Predicting Celtic Minute Distributions

Personally, I don't agree with his conclusions or his approach, but I'm posting them anyway to stimulate board discussion.
I think Rondo's minutes will be a few lower. The same with Pierce's. Rondo needs to be fresh and Pierce needs to go on KG's 5-5-5 routine. Jeff Green's numbers will go up at 3, as a result. Darko will play more than 5mpg and Wilcox will play more than 10mpg. Otherwise, this team he's envisioning by position and not by 5-man units is too small. I'm sorry, but I'm not a fantasy sports guy and that's all this is. He's picturing the lineup as 5 individual and un-integrated pieces and not as a team. This isn't baseball where a 3rd baseman's .300 batting average is a .300 batting average and this is true regardless of who is in the field against them. Basketball is like ballet. It only looks good if you're in step with the other dancers on the stage.


Predicting the Boston Celtics minute distributions by position


As the season draws closer, the Celtics player rotation still needs to
take shape. This season more than others– with so much depth and
so many impact offseason additions, it remains unclear as to what player
combinations the Celtics will play. Doc Rivers and the rest of the
coaching staff could go many different directions as they have toyed
with ‘position-less’ lineups, with Lee at what would normally be point
guard or Bass playing at what would formally be known as small forward.
Based on the preseason and some soundbites from Doc and the gang, I
made my best guesses as to where the minutes would go by each position,
and had so much fun I did it again with Avery Bradley back in the
lineup. (Thanks to Redsarmy, who did something similar to this post within the last couple of years.)
The Celtics will need to play Rondo a great deal of minutes a night at the
point guard position because of the lack of decision making and passing
coming off the bench. Doc has indicated through preseason minutes that
Terry will be handling most of the ball handling with the second unit,
and thus he will sop up the rest of the minutes at point guard.

Courtney Lee and Jason Terry will be handling the bulk of the shooting guard
minutes, with some supplements from Barbosa. It remains to be seen in
what ways Barbosa can and will contribute, but indications from
his truncated preseason practices are that he can still play, and he
provides depth and versatility for the Celtics. The minutes at shooting
guard will likely be determined by who is hitting shots and meshing
well with Rondo.

Small forward is a little more clear, Pierce will continue to be the
figurehead at small forward. The Celtics being able to go big with
Green or small with Lee should provide some advantageous matchups for
the Celtic’s given both players ability to guard multiple positions.

Power forward seems to be the most liquid position on the Celtics. There has
been talk about who should start, Bass or Sullinger, with both sides
being well represented. I believe it will be Bass– but in the end I
think they will both get their well deserved minutes. Sully is still a
rookie and will have to truly earn any and all of his playing time. I
believe he will– but the beginning of the season he might see more
minutes at center than power forward. Again the C’s have Green coming
off the bench to go small, most likely with Rondo to provide potential
for stunning fast break alley-oops. Kevin Garnett might play some
minutes at the four, with perhaps Sullinger or Wilcox sliding over to
center.

Lastly, there is center,where KG will be playing the largest share of the
minutes. Much of the Celtic’s success last year was attributed to his
position change, a strategy which is likely to be mimicked this season.
The size the Celtics have off the bench should enable Doc to limit
Garnett’s minutes until the games really matter.
In total, here is a look at the minutes played for each player:

• Rajon Rondo: 38
  
• Paul Pierce: 32
  
• Courtney Lee: 31
  
• Jason Terry: 28
  
• Kevin Garnett: 28
  
• Jeff Green: 25
  
• Brandon Bass: 24
  
• Jared Sullinger: 14
  
• Chris Wilcox: 10
  
• Leandro Barbosa: 5
  
• Darko Milicic: 5
  

While I doubt the Celtics will play eleven players on any given night, it
should give a pretty good indication as to how much run each player will
get. Of course injuries and player effectiveness will change any and
all of these predictions.

And just because I can, I gave my best
shot as to what the minutes might looks like when Bradley comes back.
The most notable changes are moving Barbosa’s minutes to be more of a
ball handler,and predictably Bradley sucking up much of the minutes at
the two guard. Center is the only position that did not change at all
due to Bradley’s return.





The minute breakdown would be as follows:

• Rajon Rondo: 35
  
• Paul Pierce: 32
  
• Kevin Garnett: 28
  
• Jeff Green: 25
  
• Brandon Bass: 25
  
• Jason Terry:22
  
• Avery Bradley: 21
  
• Courtney Lee: 18
  
• Jared Sullinger: 13
  
• Chris Wilcox: 10
  
• Leandro Barbosa: 6
  
• Darko Milicic: 5
  

Again the Celtics most likely will not go to a 12-man rotation, but it will
be interesting to see how and where Avery Bradley’s playing time occurs
with, and who will lose minutes upon his reinsertion into the lineup.




bob




.

