Reclamation projects, in FA and trade

We saw rookie coach Stevens turn Jordan Crawford's career and value around completely, so much so that we ended up trading him for basically two borderline first rounders.
Rookie Stevens also turned around the stock of Kris Humphries, who went on to sign a nice contract with Washington.
Courtney Lee also played much better under Rookie Stevens than he had under Doc, so much so that we unloaded his long term contract that at the time felt untradable.

This past year, we watched Stevens turn around the careers of Evan Turner and Tyler Zeller, and turned both into core starters of a playoff team.
And Isaiah Thomas is definitely worth more now than when we got him for basically a late first rounder.
Avery Bradley has had his two best seasons under Stevens, and Marcus Smart pretty much outperformed most expectations, especially defensively and as a shooter.

Stevens is great at turning careers around. He can do it again and again.
So who are some castoffs that Stevens can polish into something valuable, or even very valuable?
A few names come to mind, and please help me think of others:

1) Roy Hibbert. Played like a DPOY just a couple years ago, and is still a great defender, but his offense has slipped, as well as his confidence and consistency. Brad can turn him right around, put him in situations to succeed, and fill him with the confidence he needs to become a great steal for us on the free agent market.

2) Jeremy Lin. A lot like Evan Turner in that he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, but Lin has arguably shown a lot more promise than Turner has. Like Turner, Lin has found himself played in a style completely incompatible with his skills, for two different teams in two years.
Like with Turner, Stevens can put the ball in Lin's hands, and bring out the absolute best in him. Lin played for Harvard, so he would be coming back home in a way, and playing in front of a supportive crowd, with a supportive locker room environment. No Kobe's telling him he's soft as Charmin toilet paper, and no instructions to just stand in the corner on offense.

Now, where would Lin fit in on our crowded roster? Well, it's entirely possible that Lin would make a better starting option than Avery Bradley. Lin isn't the defender Bradley is, but he's a much better ball handler, passer, and is as good or better as a scorer than Bradley. Having a real point guard in the starting lineup would allow us to not start Evan Turner, and a Lin/Smart backcourt would give us two solid point guards who can both shoot the ball.
If we are able to really upgrade at SF, which is our biggest need in my opinion, the guy we get probably won't have the point forward skills of Turner. This increases the need for a legit starting point guard. Smart can do it, but he's 230 lbs, and simply can't blow by defenders like we need our point guard to do. He also leaves something to be desired as a ball handler, and has proven to be better defending shooting guards than point guards.

Lin could be a perfect steal off the scrap heap, and we probably wouldn't need to throw much money at him for a two or three year deal.

Who else can you think of that is being misused, or in a slump, who could be scrapheap targets for Brad the re-builder?

Rambone,

So, since Avery typically starts at SG, how would Lin replace him by starting at the "1" position?

Sam

Sam, Bradley generally guards opposing point guards. And while we called Smart our point guard, it was actually Evan Turner handling most of those duties in the starting lineup. So all three of our starting perimeter players didn't fit the standard definitions of their position names.

I'd pass on both Hibbert and Lin. Hibbert is an unreliable enigma poorly suited to Stevens' offense. Let someone else overpay for Lin.

Rambone, I probably should have been clearer.  Let's say Lin is in and Avery is out of the starting lineup.  Who on the current squad (which is obviously going to change) would you have in the other backcourt slot (whatever it's called)?  Turner?

Right now, Evan would be my choice because (1) I believe his scoring would improve without the added responsibility of being the floor general, (2) I think his defense would improve by being a better height matchup at SG than he was at the "3," and (3) I like the idea of having two starting backcourt players who have talents at ball distribution.

What do you know about Lin's defensive ability?

Sam

Oh. I'd have Smart starting at SG. He's far and away a better defender than Turner, regardless of Turner handling pg duties. And Smart's offense is underrated. He's going to come in to next season (and this summer league) with a much more aggressive mentality attacking the rim. Smart's ankle injury was a long lasting thing, which hampered his athleticism for a big chunk of the year. As a rookie, he also wasn't getting many foul calls when he drove to the rim, and I think that had some curbing effect as well.

Smart was absolutely elite at attacking the rim in college, and he didn't suddenly lose that ability. He was mostly just in the mentality of trying to fit in with teammates, and share the ball (to a fault), while developing his jump shot. And I think Stevens may have encouraged him to play like that. As a second year player, with a year of experience, and a year of trust from the coach, Smart is going to attack the rim much more. We saw some of this in the playoffs against the Cavs, and he looked great attacking the rim.

The advanced stats don't like Evan Turner very much. He filled an important role last year, but he didn't fill it as much as his flashy stats sometimes suggested.

To me, starting SF is our biggest weakness. I still think Turner can and will get better, but if we have a chance to get a Luol Deng or trade for a Parsons or otherwise acquire a standout small forward, I hope Danny jumps at the opportunity.

I think Smart is already a better overall player than Turner, and that's only going to grow with another summer of hard work for Smart. Turner is versatile, I'll give him that, and he has the kind of confidence that would excel off the bench, backing up 2 or 3 positions.

Assuming Danny does address what I believe to be our biggest need at starting small forward, chance are that player won't have the point forward skills that Turner has. And Smart is only going to be able to regularly penetrate into the lane against shooting guards, when not in a pick and role. Point guards are simply too quick for Smart to drive to the rim on, and Smart is also better defensively against shooting guards than point guards.

Smart also doesn't really have legit starting point guard ball handling craftiness. He can definitely handle a co-point guard role, and even moreso next year.

So all Smart really needs is a co-point guard, and Turner would certainly suffice I suppose, but Jeremy Lin might very well be a very solid, and cheap option if we are able to sign/draft/trade for an upgrade at SF.

