If Still Available @ 6, Should Danny pick Embiid?

Simple enough question, I think.

Assume we still have the pick, of course.



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I voted no. This stress fracture in the navicular bone scares me. Boston needs to use the no. 6 pick either as a part of a deal to get a proven player or to draft a solid player with low risk to add to their young core. It would be a huge gamble to take Embiid.

Yes, we should draft Embiid and let him get healthy, perhaps returning to play in March.

Hi,
I'm not an MD so I go with my gut - no.
Celtics got lucky (so far) recently with "damaged goods" Sully. Let's not tempt it again. Also, when they say fractured foot Yao Ming comes to mind....

AK

Navicular Stress Fracture
By Jonathan Cluett, M.D.


Definition: Navicular stress fractures are a common foot injury in athletes. Navicular stress fractures tend to occur in athletes who sport requires explosive movements and sudden changes in direction--commonly injured athletes include high jumpers, sprinters, basketball, and soccer players.
Athletes typically have vague midfoot pain just beyond the ankle. The pain typically hurts most during and just after athletic activity and resolves with a period of rest. In more severe cases, patients may even have pain with more routine activities such as walking. There is usually no history of an acute injury, rather most athletes describe a worsening, nagging pain. Unfortunately, this often leads to a delay in diagnosis, and while it usually causes no long-term problems, it does delay the start of treatment.

Diagnosis of a navicular stress fracture is suspected when athletes have pain directly over the navicular bone. There may be a small degree of swelling in the area. Sometimes the navicular stress fracture is seen on x-ray, but often requires a bone scan to be seen. CT scans are also helpful to better identify the fracture pattern and to evaluate for healing. Treatment of a navicular stress fracture is with a short-leg cast and crutches. Usually six weeks in a cast is sufficient, but some patients may require longer. In a small group of patients, the navicular stress fracture will not heal and may require surgery. Conservative treatment, however, is most often effective.

SI Now: Joel Embiid unlikely to be No. 1 pick

Source: SI

On Thursday's SI Now, SI.com "The Point Forward" writer Ben Golliver discusses Joel Embiid's injury and how it impacts his draft stock.

The news that Kansas center Joel Embiid has a stress fracture in the navicular bone in his right foot will have a significant impact on next week's NBA draft. Embiid, the projected No. 1 pick in SI.com's latest mock draft, is expected to slip several spots, maybe more.

"With that type of injury," said a Western Conference executive, "I wouldn't take him in the top-ten."

The injury information was supplied to reporters by Embiid's agent, Arn Tellem, who added that Embiid will undergo surgery to repair the injury on Friday.

The navicular bone, which is located at the top of the foot, above the arch, is a critical bone for anything that requires power, running or jumping. And it is a familiar one in the NBA.

Yao Ming suffered a stress fracture in the bone in 2008 and again in 2009, and it was the primary cause for Yao's forced retirement in 2011. Bill Walton battled fractures of the navicular bone that robbed him of all but 14 games between 1978 and 1982 and ultimately forced him into retirement. Zydrunas Ilgauskas dealt with a navicular fracture early in his career but went on to finish with nine healthy seasons.

More recently, Grizzlies guard Quincy Pondexter underwent surgery to repair a tarsal navicular stress fracture in his right foot last December and missed the rest of the season.

Based on the information, it's impossible to predict a league-wide reaction to Embiid's injury. There are too many variables: The success of the surgery, the estimated time for recovery, the projected long term prognosis. To date, Embiid's only reported injury has been his back, an injury that caused him to miss the Big 12 tournament and the NCAA tournament. Tellem told ESPN that the foot injury occurred within the last few days.



According to Dr. Kenneth Hunt, an Assistant Professor of Orthopedics at Stanford, a stress fracture in a navicular bone is "a classic overuse injury" found often in basketball and volleyball players.

"The most common treatment is to make small incisions to place one or two screws across the fracture to stabilize it," Hunt said. "If the fracture is displaced, a bone graft can accelerate healing."

Hunt noted that despite the high profile examples of athletes who have battled recurrences of a navicular fracture, "the healing rates of this fracture are high."
"The majority of these injuries will heal completely," Hunt said. "Getting to it early is a good prognostic sign. In his case, it appears it was treated early and appropriately. In the cases I have seen, the athletes that have recurrent fractures have high arches and stiff feet. They can develop large spurs in the adjacent bones. But again, to the majority of athletes this will heal and not be an issue in the future."

As for recovery time, Hunt said that players generally resume basketball activities in 4-6 months and are ready to play in nine months, though in some cases it can be closer to a year.

