Has Rondo turned himself into minimum salary player?

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Post by wide clyde Thu Apr 23, 2015 12:12 pm

Rondo's season has turned him into the biggest risk of probably any free agent in the history of NBA free agency.

The proverbial "wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole" really seems even a stretch at this point for any other team if they are
looking for players for next season.

With his team in playoff exit mode coupled with him not playing, how is he going to impress anyone between now and whenever?

From the Cs angle/point, I will expect Ainge to say good things about Rondo if asked, but please do not even think about ever
bringing him back to Boston.

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Post by Sam Thu Apr 23, 2015 9:54 pm

His entire situation is phenomenal.  There are few, if any, that have had similar symptoms.

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Post by 112288 Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:15 pm

I am sure Rondo is headed to LA & Show Time with Koby....remember the breakfast in Boston............there is no other answer.

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Post by Sloopjohnb Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:08 pm

Poor Rajon. For many years he was seriously underpaid. He just blew any chance of becoming overpaid.


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Post by tjmakz Fri Apr 24, 2015 1:58 pm

Rondo is going to have to play for a cheap one year contract next season.
If he plays like he used to, he will able to secure a nice payday starting with the 2016-17 season.
I could see the Lakers paying him $3m for one season.
If he is terrible or a malcontent, just waive him.
If the Lakers sign a free agent point guard or draft a point guard with their first pick, they probably won't have any interest in Rondo.
It's crazy that Dallas is basically walking away from him.
It's hard to have a ball dominating point guard who is a very poor shooter and has no confidence when driving to the basket.

Boston has done almost everything right over the last year or two.
If you look back at every trade they have made, you almost have to say that Boston has "won" every trade that they have been a part of.
That includes the Rondo trade to Dallas.


Last edited by tjmakz on Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Sam Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:14 pm

Very generous of you to give the Celtics that credit, TJ.  I can only respond that I can't wait until the next Caltics-Lakers championship series.

I'll bring the balloons.

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Post by atcross Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:12 pm

I haven’t posted here much but I feel someone needs to say this. Rondo is no longer a Celtic. As they say, that horse is dead. Get off.

I confess I’m a big Rondo fan. I think he’s the most entertaining player I’ve seen since Bird. In fact, if it weren’t for the fact that Stevens has done an amazing job of putting together an inspiring team from what most others wrote off as rebuilding cannon fodder, I might not be a Celtics fan now that Rondo is gone. I’ve never lived in Boston and the only reason I’ve been a Celtics fan is that I was born and raised in Indiana and I started watching the Cs when they got Bird. (I nearly quit watching during the Pitino era but Wyc and Danny saved the day.)  But I’m no x’s and o’s expert and I never played organized ball so my opinion is low level lay person at best. But I will say that I’ve watched nearly every single Celtics game every year for a number of years so I do have something of a perspective and I have a strong opinion about Rondo.

1. As Doc recently said, Danny had no choice but to trade Rondo. And it wasn’t about who Rondo was or his style of play. Once he became a free agent there was a very good chance that someone would offer him more than DA could afford to give him AND pay another couple stars to play with him. Had he been able to sign Love things might have been entirely different. I never saw anything to indicate that Stevens wouldn’t want Rondo or that Rondo wouldn’t play for Stevens. Quite the opposite. I think Stevens may be the ideal coach for Rondo. It’s a shame it worked out the way it did. But the reason it did was because of contracts and timing, not Rondo himself.

2. Carlisle may be the worst possible coach for Rondo. His well documented inclination to micro-manage his players, desire to call all the plays, and loudly criticize his players behind the scenes are all no-no’s with a player like Rondo. Cuban hired a great floor general and Carlisle wants nothing but players who do exactly what he tells them. Bad combo. I have followed the situation at Dallas since Rondo was traded and it was obvious that Rondo was trying very hard to be a good citizen. And I think Carlisle tried some too. But it was a bad combination. Say what you will about you’re supposed to do what the coach tells you but this is professional basketball and coaches don’t win games, talent does. And nobody can say Rondo isn’t a great talent. You don’t hire an expert and then tell him how to do his job.

3. Rondo is not a good shooter. Everyone knows that. He has freakishly large hands that allow him to do amazing things passing and handling the ball. But big hands and great shooting touch rarely mix. That’s why many of the great bigs don’t have perimeter games or high free throw shooting percentages. But if you put three good shooters on the floor with him he might win you a championship. And his shooting was actually slowly improving…until he went to Dallas. Carlisle wants five shooters on the floor so you don’t need a lot of plays, you just look to score or pass to another guy who looks to score. Keep it simple, stupid. He wanted Rondo to immediately transform himself to fit that mold in time for Dallas to make its run. That’s not a transformation that Rondo was likely to make in a few weeks, if ever. But Rondo tried damned hard (I watched) and it had the opposite result, as about any sports psychologist could have predicted.

