Goodbye Kris and Gerald?

Sam

Where there is smoke there is fire.  The Knicks have been trying to dump Amar'e for a few years.  He has a big contract and no insurance, him and Carmelo do not play well together and the Knicks are hoping to be a player in the 2015 free agency market.

This is a trade that we can all live with.  It shortens the pain of the Wallace contract and provides at the least a short term solution to our woes at center.  Worse case scenario, Amar'e is done and the knee (s) are completely shot and the Celtics have to live with paying him for 2 years.  Still not bad considering that we owe Wallace $30 Mill and Humphries is a short timer.

DA can pull off this deal and not compromise the long term future of the team.  Guys like Bradley, Sully and KO continue to develop and mid range veterans like Green and Rondo provide leadership.  If we can hit on a 1 or 2 draft picks we will be back in contention relatively soon.  

The Knicks are in a mess so this is a good opportunity to do business with them.

dboss

TJ

Wallace has a bad attitude and is not a good fit for this team.  Yes I do like his energy  but it flows both ways with him.  He is as negative as he is positive.  He does not really want to play in Boston,  He does not really want to play behind Green.  He is not mentally vested in the Celtics.  

It is very unlikely that the Celtics would  eat $20 mill in a waiver deal.

Humphries is not a bad guy.  But we have 2 young forwards that need to play now to get better.  Yes we could just let his contract expire and that would be OK with me.

Stats knees are an issue but if his minutes can be managed he could help the team during the transition period.

I would roll the dice and make this deal.  Playing Wallace and/or Humphries this year makes no meaningful difference.  If stat cannot help ...fine In the end we will have one less year to put up with a bad contract.

dboss

I saw this rumor but couldn't find the time to post it.

1.  I've never seen a trade that works out to the penny, so I don't see TJ's point about having to send $3M to NYK.  It just has to work out to within +/-25%.  Besides, $3M is chump change to these guys.

$12M (Hump) + $10,108,855 (Crash) = $22,108,155
$21,679,893 (Amar'e)
$22,108, 155 - $21,670,893 = $429,262 net reduction in payroll by the Celtics and well within 25%.

Without using a Trade Machine, this deal, as stated, can work.


2.  I'd like to point out that the Bleacher Report article is titled "Here's the Trade the Knicks Might Need to Make with Boston".  I think it would be safe to say this article was written from the perspective of a sense of urgency from the Knicks, not us.  Also, consider, this is a Bleacher Report.

3.  We have a logjam at 4.  I like Hump, he's been a good trouper and has played well in the limited minutes Stevens has played him, but we don't need him.  I've extolled Crash's value to the team, although I wish he'd STFU and just ball, but his contract has always been the worst part of the Brooklyn trade.

4.  Amare's has two years left on his contract.  That means that next year he is an expiring contract.  The chances of unloading him by the trade deadline during the 2014-2015 season is decent.  In the case of expiring contracts, bigger is better.  By that standard, Amare's (if you already have one apostrophe in your name do you get a second one for a possessive?) expiring $21+M contract next year is better than Hump's $12M this year.  Add into that the additional year we'd have to wait before Wallace's contract became an expiring contract and this takes on a new shape.  When you're rebuilding/transitioning, one year isn't that much of a difference in the bigger picture.  It took Danny 5 years to accumulate the assets necessary to pull off the KG/Ray trades.  With all the draft picks he has picked up and some nice core players (Sully, KO and Bradley) he's ahead of that schedule now, but we shouldn't delude ourselves into thinking that this will just be a one year transition.  

5.  Danny has a $10M trade exception he has to use by July 8th (I think it's the 8th).  Maybe he thinks that's all he needs/can handle this off season and Hump's expiring one is just excess.  By "all he needs" what I mean is that there are certain players he has his eyes on, every GM does.  If some of the players he wants won't be available this coming off season (i.e. too many years on their contract left, considered too valuable to be traded) then having the cap room to sign them this coming off season doesn't help.

