Should the Celtics bring Fournier back? That depends

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/celtics-offseason-should-cs-re-sign-evan-fournier-free-agency




Should the Celtics bring Fournier back? That depends



JUN 15, 2021

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER



How much green are the Boston Celtics willing to spend to keep Evan Fournier in green this summer?

The Celtics are set to vault back into the luxury tax this season and must decide just how much they are willing to splurge to retain Fournier, the team’s big-splash addition at the 2021 NBA trade deadline.

Fournier filled Boston’s glaring need for size and shooting but results were mixed after his arrival. A battle with COVID hindered his late-season reps and he struggled defensively against the Brooklyn Nets in the postseason. But there were glimpses of his potential fit and, combined with his Orlando Magic resume, he's a desirable player to retain.

Boston’s ability to bring back Fournier, who will be an unrestricted free agent, hinges heavy on his market and the interest he generates from the small handful of teams with money to spend. But a desire to bring Fournier back must be balanced with Boston’s bloating payroll as Jayson Tatum’s extension kicks in.


“What does the market dictate, right? I don’t care if a guy is averaging 16 points and shooting 44 percent from 3, if there’s not a market for that player then [that player is] limited as far as your options,” ESPN front office insider Bobby Marks said last week on the Celtics Talk podcast.

"When you look at the teams outside of that $9.5 million (non-taxpayer) midlevel exception, you are looking at teams like New York, Miami, Charlotte, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, perhaps Toronto, and we’ll see what happens in Dallas but they’ve got their own Evan Fournier in Tim Hardaway there.

"Is there a team -- one of those five or six -- that (is) willing to pay him $14 to $16 million? I’m not sure."

The 28-year-old Fournier is an ideal fit for a contender looking to add an offensive weapon. He’s coming off a five-year, $85 million extension that paid him $17.5 million last season. But with a thin free-agent crop there should be suitors interested in his offensive skillset.

Fournier had a solid season as a focal point in Orlando but his usage rate plummeted from 26.2 (91st percentile among wings, per Cleaning the Glass) to 16.5 (49th percentile) with the Celtics. A player who thrived as both a scorer and playmaker in Orlando was a bit more bottled up in Boston, in part due to the COVID issues he battled.

For the season as a whole, Fournier averaged 17.1 points and 3.4 assists while shooting 41.3 percent beyond the 3-point arc. In Boston that 3-point percentage spiked to 46.3 percent in 16 appearances (this despite a particularly rough debut) and he’s an intriguing weapon to put around players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.


Not much to go on

Minutes per game Fournier played with Tatum and Brown in Boston = 4.6

Boston’s conundrum is that it didn’t get much of a look at the trio together. Fournier played a mere 74 minutes with Tatum and Brown due to injuries and illnesses and that trio had a minus-14.7 net rating in that tiny sample.

"It’s hard to gauge Evan Fournier’s year,” said Marks. "COVID, gets traded, plays pretty decently down the back end, starts to find his legs in there. But, on the other end, if you're the Celtics, you lose Evan Fournier, you don’t replace him. You have the $5.9 million [taxpayer] midlevel exception so how much do you value him to retain and pay the luxury tax, right? You’re right at that number (with current guaranteed contracts).

"So that’s the decision that the front office is going to have to make. And how much trust do you have in your younger guards -- [Aaron] Nesmith, [Romeo] Langford, guys like that that can kind of step in?”

The other question for Boston is just how far out can you go with a Fournier deal. There’s a line of thinking that suggests the Celtics shouldn’t go beyond two years and line up the end of Fournier’s next deal with when Kemba Walker is scheduled to come off the books, positioning the Celtics with maximum flexibility when looking to add a third star alongside the Jays.

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But keeping both Walker and Fournier could mean a particularly menacing tax bill this season. Celtics ownership has been willing to pay to field surefire title contenders but Boston didn’t play anywhere near that level last season.

Could new president of basketball operations Brad Stevens sell ownership on loading up at the start the year with the promise of making tougher cost-slashing choices during the season if the team still doesn’t live up to expectations?

In that scenario, Boston could pay a bit more to retain Fournier the next two seasons and stiff-arm potential suitors while still allowing Fournier to get back into free agency at age 30.

If Fournier is eager for longer-term security that could complicate matters. But his biggest total payday seemingly would come from betting on himself in the short term and hoping for a lucrative long-term pact in the summer of 2023. The Celtics would simply have to hope a team like New York, with a penchant for big-money, short-term deals, doesn't swoop in with a similar offer.

The Celtics didn’t pay a prohibitive cost to acquire Fournier but it’s less than ideal to let him walk away without return compensation (even if it’s just generating another trade exception by trading him to a team with cap space). Boston needed to send two second-round picks to Charlotte to generate the Gordon Hayward trade exception, then utilized two more second-rounders to nab Fournier out of Orlando.

More importantly, the Celtics elected to use the largest trade exception in league history on Fournier and needed to maximize that return after watching Hayward depart. (Boston still has roughly $11 million to spend this summer with the rest of the TPE, which could fetch another veteran player).

It all comes down to the market. If it’s cool on Fournier early while teams hunt the few big fish, then maybe Boston can get him back on ideal terms. It gets a lot more complicated if the market heats up.


Bob
MY NOTE:  I am NOT a fan of his defense, although I'm willing to cut him some slack since he came in mid-year and had no camp or any time to ramp up with Brad's system and his teammates.  His offense, though, has value.  He is not, in my opinion, a starter on a Championship contending team and therefore that should limit his value to any GM other than one who is managing a team near the bottom and the injection of any veteran talent into the starting lineup would be a plus.  That's not us.

I like Fournier's grit.  He's got some sand, I'll give him that, but should he get minutes that would better go to Nesmith?  I know it can't be either/or, we need depth at SG even if Nesmith blossoms, but he will gobble up a lot of minutes or why sign him?  Brad needs to figure out where Nesmith is going to fall on the depth chart next year and then bring in players that will either play in front of him (Fournier?) or will be happy playing behind him (e.g. Frank Ntilikina, JJ Redick, the return of Javonte Green?).


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If Jaylen Brown is not 100% for training camp, I'd like to have Fournier on board to start the season.  Also, there is no way to replace his skillset in free agency because we are over the cap.  He is worth way more than the taxpayer's MLE.

Sign him for 3 years/$45M.  That gives us insurance for the early part of the season.  That contract then can be traded mid season and beyond.  We need a contract like that to be in the conversation to get a top player at the deadline next season.

If the Celtics let him walk and try to stay under the luxury tax limit, that means that the owners/management don't think we are contenders.  If they sign him and end up being taxpayers, that will let us fans know that the owners/management believe in the team.

Lastly, I don't believe anything Fournier did for us this last season can be a barometer as to what he can bring to us next season.  Remember, he came in and had the false positive, then sat a while, then came back and played a bit and then he did get covid.  Like cowens hinted at, no Brown in the lineup during the playoffs = no context for a real judgement call for his fit on this team.

I say give him a normal off season to get right, have a normal preseason and then lets see.

Everybody complains about the lack of scoring from the bench. Then peeps want to unload a 40 % 3 point shooging vet with playoff experience . He's been an average defender throughout his career, and played through serious covid compications, e.g . blurred vision and concussion - like symptoms Nesmith and Romeo both have upsides, but neither can start the offense, and Romeo isn't, at this point , a shooter. The idea that there isn't room for all three on the roster is ,frankly, ludicrous, given the alternatives.