Post Season Moves and Observations

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Post by RosalieTCeltics Mon Jun 18, 2012 12:42 pm

It will be interesting to see what other teams offer him. According to reports, there are several teams looking at him. However, could this all be a ploy by his agent to get more money from DA? Danny is too smart for this kind of a play.

Judging from the way this kid acted during his recovery time and the way the Celtics allowed him to be in the locker room during certain times, it appears there is mutual respect here. I see the kid signing, I just don't know what kind of money it will cost them.
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Post by gyso Mon Jun 18, 2012 1:06 pm

dboss wrote:Looks like Jeff Green's agent, David Falk, is trying to pump up the price for his client.

Gyso...we have Bird rights?

Are we looking at something in the $8-$10 million range?

Dboss

Dboss,

I believe we do have Bird rights on Green as well as Krstic. One new thing this year is that we cannot do a sign and trade with either of these players. I read something Roy Hobbs wrote over at CelticsBlog and then went to verify it at Larry Coon's NBA Salary Cap FAQ:



88. Can a free agent be signed and immediately traded?


There is a rule that allows teams to re-sign their own free agents for trading purposes, called the sign-and-trade rule. Under this rule the player is re-signed and immediately traded to another team. This is done by adding a clause to the contract stipulating that the contract is null and void if the trade to the specific team is not completed within 48 hours. To qualify for a sign-and-trade, all of the following must be true:


  • The player must re-sign with his prior team -- a team cannot include another team's free agent in a sign-and-trade.
  • The player must finish the preceding season with that team (deals are no longer allowed that sign-and-trade players who are out of the league, such as the sign-and-trade that sent Keith Van Horn from Dallas to New Jersey as part of the Jason Kidd trade in 2008).
  • The player cannot be a restricted free agent who has signed an offer sheet with another team (see question number 43).
  • Starting in 2013-14, the team receiving the player cannot be above the "apron" ($4 million above the tax level) after the trade1.
  • Starting in 2013-14, the team cannot receive a player in a sign-and-trade if they have used the Taxpayer Mid-Level exception (see question number 25) that season.
  • The trade must be completed prior to the first game of the regular season (sign-and-trades are not allowed once the season begins).
  • The player cannot be signed using the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, the Taxpayer Mid-Level exception, or any exception that cannot be used to offer a three-year contract (see question number 25).

A sign-and-trade deal can be made with a free agent who has been renounced, as long as all the above criteria are met. Sign-and-trade contracts must be for at least three seasons (not including any option year) and no longer than four seasons. The first year of the contract must be fully guaranteed, but the remaining seasons can be non-guaranteed. The combination of a three-year minimum with a one-year guarantee ensures that the player's new team cannot acquire the player's Bird rights any sooner than if they had signed him directly (if they wanted to re-sign him in less than three years they would first have to waive him, and lose any Bird rights -- see question number 32).

The starting salary in a contract signed for a sign-and-trade may be any amount up to the player's maximum, however if the player meets the 5th Year 30% Max criteria (see question number 17) he cannot receive a salary greater than 25% of the cap. Raises are limited to 4.5%. The player may be considered to have a lower outgoing salary for trade purposes, which can complicate the trade (see question number 86).

If a sign-and-trade contract contains a signing bonus, then either team can pay it. By default the team that signs the player pays the signing bonus (as with any other contract), but since a sign-and-trade is in essence a contract with the receiving team, the teams can agree that the receiving team will pay it. Any portion that is paid by the signing team counts toward the team's annual limit for cash included in a trade (see question number 94), which in effect limits the portion of the signing bonus that can be paid by the signing team.

If a sign-and-trade contract contains a trade bonus, then the bonus is not earned upon the trade that accompanies the signing, but rather on the first subsequent trade. See question number 92 for more information on how long a team must wait before they can trade a player.




1A different team salary definition is used for determining whether a team is above or below the apron -- see question number 14 for details. Starting in 2013-14 if a team acquires a player in a sign-and-trade, the apron ($4 million above the tax line) effectively becomes a hard cap for the remainder of that season.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q88

Since Green and Krstic were not on our roster at the end of last season, they cannot be included in any sign-and-trade scenarios. See the bold red second bullet above. Talk about unintended consequences with a new cap rule.

gyso

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Post by Outside Mon Jun 18, 2012 2:27 pm

dboss wrote:Rosie...two things to consider.

