Horford Trade Enhances Boston’s Flexibility on Multiple Fronts

https://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/offseason-062121-horford-trade-enhances-bostons-flexibility-multiple-fronts







Horford Trade Enhances Boston’s Flexibility on Multiple Fronts



By Taylor Snow |  @taylorcsnow
Celtics.com
June 21, 2021



One of Brad Stevens’ primary goals in his new role as Celtics president of basketball operations is to construct a roster that can bring out the best in Boston’s star wing tandem of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. He believes that he took one step forward in his quest to achieve such an objective Friday morning after re-acquiring Al Horford in a trade with Oklahoma City.

It was a difficult first move for Stevens to make, as he traded a person whom he has grown to love in Kemba Walker along with the 16th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and a 2025 second-round pick in exchange for Horford, 21-year-old center Moses Brown and a 2023 second-round pick from the Thunder. But it was also a move that he felt was necessary, as it should provide the Celtics with significant financial flexibility moving forward to help build around the Jays, as well as an opportunity to help them continue to develop while playing alongside a versatile veteran like Horford.

“I think his ability to pass, his ability to play a couple of positions, but certainly stretch the floor against bigs, and his ability to guard guys that are all very good. But his impact on others and his ability to lift others is one of his great strengths,” Stevens said of Horford Monday morning as he discussed the trade with the media. “To have the ability to get that in return and gain financial flexibility moving forward - the cost was a person that you really, really like and one first-round pick.”

Another advantage of adding Horford, as Stevens noted, is that he already has “corporate knowledge” regarding this Celtics team, having played with them from 2016-2019, and he also “has a good feel for not only playing with our guys, but also has made them better.”

Such was the case for Brown and Tatum, as they both entered the league under Horford’s wing just one year apart. Brown’s first three seasons coincided with Horford’s entire tenure with the C’s, while Tatum’s first two campaigns overlapped with Horford’s last two years in Boston.

Having the opportunity to enter the league and play alongside a versatile offensive player and defensive anchor like Horford made life easier for both of those rising stars, and it should continue to do so moving forward.

However, Horford’s presence should not only simplify the lives of Brown and Tatum; his ability to space the floor, make plays for others, and provide veteran leadership should benefit the entire roster. His playmaking ability can take pressure off Boston’s ball handlers, and his versatility could allow him to play alongside other bigs such as Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams.

“I do think, for instance, Tristan’s ability to switch and Tristan’s ability to rebound allows him to play with a spacer like Al, who also has a lot of flexibility,” said Stevens. “Rob’s ability to play in the dunker and hitting Al in the seams and playing with the lob game gives you flexibility.”

“Flexibility” was the key factor in this trade, and on multiple levels, as Stevens explained. There will be greater flexibility in the immediate future, as the Celtics now have a versatile veteran in Horford who can play many roles in different types of rotations while also making his teammates better. And there will also be greater flexibility looking toward the more distant future, as the team will have more financial freedom to build a contender around its star wings.


Bob
MY NOTE:  RWill and Thompson on the floor together clogged up the paint.  Horford and either one of those players opens it.  One of the things Al didn't like when he was here was his playing center.  He preferred to play 4, since it was less physically punishing for him.  Well, with TT and RW he can play outside more on offense and guard the opposing team's 4 more often without having that create a mismatch for his team.

Here we have Taylor Snow saying that Brad "loves" Kemba.  Brad loves everybody, publicly.  What he says to them in practice and in the film sessions might be very different.  We've probably all had bosses who were very nice and professional in public but would pull us into their offices and read us the Riot Act behind closed doors when we were f-ing up, and they didn't want to embarrass us.  Didn't mean they hated us and wanted to fire us, it just meant they wanted us to stop f-ing up.  It doesn't really matter, bigger picture, but I'm just taking that with a grain of salt.  Kemba's gone.  I wish him well.  His knees are not his fault.  He tried, and played with as much Pride as his body would allow him to do, and I don't really care whether this was Danny's deal or Brad's deal, or whether Brad wept tears the size of buckets when he made the trade or was glad to be rid of the tension.  

Kemba for Horford.  Both players are on the downside and we save a ton of money.