Just the possibility that Embiid could miss parts of next season could be enough to drive several teams at the top away, multiple executives told SI.com.
Take Cleveland. Multiple sources familiar with the Cavaliers thinking believed that Cleveland GM David Griffin was leaning toward using the top pick on Embiid. But Cleveland, which has missed the postseason every year since 2010 and has an impatient owner in Dan Gilbert, may not be willing to roll the dice on Embiid now.
In Milwaukee with the second overall pick, Bucks GM John Hammond and his staff were retained by new owners Wes Edens and Marc Lasry but it's hard to see Hammond taking such a big risk with a pick that Milwaukee desperately needs to pan out. The Bucks got a steal last year in impressive rookie forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and a dynamic wing player like Andrew Wiggins could look even more appealing now, and would give the team a strong young perimeter tandem.

MAHONEY: Teams facing pivotal offseasons

Things get interesting at No. 3 with Philadelphia. The Sixers have a gaping hole at center and a dearth of talent, well ... everywhere. Philadelphia has been operating under the assumption Embiid would be gone by the time it picked, according to a source. A healthy Embiid paired with 2013 lottery pick Nerlens Noel, the athletic power forward who missed all of last season with a knee injury, would form a frightening defensive frontcourt. But Sixers GM Sam Hinkie was an executive in Houston during Yao's run with the Rockets. He's keenly aware of the devastating effects of this injury.

Again, it's difficult to to determine just how far Embiid will fall until after the surgery, when teams will take a long look at his medicals. Either way though, Embiid stands to lose some substantial money. Per the NBA's rookie scale, the top overall pick will make $4.6 million next season. The third pick will make $3.7 million. The sixth will earn $2.7 million. It's a tough injury for a promising young player.

112288

Trade the pick, Danny.

Sam

I think I'd take Embiid. He's the best opportunity for a dominant center using the 6th pick.

Hey Kyle,

Where are you living now?  Approximately...not looking for a street address.

Don't I recall when you were a freshman in college back in the BDC days?  I was always impressed by your logic, both then and now.  Glad you've joined us.

Sam

I voted no based on what Worcester said in another thread about the injury.

I have no faith that any NBA team (Celtics included) will allow him to skip his rookie year, picked that high. I see them instead pushing for a "quicker" healing and therefore more chance of long term issues.

now IF he were to fall to #17..........I jump all over him there, as a pick we can sit out for the entire year to heal properly.

I voted 'yes'.

My preference, actually, would be to trade down to 8th or 9th, pick up a 2nd rounder, and then then take him but that wasn't the question.  The question was "if he's available at 6, do we take him?".  Not "would you trade down or trade the pick?" or anything else.

Why would I take him?  A couple of reasons:

1.  If he gets healthy (and as we saw with Sully and his back red flags, Danny can be very patient) he's potentially the next KG.

2.  If he gets healthy we will be contending in a few years.  If we take any of the rest of the usual suspects (Smaht, Vonleh, Gordon, Exum, Randle) we'll be in 4th or 5th place in the EC a few years from now.  I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm actually going to agree with something Gary Tanguay is saying, "go big or go home".  I hope I never have to do this again, because Tanguay is an idiot.

3.  I'm leaning upon two posts by Worcester (for those of you who don't know, our Worcester is a highly respected and published Doctor of Eastern Medicine) from another thread, where he said "This is on his instep. With proper nutrition and therapy - and not too many games played in 2014-15 - he could solidify his bone structure and be a force for years to come. " and the second post was "Considering that the best doctors in America are in Boston, that Danny tends to take a long view of player development, that he would probably follow doctors orders, and that he would let Embiid sit the 3-9 months needed for him to recover properly, then yes, I'd draft him at # 6. But if Danny plans to rush him into action (doubtful) then NO."  We're not going to be contending next year, no matter what, so Danny can afford to wait and I believe he would.

4.  None of the other usual suspects really fit the profile of what we need, not short-term nor long-term.

Unfortunately, Arn Tellem didn't help things by making it look like he was engaged in a cover up of Embiid's true physical condition.



bob



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If he drops to 6, 5 GMs have decided not to take a chance. I think I'd pass as well; no sense in acquiring an Oden, Bynum or Ming, although I'm no doctor. I do think the 6th pick could yield a very good player and have a gut feeling Embiid is star-crossed. I'd definitely prefer Vonleh, but minus some kind of deal, he's out of reach. I've warmed to Smart, still like Gordon, would take a chance on Exum. Hawk

I voted no.

Make that no stinkin' way.

If 5 execs pass on him there is something seriously wrong.

It's starting to pile up.  First the back injury, then reports surface that he had back issues in high school.  Now the foot injury and surgery, which, according to W, who unlike most people actually knows about these things, is not normally the treatment at this point.

