The Case For Keeping Jeff Green

The case for keeping Jeff Green
By wjsy on Jan 9 2015, 9:13a +





Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
After Rajon Rondo's trade to the Mavericks, Jeff Green has become the latest target for armchair and real GM's as the Celtics enter a long rebuild. He's been the whipping boy whenever the team has struggled and the team has struggled a lot in the last two years, but keeping him might be Danny Ainge's best option.

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Admittedly, I'm a huge Jeff Green fan and I want him to stay in Boston.  I understand all the arguments for trading him.  The team is rebuilding.  Ainge needs to get whatever he can get no matter what.  Green creates a logjam for the development of the younger players.  He's wildly inconsistent.  His eFG% and usage rate are not analytically appealing.

I get all that and I might even agree with some of it (Forsberg does a pretty good job detailing Green's Celtics career), but I hope he stays.

Why would Danny keep him?  Consider what could happen if Green stays in green for not just the remainder of this year but also next.  He's publicly stated that he doesn't want to be traded, so presumably, he'd then be in favor of picking up his player option this summer and instead, cashing in as a free agent in 2016 when the salary cap is expected to increase substantially.  Now if that's the case, Ainge would retain Green's Bird rights and could have some leverage in a future sign-and-trade if he doesn't deem Green as a future Celtic.  That's really no different than what his value is today.

Some teams might be a little hesitant this year to trade for Green, worried that he might pick up his player option and affect their cap space next season if the short term rental doesn't work out and his value somehow diminishes (i.e. Evan Turner post-Indy).  The rumor is that Ainge is demanding a first round pick in return for Green, but there really isn't a market for swingmen right now.  Houston has already filled their holes by acquiring Corey Brewer and Josh Smith.  Teams like Memphis might not be desperate enough to give up a first rounder to upgrade that position whereas the Clippers, Pelicans, and Wizards just don't have the right assets to cobble together for a Green trade.  It's a gamble, but there could be more of a feeding frenzy in 2015-2016.

Some will argue that getting rid of Green before the February 19th trade deadline creates more immediate cap space, but for what?  With Rondo gone, is there a big time free agent that would conceivably sign in Boston this summer?  It seems highly unlikely.  The team will already have an influx of new talent with two first round picks in this summer's draft plus as many as three second rounders and as many as 11 returning players on the roster.  2016 is a more realistic year for a spending spree and Boston will have Gerald Wallace coming off the books then.

But I don't even like to talk like that because I want him back in Boston for not just next season, but moving forward.

On the court, he's the perfect fit in Brad Stevens' system.  All those preconceptions about whether he can be a go-to scorer or a good third or fourth option can be thrown out the window when you talk about Green under Stevens.  Yes, he's "slumped" since Rondo's departure.  Everybody has.  It's shell shock.  The roster is now bloated with redundancies and nobody is immune to a little inconsistency as the team tries to figure things out.

But if you look at what makes the prototypical player in the motion offense, it's Green's combination of speed, size, and versatility.  He may not be as cerebral as Rondo, but his quick twitch skills are more suited for Stevens' system.  He'll never be the guy you can throw the ball in to to either get a clutch bucket or create for his teammates, but he'll never be asked to either.  Nobody is featured in the new Celtics offense or relied on too much on defense.  Fans have been on Green since he came to Boston for not being aggressive enough, but Green's complementary nature fits perfectly with his coach's team first attitude.  If he doesn't have it, he'll gladly pass it to the next man up, but we know that if there's the slightest crack in the defense, Green will attack the gap and finish.




FOR ALL OF JEFF GREEN'S INCONSISTENCIES, THE TEAM AND FRANCHISE HASN'T BEEN THAT CONSISTENT EITHER.

Cynics will say that that's the perfect no pressure, no expectation situation for the passive Green to play in.  Tankers would rather the Celtics lose and improve their lottery chances, so maybe Green is the perfect hapless veteran to lead this team through the minefield of moral victories and blow out losses.  I know it's January, but bah humbug to the haters.

Green is only 28-years-old.  I think he seems older because a lot fans have tried to pigeonhole him into a role and he's frustrated them time and time again by not performing up to their standards.  Frustration mounts quicker than joy so Jeff Green has become the annoying pebble in their collective shoes.  But let's just take a second to review Green's timeline with the C's.  He played admirably after getting traded to Boston in 2011, missed the entire following season with his heart surgery, played great down the stretch of that the Big Three swansong sans Rondo, and stumbled through last year when the team was in flux.  And with the Rondo trade three weeks ago, it's yet another year of inconsistency for Green.  Maybe I'm making excuses for him, but I give him the benefit of the doubt because the team hasn't exactly been consistent either.  I still don't think we've seen the best of him.

However, what has seemingly been consistent is Ainge's support for and faith in Green.  To the dismay of many, he gave Green a 4-year, $35M deal without ever seeing him play a game after his heart surgery.  And even yesterday, after Marc Stein reported a rumor that the Grizzlies were interested in trading for him, Ainge came to Green's defense:

"Jeff has been our best player this year and has had a fantastic year," said Ainge. "Last night, he didn't have a good game - he got in foul trouble early - but he hit two big shots to seal the victory down the stretch. He has been our most consistent scorer."

I'm with you, Danny.  That may be GM speak for "if anybody wants our best player, you're going to have to pay up," but the opportunity cost of keeping Green and potentially seeing him walk is much less than what Ainge might have lost had he let Rondo leave in free agency.  I genuinely believe that Green wants to stay with the Celtics, he'll pick up his option in July, we'll go through another round of trade rumors, and I'll be back here campaigning for him again.




bob



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* Consigned.