4. Dallas needed a defender to guard the elite guards. Well the truth is, Dallas needed a defense, period. Rondo’s defense flourished in a team defense scheme where he had two bigs that he could guide his man into and force a pass or bad shot. Dallas has no team defense and only one good defender on the front line. In today’s NBA the rules favor the offense and you cannot stop a Curry or Hardin one on one. But that’s what Dallas was asking Rondo to do. And he tried. But it can’t be done. I watched the minutes Rondo was on the floor in his last game and he was clearly frustrated. He was trying to single-handedly stop a guy who draws fouls like pie draws flies and then listen to a coach barking plays to him from the sideline every time he touched the ball. There’s only so much humiliation a guy can take.

5. Much has been made of Rondo’s personality. Most of what is written is biased by the press’s dislike of people who dislike them. That and their need to write something, anything, to justify their existence. What we know is that Rondo, like Bird or Magic or Kobe or Lebron, has an intense desire to win. So he’s intense. It shows. Sometimes it boils over. Fault him if you will but that also produces a guy who will play with a dislocated elbow or torn ACL. But he’s not an extrovert like Magic so the press thinks he’s sullen and angry. And he doesn’t suffer fools lightly so when he does talk he tends to be flippant. Ask Bird or KG a stupid question or the same question over and over and see what you get. As for his team relationships, the only player that has indicated a dislike for him was Allen. Other players who could probably produce a long list of guys they didn’t like seemed to like him a lot. KG loves him. Pierce loves him. Perk loves him. Shaq loves him. Kobe wants badly to play with him. So does Melo. If he were the locker room poison some claim wouldn’t we hear about it from someone in the locker room? Would KG have put up with that? Here’s my theory on Allen: Rondo didn’t have a father after the age of seven and he has the type of personality that expects to deal with other males on a peer level. I have a similar background and personality. Don’t patronize me. Allen has a patronizing air to him. I think I read that his father was military so there was probably a very “I’m the dominant male so you should do as you’re told and respect my seniority” culture for him growing up. I think Rondo had a similar problem with Doc, who had a couple boys not much younger than Rondo. So Doc’s posture was I’m the coach/father figure and Rondo’s was I don’t need you to be either of those things. Over time I think Rondo came to respect Doc’s experience as a coach and player and how to use that experience in a collaboration, and Doc came to recognize that he was dealing with someone who was far smarter than any other player he had ever coached. And Rondo is not just basketball smart. He’s the kind of smart that probably held intelligent conversations with adults from the time he was ten. He’s the kind of smart that thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room because the odds are very high that he is, in fact, the smartest guy in the room. Your age or position means nothing to him. So the classic relationship of the kid and the coach is not an effective relationship for Rondo. That’s why Stevens would be a better fit (Stevens is probably a better fit for all coaches. They could learn much from him.) than Carlisle.

Bottom line is Rondo was asked to play a kind of offense that accentuated his flaws and suppressed his talents and play a kind of defense no one could. His game hadn’t fully recovered from injuries, a brand new coach and significantly different team in Boston, but it was showing signs. The fact that his game fell off a cliff when he went to Dallas is no accident. He was asked to do something he didn’t have the skill (shoot) or tools (team defenders) to do, while being denied the part of the game he loved (playmaking.) It was sort of heartbreaking to watch him try. (Side note: the Mavs were also without two key players in Parsons and Harris the first two games of the series with Houston, and Ellis is in a major funk as well. There isn’t an elite PG in the league that could win those games with just an aging Dirk. But somehow it’s all on Rondo.)

If Celtics fans must still talk about him after he’s gone I’d hope we’d try to appreciate him for who he really is and has done and not what some reporter reads into him to generate some copy. Or judge him on his play in an impossible situation. Rondo helped the Cs hang another banner and, in my humble opinion, has provided some of the most entertaining moments I’ve seen in a lifetime of watching hoops. If there were some scenario that would bring him back I for one would welcome it. But that’s not likely and he’s gone now so I think fans should move on.

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Post by Shamrock1000 Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:36 pm

Atcross - GREAT post. Best analysis of Rondo I have seen so far. Unlike the knee-jerk band-wagon retread pieces all the so-called professional writers have been pumping out, your analysis is fair and thoughtful. The perspective you provide is truly insightful - it said all the things I wish I were articulate enough to say. Well done.