The #16 for Brown.  Unless Moses turns out to be complete fools gold this is a really good pick up for that price.  To put it into some perspective, Moses' $1.7M contract for next year is how much the #27 pick would make, and that's without the 20% additional $ the Celtics usually sign their rookies to.  If you assume the 20% kicker then Moses is really getting paid less than the equivalent of a #30 pick ($1.7M/1.2 = $1.416M without the 20% kicker).  The rookie scale contract for the #16 pick is $2.678M without the kicker and the #30 pick is $1.66M without the kicker.  So we're getting Moses for a fraction of what the #16 pick would have cost us, slight more than the #30 pick and less than the #30 pick if you include the kicker.  Is Moses Brown worth a #30 pick?  


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This team arrived at this point because Danny Ainge made a big mistake when he signed Kemba Walker 2 years ago.  He also made a great decision not to over pay Al Horford 2 years ago.  

Al could not play the 4 in Philly because this is 2021.  The spin that Brad is putting on this should be recognized for what it is..  BS

Al cannot play the 4 on this team or any team.  He cannot possibly be productive at 4 with any of our centers.  He is not a 4 and he cannot defend 4's.  Al can stretch the floor some with his outside shooting.  He can pass and he can rebound when he is in position but he simply cannot defend at the 4 spot.

The trade had to be made to move Kemba.  AH is clearly a short timer.  We are way overloaded at 5 now and everybody out there knows that TT is not a good fit.

The Celtics did what they had to do and the two best things derived from the trade was #1 Cap relief and #2 Moses Brown.

I see where it can make sense and I can also see where it has a possibility of a gamble that didn’t pay off.

It is my contention that The C’s probably could have done this deal without giving up #16. Again, I don’t think that there was a big market for Al out there.

If this years #16 ends up turning out to be anther Donovan Mitchell or Giannis then we may have saved some money but look what we missed out on.

I realize the chances of that happening are very slim just as slim as Moses becoming the next Moses Malone.  I am only pointing this out for those who think that “oh well, Moses is like a #16 pick or better with some NBA experience”.
Maybe and Maybe not.

Lets just hope that Wack Wyc doesn’t make deals predicated on how many millions he may save at the risk of sacrificing the talent level on this team.
And…

Lets just hope Moses parts the NBA waters becomes a star for us and at the same time puts a part in John Collins’ head next season. (Just had to add that little kicker. Makes me feel better. Carry on)

The only problem I have with Brown is I don't know why OKC would give him up. They're supposed to be in complete rebuild. Brown is young, a super bargain, and clearly has the potential to get minutes in this league. His only downside is his perimeter game, offense and defense. But he's still young and can learn. Or is he terminally dumb? I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of putting a trade like this together but I really have to wonder if giving up Brown was the only way to make it work for OKC. Was that a nonnegotiable requirement by us?

atcross wrote:The only problem I have with Brown is I don't know why OKC would give him up. They're supposed to be in complete rebuild. Brown is young, a super bargain, and clearly has the potential to get minutes in this league. His only downside is his perimeter game, offense and defense. But he's still young and can learn. Or is he terminally dumb? I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of putting a trade like this together but I really have to wonder if giving up Brown was the only way to make it work for OKC. Was that a nonnegotiable requirement by us?

Cross,

Good question.

They sat Horford last year for the express purpose of developing the super-cheap player they just traded away.  WTF?

Which brings the next question:  Giving up Horford's contract makes sense, especially in a complete rebuild, but why take on Kemba's bigger contract?  Kemba has to be the #1 worst contract in the league right now.  Why did they voluntarily go from the frying pan into the fire?  I'm thinking Kemba's not long in OKC, they're going to flip him plus some of the TONS of draft picks they've accumulated for a young quality player to go alongside SGA longterm. Nothing else makes sense to me. They have the picks to do that, we don't, so we couldn't have pulled that off by ourselves too.


Bob
MY NOTE:  FYI, in the games Moses played bigger minutes in last year, either as a starter as a solid rotation player, OKC's record was 6-29.  That might mean nothing, OKC was trying to lose, but still...


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We should not overthink this.

First there were not a lot of teams lining up to take on a $73 million contract for a player who may or not be able to play on a regular basis.  When a team makes a mistake on a player and they have to move him it is a give and take situation.  I pretty much knew a first rounder would probably be needed to move Kemba.  This deal provides some CAP relief including the difference in paying a first rounder vs a guy that is locked in for 3 years at short money.  

The value of the 16th pick will not be fully appreciated until a player is selected at 16 and he plays and everyone will be making a judgment about that player.

OKC may not have been as high on Moses Brown.  Who knows.  maybe they want a 5 that can stretch.   They are in a full blown tank mode and have something like 18 first rounders in the bank.