Agent knows Celtics are over a barrel because we gave up Perk and need to show a return on that much discussed transaction

And the free agent market is void of top of the line talent, thus inflating the boarding war.

Dboss
Interesting theories, but I take a different view. I don't think pressure to show something for a trade from a year and half ago is much of a consideration. With Green's aortic aneurysm and Krstic signing overseas because of the lockout, fate stole more benefit from that trade than whether the Celtics sign Green now. A GM making decisions based on the winds of public opinion is in a world of trouble. Besides, whatever Ainge does about Green isn't going to change the opinion of anyone who thinks trading Perk away was a bad move.

As for Falk having leverage because the free agent market is thin, that's more than countered by other factors. The reality of the new collective bargaining agreement is that teams will be penalized heavily if they overpay players, once with a severe luxury tax for going over the cap, again by restricting the ability to acquire good players once you're over the cap, and finally by making them compete with the resulting inferior roster. All that is going to put a lot of downward pressure on salaries for mid-level players like Green, which was one of the owners' main objectives for the new CBA.

And the biggest negotiating weakness Green has is that he's coming off missing a year for an extremely serious health condition. Even if he returns perfectly healthy, getting his mojo back after missing year is tough, and there has to be concern about whether his medical condition in any way compromises his ability to play NBA basketball.

I'm sure David Falk will spin Green's talents and potential as best he can, but add everything up, and I think Green is negotiating from a position of considerable weakness.

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Post by dboss Mon Jun 18, 2012 2:50 pm

Outside

I think you may underestimate the importance of resigning Green. Losing him to am unexpected medical condition is one thing, unpredictable, but losing him to free agency is another. I have a feeling that DA has a lot of pressure on him to get him back under contact.

Of course the agent is pumping him up. ...a lot of fans including myself were not pleased with the Perk trade to begin with. That's one thing but to also not retain Green, an important building block for the future would be a disaster.

If we were talking redsox or patriots, fans would be on da like a bad habit.

Of course it is difficult to determine what his market value is but if his agent's claim that at least 12 teams are interested, we will soon find out.

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Post by Outside Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:08 pm

Dboss,

You may be right. But one thing to consider is that all the information out there touting his value is coming from his agent, David Falk. I took a cursory look around to see what articles are out there, and the ones I saw should've either had Falk's byline or had a disclaimer as a marketing piece. Falk's doing his job, but I don't believe much of what he says. Just because Falk says 12-14 teams have shown interest doesn't mean that's true or that anyone is interested in paying anything close to what he's asking.

In the end, the Celtics haven't been about paying top dollar, and they don't compete for players in that fashion. The Celtics have done a lot for Jeff Green, and they'd love it if he returned the favor and re-signed with them. If what matters to him is the maximum amount of money, then he can sign elsewhere. But if playing for an organization that stuck with him through a difficult time when they didn't have to means anything, then taking less to play for Boston shouldn't be an issue.

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Post by dboss Mon Jun 18, 2012 8:54 pm

Well of course Falk is there to build up his client. Nevertheless, the free agent market will enhance Greens options provided his medical condition checks out ok.

I do not expect any significant hometown discount .

When DA cut him loose, that was a business decision and a good one but did Green get paid last year?

Until we hear about any offers floating around we can only imagime what the market will bear.

What do you think the maximum amount will be put on the table by the Celts?

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Post by cowens/oldschool Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:39 pm

Just read in si.com that were going after Omer Asik, the Bulls back up center and that signing him would guarentee KG returning as he does not want to play 5. Love this kids game, hes a Perk clone with more length. Go Danny go!!!

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Post by dboss Tue Jun 19, 2012 6:38 am

Cow Asik would be a great addition and also it may indicate that the Celtics will not use one of their first picks on the position.

I think boston wants a wing and a pf.

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Post by gyso Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:47 am

Omer Asik is a restricted free agent, so it will take more than an offer sheet to sign him. Chicago will match any reasonable offer we make. Any trade for him will take at least one of our first picks plus a couple more assets to pry him away from the Bulls.

I can't wait to see one of his free throw air-balls!! (LOL)

FYI, over at CelticsBlog, with over 2500 votes in, the results are Stiemsma 54%, Asik 45%.

