Assuming Minimal Changes, How Good Could This Team Be Next Year?

Assuming minimal changes, how good could this team be next year?

By Jeff Clark  @celticsblog on Mar 8 2014, 7:00a 22



Sometimes the best plan is the simplest.


I've always kind of taken it as a given that there will be fireworks this summer. Danny Ainge has draft picks, trade assets, and 20 or so GMs lined up to call him about Rajon Rondo. There are trade exceptions and stretch provisions and restricted free agents that all could complicate things further and Ainge is anything if not ...creative.

Still, there's always a chance that I'm hyping this up way too much. (I mean, I am blogger) After all, there are very few rebuilding plans that last a single year. Historically it has taken at least a couple of years and usually more. Besides, you can't hit a home run with a trade if the other team isn't willing to throw you a pitch to hit.

So what happens if we quietly make our picks on draft night, match a reasonable market offer to Avery Bradleyand call it a summer?

Here's my take at what that would look like both financially and on the court. First the finances (with some assumptions on my part).

Name...................2014-15 Salaries
Rajon Rondo........12,909,0902
Gerald Wallace.....10,105,8553
Jeff Green.............9,200,0004
Brandon Bass........6,900,0005
Joel Anthony.........3,800,0006
Avery Bradley........*7,000,0007
Vitor Faverani.........2,090,0008
Kelly Olynyk...........2,075,7609
Jared Sullinger.......1,424,52010
Phil Pressey...........816,48211
Chris Johnson........915,24312
Colton Iverson.......*816,48213
Rookie #1...............3,187,69214
Rookie #2...............1,325,600
Total......................62,566,724
* Projected salary


A few minor notes here:

The salary cap is going to be around $62M but we can re-sign Bradley and add guys on rookie deals and veteran minimum deals to go over the cap (but under the tax). I made a swag guess at Bradley's salary but I think it could range anywhere from $6M to $8M depending on what kind of interest he gets elsewhere.

I'm guessing Iverson comes over from Turkey. Not sure exactly how much he'd get, but I used Pressey's deal as filler. I think we could fill that 15th spot with Chris Babbif he keeps playing the way he has lately as well.

There's also chance that the Celtics could re-sign Kris Humphries (who's been solid) and Jerryd Bayless (has his moments). But in the above scenario, I'm not sure if the team would want to commit more long term money on guys that aren't game changers.

Here's the key. Is this team any good? Or are we looking at another trip to the lottery? And is that an inherently bad thing?

Here's what the lineup looks like (without adding in the draft picks)

PG: Rondo, PresseySG: Bradley, JohnsonSF: Green, Wallace, Babb?PF: Sullinger, BassC: Olynyk, Faverani, Anthony, Iverson

A lot depends on who the Celtics draft with their first pick, obviously. Embiid, Parker, or Wiggins would likely force their way into the rotation, if not the starting lineup, before too long. Randle or Exum might as well. Whomever we get with the Nets/Hawks pick will likely be a reserve for the time being.

I'd say that the best case scenario (again, assuming no trades) would be getting Embiid and seeing how everyone develops. A fully healthy Rondo and Bradley backcourt would be solid to say the least. Sullinger would be a year older and would compliment Embiid on the block. Jeff Green would still shoulder a big portion of the scoring load, but when he's off Rondo could step up (or find someone else to fill in). Bass, Olynyk, Crash, Pressey, and the 2nd draft pick coming off the bench. I could talk myself into that group being a fringe playoff team in the East.

Our own wjsy is optimistic as well.

Window shopping - CelticsBlog

If he sticks with this youth movement and stands pat with the roster, he'll hand Stevens a roster made up of three rookies, four sophomores, a healthy Rondo, and a handful of vets that he's leaned on this year. There could be some moves around the margins, but there's enough guys here to start busting out the hard hats and really making progress on the rebuild.

I have some guarded optimism with what a summer of weight training could do for Sullinger and Olynyk. The spotlight will shift over to the two prized rookies from this year's class and they'll be given more leeway in what we expect from them. And as these younger players start to cement their roles in the lineup, their improvement and consistency will lessen the burden on Green to be a go-to guy every night.Brad Stevens will have a year under his belt as an NBA head coach and Rondo will reap the benefits of a full training camp rather than swimming upstream in his mid-season return.

