Assessing Kelly Olynyk's Rookie Campaign

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/1/27/5348056/kelly-olynyk-celtics-rookie


Assessing Kelly Olynyk’s Rookie Campaign
By Alex Skillin  @AlexSkillin on Jan 27 2014, 11:26a 12


Kelly Olynyk has had an up-and-down rookie season. - Jared Wickerham
After a strong performance at the Orlando Summer League, Kelly Olynyk entered his rookie season with some big expectations. How has he done so far?


Kelly Olynyk came into his rookie season with the Celtics with some pretty high expectations. The Gonzaga product had been one of the Orlando Summer League’s best players, averaging 18 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game over five contests. This came after Danny Ainge had traded up to nab Olynyk in last June’s draft and a few observers labeled him with some rather unfair Dirk Nowitzki comparisons.

Now that we are more than halfway into Olynyk’s rookie season, we finally have some solid (if limited) evidence of what the 7-foot big man can do at the NBA level. The 22-year-old did miss 10 games earlier in the season, and he is still fighting to get consistent minutes, so Olynyk’s development is by no means near completion.

Even so, we can draw some conclusions from Olynyk’s first 36 games as a pro. What do the stats and our eyes tell us about Olynyk so far?

Well, there is little doubting the Canadian native has struggled with the speed of the NBA game. Brad Stevens has brought him along slowly, and Olynyk has played over 35 minutes just once since returning from injury on December 13. As such, his per game stats aren’t terribly impressive (6.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists per contest), but when measured per 36 minutes (13.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists) Olynyk’s rookie performance becomes a bit more promising.


Offense

The 7-footer’s biggest problem on offense has been efficiency, as his 41.6% field-goal percentage and 29.8% three-point percentage are nothing to write home about. As his shot chart indicates, Olynyk has been inconsistent from nearly everywhere on the court:




Olynyk’s performance within the paint and at the rim has been strong, though. According to NBA.com, he is shooting 61.0% within 12 feet, a mark comparable to scorers like Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade and also similar to fellow big man Al Horford. Olynyk has been even better when shooting near the basket, making 69.4% of his shots at the rim, according to Basketball-Reference. This is among the best marks on the Celtics, ranking ahead of Jared Sullinger (who is shooting 59.6% at the rim) and Brandon Bass (62.0%) and just behind Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries.

When we move further out from the basket, however, Olynyk’s shooting performances worsen, with Basketball-Reference indicating that he has made just 29.2% of his jump shots in 2013-14. This number should improve down the stretch for Olynyk, who shot the ball well during his time at Gonzaga and will likely benefit if he can remain healthy in the season’s final months.


Passing and Rebounding

Dating all the way back to the summer league in Orlando, Olynyk has impressed with his passing ability. His 3.0 assists per 36 minutes demonstrate this fact, and there is no denying that he is a tremendous passer for his size. The big man could serve to cut down on his turnovers a bit (a common problem for any rookie, to be fair), but regardless, Olynyk is exceedingly comfortable with the ball in his hands.

Nevertheless, for a 7-footer, Olynyk hasn’t been the best rebounder. His 13.1% total rebounding percentage is by no means top notch. Furthermore, stats from NBA.com’s SportsVu data demonstrate that Olynyk has grabbed rebounds on just 52.4% of his chances—the third-lowest percentage on the Celtics. In one sense, Olynyk profiles best as a center at the NBA level, but I wonder if his subpar rebounding abilities will ever allow him to excel as a center.


Defense

In many ways, Olynyk’s limitations and weaknesses all come to a head on the defensive end. Thus far in 2013-14, the Celtics defense has performed noticeably better with Olynyk on the bench (103.6 defensive rating) than on the court (108.3). Much of Olynyk’s defensive deficiencies begin with his lack of quickness and athleticism, something our own Kevin O’ Connor wrote the Celtics are trying to improve.

At the moment, Olynyk struggles to guard many of the quicker power forwards in the league, and his defense at the rim leaves much to be desired. According to data from NBA.com’s SportsVu, Olynyk has allowed opponents to shoot 60.3% at the rim, which is the second-highest mark on the Celtics behind only Avery Bradley. These issues point to some of the more crucial weaknesses in Olynyk’s game—he isn’t quite quick or athletic enough to guard many of the league’s top power forwards, and his strength and rebounding aren’t quite on par with that of a typical NBA center.

Some of this can no doubt be improved upon. Olynyk is only 22, and he will continue to get stronger. And the Celtics have already identified improving Olynyk’s quickness and agility as a top priority.

All in all, Olynyk’s shortcomings are typical of most NBA rookies. Like many young big men, Olynyk will need to work on improving his jump shot, both from the mid-range and perimeter. His success at the rim and from in close demonstrates a player who already has a soft touch and a nose for finishing.