Post more often....

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Post by cowens/oldschool Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:39 pm

tjmakz wrote:Rondo is going to have to play for a cheap one year contract next season.
If he plays like he used to, he will able to secure a nice payday starting with the 2016-17 season.
I could see the Lakers paying him $3m for one season.
If he is terrible or a malcontent, just waive him.
If the Lakers sign a free agent point guard or draft a point guard with their first pick, they probably won't have any interest in Rondo.
It's crazy that Dallas is basically walking away from him.
It's hard to have a ball dominating point guard who is a very poor shooter and has no confidence when driving to the basket.

Boston has done almost everything right over the last year or two.
If you look back at every trade they have made, you almost have to say that Boston has "won" every trade that they have been a part of.
That includes the Rondo trade to Dallas.


too bad they suck at drafting centers

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Post by Sam Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:46 pm

Atcross,

For a self-proclaimed "low level lay person," you certainly present your case very well. It could be argued that all of us on this board are "low level lay people" when compared to players and coaches—but I'm unconvinced of our subservience in comparison most media types...and I'm including you in that generality.


Although I might be more cynical than you about Rondo (despite the fact that he was my favorite Celtics player during his Boston tenure), I enjoyed your rationale and your logic.  I expect Rondo would be most appreciative to have you in his corner.


I hope we'll hear from you often.


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Post by gyso Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:04 pm

Rajon Rondo's game is suddenly outdated, and it could cost him millions in free agency

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rajon-rondos-game-suddenly-outdated-213900295.html

Finding an ideal team fit for Rajon Rondo will be hard this summer.After playing less than ten minutes in the Dallas Mavericks' Game 2 loss to the Houston Rockets, the Mavericks announced Rajon Rondo is out indefinitely with a back injury.

Asked whether he could see Rondo ever wearing a Mavs uniform again, Mavs coach Rick Carlisle stunningly said, "No, I don't."

The Rondo trade turned into a disaster for the Mavs. He didn't fit with the team's fast-paced, spread offense and he didn't jell with Carlisle, with the two fighting during and after a February game over play-calling duties.

That Rondo couldn't fit into one of the best offenses in the NBA — one that exemplifies much of what a modern NBA offense looks like — spells trouble for his future. As a free agent this summer, finding an ideal team fit for Rondo is difficult, simply because he plays differently than most successful point guards do in 2015.

Seeing Rondo in a "pace-and-space" offensive system wasn't encouraging for his future. What played out on the court with the Mavs is the same thing people worried about upon his arrival: Rondo needs to dominate the ball to run an offense, and when he doesn't have the ball, defenses don't respect him as a shooting threat.

NBA offense has evolved rapidly over the last three years. Just look at the 2011-12 Boston Celtics, which made it to the Eastern Conference Finals (stats via NBA.com/Stats):
•That year — that last year of the Garnett-Pierce-Allen era — the Celtics played at the 22nd slowest pace in the NBA, averaging 92.6 possessions per game. In 2014-15, that would be dead-last in the NBA.
•In 2011-12, 12 teams averaged over 20 three-pointers per game, with the Orlando Magic leading the league in attempts per game with 27. In 2014-15, 19 NBA teams took over 20 three-pointers per game, four of them averaging over 27 per game.
•In 2011-12, 22 teams averaged 24 or more shot attempts from midrange. In 2014-15, nine teams averaged 24 or more shot attempts from midrange.

In the span of three years, the NBA has realized that fast-paced offense with an abundance of three-pointers and shots at the rim is the most efficient way to score, while teams have begun to ignore less efficient midrange shots.

Enter Rondo. In 2011-12 he was an All-Star, averaging 12 points on 45% shooting, 24% from three, and 5 rebounds and 12 assists per game. He thrived for a Celtics team that played at the 22nd slowest pace, were third in the NBA in midrange attempts per game, and 24th in three-point attempts per game. For a championship contender, they pushed hard against emerging norms in offense, perhaps because they were elite defensively.

The Celtics also possessed three future Hall of Fame players in Pierce, Garnett, and Allen, all of whom were past their primes and willing to sacrifice on offense for the betterment of the team, thus handing Rondo the keys to the offense. And Rondo excelled, but it was in such a unique situation that it seems impossible to replicate in 2015.