This alters the strategy significantly for the lottery teams.  In our case we now essentially end up with what was the 7th pick.  I would consider packaging 6, maybe 17, or one of our future high picks and at least one of Sully/Bass/Kelly/Bradley (sign-and-trade?) and see if Orlando or Utah bites.  I'm not sure how salaries work out in these deals but there must be some possibilies with what we have.  I then look at Vonleh or Smart.  Several power forwards around, so if we keep 17 and trade a future pick I don't fear putting Sully on the table.  There is still a chance his NBA career isn't going to be real long anyway.

Extra incentive for taking Smart; if he does turn out to be the point guard many think he is (although I still like him at 2-guard), he or Rondo become trade or sign-and-trade material in a package for the center we all lust after as soon as season's end.

There's some of your your fireworks we've heard are coming on draft day.

DeAndre Jordan was the 35th pick.  That means that almost every GM, not just 5, passed on him at least once (I'm assuming there were some teams that year that didn't have a first round pick and therefore didn't pass on him, but they could have traded into the 1st round if they really wanted him).

The draft is a crap shoot.  It's a crap shoot on transferable talent (see Beasley, Michael and Kidd-Gilchrist, Michael and Melo, Fab) and it's a crap shoot on health (see Walton, Bill and Oden, Greg; both of whom were completely healthy and strong when drafted).

Sully dropped from a mid-lottery pick (8-10) down to #21 because of medical issues.  Any complaints about that pick?

This is, quite frankly, why I am significantly less enamored with the draft as a whole than most people.  Give me the tried-and-true and I'll pay a premium for it.


bob



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Bob,

It's not that much of a crap shoot that if a projected #1 falls to #6, we should think anything other than he's damaged goods. Jordan also didn't fall that far in the draft due to injuries, it was other factors.

Personally, I'm still not sold that Sully will last all that long given back and persistent weight issues.  I could see his conditioning habits alone being problematic enough that by the time we build a contender in a few years he's incapable of making the contributions he does now.

Paying a premium and not building with younger players only got us one championship.  I'm glad we got it, but I want to do it the right way this time and build something that lasts longer term.  The draft simply has to play a role in that process IMHO.

Regards

NYCelt,

Only one ring yes but a damn close shot at two others.

If we don't swing a trade and the pick is ours to use. Roll the dice and pick him. We still have plenty of first round picks moving forward and if he does pan out to be "close" to what he can be (even if he needs a year to heal fully) we could be pretty darn good.

There are so many things that can/will happen between now and then who the heck knows. Sure DA is exploring every nook and cranny, I can only imagine what he wants to happen and what will happen.

Perhaps he'll check here for advise..................then his head will really explode !!

beat

Is your not so little guy playing summer ball? (baseball)

NYCelt wrote:Bob,

It's not that much of a crap shoot that if a projected #1 falls to #6, we should think anything other than he's damaged goods.  Jordan also didn't fall that far in the draft due to injuries, it was other factors.

Personally, I'm still not sold that Sully will last all that long given back and persistent weight issues.  I could see his conditioning habits alone being problematic enough that by the time we build a contender in a few years he's incapable of making the contributions he does now.

Paying a premium and not building with younger players only got us one championship.  I'm glad we got it, but I want to do it the right way this time and build something that lasts longer term.  The draft simply has to play a role in that process IMHO.

Regards

NYCelt,

I don't understand your comment "It's not that much of a crap shoot that if a projected #1 falls to #6, we should think anything other than he's damaged goods."  Sully dropping from #8 (mid-lottery) to #21 (bottom half of the 1st round) is evidence of damaged goods.  Dropping from the top 3 to 6 is evidence of concerns or maybe team needs for uber-athletic wings and point guards or more likely a combination of both.  If Embiid was truly 'damaged goods' wouldn't he drop down to at least the lower half of the lottery?  If falling to 6th isn't much of a crap shoot, then what's the problem with taking him?


The draft IS playing a role in our pursuit of #18.  We have Sully, Kelly and Bradley (and Pressey, although he was undrafted).  We have only one player over 30, Wallace.  Lack of youth and players being developed are not some of our current problems.  One year of additional experience to 2 rookies (Kelly and Phil) and a sophomore (Sully) is not going to produce the kind of quantum level leap up we need.  Will we only win 25 games next year?  Not unless there's a devastating injury, but are we ready to win 38 games (which is how many #8 Atlanta had)?  Possibly, but not necessarily if we're just going with more of the same roster (and let's remember that Atlanta was a significantly better team before Horford went down.  They would have been 3rd or 4th otherwise).  Charlotte had 43 wins, good enough for #7 in the wretched EC (if Horford hadn't gone down Charlotte would have been in the 8th slot, not the 7th.  So that's what we would need to make the playoffs, even in the EC).  Will we pick up 18-19 wins next year with this roster and #6 and #17 rookies?  I say no, we will not.  And then Rondo comes up for contract renewal.  Is that where we want to be, a non-playoff team with Rondo unsatisfied and able to walk?


