Jacked Jayson Tatum needs to finish at the rim more in 2021-22

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/jacked-jayson-tatum-needs-finish-134255841.html



Jacked Jayson Tatum needs to finish at the rim more in 2021-22


Chris Forsberg
Tue, September 7, 2021, 6:42 AM



By now you’ve probably seen the viral photos of Jayson Tatum. You know, the one where he’s casually hoisting a 100-pound dumbbell and looking like he kidnapped Semi Ojeleye’s biceps. Maybe you’re a Celtics fan just waking up after fainting at the sight of Tatum’s new swole look. Even the Celtics pounced by posting a #ThrowbackThursday comparing skinny 2019 Tatum vs. veins-popping-out-of-his-shoulders 2021 Tatum.

Here’s what we’d like to see Tatum do with his newfound mass: muscle home more buckets at the basket during the 2021-22 season. Only 30.1 percent of the Celtics’ total shots last season came at the rim (ranking 25th in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass data). Maybe even more infuriating: Boston ranked ninth in shooting percentage at the rim but too often settled for less efficient perimeter looks.

Tatum is skilled enough to create quality looks from the perimeter but his percentage of shots at the rim has decreased every year as a pro. After taking 39 percent of his shots at the rim as a rookie, he was down at 28 percent during the 2020-21 season, per Cleaning the Glass data.

It’s time for Tatum to combine his obvious length with his newfound bulk and generate more finishes at the basket. He shot a career-best 68 percent at the rim last season. It wouldn’t hurt if he could muscle home a few baskets through contact, too. Tatum made only 21.9 percent of his possible and-1 finishes last season, which ranked in the 43rd percentile among all forwards, per Cleaning the Glass.

In fact, Tatum was only fouled on 9.7 percent of his total shots attempts last year. For context, Jimmy Butler gets a whistle on 20.8 percent of his attempts (but maybe no other wing in the league get more whistles than Butler). Even if Tatum simply shimmied closer to Kawhi Leonard (fouled on 11.8 percent of shot attempts), it should put him in position to truly be one of the league’s top scorers, given how easy Tatum makes big scoring nights look.

We’re ready for some Bully Ball Tatum next year. If new coach Ime Udoka elects to lean heavy on smallball lineups, the Celtics could feature Tatum at the 4 quite often. Tatum needs to be ready to joust at both ends of the floor, particularly when matched up with bigger 4s. Being able to hold his ground and lean on skill versus big opponents would be huge, especially if he can use his size and bulk to overpower smaller wings.


The benefits of bully ball

Tatum's points and FTA per game in March - 25.3, 3.7

Tatum's points and FTA per game in April - 29.7, 7.3


If we’re being honest, the very top thing on our Tatum wish list is more playmaking. That has to be a priority for both him and All-Star teammate Jaylen Brown. But after the Tatum workout photos emerged we had to audible and wonder if Tatum can power his way through all those help defenders he’s going to see this season. Can he make all the weight room time translate to more time at the free-throw line?

During the month of April last season, Tatum averaged 29.7 points over 36.3 minutes per game. After only getting to the line 3.7 times per game in March (this while working his way back from a bout with COVID), that number spiked to 7.3 attempts per game at the charity stripe in April. A barrage of 50-point games followed.

Now, after winning a gold medal in Tokyo, Weight Room Tatum is positioned to really assert himself in this upcoming season. Especially if he uses his newfound bulk to be a LeBron-like battering ram going at the basket.



Bob
MY NOTE:  I don't think I'm going very far out on a limb here by saying that both me and Cowens would love to see more bully ball.  I've said many times the road to the All-Star game goes through the free throw line and getting to the free throw line involves creating contact (finishing better through contact is another benefit of adding muscle and weight).  In Tatum's case, because he's such an accomplished scorer, he might not need a lot of fritos to get there but then what we're talking about is the difference between being an All-Star and being All NBA First Team and leading the league in scoring.  There has never been a Boston Celtic who lead the league in scoring.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/free-throws-attempted


Last season, Tatum averaged 5.3ftas/game.  That was good for 25th in the league (Kawhi was 24th and LeBron was 26th.  Bracketed by pretty good company, even at #25).  13 of the players ahead of Tatum, players with more ftas/game, were guards (PG + SG) and not in the same position as him.  Forsberg points out that Tatum averaged 7.3ftas/game in April.  If we use that as next season's measuring stick and apply it to last year's stats he'd be 7th.  The only players with more than 7.3ftas/game last season were Embiid (10.6), Giannis (9.6), Zion (8.67), Trae Young (8.61), Butler (7.82), Beal (7.46).  Embiid, Giannis and Zion are physical freaks.  I have NO idea how Trae gets so many whistles but there he is.  Beal attacks a lot, he initiates a lot of contact which is what I am calling for Tatum to do.  If Jimmy Butler can get almost 8ftas/game then Tatum definitely should be able to.


.

As young talented guys like JT and JB  mature physically you can expect them to get more trips to the line.

Both these players are going to be better this season.  Both these guys can become 30 PPG scorers.

More free throw attempts each game by Tatum will, of course, result in more fouls for our opponents which usually leads to more time to play against their second string guys which should yield for more wins.

I have coached a bunch of high school ball, and there is clearly an advantage to having some of the other team's better players sitting on the bench while in foul trouble. I have never done a statistical analysis, but it would make sense that similar situations would exist in the NBA.