Areas of Improvement: Courtney Lee taking advantage of the fact he is not Ray Allen

http://www.celticstown.com/2012/09/09/areas-of-improvement-courtney-lee-taking-advantage-of-the-fact-he-is-not-ray-allen/


It remains to be seen what Courtney Lee will bring to the Celtics, as he has yet to play a game for the green and white. What should be noted is he brings three point shooting and is an active defender to what I believe should be the Celtics starting unit. He’s scrappy and has been known to put up points in bunches with his time for Orlando, New Jersey, and Houston. For more information on what Lee’s current game is, check out the post by Jordon which summarizes it quite nicely.

What he needs to bring to the Celtics is some tenacity from the two-guard position. The Celtics are used to running screens and many plays for the shooting guard. Many of those extra plays will most likely go to Rajon Rondo, for him to run the offense as he best sees fit. Long story short—Courtney Lee will have to find his offense through passes out of the post and transition.

Fortunately, transition is where Lee excels; now hitting the prime of his career he will be able to run the floor with either the first or second unit. He shot 49% for three from the corners, a skill which will be tested catching behind-the-back passes from Rondo on the break. What Lee needs to bring is a sense of scrappiness reminiscent of Posey on the 2008 championship team. If he can get under other players’ skin, get the team fired up, and play some tough defense it would be huge for the aging Celtics stars. Courtney Lee has averaged a steal per game for his career, and if the Western Kentucky product can continue to be pesky for the Celtics defense it will provide something Ray Allen couldn’t, some help on the other side of the court.

Filling Ray Allen’s shoes will be difficult, but for the Celtics to succeed, I believe they will utilize Lee in ways they simply could not with Ray. Take advantage of Lee’s younger body and the fact that he can dunk over people six inches taller than him. Lee and Allen both can shoot the ball from behind the arc, but more important for the Celtics are what they do differently. Making slight adjustments on both sides of the floor will help the Celtics in the transition of shooting guards.

The Celtics pushing it more on offense off of the rebound will help Lee feel more comfortable getting the shots he is used to. He also likes taking risks on the defensive end, so when he gambles, the Celtics will have to organize a better cover than Pete Rose. The Celtics using Lee’s youth and athleticism will be vital to both sides feeling comfortable moving on from the Ray Allen era.

bob
My Note: A lot of this is stuff that has been rehashed and rehashed and rehashed, but one piece of news I picked up from this is the claim that Lee shot 49% from 3 in the corners. I'm not a big fan of guards being along the baseline, since that means they are effectively out of position to get back on defense, but if you are going to give up something of value (like good transition defense) you have to gain something of greater value in return and 49% from 3 is an eFG (Effective Field Goal %) of almost 75% and that is valuable. I'm also looking forward to seeing him run. Ray Allen had a great motor in the halfcourt but didn't run fullcourt as much. That was one of our problems, we didn't have players who could run with Rondo. Between Lee, who should be starting the season, and Bradley, after he comes back will definitely change our offensive profile. Where Lee won't be able to replace Ray is on pindowns. Ray was the master of pindowns and that's not Lee's game, he's a face-up shooter. The part about the Celtics taking advantage of the fact that Lee can dunk over people is a load of sportswriter crap. If that's how he's being used, that's bad execution. He cannot help but be a big upgrade on defense, though. Ray played better defense after coming to the Celtics than he ever did earlier in his career but the last 2 years has seen him start to decline in that area. My prediction is that Lee will be ferocious on defense and just take his offense out of the flow. He's not a creator, himself. If Bradley comes back to where he was last season, the replacement on the 2nd unit with the tandem of Lee and Terry is a big improvement over the unit that had Dooling and Allen in the backcourt. Dooling really couldn't run the offense, which meant Ray did and that meant that Ray wasn't doing what Ray should have been doing and that was coming off of pindowns or hanging out at the 3pt line waiting for pass.



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Bob

As for all the newbees, (counting Green and Wilcox for this) who has the biggest chip on his shoulder? That is which player has the most to prove and will have that winner take all attitude.

I sort of think it's Lee. (or at least should be Lee)

RA had a very defined role on those C's teams and I just gotta believe that Lee will fill that nicely and expand upon it. Would not surprise me that when Bradley does come back, Lee still remains the starter. Regardless there will be plenty of minutes for both.