The 22-year-old might always be a slight liability on the defensive end, but more time spent adjusting to the speed of the NBA game and in the weight room should help him improve. If he can stay healthy and get some consistent playing time down the stretch, Olynyk should be in a good place heading into the offseason. Ultimately, it will be about how much work Olynyk is willing to put in to improve his game. Considering how much he improved in a short period of time at Gonzaga, this bodes well for both Olynyk and the Celtics.




bob



.

I wish I thought that all he needs is a lot of work. Heavy feet and an aversion to defensive contact are difficult, if not impossible, to overcome. But I like the kid, think he has excellent spirit, and hope he can become a consistent contributor.

Sam

Below chart is a comparison of 2013-14 players in their rookie season.Its based on only those players that have played a minimum of 576 minutes so far this season, which places them in the top 7 or 8 on a team roster.--- swish

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2014&year_max=2014&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=18&age_max=22&height_min=63&height_max=91&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=576&c2stat=pts_per_mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=efg_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=age

Swish,

I understand the figures, but is there a point those stats are supposed to make? At first, I was confused as to how the rankings were assigned, but I now understand the players are ranked by their ages. It's too bad compilations such as that one don't reflect defensive abilities. That's where Kelly's real Achilles' Heel is.

Sam

I'm thinking Kelly was the wrong pick.

Danny's drafting is usually pretty good but at #13, Kelly was picked too high for what he brings to the table. I'm going to go ahead and count this one as a miss.


KJ

I am not going to give up on him so early. He has the BBIQ going for him. The ankle sprain took two months of his development away earlier this season. For all we know, the ankle may still be bothering him.

I would be curious as to how many players picked 12, 13, 14 in the last 10 years or so really come out their first year with a full understanding of how the NBA game works.

Its not about this year anyway. I suggest we all wait until this time next season before throwing in the towel on this 7 footer.

gyso

sam wrote:Swish,

I understand the figures, but is there a point those stats are supposed to make?  At first, I was confused as to how the rankings were assigned, but I now understand the players are ranked by their ages.  It's too bad compilations such as that one don't reflect defensive abilities.  That's where Kelly's real Achilles' Heel is.

Sam

sam,

If you click on a particular column it sorts them by that stat.  If you do that then Kelly usually ends up in the middle to top-3 in most categories.

As far as his defense, I'm thinking I'm starting to see some glimmers in his help defense.  It will be some time, and a few more pounds, before he will be more than a weak man-to-man defender, but it seems to me his rotations are getting quicker.  He's a smart player, gyso is right in saying he has BBIQ and help defense is about IQ as much if not more than talent.

Maybe those are my green goggles misting the truth, but...

You haven't seen improvements in his help defense?


bob


.

Bob,

Yes, I clicked on various columns and saw mostly middle of the pack stuff. Guards averaging more rebounds than Olynyk. I truly didn't know whether Swish was attempting to present Kelly in a good light or a mediocre light.

I hear all about how extra poundage will help him. But I wonder whether spending so much time without that poundage has stuck him with "avoidance" habits that are now instinctive.

I've seen a few improvements in his help defense, especially in doubling opponents when they're vulnerable and coauthoring a couple of nice blocks But, what I've seen mostly is a matador performance with opponents cruising to the rim almost at will or, alternatively, cruising to the foul line.

Maybe his IQ will pull him through. He is one of the quicker thinkers on the team, and he's seldom out of position. It's just that, even when he's in the right defensive position, nothing happens a lot of the time.

Sam

Bob

Thanks for pointing out how to organize each stat column from best to worse. My mistake for not pointing this out. I would think that it will take another 2-3 full years, if we are lucky, for the Celts to become a top 6-8 contender. At 2-3 million per year why not play Kelly and see if he can develop into, at worse, a top 7-8 rotation player on a serious contender. Lets see how Kelly rates 3 years from now when it really means something.

Swish

swish wrote:Bob

Thanks for pointing out how to organize each stat column from best to worse. My mistake for not pointing this out. I would think that it will take another 2-3 full years, if we are lucky, for the Celts to become a top 6-8 contender. At 2-3 million per year why not play Kelly and see if he can develop into, at worse, a top 7-8 rotation player  on a serious contender. Lets see how Kelly rates 3 years from now when it really means something.  

Swish

Kelly was the wrong pick. I don't think he's terrible, but he was the wrong guy for Ainge to select.

There has been a gaping hole at the center spot for a few years now, and are we expected to believe that Kelly is the answer to it?

I think he's going to be moved at some point, as soon as he's good enough for Ainge to entice a prospective trade partner into trading for him.



KJ

Danny's alternatives for a center to draft at#13 in 2013?

worcester wrote:Danny's alternatives for a center to draft at#13 in 2013?

Could've taken Dieng from Louisville.

The problem with Kelly is he has too many deficiencies to quantify being taken so early in the draft.

He's more of a 2nd rounder.

Dieng would have helped. For now all we can do is wait/hope to see if KO develops into what Danny saw within him.