Of course this assumes that Rajon Rondo is on board with the long haul building plan. He'll be a free agent at the end of next season so if he's patient enough, he can watch these kids grow up around him. In the summer of 2015 the deals for Bass and Anthony expire and the team could have enough cap space to bring him back and add another bigtime free agent next to him. And of course we'll have another 2 draft picks to use that year as well.

I can't picture Danny Ainge sitting on his hands and not trying to make some moves along the way, but if he can't find anything better, he at least has the option of playing it safe. If anything, knowing that he has this fallback option gives him more leverage in trade negotiations.

So what do you think? How good could this team be just running it back and adding the rookies?



bob


.

OK...lets say picking at #5 and #17 ( I think where we currently set).

5. Smart , Exum  and Vonleh should be there

17. R. Hood, K. Anderson and maybe W. Cauley-Stein might be there.

so lets say Ainge picks Smart and Cauley-Stein

we still have a glut at PF with Sully, Bass and KO.

Smart means that we Look to re-sign Bradley at a bargain or let him leave in a sign and trade for future assets, IMO.


so for arguments sake, lets say Ainge lets Bradley go for a late first in 2015.

then he revisits the Center problem.......offering Bass and a 2105 first round pick (not ours). If Houston doesn't bite (and I think they will) we try Milwaukee for Saunders.

I'll assume we get the Asik deal done with Houston.

Roster at this point:

Asik
Fav
Cauley-Stein (D-leaguer his first year)

Sully
KO
Anthony

Green
Wallace


Smart
Johnson

Rondo
Pressey

this roster is at  about $57M using THEIR numbers ( No Bradley and Asik's cap # is 8.3M comopared to Bass' 6.9M).

so we have 2-3 roster spots to fill.

Bayless at $3M fills one spot

CJ Miles at $3M fills another

both sign 2-3 year deals max.

one spot left for Minimum wage rook or d-leaguer type.

cap space at $64M.

all draft picks still there for future moves.

Assuming minimal changes and a healthy team... 35-41 wins.

More wins because there would be more continuity. But not a huge amount of wins as a result of a lack of a center. Brad's coaching will improve, but he still has yet to get this team running enough on a nightly basis.



KJ

Why would anyone let Avery Bradley - a starting 2 guard who scores 15 ppg and is the best lock down defender in the NBA go for a late first round pick?   

kdp59 wrote:OK...lets say picking at #5 and #17 ( I think where we currently set).

5. Smart , Exum  and Vonleh should be there

17. R. Hood, K. Anderson and maybe W. Cauley-Stein might be there.

so lets say Ainge picks Smart and Cauley-Stein

we still have a glut at PF with Sully, Bass and KO.

Smart means that we Look to re-sign Bradley at a bargain or let him leave in a sign and trade for future assets, IMO.


so for arguments sake, lets say Ainge lets Bradley go for a late first in 2015.

then he revisits the Center problem.......offering Bass and a 2105 first round pick (not ours). If Houston doesn't bite (and I think they will) we try Milwaukee for Saunders.

I'll assume we get the Asik deal done with Houston.

Roster at this point:

Asik
Fav
Cauley-Stein (D-leaguer his first year)

Sully
KO
Anthony

Green
Wallace


Smart
Johnson

Rondo
Pressey

this roster is at  about $57M using THEIR numbers ( No Bradley and Asik's cap # is 8.3M comopared to Bass' 6.9M).

so we have 2-3 roster spots to fill.

Bayless at $3M fills one spot

CJ Miles at $3M fills another

both sign 2-3 year deals max.

one spot left for Minimum wage rook or d-leaguer type.

cap space at $64M.

all draft picks still there for future moves.

kdp,

I don't understand how your roster changes that involve swapping a sometime stating forward for a starting center and possibly trading our starting SG would be described as "minimal change"?


bob


.

Until this team gets an impact rim protector, the main issue will probably not be number of wins and losses.  It's more likely the issue will be the ability of this team to develop at a reasonable pace with an unbalanced roster.  Without the rim protector, the defense will continue to necessitate so many compromises and adjustments that there will be very little "normalcy" in its development efforts.  And a sub par defense will invariably drag down both the morale and the offensive rhythm.

