The Value Of Jeff Green

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/10/2/6864255/the-value-of-jeff-green




The value of Jeff Green
By Sean Penney  @spenney83 on Oct 2 2014, 8:48a 12




Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sport
Assessing Jeff Green's value to the Celtics and what his ideal role should be.




Jeff Green has had a bit of a raw deal since coming to Boston. After two and a half seasons with the Celtics (excluding a season lost to heart surgery), Green has yet to endear himself to many Celtics fans who remain disappointed with his production. This is hardly Green's fault. In part because expectations were perhaps set a bit too high after the team traded away fan-favorite Kendrick Perkins to acquire him mid-season in 2011 - a trade many fans still blame as the reason the Celtics fell short of their championship goal that season. However, the main issue for Green is that he's being asked to be something he's not - The Man.

Green led the Celtics in scoring last season with a career high 16.9 points per game. Only two teams in the league had a leading scorer that averaged less points per game than Green and one of them - the Detroit Pistons - had two other players trailing their leading scorer that still averaged over 15.0 points per game. Boston's second leading scorer last year was Avery Bradley, at 14.9 points per game.

The increase in scoring coincided with a career high Usage Percentage (23.6), as the team shifted more responsibility to Green. In the wake of a roster shake-up that sent Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn, with Rajon Rondo still working his way back from ACL surgery, the keys to the offense were handed to Green. He was asked to become the primary scoring threat for a team that lacked any other options to carry the load. As his scoring total went up, his efficiency went down. His field goal percentage plummeted over 50 points to a career low 41.2%, while his True Shooting Percentage of .520 dropped to the lowest it had been since his rookie season. His 13.1 PER ranked outside the top 200 in the league and his 3.7 Estimated Wins Added was 126th. None of this would suggest that Green should be the primary option for any team's offense.

Yet that's where the Celtics find themselves with Green. Even when Rondo returns to full health later this season, he's still a pass-first point guard who ideally won't be leading the team in scoring. Unless one of the team's younger players makes a significant leap this season, the role of primary scorer will once again fall to Green. The problem with that is it's not who he is. Green is a solid role player on a team full of role players.

Green is at his best when he can be utilized as more of a second tier option on offense. In his time with the Oklahoma City Thunder he had Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook drawing the bulk of the attention from opposing defenses, which allowed him to pick his spots. When he came to Boston he had the Big Three and Rondo. Last year was the first time he was expected to become the main scoring threat for his team and he predictably struggled to adjust to that new role.

Last season also represented the most time he has spent at the small forward position. He's alternated between both forward spots his entire career, but he spent a career high 74% of his minutes at SF last season. As a 21-year old rookie he spent just over half his time at the position, but during his remaining time with the Thunder he never spent more than 22% of his time there. While he has struggled at times to defend bulkier power forwards, he is able to take advantage of his quickness to exploit many of those match ups on offense. He loses that advantage when being guarded by a wing player, which may be another factor in his decline in efficiency. Given the depth the Celtics have at power forward, Green is expected to once again get the bulk of his minutes on the wing this season.





Green is a good player that can be very useful when used correctly. He's an athletic player that can attack the basket with force and is dangerous in the open court. He's an above average outside shooter, especially from the corner, where he's shot just under 40% in his career.

What he's not is a primary scorer, which is what he's been forced to try to become due to the Celtics not having any other reasonable options. He certainly had his moments last year, such as his buzzer-beater corner three to beat the Heat last November or a pair of 39-point outbursts against Washington and then New Orleans. He's capable of showing flashes of brilliance where he has the appearance of being a star player, but he's never been able to put it together consistently. That's what you would expect from a solid role player, but to be The Man, you have to bring it on a regular basis.

This is why Green would be more valuable to another team. One where he doesn't have to be the primary scoring option. Green could thrive in that type of role, but unless the Celtics can cash in their chips to acquire a star player, he won't get that chance in Boston before his contract expires. He's entering the final year of his deal (assuming he declines his $9.4 million Player Option to look for more long term security), which could make him enticing to teams looking to add the missing piece to a contender without committing long term to the player.