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Post by dboss Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:39 am

GYSO

Well put my vote down for Steimsma.
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Post by Sam Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:22 am

I wonder if both the Celtics and the Bulls could do sign-and-trades with Ray and Asik in order to swap them—with Chicago possibly throwing in some deadwood (if they have enough of it) to make the salaries work.

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Post by sinus007 Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:40 am

Sam,
It's a good idea. But I think DA should use s-a-t of RA for someone who's needed more than this slight upgrade from GS to OA. If possible, of course.

AK
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Post by bobheckler Tue Jun 19, 2012 11:52 am

48% ft% last year for Asik? OMG, he makes Shaq look like Rick Barry (which is pretty hard to do considering Barry's white).

You want to see the defense attack our perimeter shooters? Put Asik in and they'll leave him in a NY second, returning to him just long enough to foul him.

I guess Danny's underwhelmed with Fab Melo. I think a Melo/Steamer/Asik center corp would be pretty weak. I'm a fan of Steamer's, as you all know, but he's not starting NBA center material yet. He needs more seasoning.

bob

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Post by bobheckler Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:04 pm

There are reports that Joey Dorsey has worked out for the Celtics.

Note, in his /36mpg stats, the % of rebounds that are offensive. Furthermore, 13+ rebounds/36mpg is pretty damn good. By comparison, Perk averaged 14+ rebounds/36mpg his first year (he only played 10 games that year) and has never averaged 13+/36mpg since.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dorsejo01.html

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Joey-Dorsey-456/

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Post by gyso Tue Jun 19, 2012 12:07 pm

dboss wrote:GYSO

Well put my vote down for Steimsma.

With almost 2800 votes in, the results are still Stiemsma 54%, Asik 45%. That is with their potential salaries included in the poll:

Greg Stiemsma at 1-2 million a year, Omer Asik at 4-5 million a year

Like everything regarding NBA player transactions, their salary has to be taken into consideration.

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Post by dboss Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:26 am

Espn chad ford mock draft has Celts going after Andrew Nicholson and Moe Harkless.

I have no problem with either one.

Also profile on Royce White. He is really a gifted athletes but he can't shoot a lick.

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Post by dboss Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:30 am

Harkless has 7 foot wingspan and averaged 8.6 rebounds per game. Nice option at SF

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Post by dboss Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:34 am

Nicholson is a physics major. Only been playing since junior year of H.S.

Lots of upside. Give me a smart kids with physical tools and let KG tutor him

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Post by bobheckler Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:08 pm

I saw a report today that said that Danny is interested in Jared Sullinger and might trade up for him.

What the hell, as long as we're chasing every draft phantom, here's Sullinger's scouting report from draftexpress. Mike Schmidt has a scouting video on that page. On it he says that Sullinger's best case/worst case is Luis Scola/Glen Davis. If we're going to trade up for a lottery pick, I'd be thrilled with Scola, not so thrilled with Davis.

I saw Sullinger play 1 game. He was like a man among boys. Extremely physical, but completely earthbound. He'll have trouble, at 6'9", in the low post against NBA players but he'll muscle his way in and he'll muscle them off the post too. I can't see us being considered "soft" with him. At 6'9" 268#, the kid's built like a brick shithouse. He has a bulging disk in his back, though. That is a serious medical condition that will only get worse with the longer NBA season, fewer rest days between games and getting pounded on by bigger, heavier, stronger NBA players.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jared-Sullinger-5029/


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Post by dboss Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:37 pm

Bob

I saw that. The back issue would make him a question mark.
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Post by Outside Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:10 pm

bobheckler wrote:I saw a report today that said that Danny is interested in Jared Sullinger and might trade up for him.

What the hell, as long as we're chasing every draft phantom, here's Sullinger's scouting report from draftexpress. Mike Schmidt has a scouting video on that page. On it he says that Sullinger's best case/worst case is Luis Scola/Glen Davis. If we're going to trade up for a lottery pick, I'd be thrilled with Scola, not so thrilled with Davis.