Finding the 2014-15 equivalent of the 2011-12 Celtics is tough to do. Team that rank in the bottom third of the league in pace, bottom third in three-pointers attempted, and top third in midrange jumpers attempted simply don't have much success. Some teams that come close to those qualities: the Knicks, Lakers, Timberwolves, Bucks, Wizards, and Hornets, only one of whom finished above .500 this season. And none of them had three future Hall of Famers on their rosters.

So where does Rondo, a free agent for the first time on July 1, fit in the NBA?

Ball-dominant point guards aren't uncommon in the NBA, but Rondo's type of ball dominance just doesn't seem to fit.

Using the NBA's player-tracking data, we can see how often players touch the ball. In 2014-15, Rondo ranked 15th in touches per game. Yet, among the 14 other players , Rondo was was lowest in points per touch, scoring only .08 points per touch. In comparison, the leader of that top 15 was Russell Westbrook with .309 points per touch — more than triple Rondo's output.

So what was Rondo doing with the ball? He didn't average an exceptional number of drives per game — he was 28th in the NBA. He only averaged 3.2 points per game on drives.

While he was first in the NBA in passes per game, he was eighth in the NBA in assists per game. Rondo was seventh in points created by assists with 18.7 points per game on the season, but this was also a function of him dominating the ball. Though he can set up good shots for teammates, he doesn't necessarily promote good ball movement. The NBA tracks secondary assists — assists given to a teammate after they received a pass from a player — and Rondo was only 45th, meaning he didn't set teammates up to make good passes.

And if Rondo doesn't have the ball? He's a non-threat on offense. Here was his shot chart for the year:


(see link for shot chart)

According to NBA.com/Stats, Rondo shot just 34.6% on catch-and-shoot opportunities, but he shot a respectable 35.9% on three-pointers. The problem is, Rondo prefers to dominate the ball, and he only averaged 1.5 catch-and-shoot opportunities per game and 0.8 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game. Where there's the potential for Rondo to leverage a weakness into a skill, he hasn't adapted.

So as Rondo enters a fairly strong free agent class, where does he fit? It's not a matter of if a team will sign him — somebody will — but it's who. What team can use a ball-dominant point guard who can't shoot? Theoretically, a team would need three very good shooters to surround Rondo to make up for his lack of spacing, but they'd also need players who don't dominate the ball, either.

The Celtics provided this with Pierce, Allen, and Garnett, who were happy to catch and shoot, but again, that team didn't have a great offense — they had a great defense. The Mavericks provided the spacing around Rondo, but he and Monta Ellis, who also commands the ball, didn't fit well next to each other.

Rondo is as unique a player as the NBA has ever seen, and he's undoubtedly gifted in several areas. Unfortunately, the times he's proven most successful with were in a system that is now outdated.

A team will still take a chance on Rondo, but the days of thinking he's a max player are over. In another era, Rondo could skate by without being an elite shooter and dominate the ball while teammates waited patiently.

But in an NBA where teams emphasize ball movement, three-pointers, and space, Rondo doesn't seem to fit. Unfortunately for Rondo, after the breakup of the Big Three Celtics, the NBA passed him by.

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Post by cowens/oldschool Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:18 pm

I could actually see Rondo go the Knicks, Melo still needs someone to get him the ball, if they get a top big in the lottery, who knows? pairing him next to Monta Ellis wasn't near an ideal defensive backcourt.

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Post by Sloopjohnb Sat Apr 25, 2015 1:29 pm

Phil Jackson recently said that he plans to stay with the triangle. Can you imagine Rondo in a triangle offense?

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Post by Outside Sat Apr 25, 2015 2:59 pm

Sloopjohnb wrote:Phil Jackson recently said that he plans to stay with the triangle.   Can you imagine Rondo  in a triangle offense?
The triangle is a read-and-react motion offense that requires a lot of ball movement. When run well, most possessions have several passes. The point guard's primary responsibilities are to bring the ball up, make the initial pass, then be available as a perimeter shooter to space the floor. Rather than assists being concentrated with the point guard, they are spread around, and players other than the point guard usually lead the team in assists.

On Phil Jackson's Chicago teams, Pippen and Jordan usually led the team in assists, not their point guards. Same with the Lakers, where Kobe or Lamar Odom led the team in assists.

Jackson allowed Jordan and Kobe to dominate the ball, but that was because they were elite scorers. It's tough to imagine Rondo's style fitting with the triangle.
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Post by Sam Sat Apr 25, 2015 9:53 pm

A lot of good points on this thread.    Good, but disturbing in terms of future avenues open to Rajo.  First time I've ever hoped that an NBA player doesn't read the forum.  (Okay, okay, but somebody's making up the bunch of "guests" who always seem to be monitoring what we say.)

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