Sam

kdp,

I don't understand how your roster changes that involve swapping a sometime  stating forward for a starting center and possibly trading our starting SG would be described as "minimal change"?


bob


.

well...I suppose I don't see an off-season with only Ainge picking two rookies in the draft.

I don't think any Celtic fan (or Ainge himself) will be happy with  starting next season with a roster of:

C- Fav
C- Cauley-Stein ( #17)
C/F- Olynyk
C/F- Anthony
PF- Sully
PF- Bass
SF- Green
SF- Wallace
F/G- Babb-??
G- Bradley
G- Smart ( #5)
G- Johnson
PG- Rondo
PG- Bayless- (I'll add him at $3M)
PG- Pressey


I think that's a roster that might get Ainge in some hot water very quick. I see that team as a 30 win roster.

Paying Bradley $7M or MORE a year and drafting Smart at #5 makes no sense to me ( I see Smart as a combo guard not a point in the NBA). But I also think Bradley has proven to be  too limited offensively and WAY to injury prone , to pay him that type of money. My limit for Bradley would be about $5M per year.

and finally I believe the BIGGEST two needs this team has is an NBA starting Center and a go -to scorer.

if we pick at 5 or below, we will likely miss out on both in this years draft .

mrkleen09 wrote:Why would anyone let Avery Bradley - a starting 2 guard who scores 15 ppg and is the best lock down defender in the NBA go for a late first round pick?   

whatever I could get, if he gets an offer over $5M per.

he's yet to average 15 (14.3 this year) a game and no one considers him a go-to scorer.

is a career 43% FG shot.

he has more turnovers than assists (bad for any guard)

he misses on average a third of each season with injuries (MAJOR problem when paying someone).

I personally feel Bradley is a bit over-rated on defense by Celtic fans, I may be proven wrong on this if another team offers him the $7-8M he's looking for.

you can do better for $6-8M a year, IMO.

we need a starting Center and a go-to scorer on tis team...if trading Bradley can help fill one of those spots, I do it in a minute.

kdp,

Avery Bradley was arguably the most consistent scoring option this year before he was injured. He was the best 3 point shooter and his game was really showing great improvement.

His defense actually is more than just individual; it has a residual effect on the rest of the team and it raises their intensity as a whole. Bradley's only problem on defense is that he lacks a big intimidator behind him to protect the rim.

Bradley is worth keeping at $8M. There's not many two-way guards in this league.



KJ

Cauley Stein looks like a big stiff to me, hes Thabeet like and this draft may have a few legit star wings, but after Embiid, its all a crapshoot at 5, maybe McHale can work his magic and get his side to cough up Asik, in limited minutes Asik still always makes an impact on defense....at this point I'd even give up Bradley in a package to land Asik. I love watching AB defend, but its easier to replace a 2 or 3 than acquire a young impact defensive force at 5.

While I like Bradley as a player keeping him would not necessarily be a priority for me. Has anyone else noticed that he shoots extremely well in the first quarter of most games and then his shot gradually leaves him? This is most likely because his defensive play takes so much out of him that his legs won't support his shot.
Also he is very injury prone. Not his fault, but if you need a consistent shooter at the 2, I'm not sure Bradley's your man. At least not for a ton of money. Love the kid and his attitude but Danny is a realist.

k_j_88 wrote:kdp,

Avery Bradley was arguably the most consistent scoring option this year before he was injured. He was the best 3 point shooter and his game was really showing great improvement.

His defense actually is more than just individual; it has a residual effect on the rest of the team and it raises their intensity as a whole. Bradley's only problem on defense is that he lacks a big intimidator behind him to protect the rim.

Bradley is worth keeping at $8M. There's not many two-way guards in this league.



KJ

we obviously differ in our opinions on Bradley.

I don't see him as ever being a consistent go-to scorer in the NBA or even a number two option, on a good team. I could be wrong of course.

his constant injury problems would scare me off at anything approaching $8M per year.

But Ainge DID offer him a bit over $7M I believe, so he must value Bradley close to where you do.

He plays too tough for his body, hes a point battling 2's and it has to wear on him....when hes right love watching him defend, never saw anyone shutdown Steph Curry like the way he did. If we do keep him, will still be happy and look forward to him battling the Westbrooks and Derick Rose, he even did a great job on Harden this year, kid will battle.