Bob,

I do not really dislike Green as some fans seem to do, but he is not going to be part of this rebuilding success so he is easily traded for some more pieces to look at now and another draft pick or two that can either be used as draft picks (depending upon where they land) or trades.

Green slipping backwards since Rondo has left makes him very trade-worthy before this trade deadline.

Keeping Jeff will make it easier to attract a high end free agent.  Trading him will probably result in overpaying for some average veteran talent.

The case for not trading him is therefore similiar to the Rondo situation.

My guess is that he will be traded as the Celtics continue on the rebuilding path.

The Celtics will not be willing to pay big bucks for a guy who will be playing on a team that is not  going to win in the near term.

It's business.  If you are going to be a loser anyways why spend the money.

We need to perhaps take back an expiring contract and a draft pick or 2 (maybe a 1st and 2nd rounder.

In any event I would not have an issue with either the Rondo trade or the possible Green trade if a starting center was coming back our way.  We got little for Rondo.  Ok so I know we like what Crowder has shown but let's face it.  Crowder is a rotation player and of course he looks good because anyone on the team that expends energy looks good.  Brandon Wright is nobody.  There is no need to prognosticate about developing him.  He has been in the league for 7 years.  There is no recognizable upsdie.  And Nelson is over the hill.  I am not mentioning the draft pick because DA is just as likely to trade that pick for a doggy bone.

The point that I am making is that we have not improved the roster with the Rondo trade and I hope we will not see a similar situation if Green gets traded.

It is a know fact that you cannot win with too many youngsters on the team which means that we would simply see a recycling of what has already occurred.  Trading those young pups and a draft pick or 2 to get a veteran or 2 to repalce the veterans or 2 that you traded in the first place.

What we need on this team is sustainability.  We need a formula that is more like the Spurs formula.  Their core is still together even though they went through 5+ years without winning a championship.  They remained competitive and very fun to watch.
They added pieces here and there around their core and made good choices with their draft picks.

Danny is using a slash and burn approach.  Good luck with that.

dboss (These topics prevent me from getting out of the lifeboat..I can feel the emotions start to rise up)

I would debate whether Jeff Green could be an effective part of the Celtics moving forward. The Jeff Green I saw before Rondo left was the Celtics' best scorer. On a team with a couple of outstanding scorers and a consistent motion offense, a third scoring option of Jeff Green would look pretty good to me.

I don't see the advantage of trading him before the February deadline. If they don't trade him and he walks (which seems to be a 40% proportion as I see it), it would behoove him to sign and be traded because he could make more money that way. And the Celtics could be quite demanding in what they'd trade him for.

At present, I believe we can forget about getting Mr. Intimidator, to say nothing of getting him in return for Jeff (even if Danny threw in a draft pick or two, which I wish he'd consider with every trade in order to get somebody of real value in return). In a sense, Danny's being put into a box because he's looking like easy pickin's to contending teams that want to shore up their wing scoring and are smart enough to know that any draft picks they trade away probably won't be high ones (and definitely won't be high ones if they protect themselves).

The only reason I'd consider letting Jeff go is if the frustration of losing keeps eating at him the way everyone knows it has—to the point where he suffers a dramatic backslide in confidence and/or zeal for the game. We now he's sensitive, and that's not necessarily a bad thing in general, but it can exacerbate small setbacks so they seem much larger.

But, even if Danny trades Jeff for nothing much except a draft pick, I'll be really bothered (and I won't be alone) but I'll still keep the faith that Danny somehow has a plan that's worth following.

Sam

dboss,

You forgot the hefty TPE that we got in the Rondo trade.  IMO, that is the best part, followed by the 1st round draft pick.  We will have a year to use the TPE.  Maybe the player brought in with it will improve the roster and maybe not.  It is too soon to tell.

The success or failure of a trade is best judged by the sum of all it's parts, and by giving it some time to develop when the best parts of the trade aren't realized until the future.

gyso

Sam

In the Nets game Jeff struggled to score but still came up with a great post up turnaround jumper and then a dramatic baseline drive for a dunk. There is defeintely pasion still there.

I'll keep faith in the good Lord...his name is not Danny.

dboss (Now the lifeboat is taking on water.....even a Celtics fan has a right to be happy!)

gyso wrote:dboss,

You forgot the hefty TPE that we got in the Rondo trade.  IMO, that is the best part, followed by the 1st round draft pick.  We will have a year to use the TPE.  Maybe the player brought in with it will improve the roster and maybe not.  It is too soon to tell.

The success or failure of a trade is best judged by the sum of all it's parts, and by giving it some time to develop when the best parts of the trade aren't realized until the future.

gyso

GYSO

You are correct amd I agree.

BUT...a big but If you take a historical 10 year look at all the wheeling and dealing of Mr danny Ainge including trades, free agent signings, draft picks and all the rest it looks like a freakin shell game.

He keeps hiding the f-----g pea

dboss

Jeff Green is going to be traded to Memphis for Taushan Prince and a pick.

Dboss, if he keeps hiding the pea, I have some Depends I can lend him. They're used, but they're cheap.

Sam

Sam

He would trade that too so you might want hold on a bit for a better fit.

Dboss

dboss wrote:Sam

He would trade that too so you might want hold on a bit for a better fit.

Dboss

Dboss,

Tell me, if it was you, you wouldn't trade one of Sam's used Depends for a draft pick...


bob



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There's no real reason to keep Jeff Green at this point, and not because I think he's a bad player. It's really because the Celtics are not doing anything to become better in the next 2-3 years. Jeff may as well play on a stronger team with a chance to play for something more meaningful than an agonizing rebuild.


KJ