And I'd like to win #18 and then worry about #19.  Dynasties are wonderful things but they tend to be self-perpetuating because nothing succeeds like success.  Be primed to compete for a ring and talent flocks to you (Scott Wedman and Bill Walton; Eddie House and James Posey; Shane Battier).  Win one and talent takes pay cuts to hold onto your ankles and get dragged along (Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen).

Go Big or Go Home!  I say...



bob


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The draft is a crap shoot. That is the one thing we can say with certainty in this whole situation.

Worcester, would you draft Embiid at no. 6 if he's already had surgery instead of taking the recovery approach you recommend?

As for Walton and Oden, they actually weren't healthy when they were drafted. Walton already had sore knees, which turned out to be a side effect of his foot issues, which were congenital. I recently read The Breaks of the Game by David Halberstam, and it details how Walton's extremely high arches were at the root of his foot and knee issues and were already evident when he came out of college.

As for Oden, he supposedly had a "pristine" MRIs on his knees prior to the draft, but his knee started hurting while on vacation, swelled when he started working out, and he had microfracture surgery on the knee and missed his entire rookie year. Based on how it played out, the issue was there when he was drafted, but Portland missed it.

Given that so many big guys have had this issue and that it has been debilitating for many of them, I said no, but I was surprised when Worcester said yes, so I could be convinced to reconsider.

I really like what I've seen of Embiid as a player. He's long, athletic, seems to have good instincts, and if he can stay healthy, I think he can be an very good player and exactly what the Celtics need at center. The back issue didn't bother me that much, but man, this foot issue is not good.

Excerpt from http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/6/20/5827218/joel-embiid-injury-reactions-nba-draft-2014


As bad as things might look right now, ESPN's Dr. Mark Adickes -- a former team physician for the Rockets who worked with Yao -- says Embiid's situation "is troubling, but it isn't a career death sentence for the Kansas center."

In the article, Adickes explains several differences between the circumstances of Yao and Embiid, including height and games played. Because the former was 7'6 and had to spend significant time playing for the Chinese national team, he stood a greater risk of breaking down.

There's also the little fact that Yao "had extremely high arches in his feet, which, when placed under stress, compressed his navicular bone like a nutcracker." While Adickes has never seen X-rays of Embiid's feet for comparison, "it is highly unlikely that he has similar anatomy as Yao."



bob



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Agree with you 100% Bob about not being overly enamored of the draft.  A great judge of talent like Red Auerbach missed on about half of his first picks (many of them in the top 8 slots of the draft), often passing up future all-stars in the process.  It's not even reliable enough to be called a crap shoot.  Give me the tried and true.

Sam

The gambler in me says "yes." The pragmatist in me says "no."

I voted no, and the reason is because it's a high-risk situation whereas there are other players that will be available at #6 that can help the Celtics.

Embiid doesn't look like he can take years and years of 82 game seasons plus playoffs if he's having durability problems at this point in his career. What good is top of the line talent if we might never get to see it?



KJ

I have no idea, hope we can get him checked out by our medical team, if he has good arches.....oh I don't know?

a year goes by fast, if we get him, hes got to take the year off, its up to our medical staff. if his back is better than Sullys and his feet and arches are better than Walton and Yao Ming, maybe?

sam wrote:Hey Kyle,

Where are you living now?  Approximately...not looking for a street address.

Don't I recall when you were a freshman in college back in the BDC days?  I was always impressed by your logic, both then and now.  Glad you've joined us.

Sam

Hi Sam,

I'm living up in Andover currently, but I'm working down in Needham. It's a lovely commute. Celtics forums have been a long time. I'm thinking it was at the end of freshman year, either spring or summer of 2006, so that's pre-KG era, 8 years. I'm glad to be here with you and everyone else. It's certainly an interesting time to be a Cs fan.

Thanks,
Kyle

I don't really see the 6th pick getting us a center in this draft but I would not be unhappy if Embiid fell and was our pick. Ainge would have a much better idea of his medicals than I would. If he's ok with the pick, I would be. Ainge taking Embiid would be our best chance of a franchise center. Vonleh could be the pick, but I doubt he ends up being a franchise center. If he's a franchise player, it's from the PF position. If we use the 17th to trade for Asik, that's a temporary solution. Same would be a sign and trade or signing of Gortat. Nurkic, Capela, etc, all are long shots at 17 or later

The speculation is over!

Celtics draft Embiid:

http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/blakelys-nba-mock-draft-100-cs-take-chance-embiid?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo