Who Should Danny Pick With #14?

I realize there already is a thread for the draft.  I also realize I've been saying we're not looking like Danny is going to keep #14, based upon the reports that he has already used up 3 of his maximum 10 visits with 2nd rounders and none with any players projected to go in the 10-20 range, nor in the 22-28 range.  And that's just the ones we know about.  A total of 7 visits for 2 picks doesn't sound like many to me, especially when one of them is a lottery pick.

Having said all this we can still play the parlor game of trying to guess who Danny will pick at 14, assuming he picks at 14 because, let's face it, none of us have any freaking idea what Danny is really thinking.  I don't think he'd tell his mother what he had for lunch that day.

Sooooo.  Let's assume that he's not drafting/trading all the way up to where he needs to be to draft a good big, like Okongwu.  That leaves wings and guards.  Once again, assuming Trader Danny isn't warming up his vocal chords, we're already up to our eyeballs in wings.  That leaves guards.

Who should it be?  The three names mentioned in the 14 range are Aaron Nesmith, Cole Anthony and Kira Lewis, Jr.  Every mock draft has Nesmith being gone before 14, but let's include him here because maybe that's who Danny is trading up to get.


Aaron Nesmith - 6'6", 210#, almost 21 years old sophomore.  SG.

Projections:
#13 - nbadraft.net
#12 - mynbadraft.com
#11 - tankathon.com

http://www.tankathon.com/players/aaron-nesmith

52% from 3 in college.
82% from the line.







Cole Anthony - 6'3", 185#, 20 years old.  PG.

Projections:
#12 - nbadraft.net
# - mynbadraft.com
# - tankathon.com

35% from 3.
75% from the line.
4.0 asts/game vs 3.4 TO/game







Kira Lewis, Jr. - 6'3", 170#, PG.

Projections:
#23 - nbadraft.net
#19 - mynbadraft.com
#22 - Tankathon.com

36% from 3
80% from the line.
5.2 assists/game vs 3.5 TO/game






No multiple choice, this is for the #14 pick only.  Vote Cancelling is allowed, so you can reconsider.


Bob


.

So, kdp and sinus are voting 'Other'.

dboss wrote:I have a guarantee for you.

We have no f**king idea who Danny will pick.

I agree with Bob that Danny will move #14 in a trade.  But it gets a lot more complicated than just trading a pick or picks.

The Celtics projected tax bill for 2020-21 is $16 million.  I do not see "The Owners"  throwing money at this team like they are attending some strip club event.  

The Celtics will be around $10 million over the apron.  That means no sign and trades.  If Kanter opts out that would put us at around $5 million over.  According to Spotrac,  DT and JG have non guaranteed deals for $5 million and $1.5 million respectively.  The Celtics hold a 1.75 million club option on Semi.  Being over the apron also limits the MLE.

There are limited options for Danny to make a trade unless one of the core guys are heading out the door.  His 3 draft picks are around $7.6 million for salary purposes.   With Kanter opting out, we cannot trade him.  So if you were targeting a player who makes around $13 million per year,  you could trade DT and the 3 picks.  Capela will make $16 million next year so you could do the same but would need to add another player into the mix.  A 3rd team would probably come into the mix on a deal like that.

I do believe that the 14th pick could yield one player who could fill a need off the bench but not a center upgrade.  That means a center upgrade would need to come from a trade.  And the partial MLE could target a veteran rotation guy.

New roster top 10 trading all picks (except 2nd round flyer) and players

Capela
Hayward
Tatum
Brown
Kemba
Smart
Veteran Scorer
R Williams
Grant Williams
Wanamaker

Dboss,

I know you live in the Atlanta area.  What's the fascination with Capela?   I don't get it. He's a little taller than Theis, but not much.  Weighs the same.

He takes zero 3s.  Literally.  He has taken a grand total of 2 3pt fgas since he came into the league, NONE in the last 2 years.  Imagine that, a player on a Mike Antoni team that doesn't even take a 3!  That's pretty bad and is completely out of touch with the rest of the league and where it's going.  Theis took 96 3pt fgas last year and hit 33.3%.

He's a career 52.6% frito shooter.  Awful.  Theis, on the other hand, is a career 75% frito shooter.

Their eFG% is comparable, despite 72% of Capela's points coming from 0-3 feet.  He's a dunker, and that's great, but he's a one-trick pony.  His fg% from 3-10' is only 33.3%.  That's awful.

The stat that people look at with Capela is his shotblocking, pretty much nothing else.  He's a career 2.0 blocks/36mpg.  Last year he averaged 1.8 blocks/game, but he played 32.8mpg.  Theis averaged 1.9 blocks/36mpg, but he only played 24.1mpg.  So, almost the same efficiency, he just didn't play the same number of minutes; or did he?  In fact, Theis played MORE minutes than Capela.  Capela played 1279 minutes  in only 39 games.  Theis played 1566 minutes in 65 games.  So, who's more durable?

Lastly, their contracts.  Theis is a steal at $5M.  Capela will make 17.5M next year and is under contract for 2 more years after that, with increasing annual payments.

As I said, I just don't see where there's an upgrade here, but you watch him more than I do, I'm sure.

And you're absolutely right on your guarantee. We have NO idea what Danny will do.


Bob


.

NYCelt wrote:Cow,

I only saw Wiseman play on TV once, a loss vs Oregon.

He only played 3 games at Memphis because of being ruled ineligible over that deal with Hardaway paying him outside of NCAA rules.

What I saw in a small sample, and what I've read about how he has crushed it against all top NCAA competition he's faced in scrimmages and workouts is enough to convince me he starts from day 1 for most center-starved NBA teams. 7'1" and now somewhere between 240 and 250 lbs gets him into the size range he'll need.

Do I think the Celtics have any shot at him, or do I even really think they would ever consider making the deal needed to get him? No way. I just listed a deal to select him as my third choice alternative to the options in the poll. I also admittedly had some fun with the thought of heads exploding over my pointing out the fact that the only way to get what appears to be the best big in the draft would be to part with a significant asset. Yeah, I know, I'm such a tease.

In the realm of reality I'm sticking with Carey and/or Stewart.

Regards

NYCelt,

Why pick Carey with #14?

nbadraft.net has him going at #15. Ok, so in that case you would have to use 14 on him but...
mynbadraft.com has him going 27 and Tankathon has him going 30 (to us). Sports Illustrated has him 23rd.

Yahoo Sports doesn't have him in the 1st round, nor does NBC Sports, nor does Yardbarker.


So, there's one mock draft board that has him in play at #14, three that have him in the lower half of the 1st round and three that don't even draft him.

Based upon the film I've watched Carey is an old school center. Big and completely paint-bound. No outside game. Basically he's a young Enes Kanter and Enes Kanter, a #4 pick originally, is now a MLE journeyman in this NBA.

I'd say take Carey with with the later picks (if we still have them and, based upon who Danny has been interviewing it looks like we will, albeit Danny talking mostly to point guards). He's big and he'll work hard on the glass and that's what Kanter does for us. With a 26 or 30 pick he'll be cheaper than Kanter too, even at Kanter's current contract. Unfortunately, at 67%, he can't shoot fritos like Kanter. That is a big limiter for a player that plays in the paint and will get a lot of contact.

Another idea for a later 1st round pick is Aleksej Pokusevski. 7'0", 210#. A toothpick, for sure, but he's only 18 and is another Porzingis-like unicorn. Draft-and-stash him for a year or two, let him gain some more experience and put on some man weight, and then bring him over.


Bob


.

NYCelt wrote:Bob,

I'm thinking Carey goes top 20, 25 tops, therefore my wish list at #14 since we don't pick again until 26. He is an old school center; a rim protector who can score, board and defend well in the paint, which is what I think is missing with the current roster. To me, he also fits that NBA-Ready label well. I've been on the big bandwagon with Carey and Stewart, thinking 14 and 26.

I'm always fascinated by how players move up and down the mock draft boards every year. Especially when they haven't played for an extended period, or are far between workouts. I see Cole Anthony skidding, supposedly because he didn't have the season he was expected to have. Mind-boggling to me, is that his skid down the mock boards started several months after his season ended. Kind of like St. Christopher losing sainthood a few centuries after his death and canonization, or Pluto losing it's status as a planet. What exactly happened while nothing was happening?

So, anyway, I put 'em where I think they should go, often ignoring the mock boards. I sometimes think a number of the writers on the boards haven't sat down to catch a game, on TV or in person, when their commentary bears little resemblance to what you see. I hit a pick right about every decade, so I think my record is probably about the same as most of theirs.

Regards

NYCelt,

St. Christopher is/was the Patron Saint of travelers. He just kept moving, it's what he does, no surprise here.

And a giveaway, for all those early adopters and bandwagoners, should have been that Pluto was a dog. Water, especially when drunk out of the toilet bowl, tends to find its level.


Bob


.