The Celtics are at a crossroads with Green. They can try to build up his value in the short term with an eye on dealing him at the trade deadline for more assets (Danny Ainge can seemingly never get enough of those), but if he continues to be inefficient as a miscast scorer, he isn't likely to hold much trade value. Or they can continue to fit Green into Brad Stevens' system with the intent to sign him to an extension. If Boston does land a star player in the near future, Green could become a great fit once he can get back to his comfort zone. The risk with that path is they may lock themselves into a deal with Green, yet come up empty in finding a leading scorer to take that burden from him. Add that to the potential loss of Rondo (whether it come by trade or free agency) and this offense could remain ugly for the foreseeable future.




bob
MY NOTE:  I'm not sure I'm ready to say that Jeff Green CANNOT be a primary scorer.  He has all the skills and tools to be that and, Lord Knows, we've seen him do it.  What he needs, as we all know and agree by now, is consistency.  He just can't disappear for a week or two.  He's not Paul Pierce, who would score 20 points almost every game like Swiss clockwork, but Jeff Green could easily up his scoring average from 16.9 up to 18.9 or 19.9 just by just not disappearing for half the nights he does that.  Easier said than done, I guess, but that's all it would take.  He doesn't need to be taller, slyer, quicker or relearn his shooting mechanics or his free throws like Rondo has had to do.  He just needs ganas, all the time.  Maybe, hopefully, this new Jeff Green, the one who is becoming James Young's big brother and mentor, will feel the moral weight to show Young how to play every single night.  In a strange way, the drafting of "not-quite-ready-for-prime-time" James Young might be the best thing that ever happened to Jeff Green's career.  It's a new year and Jeff Green gets to start afresh just like everybody else.


.

Unfortunately, Jeff could be the Celtics who suffers most during the games Rondo misses. A good floor general takes note of teammates who are struggling in one way or another on offense, and he orchestrates measures to cater to the strugglers' strengths.  I wish Rondo could be present to help Jeff capitalize on what seems to be his newfound resolve.

Sam

if always said Green doesn't have that....call it what you want" drive, killer instinct, I'm the best and I KNOW it" kind of attitude.

he never has, even when I watched him play in Georgetown.

he's at BEST a scottie Pippen type player.

#2 IF you have super man (he'd be GREAT playing with LeBron).


nothing against him, he's a good NBA player and sounds like a niec guy to boot. We are what we are though.

I feel sorry for him that he gets a lousy rap from most fans, who want hom to have KG's or Pierces' drive...never gonna happen folks.

Why don't we wait and see (1) what Brad will expect of Jeff this season and (2) whether Jeff can fulfill those expectations.  Many player have filled necessary roles on their teams without having a killer instinct.  It's all about the team and how well Jeff meets the needs of the team.  It's not about every player needing a killer instinct of a tape with a big red S to succeed.

Sam

The current state of the Celtics has very little to do with Jeff Green.

If people want to take out their frustration on the guy, fine. But their lord and savior, Paul Pierce - with his 25 ppg scoring average - captained teams that won 19, 24 and 25 games over the years. Clearly it took more than Paul Pierce and 10 additional points per game to turn things around.

The Celtics are young, unseasoned and have gaping holes at lots of positions on the court. Jeff Green may not be the solution, but he isnt the problem either.

The fact that people like to just blame Jeff Green for not being "The Man" is an absolutely pathetic display of scapegoating. He's a good player that can still become better. I agree with Sam that having extended time to play with Rondo will help Jeff immensely.

As has been stated, Jeff flourishes most when he's not the #1 option. If he's #2 or #3 he's quite dangerous, most likely a game changer.

The best thing that can be done is to bring in a top flight scorer.


KJ

I think the author is correct about Jeff not being the guy.

It has nothing to do with drive or killer instinct.  It actually has to do with skills.

Every go to wing player can handle the rock with either hand exceptionally well.  Jeff does not have that handle to replicate 20+ per game performances as a rule of thumb.  However he is a good defender, fits perfectly into a PACE type of game and could be better utilized if some plays are designed for him closer to the free throw line.  I also think that he can improve on the defensive end and on the glass.

If the Celtics have no real intensions to run the ball then keeping Jeff may not be a good decision.

dboss

bobheckler wrote:
...Green is at his best when he can be utilized as more of a second tier option on offense. In his time with the Oklahoma City Thunder he had Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook drawing the bulk of the attention from opposing defenses, which allowed him to pick his spots. When he came to Boston he had the Big Three and Rondo. Last year was the first time he was expected to become the main scoring threat for his team and he predictably struggled to adjust to that new role…

...This is why Green would be more valuable to another team. One where he doesn't have to be the primary scoring option. Green could thrive in that type of role, but unless the Celtics can cash in their chips to acquire a star player, he won't get that chance in Boston before his contract expires. He's entering the final year of his deal (assuming he declines his $9.4 million Player Option to look for more long term security), which could make him enticing to teams looking to add the missing piece to a contender without committing long term to the player...

