to add things up, I only regret that I wasn't more emphatic in my earlier comments. Of course, none of this means Ray shouldn't move to the bench at some point down the road. I just think they have to develop or bring in someone of quality to replace him. I don't see either of those possibilities occurring at the present time—unless they skimp on getting one or two good bigs to replace Perk/Sheed(?).

Could Fernandez replace Ray with the starters? Replacing a 2009-10 48% shooting rate with a 38% one, combined with Euro-honed defense somehow doesn't excite me. And who would have to go in trade for Rudy?

I don't think that trying to replace Ray as a starter even comes close to a realistic alternative at this point. We'll see. And we have to be prepared for the possibility that he'll leave. Then we will have a hold in the starting lineup, and the same lack of resources to fill that hole that we now have to get a good shooting guard.

Sam

[bigpygme]

good points all ...

was wondering about Fernandez ... thx for your thoughts.

is Kyle Korver's D atrocious, or can he learn it ? (or is he already gone somewhere ...)

and i mentioned ROndo, not as a diversion, but b/c he hit a potentially impact 3 like Ray did - ahhh, but too late, as it turns out. rats.

best,

Michael

[Sam]

Michael,

I googled "Kyle Korver news" and got nothing except the fact that he's a free agent. As a 6'' 7" SG, he'd finally give the Celtics some real height at the position. He's one of those guys who shoots better from behind the arc (53% last season) than overall (something like 48%). If they could get him, depending on how well he plays defense, I could see him as someone they might break in with the bench and be ready to promote him to starter status if Ray falters. Who knows? Korver could be one of those people who has played fourth fiddle for years and is ready to take it to another level. I just don't know anything about his defense.

Celts on NBA-TV now.

Sam

[bigpygme]

thx - when i get a break from work i should check out the NBA TV schedule and catch some action ...

[babyskyhook]

Vyacheslav Kravstov

SAM

What the hell would have Johnny Most done with that!!

Something like the "big Commie" comes to mind

beat

Classic. That would have been awesome.


"The Crybaby's back in town, he drives down the lane and is fouled hard by the Big Commie!"

[babyskyhook]

Korver could be one of those people who has played fourth fiddle for years and is ready to take it to another level. I just don't know anything about his defense.

Sam- the reason you don't know about his defense is because he doesn't play any. I've seen a lot of Korver since he came to Utah, as the lakers have played the Jazz almost 30 times over the last 3 years. Streaky, but can light it up when on. No D and not a good passer. And I don't think it's a matter of not trying on D- not playing for JErry SLoan. I think he simply doesn't have the ability to guard people. He would be a gigantic drop-off from Ray.

[babyskyhook]

Rosalie,

It's all about the quality of a possible replacement. Right now, I don't see anyone on the roster who could give the Celtics starters close to what Ray gives. Obviously that could change, although with bigs so much of a priority, the chances seem slim this year.

The longer Ray's situation stretches out, the more concerned I am that he could leave. I hope it doesn't happen. It's a lot easier to spend a few dollars (or even an extra year) on him that to free up another hefty amount under the Collective Bargaining Agreement (or make a trade) to get a suitable replacement.

Sam

Sam-

I agre with you on both points. I felt like the Cs best move was to resign Pierce and Ray, even if it was for a bit more $$$ and more years than they would ideally want to, because it all comes back to who would they get instead. If they let Pierce and Ray both walk, there was an argument (although a flawed one in my mind) to going after a max FA, but I always though the best course for the Cs was to resign both guys and Tony Allen.

Now that Pierce is back, re-signing Ray becomes even more important, as the Cs will be a bit over the cap once Pierce's deal is included.

The Cs are much better off slightly overpaying for Ray in $$$ and years than in letting him go, as they would have only the mle, vet min and (maybe) Wallace's deal to fill holes at the 5, the 2 and the bench. Much better to be filling less holes than more.


And I do think Ray will get at least one very good offer. If I were the Bulls, I would make a hard run at Ray, as he would benefit them in 4 ways:

1. Outside shooting they desperately need.
2. Solid defense, which the team will be built on w/ Thibs and their personnel
3. Veteran leadership on a very young team.
4. Adding Ray would weaken the Cs- one of their main Eastern rivals.


The Bulls are the team I would be most worried about. How is Ray's relationship with Thib's ?

[RosalieTCeltics]

Not as good as it is with Doc and Danny. There was a guy from Sporting News on the comcast channel tonight. He also felt that there would be one really good offer to Ray, that he would go back to Danny and ask him what they could work out. I think they both want to see what he is worth in the open market. He also felt that TA would be back, as they really do need him. He did mention that Jermaine O'Neil said that he would consider playing for the Celtics, Mavs or one other team, I can't remember which.

I really think it is that Danny just doesn't want to overpay! Get him signed before he gets ticked off and signs with someone else!!!

[worcester]

Rosa;ie, After reflecting on the matter of Sha on the Celtics, I think you're right. He'd insist on starting and would slow the game down. Not good chemistry for the Celtics.

[Sam]

There's no question that the Celtics have the money to meet anyone's price for Ray. So it only makes sense to let the market decide what the Celtics will pay him. Then neither party can have buyer's or seller's remorse because the matter of price will basically have been taken out of their hands. I actually feel more optimistic about his remaining here when I think of that logic.

Sam

[tjmakz]

As per ESPN.

[jeb]

ready for the rubber match ol son?

[jeb]

Allen back with Celtics, completes Big Three
by Gary Washburn Globe Staff July 7, 2010 09:39 PM

A source close to the negotiations confirmed tonight that Ray Allen will return to the Celtics on a two-year, $20 million contract with a player option for the second year. It means that the Celtics will make one or perhaps two final title runs with the Big Three intact as Paul Pierce agreed to a four-year contract extension Saturday.

Allen had been wooed by contending teams but has decided to remain with the Celtics and has the flexibility of opting out of his contract after this season and becoming a free agent.

[jeb]

how ya like them apples mrs t?

[tjmakz]

It will be hard for Boston and LA to get back this year, but that would be a great matchup again.
The East is going to be much harder this year.
They already have taken Amare and Boozer from the West.
Look out for GS if they get Lee without giving up Monta Ellis.
They are going to score at will.

[RosalieTCeltics]

Now I can sleep tonight!!! I wonder why he only signed for two years, with the option being his at the end of the year? That is hardly the security I would think he wanted. HOWEVER, I will be happy with what it is.

What's next????????????

[tjmakz]

jeb,

It looks like Boston is very close to signing Jermaine O'Neal.
He is a much better fit for Boston then Shaq or Kwame Brown.
He will use up their mid-level exception but they needed to spend the MLE on a big man.

[jeb]

I saw that tj and I like the signing for the dough. Until Perk comes back he is a guy with pretty good hands that can score the ball and bang inside.

I think Rondo will love him. I dont think he is a savior but very good for the dough and an upgrade over a very slow out of shape sheed.

I wonder what it would be like if sheed came back too.

[tjmakz]

Do you want Sheed back or have his salary available for a trade?

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