I still maintain that the way Avery plays defense is largely based on very high-level athleticism.  I believe I'm already seeing some erosion in his athleticism (or maybe he's found it necessary to pace himself as his minutes have increased) because he's not in opponents' shorts from the mid-court line nearly as much as he used to be.  That fact, plus the second half offensive falloffs mentioned by Berlin, place doubt in my mind as to how long he'll be physically able to be either a premier defender or a very satisfactory shooter.

I know all about his defense a couple of years ago and his offensive improvement in the past 12 months-or-so.  But I'm trying to project into the future as to whether he can maintain or improve on those levels of competence.

I'm actually enjoying Bayless' game right now—both in creating his own shot (whereas Bradley is more of a catch-and-shoot guy) and playing opponents tightly on defense (he actually has more steals per minute than Bradley, although I realize that good defense involves a lot more than just steals).

I'm not suggesting that Bayless is a long-term answer at SG, but he's submitting a good audition.  I like the fact that he's a little taller and more bulky than Bradley.  And I'm feeling confident in watching Bayless finishing in transition, whereas I've seen Bradley rushing many drives to the hoop and failing to finish.

I completely understand how many people feel that Bradley is a gem, especially since he has ramped up his offense to go along with his defense.  And he's certainly worth a good paycheck, whether it's with the Celtics or another team.  I'm just not seeing him as a primary shooting guard on a championship team—and physicality is the biggest reason (especially lack of height and the possibility of waning athleticism).

I do hope he can return soon, because I'd like to see him and Rondo actually get together in a partnership that could potentially make both of them better.

Sam

The situation is very fluid.

No one can know nor project who stays and who goes.  I think the upcoming draft will impact what happens in the off season.  I think we have a roster with several bubble player including Vitor, CJ, and Pressey.  Everyone seems to agree that we would not mind seeing Humphrey return at the right price.  The major offseason issue however is Avery Bradley.  

The biggest problem with Avery is that he still wants to play and does play even when he is injured.  If you recall he kept getting the shoulder popped back into place before he finally could no longer handle the pain and the ankle sprain became more severe because he was allowed to come back too soon.

But none of the injuries are career threatening and Avery is till a young pup.  

I think AB can be a # 2 or 3 scorer depending on the style of play.  It took Rondo 7+ years to discover that jump shots at this level for a PG is a requirement.  Avery is already there and I would wager that his offensive production has NOT peaked.

Sam made another interested observation.  One that I have also thought about but did not mention.  AB's defensive showing has come down a notch.  AB is not just athletic but he is smart and persistent but the level of defense that he was playing where he was getting into everyone and the amount of energy expended is perhaps beyond anyone's ability.  If we want AB to score the basketball at a higher level his defensive contribution may be less.  Nevertheless he remain a superior defensive player and like everyone on the team, could benefit from a rim protector.

Which brings me into agreement with Sam's reflection on getting a rim protector. Fact is that until that critical position is filled the Celtics will never be able to realize there potential or establish a winning style of play.

My last comment is that a couple of additions to the team to strengthen the middle and add more punch on offense will go a long way to changing the fortunes of this ball club.

dboss

kdp59 wrote:
we obviously differ in our opinions on Bradley.

I don't see him as ever being a consistent go-to scorer in the NBA or even a number two option, on a good team. I could be wrong of course.

his constant injury problems would scare me off at anything approaching $8M per year.

But Ainge DID offer him a bit over $7M I believe, so he must value Bradley close to where you do.

Avery Bradley is not meant to be the "main guy." And I don't feel that responsibility would even be necessary. He can score into the teens and occasionally into the 20s and provide solid defense, and at times great defense. Group that with a fully-rehabilitated Rondo, Green, Sullinger, and a true center. That would make for a very intriguing team with some other peripheral pieces like Bayless, Olynyk, and whoever else the Celtics can pick up via trades or free agency.

Let's take Jeff Green for example. Overall, he's playing better with Rondo than without him. Rondo's presence on the court would have the same effect on Bradley. Sure, Bradley has deficiencies to his game, but having a major player like Rondo around can help to compensate for that.