6.  By reducing the payroll by $429,262 with this trade, it gives the Celtics (along with the roughly same amount of money they are already under the cap) enough, or close to it, to sign a vet minimum player.  Chris Wilcox?  In fact, if this deal were to go down, the roster would be down to 13, and I think we'd need to pick up at least one more player within a few weeks to comply with the CBA.  Know how we've been saying that Danny should pull off a 2-1 deal to free up some roster slots for some Red Claws (DeShawn Sims?  He is the only one of the camp invitees who did NOT sign with Maine. His Wikipedia doesn't say he's playing anywhere, he might have just given up the dream, but it is now possible if Wallace is gone because then we'll have no depth at 3.  Romero Osby?  He's that player we just made a big deal about gaining the rights to)?

7.  Amar'e is done.  We all know that.  Maybe he even knows it.  But he can play minutes (he's not injured), is a veteran who knows all about the league and how it does and doesn't work, is better mentoring material than Crash who only seems to know how to talk to people one way, and does play 5 (Hump is being dragooned into that job, but he is way out of position, even more than Sully) and we sure could use someone who will let Kelly and Sully spend more time playing their more natural position, 4. Then again, if Stevens is preaching the glory of playing defense, then Amar'e is not a player you want in the pivot.

We're watching sausage being made, and that's never pretty.  This year is about development and the accumulation of assets.  Same with next year.  Even if Red pulls some strings with the Big Man Upstairs and lands us Wiggins (or Parker or Randle) it will still take another year or two after that for those talents to ripen and the team to glue.

Patience, grasshoppers, patience.  :-) As the season progresses the pressure on teams like the Knicks and Nets and Clips and Heat will ratchet up exponentially and people/organizations under time/milestone pressures do things they wouldn't do otherwise.

Often to their detriment.


bob


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TJ

Assuming Amare rots on the bench, the odor would be overwhelming and well worth keeping WALLACE.

Ultimately I think Boston is in win, win situation with or without this trade.

Dboss

Bob

Good points.

This is all speculation but the Knicks have a lot of pressure to make a move.

Dboss

dboss wrote:Bob

Good points.

This is all speculation  but the Knicks have a lot of pressure to make a move.  

Dboss

dboss,

Yep, this is all speculation, and the Knicks ARE under a lot of pressure to make something happen.  

Napoleon said "never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake".

If the Knicks are tripping all over themselves to "do something!  do something!", then the best thing to do is wait and let the pressure build on them.  Remember the Doc Rivers Saga from this past summer?  Everybody was screaming about how Danny had to "do something!  This is intolerable!  Do something!" and he just sat and waited patiently until the pressure on Clips management, applied by CP3, ratcheted up until Danny got exactly what he wanted.  The pressure, now, will be applied by Carmelo Anthony.  He wants to be on a winner, he's in his final year, they desperately, desperately want to re-sign him and we've all heard the rumors about how Kobe would love to have Carmelo in LA (and you can believe Knicks management has heard them too.  You can also believe they are looking at the cap space the Lakers will have after this year).  If this, or a deal similar to it (maybe including Lee for Shumpert, or maybe another draft pick?), is something that Danny wants then every day that goes by where the Knicks are not moving towards a much better playoff seed is another bullet in Danny's gun.

Speculating about whether this deal will or will not happen is useless, wasted time, IMO.  We have no control, influence or insight into all that.  What is fun, for me, is examining how our rebuilding/transitioning position over the next 2-3 years will improve should such a deal goes down.  The fact that Amar'e is useless, to me, is irrelevant since my #18 championship horizon is several years out.  If Danny traded for LBJ (NOT bloody likely), unless he was able to do that for a bunch of spare parts (even LESS bloody likely), we'd still be a few years out since Rondo and LBJ would need more support after Danny had to give value to receive value.  Even the Miami Heat, fully loaded with LBJ and Bosh and Battier etal, needed another year before they won a championship.


bob


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tjmakz wrote:Bob,

Amare's contract increases almost $2m next year.
Wallace's contract stays the same over the 3 years.
The overall cost would be higher for NY to take on Amare compared to Humphries for 1 year and Wallace for 3.