Until the 16 pick is done and until Moses Brown plays for the Celtics we can really only speculate about that part of the trade.  

I think Boston won this trade overall but at the very least it was pretty even.

The 16 pick last year was Isaiah Stewart, a 6'9" PF/C who ended up at Detroit after a couple trades. Like Brown, he started some games for a bad team and had the same MPG. They had similar numbers except for rebounding, where Brown exceled.


Year        Team   GP GS MPG FG% 3P%  FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
2020–21 Detroit  68 14 21.4 .553 .333  .696  6.7  .9    .6    1.3  7.9

2020–21 Ok City 43 32 21.4 .545   —    .619  8.9 .2     .7    1.1  8.6

atcross wrote:The 16 pick last year was Isaiah Stewart, a 6'9" PF/C who ended up at Detroit after a couple trades. Like Brown, he started some games for a bad team and had the same MPG. They had similar numbers except for rebounding, where Brown exceled.


Year        Team GP GS MPG FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
2020–21 Detroit 68 14 21.4 .553 .333 .696 6.7 .9 .6 1.3 7.9

2020–21 Ok City 43 32 21.4 .545 — .619 8.9 .2 .7 1.1 8.6

Cross,

Excellent observations. Except for the # of starts. Brown had more than double than Stewart. That means Brown went up against better talent for at least the first 5 of his minutes. Either way, it's good for us. At the minimum we perhaps got a player that was comparable to the #16 pick for almost 2/3 the salary.

Furthermore, I just looked this up, only $500K of Brown's salary is guaranteed next year. He's already cheaper than cheap, but if he's fools gold it will only cost us $500K to cut him, or use his full $1.7M in a trade package, or trade him as a $500K expiring contract. His $1.846M salary in 2022-2023 is fully NON-guaranteed. His $2M salary in 2023-2024 is a club option, so they could keep him next year and cut him with no $ loss the year after. I don't think they'll do either one of those, but they could.


Bob


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Tristan and AH are not going to hang around for more than 1 year and 2 respectively and either or both could be traded. There is no upside for them just downside. Kornet is a joke. Tacko is a carnival character. The chance that there is room on the roster for Brown looks favorable to me.

Lots of good comments in this thread.  My thoughts (and opinions) in no particular order:

Walker trade:

The trade had two parts, (1) bad contract for bad contract and (2) 1st rounder for Moses Brown.  We saved a little money and OKC got ANOTHER first round pick.  

Horford, 4 or 5?:

He can be the high post big (4) on offense and can switch over to 5 on defense.  Hybrid.

Trading away #16:

Drafting at that position is a crap shoot.  It is better to have a guy that already has proven that can play in the NBA.  Not holding onto #16 in the hopes of a statistic abnormality is the chance they took.

#1 worst contract in the league?:

Kristaps Porzingis.

Was signing Walker a mistake?:

At the time, No.  Our offense was humming along just fine at the beginning of Walker's first season.  He was voted into the All-Star game.  Then the knee issue flared up, covid-19 happened, we had a short time between seasons so no time for him to get the most out of the stem-cell injection.  Of course everyone has an opinion on Walker's signing, but without the assistance of hind-sight, many thought at the time that it was a refreshing change from the ignorant bastard.

gyso wrote:Lots of good comments in this thread.  My thoughts (and opinions) in no particular order:

Walker trade:

The trade had two parts, (1) bad contract for bad contract and (2) 1st rounder for Moses Brown.  We saved a little money and OKC got ANOTHER first round pick.  

Horford, 4 or 5?:

He can be the high post big (4) on offense and can switch over to 5 on defense.  Hybrid.

Trading away #16:

Drafting at that position is a crap shoot.  It is better to have a guy that already has proven that can play in the NBA.  Not holding onto #16 in the hopes of a statistic abnormality is the chance they took.

#1 worst contract in the league?:

Kristaps Porzingis.

Was signing Walker a mistake?:

At the time, No.  Our offense was humming along just fine at the beginning of Walker's first season.  He was voted into the All-Star game.  Then the knee issue flared up, covid-19 happened, we had a short time between seasons so no time for him to get the most out of the stem-cell injection.  Of course everyone has an opinion on Walker's signing, but without the assistance of hind-sight, many thought at the time that it was a refreshing change from the ignorant bastard.

Man after my heart!  

Regarding Brown and why OKC traded him, he is a project.  OKC, given all the draft picks, is in a fine position to give up on a project.  They will have many more on their hands.

Currently, I see backup 5 as Brown's ceiling.