I'm trying my best to analyze Bradley's value without that analysis being in a vacuum. Bradley's been playing some of his best basketball this year, and he can certainly be a viable piece moving forward (provided this team can avoid major injuries to key players).



KJ

Fortunately we and Danny have a good month + to watch Avery play alongside Rajon to determine AB's true value to this team. Of course if AB is a necessary chip in making a trade for a decent center, we trade him. Otherwise I hope he ends the year in spectacular fashion AND we get the center we need. Cow, I'm basically with you on these matters.

k_j_88 wrote:
Let's take Jeff Green for example. Overall, he's playing better with Rondo than without him. Rondo's presence on the court would have the same effect on Bradley. Sure, Bradley has
deficiencies to his game, but having a major player like Rondo around can help to compensate for that.

Totally agree.  Jeff Green is averaging 20 PPG over the last 20 games (most with Rondo), and any true evaluation of AB has to come over the next few weeks with him playing alongside Rajon.

I guess I dont see an erosion of athleticism that Sam speaks of.  AB might be pacing himself a bit more, but he makes more specular steals and blocks on D than any 2 guard in the NBA IMO.

Unless he wants something outside of what is reasonable, I see him here over the long haul.

Erosion or pacing, it all boils down to less fanatical guarding than he exhibited a couple of years ago when he made his defensive reputation.

It doesn't mean he's not a good defensive player, because he obviously is.  I'm jut maintaining that it's dangerous to rely on a skill that depends so much on athleticism when he may already have started pacing himself.  Perhaps he'll reverse that trend, but I believe that's a long shot because that's not the normal trajectory of a player's athleticism over time.  Couple that with his lack of height for a SG and his recent susceptibility to lower body injuries, and it's questionable as to how long he can be an elite defender who depends primarily on his athleticism.  And I still maintain that most of Avery's outstanding defensive damage is done between mid-court and the three-point arc.  I believe that, in the halfcourt game, his lack of height makes him no better than an above-average defender at best.  I also believe he's never been particularly effective at guarding opponents on the baseline.


Avery may make more spectacular steals than any other two-guard in the league, but I couldn't care less about "spectacular."  And, this season, Avery ranks only third among shooting guards on his own team in terms of number of steals per minute.  You may not think that "pacing himself" represents a dropoff in his defensive effectiveness.  But his steals per minute for last year versus this year have plummeted from 1.6 to 1.2 (a 25% decline).

I know you believe I hate Avery, but that's not at all true.  I greatly respect the talents he represents, and especially all the practice that must have been responsible for his improved shooting.  I'm just trying to be practical in my assessment of his value over time.

Sam

Just going with a quick answer to the question posed in the title of this thread...

Not very good.

There is almost certain to be a good amount of change, which is most probably the whole idea.

I think the only must have "keeper" on the roster is Rondo, and even that will depend on the team's feel for what it will take to sign his next contract.

I haven't chimed in here yet so here I go:

Assuming minimal change, I'd expect only small improvements.

On the plus side:

1.  We'd have Rondo more fully back from his surgery.

2.  We'd have Kelly with a whole year under his belt.  Considering the strides he has made in the past month, that could be quite a bit.  Even if he just plays like he has the past month but do it more consistently next year that will make a difference.

3.  Our coaching staff will be more experienced.  That, also, could be big.


On the minus side:

1.  Still no reliable rim protector.  Embiid is missing a lot of games due to back problems.  Could he conceivably drop to us like Sully did (he wouldn't have to drop anywhere near as far)?  Noah Vonleh?  Cauley-Stein?  Regardless, they're young rookies and will NOT be ready for NBA Prime Time and therefore will not be difference-makers next year.

2.  Bradley?  Assuming he's here (ergo "minimal change"), will he stay healthy?

3.  Back up point guard (it's not looking like Pressey's cutting it) and Bayless is really more of a two.  If we use Brooklyn's pick for a backup PG, then we're still in rookie hell.



Our biggest weaknesses are that we're short and lack beef, other than Sully and Vitor (who doesn't use it).  Barring a bunch of bodies moving I don't see us fixing that enough to see big change next year.  Marginally better?  Absolutely.  I'm guessing we're going to win 28-30 games this year.  I could see us getting up to 32-35 next year without big change, just because of the improvements in Rondo and Kelly and Brad and team chemistry.  40 wins?  Nope, don't see it.  To do that we will need a rim protector or, at the very minimum, an honest to God BIG man, a real center and not a converted PF.


bob



.