Bob,
Thanks for the article.
My prrediction is this.
BAB (before AB comes back)
PG: RR-36, JT-8, LB-4
SG: CL-24, JT-20, LB-4
SF: PP-28, JG-16, CLL-4
PF: BB-20, JS-20, JG-8
C: KG-26, DM-10, CW-10, JC-2

AAB
PG: RR-36, JT-8, LB-4
SG: AB-20, CL-20, JT-8
SF: PP-28, JG-16, CL-4
PF: BB-20, JS-20, JG-8
C: KG-26, DM-10, CW-10, JC-2

This prediction is based on the only known variable - AB coming back in Dec. If there're other injuries the minutes are for grabs.
Also, I hope Doc will come up with and will use several effective combinations that bring havoc in opponents camp.

AK

Our 12 man roster is as deep as I've ever seen. I can envision all 12 players making significant contributions regardless of minutes played.

Well done Danny. Now let the games begin!

A few observations.

I think both KG and PP become 30 MPG players this year.

Jeff Green must get 30 minutes per game. (he is that good) I think he will be the 2nd leading scorer on the team behind PP.

I would like to see RR get down to around 36 but if the collection of BU PG's are not able to run the offense RR may play more minutes.

Also if Darko is healthy he should get more than 5 MPG. I would not play jared at the 5. he is no 5 and will not be able to defend that position.

I want to see our main core guys with experience get the minutes, Guys Like Bass, Wilcox, Terry and Lee. The new big 4 are KG, PP RR and JG. This team goes 10 deep and if they intend to change the way they play all 10 guys are going to need minutes. Add Bradley to the mix and you have a hellava rotation. I think Sullinger and Barbosa will get some minutes but also some DNP's

I think Darko has shown enough to get the BU center position until he falters or until Wilcox is ready. Jason Collins is available to give a few fouls every game.

I expect to see this team have 7-8 players in double figures every game. But I am still waiting for this team to commit 100% to fast break basketball. They need to put up more shots. It would be great to see them put up 25 shots per QTR.

dboss

I agree with bobh that Pierce should join KG in the 5-5-5 club. That would limit their minutes to 30, as dboss states. If Pierce was feeling it, Doc could let him play a couple minutes past the 5 minutes. Then, however long his minutes exceeded 5, his next break would exceed 5 minutes by that same amount. He would then average a 5-5-5 plan, but it would be more flexible to his playing style.

After what I saw in the pre-season, I agree with dboss that Jeff Green must get 30 minutes. For that to happen, Green will have to spend some time at the 4 and perhaps, Pierce spends a little time at the 2.

I'd like to see Sully playing at the same time as KG. Not every time KG plays, but Sully does get minutes, KG is on the court as well. Sully will clean up the glass on the weak side!!

gyso

Dboss and gyso,

I think Doc does plan to play Sullinger at the center position with a small lineup against other small lineups. We could see that as early as the Heat game, as the Heat can be expected to go small at times. It's difficult for me to envision Sully getting DNPs if he keeps rebounding as he has.

If I were Doc, I'd buy a dart board.

Sam

Last year, Doc had a unique challenge, getting the team in shape and in synch while coping with a shortened season, a succession of injuries, and a lack of depth.

This year is completely different. Doc has gone on record as saying this is how he always wanted to coach. Good luck to him. He has free rein as far as I'm concerned. He's gotten so effective in his job he's practically beyond criticism. That's just another reason this season's going to be so much fun.

Every player, no matter where he sits on the bench, every once in a while has a game when his feet fly and he can't miss with his eyes closed. Sametime, every player has a game when he can't throw the ball into the ocean - because the hurricane throws it back!

Doc somehow has to figure out every time they take the floor which guy is feeling it or not, and coach accordingly. Even then, there are guys like Paul who seem to rise to the occasion and play their best when they're hurting the worst.

In 'Red and Me', Bill Russell raved about what a mathematician Red was at the science of basketball, taking into account all the permutations and combinations of every player on the floor and the bench. He had a computer in his head with a database filled with a seemingly infinite number on incidents Red had witnessed in his life on a basketball court and off. He developed Red's immutable laws of basketball: for example, Rule 318: Don't eat pancakes the day of the game, even if it's midnight and the game isn't until 7:30 P.M.

Spike,

Don't remind Sam Jones about the pancakes. That whole episode must have left a bad taste in his mouth.

Sam