You mentioned shooting treys form the corners and then getting back on D. Well if we contend for the boards a bit better and we have proper balance with respect to spacing getting back should not be an issue, plus if that is indeed an acurate stat of nearly 50% from the corner, occasionally giving up a break on a miss is certainly worth it.

Any idea where that stat can be found? I'd certainly like to see it!

beat

beat wrote:Bob

As for all the newbees, (counting Green and Wilcox for this) who has the biggest chip on his shoulder? That is which player has the most to prove and will have that winner take all attitude.

I sort of think it's Lee. (or at least should be Lee)

RA had a very defined role on those C's teams and I just gotta believe that Lee will fill that nicely and expand upon it. Would not surprise me that when Bradley does come back, Lee still remains the starter. Regardless there will be plenty of minutes for both.

You mentioned shooting treys form the corners and then getting back on D. Well if we contend for the boards a bit better and we have proper balance with respect to spacing getting back should not be an issue, plus if that is indeed an acurate stat of nearly 50% from the corner, occasionally giving up a break on a miss is certainly worth it.

Any idea where that stat can be found? I'd certainly like to see it!

beat

beat,

I don't know where the sportswriter got it, I'm looking, but I found some info.

http://hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx

This shows distance from hoop, but not specifically "the corners". Unfortunately, nba.com/hotspots used to show this but they stopped accumulating the data during the 2009-2010 season, so nothing recent. Thanks, Dictator Stern.

Here's a website that lists "Lords of the Corner". Lee is at the bottom of the list, but it's an impressive list.

http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/04/18/lords-of-the-corner-three-pointer/

If you want to make your head explode, here's a pdf that explains the science and statistics behind spatial analysis, i.e. where players shoot best from and where they prefer to shoot from. It's interesting, but it's not a simple chart with names and numbers on it. Sam may appreciate this, since it's kind of technical because it goes into methodology a bit.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Goldsberry_Sloan_Submission.pdf

Then I found this:

http://vorped.com/bball/index.php/player/all


bob


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For unrepentant stat geeks, this looks like an interesting site. I stumbled upon a board discussion where the author of the above vorped.com analysis was introducing himself and his work. We all know stats don't tell anywhere near all, but they are helpful in framing preferences.

http://apbr.org/metrics/index.php

www.vorped.com is the home page of the above link. He appears to be an active analyst, so he'll have some interesting looks at who likes to do what etc.

bob


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Beat and Bob,

Lee is my personal poster boy for an improvement I feel the Celtics desperately need: EASY BASKETS. Courtney's (there HAS to be a shorter nickname—maybe Court) ability to take what the offense presents him will be in sharp contrast to the huge amount of effort (and energy) required for Ray to maintain a high offensive output. And Ray's expenditure of energy on the on the offensive end exacerbated his challenges on the defensive end.

Ray's struggles to get open were symptomatic of the entire offense's propensity to bog down and take up much of the shot clock to run just one play—which too often eventuated in a "hero shot." How many times did we lament the fact that they were settling for jumpers? And, on many occasions, we weren't just talking about jumpers; we were talking about contested jumpers.

I also think Lee has the ability to get to the hoop more frequently and successfully than Ray did, offering a nice counterpoint to Courtney's ability to spread the floor. And it is in this part of the game where I believe Lee's hops will be important as he finishes with more authority than Ray usually did.

Sooner or later, we're almost certainly going to be posting on a thread entitled "Lee vs. Bradley---Who Starts at SG?" And I think it will be a great debate because (assuming Avery recovers his health and his previous form) it definitely won't be a slam dunk in either direction.

IF (a big "IF") both Lee and Bradley perform close to their potential, which would be a better complement for KG, Bass, Pierce and Rondo? And which would be a better complement for Wilcox, Sully, Green and Terry?

At present, I'd lean toward Bradley starting and Lee coming off the bench (with the two perhaps flip-flopping minutes depending on the situation). I think the starters are more in need of the kind of defensive chaos Bradley and Rondo can cause in tandem, and I'm interested in whether Avery can stabilize his outside shooting to complement his emerging instinct for going to the hoop for opportunistic Rondo passes. And I think Lee and Green could man the lanes beautifully in tandem (with Wilcox sometimes getting into that act and alternately being a very effective trailer) IF Terry can be relied upon to fun the break reasonably well.

An evaluation of Terry's adequacy at the PG position will be just one of numerous reasons that the questions in training camp and the early season won't be limited to the youngest players.

Sam