Assuming incremental changes to the roster, I'd expect incremental changes to the team's success.

sam wrote:Erosion or pacing, it all boils down to less fanatical guarding than he exhibited a couple of years ago when he made his defensive reputation.

It doesn't mean he's not a good defensive player, because he obviously is.  I'm jut maintaining that it's dangerous to rely on a skill that depends so much on athleticism when he may already have started pacing himself.  Perhaps he'll reverse that trend, but I believe that's a long shot because that's not the normal trajectory of a player's athleticism over time.  Couple that with his lack of height for a SG and his recent susceptibility to lower body injuries, and it's questionable as to how long he can be an elite defender who depends primarily on his athleticism.  And I still maintain that most of Avery's outstanding defensive damage is done between mid-court and the three-point arc.  I believe that, in the halfcourt game, his lack of height makes him no better than an above-average defender at best.  I also believe he's never been particularly effective at guarding opponents on the baseline.

Bradley has been asked to carry more of the offensive load - so he has had to divert some of his attention and energy from the defensive end to the offensive one.  Expecting someone to be a lock down defender on every possession AND chip in 15 to 20 ppg is a lot to ask.  AB has changed his methods to match what is being asked of him - and his offense has grown by leaps and bounds this season (shooting higher % from the field, higher % from 3pt land, scoring nearly 6 ppg more, rebounding more) and most of his scoring relies on his quickness and athleticism.

I see it much less as a slip of his athleticism - and more of a SHIFT of the focus of the use of his athleticism.  If he were a part of a team with a designated #1 scorer or even a #1 and #2 scorer - he would be able to instantly revert more energy back to the defensive end, and continue to lock down his man - especially at the end of games, while still scoring 12 to 15 ppg.

I believe that, in the halfcourt game, his lack of height makes him no better than an above-average defender at best. 

Not sure how you can say this Sam, when quite often, due to AB harassing the PG - the team has 14 or less seconds on the shot clock.  This alone makes defending in the half court easier for the entire team - not just AB.

sam wrote:
Avery may make more spectacular steals than any other two-guard in the league, but I couldn't care less about "spectacular."  And, this season, Avery ranks only third among shooting guards on his own team in terms of number of steals per minute.  You may not think that "pacing himself" represents a dropoff in his defensive effectiveness.  But his steals per minute for last year versus this year have plummeted from 1.6 to 1.2 (a 25% decline).

Spectacular as in - he is the best athlete at his position in the NBA....which is my point.  If you try to calculate the downward trajectory of an athletes skills - you have to first acknowledge where on the chart that player is starting from and in Bradley's case, he is nearly off the chart.  If he loses 10% of his athleticism per year - in 5 years he will still be better than all but the elite SG in the NBA.

As for being down 25% in steals per minute - as I said above, he is being asked to contribute more on the offensive end - where he is hitting the mark with great success - and his scoring is up 55% (9.2 to 14.3) and rebounding is up 90% (1.6 to 3.1) - by any measure he is having the best year of his career.  By far.

He is having this break out year in a contract year, which is good for AB and potentially bad for the Celtics.  But if the Celtics decided to not tender a legitimate offer to Avery Bradley - the list of suitors in the NBA will be long and exhaustive.

Look at the last game he had covering Harden, was shocked how well he defended the top 2 in the league, he always defends Dwayne Wade well, Kobe's peak is close to being done, he doesn't have ideal size, but combined with his defensive ability and tenacity, theres no match up that hes overwhelmed. Points with elite quickness might give him more trouble with their first step, but hes still a premier defender, hes a really tough kid. There might be less games where he puts on a defensive stone wall all game long, but his overall game has made a significant jump.

I'd have to agree with mrkleen's points about Bradley.

Bradley, when healthy, has an incredible motor. He will give pretty much every other guard in the league huge problems and him pacing himself makes sense, seems more like maturity to me. Bradley's 23 years old, so I hardly believe there should be any questions about his athleticism just yet. He'll probably start slowing down several years down the road but he'll still be formidable.

Again, his only problem is that he doesn't have a center to impose their will in the paint.



KJ