Assuming Minimal Changes, How Good Could This Team Be Next Year?

No improvement what-so-ever in their record.

swish

Mrkleen,

When I say I'm concerned about a possible dropoff in Avery's defensive prowess, you say he's now concentrating more on offense.  Does that excuse mean I'm wrong in being concerned about a possible dropoff in his defensive prowess?

If there's a chance that  his defense is likely to wane over time because he's "pacing" himself defensively, does that excuse mean I'm wrong in being concerned about a possible dropoff in his defensive prowess.

Going back to where Rondo started in projecting into the future is not a mandate.  In fact, I find there's usually a one to two seasons in the ability of fans to detect changes in players' abilities because (1) such changes usually happen gradually, not overnight, and (people are reluctant to recognize that there's an actual decline.  (It's like watching a baby grow.  If you see the baby every day, your perception of growth has less impact than as if you saw the baby only every six months.)  I believe many fans still conceive of Avery's defensive competence as of two years ago but selectively measure his offensive competence as of this season.  I don't agree that he has anything like the same kamikaze defensive style as two seasons ago; and by making the excuse that he's "pacing" himself, you're implicitly agreeing with my premise.

I guess you're assuming that Avery should defend only point guards, admitting that taller shooting guards offer a challenge to him.  If that's true (and I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with that premise), it weakens the Celtics because it matches an even shorter guy (Rondo) defensively with taller shooting guards.

On the subject of Rondo, he's an interesting parallel for Avery.  Earlier in his career, he played defense like a lightning bolt and won defensive awards.  Doc even had Rondo defending Lejerk from to time.  None of that is as true during more recent years, although he's certainly no defensive bum.  His defensive output has declined—not precipitously but to a palpable degree.  Perhaps it's because he's "pacing" himself for offense or being more careful about avoiding injuries or whatever the reasons might be.  So your solution to that problem would be to assign Rondo to defend a taller shooting guard while Avery guards the opposing point guard?  All I can say is that you're entitled to your opinion.

You say, Avery "is having this break out year in a contract year, which is good for AB and potentially bad for the Celtics.  But if the Celtics decided to not tender a legitimate offer to Avery Bradley - the list of suitors in the NBA will be long and exhaustive.  Please provide data to support that as anything but an unfounded personal opinion.

Avery's stats (per 36 minutes) would support your theory that he's pacing himself in other aspects of the game in order to focus more on offense:

OFFENSIVE STATS:

Points: '12'13: 11.6 / '13-'14 16.9

FG %: '12'13: 40.2% / '13'14: 43.4% 

And they support my theory that, whatever the dynamic that's involved, aspects of Avery's game other than offense have declined:

DEFENSIVE STATS:

Steals: '12/13: 2.6 / '13-'14: 1.6

Blocks (since you mentioned them as being relevant for a SG): '12-'13: 0.4 / '13'-'14: 0.2

So, it seems Avery has improved in heretofore secondary skills while slipping in heretofore trademark defensive skills.  You may call it a "breakout year," and the offensive gains are nice.  But gains in one area at the expense of a previously trademark area doesn't spell more than a minimal "breakout" to me, especially since one of the offensive "improvements" was still a relatively low 43% field goal percentage, meaning, as the second most prolific Celtics shooter, he leaves 7.7 shots per game as fair game for opposition transition opportunities.  So at what cost (in terms of clangers) has he averaged exactly 14.3 points per game (below your exaggerated claim of 15-20 points per game) this season?

Sam

I think it is unrealistic to expect players to improve dramatically in one area (going from 11.6 to 16.9 ppg is 46% increase which is dramatic by any measure) and not lose a bit in another. 

On a good team - someone like AB (or Tony Allen / Bruce Bowen / Shane Battier) can devote more of their energy to focusing on one thing - and be that team's lock down defender - expending  much of his energy to accomplish that.

The Celtics are a poor team that is searching for its identity and Bradley was clearly tasked with taking on more of the scoring load this year.  So by any definition he was asked to change his game and add more on the offensive end.  Which is exactly what he did. Now you, want to look at his slight declines in defensive stats - and call them out as proof that the guy is slipping?

BTW..not sure where you are getting your stats but AB did not average 2.6 steals per game last year, it was 1.3

I am very surprised to hear you questioning Bradley's value around the league.  I cant think of any player on this team with the exception of Rondo, that other GMs would want to add more than AB.  But you are right, only time will tell who is right on that one.

I dont see any way of either of us convincing the other to change our minds - so I am going to leave this aside for now.

Mrkleen,

Sorry about the typo.  It wasn't 1.3, it was 1.6.  As I stated, throughout most of my post, used the per 36 minutes data because they aren't biased by different numbers of minutes per game in different years.

I've never once mentioned Bradley's value around the league.  I believe he has value around the league.  He could fetch something pretty good or, in combination with the right teammate, he could fetch something great.  But I'm not assuming they're going to trade him either; in fact, the odds are probably that they won't.

I realize the stats I posted don't indicate a sharp decline.  I never said they were proof that the guy is slipping. Coupled with what I believe is reasonable logic, they directionally represent, to me, a potential warning signal for the future.

I've never heard or seen any proof that it's unrealistic to expect a player to grow in one area at the expense of another area.  It can certainly happen, but it's of concern to me when the area being compromised is the strong suit of the player.

I'll join you in leaving this side now.  I don't feel strongly enough about the topic or my opinion in the debate for it to be of much consequence.  It will be interesting to see what the future brings for Avery.

My best to Erin.  The weeks are flying by, huh?

Sam

Yes sir....less than 2 months to go now.  Nursery is shaping up and we have her bag packed just in case.

Thanks for your well wishes Sam - and as always, disagreeing without being disagreeable

Regardless of whether Avery is improving on O while declining on D, he is not playing because of injury, and THAT should be the focus of concern. Are these past four years of his career anomalies or the true indication of his durability? That should be the overriding question.

mrkleen09 wrote:Yes sir....less than 2 months to go now.  Nursery is shaping up and we have her bag packed just in case.

Thanks for your well wishes Sam - and as always, disagreeing without being disagreeable

Kleen,

That's great to hear.

I hope Erin is feeling good.

Best to you both as you start your new family.

Regards

mrkleen09 wrote:Yes sir....less than 2 months to go now.  Nursery is shaping up and we have her bag packed just in case.

Thanks for your well wishes Sam - and as always, disagreeing without being disagreeable

This board is a limitless source of good news.

You will, OF COURSE, keep us fully up-to-date.

In the meanwhile, here's happy thoughts coming your way from sunny California, Land of Fruits and Nuts and the occasional east-coast pitbull.


bob


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Paul, best of luck to you and Erin as you start your family. There is a seemingly endless supply of books on raising kids, but you'll figure it out with or without them.

Bob, I was in the Bay Area this past weekend. Had a couple of Anchor Steams with friends and raised a glass in your general direction.

Thanks Gents for all the love and kind wishes.  Win or lose its the good people here that make visiting such a joy.

Updates soon and pictures as soon as I have a few.  Go Celtics.

Outside wrote:Paul, best of luck to you and Erin as you start your family. There is a seemingly endless supply of books on raising kids, but you'll figure it out with or without them.

Bob, I was in the Bay Area this past weekend. Had a couple of Anchor Steams with friends and raised a glass in your general direction.

outside,

Lucky you. I was still freezing my stones off in winter wonderland. I hoisted a Brooklyn Lager in the general direction of the sunshine and 70 degree weather.


bob


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