I saw Sullinger play 1 game. He was like a man among boys. Extremely physical, but completely earthbound. He'll have trouble, at 6'9", in the low post against NBA players but he'll muscle his way in and he'll muscle them off the post too. I can't see us being considered "soft" with him. At 6'9" 268#, the kid's built like a brick shithouse. He has a bulging disk in his back, though. That is a serious medical condition that will only get worse with the longer NBA season, fewer rest days between games and getting pounded on by bigger, heavier, stronger NBA players.
This is extremely surprising to me. Even before the report of his back problem, I wasn't too keen on the guy. As Bob points out, he's big and strong and sometimes looked like a man among boys in college, but there aren't boys at the power forward position in the NBA. It's turned into an athletic, skilled position, and I don't think Sullinger has the athleticism to keep up. He has a good wingspan (7-1 1/4), be he's relatively short (6-7 3/4 without shoes), not a great leaper, and has the seventh worst agility score and second worst sprint score. Kevin Love isn't the most physically gifted player either, but I don't see Sullinger as that type of guy. I don't know.
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Post by RosalieTCeltics Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:25 pm

I am no expert or even follower of college ball the way you guys are. I used to be, but not now. I find all of the posts most interesting as there seem to be many kids out there with talent, waiting for a shot at the big time. What I feel is most interesting is everyday there is a new "report" about Danny being interest in a player. Just because they work out for him doesn't mean a thing.
Some of the guys reporting this stuff want to be the one who hits the nail on the head~
Keep all these posts coming, I love reading them. Who will pick the two draft choices? You guys are great!
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Post by beat Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:34 pm

Rosalie

As you well know sometimes people have a poker face.

Some one here posted the Flip Saunders story about KG and the day he was drafted, Saunders was not keen on taking a HS kid on their first pick (6th) then he saw him (or film of him) and absolutely went into panic mode as he never thought he would last till their pick even mentioned players they were interested into the media after (not KG) to try to take the dogs off the scent. Worked I guess cause KG was still there at 6.

After the first couple of no-brainers and even then it is a just a roll of the dice. Just do not know what really is in these kids heads or perhaps a bit more important, hearts.

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Post by beat Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:41 pm

Another piece on Fab Melo

http://www.indystar.com/usatoday/article/55692834

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Post by bobheckler Wed Jun 20, 2012 1:44 pm

Outside wrote:
bobheckler wrote:I saw a report today that said that Danny is interested in Jared Sullinger and might trade up for him.

What the hell, as long as we're chasing every draft phantom, here's Sullinger's scouting report from draftexpress. Mike Schmidt has a scouting video on that page. On it he says that Sullinger's best case/worst case is Luis Scola/Glen Davis. If we're going to trade up for a lottery pick, I'd be thrilled with Scola, not so thrilled with Davis.

I saw Sullinger play 1 game. He was like a man among boys. Extremely physical, but completely earthbound. He'll have trouble, at 6'9", in the low post against NBA players but he'll muscle his way in and he'll muscle them off the post too. I can't see us being considered "soft" with him. At 6'9" 268#, the kid's built like a brick shithouse. He has a bulging disk in his back, though. That is a serious medical condition that will only get worse with the longer NBA season, fewer rest days between games and getting pounded on by bigger, heavier, stronger NBA players.
This is extremely surprising to me. Even before the report of his back problem, I wasn't too keen on the guy. As Bob points out, he's big and strong and sometimes looked like a man among boys in college, but there aren't boys at the power forward position in the NBA. It's turned into an athletic, skilled position, and I don't think Sullinger has the athleticism to keep up. He has a good wingspan (7-1 1/4), be he's relatively short (6-7 3/4 without shoes), not a great leaper, and has the seventh worst agility score and second worst sprint score. Kevin Love isn't the most physically gifted player either, but I don't see Sullinger as that type of guy. I don't know.


outside,

Welcome to the New World Order, per Dictator Stern. The NBA hasn't quote players' heights in barefeet since Stern took over in the mid-80's and it all became about marketing. With today's thick soled, air-cushioned sneakers, that adds at least 1 1/2" onto every player's height. Then, round up to the next (not nearest) inch. Have you not noticed that nobody is 6' anything and a half anymore?

In the interest of apples-to-apples-comparisons, Sullinger is 6'9" for the same reason Nicholson is 6'9" and Royce White is 6'8" and Brandon Bass is 6'8" and Rajon Rondo is 6'1" and Kobe Bryant is 6'6" and LBJ is 6'8" and Kevin Durant is 6'9".

That's their height in sneakers.

Compare that to Wilt, who was 7'1" in barefeet; or Jerry West, who was a 6'5" SG, in barefeet; or Oscar Robertson, who was a 6'4" point guard, in barefeet. Add, call it two inches, onto each of their heights.

bob


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