...The Celtics are at a crossroads with Green. They can try to build up his value in the short term with an eye on dealing him at the trade deadline for more assets (Danny Ainge can seemingly never get enough of those), but if he continues to be inefficient as a miscast scorer, he isn't likely to hold much trade value. Or they can continue to fit Green into Brad Stevens' system with the intent to sign him to an extension. If Boston does land a star player in the near future, Green could become a great fit once he can get back to his comfort zone. The risk with that path is they may lock themselves into a deal with Green, yet come up empty in finding a leading scorer to take that burden from him. Add that to the potential loss of Rondo (whether it come by trade or free agency) and this offense could remain ugly for the foreseeable future...[/i]

Yet another reason Green needs to depart, in my opinion.  The economics of the situation.

Green appears to be a second tier guy.  OK, I'll buy that.  But with his soon to expire contract, a probable max deal to sign Rondo, and the need to open the wallet to fill a whole lot of weaknesses, re-upping Green will be at too high a price tag to pay for what he brings.

He's an at least average or better player as a 3 or 4, caught in a situation that for many reasons is increasingly looking like a bad fit.

The problem with Jeff Green,  the problem for the Celtics keeping Jeff Green, and the problems for Jeff Greens teammates playing with Jeff Green is.................

HE IS TOOOOOOOOOO INCONSISTENT!

You never know what he will do on a given night which makes it harder for the coach and the players on the floor to play with him.

Take Paul Pierce.............you know Paul will get you rebounds and score 22 pts +.  If he has an off night....he still good for 17 pts ...rebounds and putting the other team in foul trouble by driving to the hoop and picking up his scoring through the foul line.   One of the BEST at doing so may I add.

Does Jeff come out and score 35 - 40 pts tonight, rebound and have a superstar night....................only to score 7 pts shooting 30%,  3 rebounds, and be in foul trouble the next night.

How can the team gel and have any sort of cohesiveness when you are not sure what to expect from him.

Love Jeff Green the person..............only wish he can become more predictable and consistent.

However at his age and experience....perhaps you cannot teach old dogs new tricks!

112288

112288,

(1) Jeff Green IS NOT too inconsistent.  He hasn't even played a game this season.  Jeff Green HAS BEEN too inconsistent.  Then is not now.

(2) Last year, a lot of what Brad did involved a tentative feeling-out process, which was exacerbated by the absence of his lead floor general for much of the season.  The offense frequently resembled what you'd see in a sixth grade schoolyard.  Guys were playing out of position.  One-fifth of the five positions had virtually no qualified representative, and another one-fifth was missing a team leader for much of the season.  Hardly an ideal setting for someone widely anointed the "go to" guy on offense by many pseudo-experts.  

(3) This year, Brad is more on top of things from the getgo, and he's obviously being more assertive from the outset.  The 2014-15 season should find Brad carving out a more definitive niche designed to help Jeff make the most of his talents within the context of improved team chemistry

(4) Last season, the Celtics had very little offensive punch.  Their leading scorer's average in 82 games was only 15 points.  Let's see now. Who was that?  Why Jeff Green of course.  This season, they're far from supercharged.  But I believe additions such as Turner and Zeller (and perhaps even Thornton) will command more attention from opposing defenses and open things up better for Jeff.  And improvements in players such as Olynyk and Sullinger should accomplish the same thing.

(5) The lack of a floor general for half the season and the presence of a shadow of a floor general for the rest of the season placed a premium on players to create their own shots.  LAST YEAR'S CELTICS TEAM HAD FAR FEWER ASSISTS THAN IN ANY SEASON SINCE 2006-07.  (I multiplied  the 2011-12 total by 82/66 to adjust for the strike-shortened season.)  Creating his own shot is not a major strength of Jeff.  He's far more productive within a team effort that emphasizes enabling one another.  That's not a weakness; in fact, I abhor an emphasis on free lance offense.

(6) Jeff is already displaying a newfound zeal to improve in every single phase of the game.  He's being more assertive as witness his taking James Young under his wing.  He has as much of a chip on his shoulder as it's possible for a gentleman like Jeff to possess.

Isn't it possible that, if we—you know—actually WATCH a game or 82 and see what Jeff is really like under more promising circumstances, we might actually get a pleasant surprise?

I'm old.  Perhaps I have a right to live in the past.  Why am I so often the one discouraging that practice?

Sam

Sam,

The past I am afraid will be the present with Jeff Green.

112288

We should know reasonably soon what Jeff will bring to the table this season, even with the setback involving Rondo

But what I really want to know is how NYCelt's kid Mike did against USC?



beat

beat wrote:We should know reasonably soon what Jeff will bring to the table this season, even with the setback involving Rondo

But what I really want to know is how NYCelt's kid Mike did against USC?



beat

Beat,

We took USC (aka the Irondequoit Vikings) 24-6 last Sunday.