TJ,

Perhaps so, but that doesn't take into account the Repeater Tax that will kick in next year. That could easily blow the numbers sideways. Also, it doesn't take into account that the Knicks are 'now' driven and we are not and that will make them make decisions for short-term gain.

These financial decisions are made not just upon total contract amounts but upon other issues too, including what years money is freed up. The Knicks may very well be willing to eat more money, overall over a couple of years, if it means getting some players that will help them keep their franchise player. If you think they're worried about picking up a couple million dollars more here, imagine their fear of revenue loss if 'Melo bolts.

Especially since there is now a viable (sorta, kinda) crosstown rival Gotham hoop fans can gravitate to.


bob


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tjmakz wrote:Bob,

The repeater tax only adds another $1.00/$1.00 onto the luxury tax rates.
The new luxury tax rates starting this season are the real killer for teams over the luxury tax line.
This would be a very good trade for New York.
The overall money is less and they get better players.
For Boston, the only thing that this will accomplish is to suck more then they do now.
Maybe that's a good thing, who knows...???

Stoudemire's contract is so big next year, he will be almost untradeable.
It's like Pau's this year.
It's hard for the Lakers to trade Pau to a contender because it's hard for teams to come close to matching salaries for a player making $19.3m.

TJ,

Will Stoudemire's contract be so big he'll be untradeable?  Maybe, certainly untradeable straight up.

NYK salary next year will be $67,686,515.  That is not including Anthony (assuming he does opt out of his $23,530,000 option).  For someone with 10+ years experience, like 'Melo, the max he can sign for is 105% of this contract or 35% of the salary cap.  Here is the relevant part of the CBA:

The maximum amount of money a player can sign for is based on the number of years that player has played and the total of the salary cap. The maximum salary of a player with 6 or fewer years of experience is either $9,000,000 or 25% of the total salary cap (2010–11: $14,511,000), whichever is greater. For a player with 7–9 years of experience, the maximum is $11,000,000 or 30% of the cap (2010–11: $17,413,200), and for a player with 10+ years of experience, the maximum is $14,000,000 or 35% of the cap (2010–2011: $20,315,400).[10] There is an exception to this rule, a player is able to sign a contract for 105% of his previous contract, even if the new contract is higher than the league limit.[11] For example, in the 2013-14 season Kobe Bryant is contracted for $30,453,000[12] (the contract which was signed prior to the 2011 CBA rule changes), Bryant could (in theory) sign a contract starting at $31,975,650 (105% of his previous contract), for the 2014-2015 season and rising thereafter (in practice this contract is very unlikely to be offered, as it would severely impede the team's ability to sign further players due to the salary cap).

This year's salary cap is $58.679M.  Assuming the salary cap next year is the same, 35% of $58.679 is $20.538M.  I realize 'Melo's not the brightest bulb in the box but his agent, Leon Rose, is pretty sharp and I'm sure he'll figure out that 105% of $23,530,000 ($24,706,500) is more than $20, 530,000.  This means that unless 'Melo really, really, really hates NY, he's going to stay there.

If he signs for the exact same money (he won't, he'll sign for at least a little more) that would bring the NYK salary back up to $91,216,515 again.  

Are you saying that being able to cut Hump after this year, which would take $12M off their salary, wouldn't be appealing to them?  Look at it any way you want, it would take away $12M worth of repeater tax, at $1:$1.  That more than offsets whatever handful of millions Wallace and Hump's contracts together cost more and, as you said, eliminates an untradeable contract.


bob


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TJ

If Amar'e can play and RR comes back strong..the team could make some noise.

Two ifs....da is prepairing to resign AB and they need reduce payroll sooner.

It is more of a financial fine tunning.

Dboss