Mike is holding up a fumble he just recovered, and the story behind the pic is a reminder to me that I don't know everything.

We were tied up at 6 all, late in the first half.  My defensive coordinator had just switched Michael to middle linebacker and called in a blitz for him and the right side defensive end.  As I was explaining to the d-coordinator why I have Mike at weak-side versus middle, Michael rips through the gap.  He, the end, and the nose tackle get the tail-back just after the hand-off, strip the ball which shoots free, and Mike dives on it and recovers it.  The d-coordinator just turns, looks at me and smiles. We score three plays later and the momentum completely shifts as we dominate the rest of the game.

I may just know less every day…but sometimes that's OK too!

Regards

NYCelt wrote:Mike is holding up a fumble he just recovered, and the story behind the pic is a reminder to me that I don't know everything.

I'm glad you're celebrating that moment (not Michael's fumble recovery, but the context around it). Not everyone can enjoy life's ironies.

Outside wrote:

NYCelt wrote:Mike is holding up a fumble he just recovered, and the story behind the pic is a reminder to me that I don't know everything.

I'm glad you're celebrating that moment (not Michael's fumble recovery, but the context around it). Not everyone can enjoy life's ironies.

Outside,

I learned long ago, and the hard way, that we need to laugh at ourselves and the little twists that come our way.

On a great many days I can keep myself quite well entertained!

Regards

NYCelt,

Mike's got the celebration part down pat. How's his spike?

Sam

Sam,

I try to preach to him and the team to go the "act like you've been there before and plan to be back again soon" route. Of course, that's not always the way it goes.

Regards

NYCelt,

It's always refreshing to hear how you and Nancy so consistently enjoy Michael's exploits in and out of sports. He's obviously growing up the right way. Whatever that is.

Sam

112288,

I tried to present a list of logical reasons why I think Jeff could improve this season. What's your list of logical reasons for believing he won't?

Sam

Sam brought up an interesting point about a team-oriented offense versus one where you have a dominant ballhandler looking to take the shot.

We have, since Stevens' arrival, been discussing the motion offense he has been trying to establish. I don't believe that particular system is predicated purely on an isolation-style player. Jeff does not thrive in that position, and it would seem to me he has a better chance to thrive in a more team-based set, such as the one Stevens' wants to cultivate.

The good thing for Jeff is that he should have ample time to gain chemistry for Rondo. I'm confident Rondo will get Jeff many easy looks. Also, because Ainge has done well attempting to fill holes, everyone can play their natural positions. This will inevitably improve the chemistry on the floor.

Let's stop thinking of wing players like Jeff in the context of a Paul Pierce, Kevin Durant, Lebron James mold. That isn't necessarily what has to be the main focus. Instead, how do the 5 players on the floor coexist successfully?



KJ

KJ,

Jeff's the kind of player would should function better in a motion offense than in any other kind of offense I can think of. Unlike Lebron James, Jeff's mindset is not to dominate the ball and free lance a lot. Jeff's better in an offense dedicated to getting players open looks by sharing the ball in such a way as to present serious challenges to defenses.

That doesn't mean someone with the talent of a Lebron James would find it impossible to function in a motion offense if he adapted to the right basketball discipline. However, I believe Lebron's basketball instincts run more toward freelancing, whereas Jeff's do not.

Last year, the Celtics offense had virtually no consistent identity of any kind. Just injecting some discipline into the offense would be an improvement. If that discipline is centered around fast-breaking whenever possible, pushing the ball when a fast break is not possible, and running a motion offense much of the time in the halfcourt, it should play right into Jeff's strengths by manufacturing scoring opportunities that are in his wheelhouse and not forcing him to create his own shot.

I believe that basing expectations of Jeff on his past performance fails to take account of the fact that the context for Jeff's offense (to say nothing of his teammates' offense) could be changing dramatically in the direction of discipline, aggression and opportunism.

Sam

There was no one on this team last year who opposing teams were afraid would go off on them except Jeff. He was double and triple teamed during so many games it was crazy.

There is no doubt he has to find a way of breaking away from this defense that is played on him. This is where he will finally show what he can or cannot do. By February Danny will know whether it is worthwhile to keep him or trade him for a someone who will fill this role.

My hope is that he shuts all the naysayers up and shows what he is truly made of. Call me an idealistic fool if you must, but this is the way I see this issue.

I promise, no more Jeff Green posts until February!

Rosalie

So, Rosalie, are you in effect saying, "See me in February?" Understood.

Sam