Lin is a good shooter with range, he can score off the dribble from anywhere, he can get to the rim and absorb contact, he's a very good passer, and his IQ is sky high. Bradley is a solid player, but he lacks a lot of those things: Ball handling, poise, IQ, dribbling to the rim, and passing ability.

Bradley is clearly a better defender than Lin, as is probably just about as good a player overall, but not if Smart is going to be the only point guard on the floor. Our starting lineup had I believe the worst or close to the worst offensive efficiency in the NBA. It was bad bad.

Lin does have good size for defending point guards, his athleticism is average, and his IQ and effort are high. Overall, he's a very solid defender, and would be a defensive upgrade over Bradley in terms of help defense and playing the passing lanes. Lin is also 5-10 pounds stronger than Avery, so Lin wouldn't be a bad defender against shooting guards when Smart, Bradley, or IT are defending PGs.

We saw Turner sign with Boston for multiple years and very very low money, in part because he was confident in the fit and confident that Stevens could help him revitalize his career. I can very much picture Lin coming to the same conclusion, and the Celtics getting a nice steal of a player for very low money.

And if IT was ever moved into the starting lineup, Lin off the bench would be a very good thing to have.

Outside wrote:I'd pass on both Hibbert and Lin. Hibbert is an unreliable enigma poorly suited to Stevens' offense. Let someone else overpay for Lin.

yeah, I'm with you on this one for sure.

Hibbert won't fit here style wise and Lin isn't any better than our top three guards here now. In fact Lin was never anything more than NY hype to me.

I must confess to being a little wary here.  Not so much of Hibbert or Lin, but of the statement that Brad wants to run an uptempo team.  Just because that's what we've seen him do that doesn't mean that's what he wants.  If Brad has shown anything it is that whether you give him lemons, oranges or constantly change the mix mid-making as Danny did this year, he still figures out how to get the best out of it.

Who is to say that, if you gave him a team of lumbering behemoths he wouldn't suddenly do a 180 degree reversal?  Who was our first big off the bench in the playoffs?  Fatso Sullinger.  He averaged 20mpg while the quicker, more lively Jonas Jerebko (who had been playing well up to then) only played 17mpg.  Watching Sully run suicides must be more fun than going to a comedy club (unless you're a Celtic fan, in which case it'd be painful) and he was the first big off the bench.  What does that say about Brad's "uptempo style of play"?  We were getting killed on the boards, especially but not solely by Tristan Thompson, so Brad adapted.

I like uptempo ball, I'd prefer uptempo ball, I'm just not convinced that if this was a pick up game at the schoolyard and Brad could pick any players he wanted for his team that he'd pick a team of greyhounds.  I've seen him switch gears and tactics too many times this past season.  He is so focused upon "who's next" I think that produces a fluidity of thought, tactics and style of play.  As a result, I am not convinced that Hibbert is "inappropriate" for Brad's game.


bob


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rambone wrote:Oh. I'd have Smart starting at SG. He's far and away a better defender than Turner, regardless of Turner handling pg duties. And Smart's offense is underrated. He's going to come in to next season (and this summer league) with a much more aggressive mentality attacking the rim. Smart's ankle injury was a long lasting thing, which hampered his athleticism for a big chunk of the year. As a rookie, he also wasn't getting many foul calls when he drove to the rim, and I think that had some curbing effect as well.

Smart was absolutely elite at attacking the rim in college, and he didn't suddenly lose that ability. He was mostly just in the mentality of trying to fit in with teammates, and share the ball (to a fault), while developing his jump shot. And I think Stevens may have encouraged him to play like that. As a second year player, with a year of experience, and a year of trust from the coach, Smart is going to attack the rim much more. We saw some of this in the playoffs against the Cavs, and he looked great attacking the rim.

The advanced stats don't like Evan Turner very much. He filled an important role last year, but he didn't fill it as much as his flashy stats sometimes suggested.

To me, starting SF is our biggest weakness. I still think Turner can and will get better, but if we have a chance to get a Luol Deng or trade for a Parsons or otherwise acquire a standout small forward, I hope Danny jumps at the opportunity.

I think Smart is already a better overall player than Turner, and that's only going to grow with another summer of hard work for Smart. Turner is versatile, I'll give him that, and he has the kind of confidence that would excel off the bench, backing up 2 or 3 positions.

Assuming Danny does address what I believe to be our biggest need at starting small forward, chance are that player won't have the point forward skills that Turner has. And Smart is only going to be able to regularly penetrate into the lane against shooting guards, when not in a pick and role. Point guards are simply too quick for Smart to drive to the rim on, and Smart is also better defensively against shooting guards than point guards.

Smart also doesn't really have legit starting point guard ball handling craftiness. He can definitely handle a co-point guard role, and even moreso next year.

So all Smart really needs is a co-point guard, and Turner would certainly suffice I suppose, but Jeremy Lin might very well be a very solid, and cheap option if we are able to sign/draft/trade for an upgrade at SF.

Lin is a good shooter with range, he can score off the dribble from anywhere, he can get to the rim and absorb contact, he's a very good passer, and his IQ is sky high. Bradley is a solid player, but he lacks a lot of those things: Ball handling, poise, IQ, dribbling to the rim, and passing ability.

Bradley is clearly a better defender than Lin, as is probably just about as good a player overall, but not if Smart is going to be the only point guard on the floor. Our starting lineup had I believe the worst or close to the worst offensive efficiency in the NBA. It was bad bad.

Lin does have good size for defending point guards, his athleticism is average, and his IQ and effort are high. Overall, he's a very solid defender, and would be a defensive upgrade over Bradley in terms of help defense and playing the passing lanes. Lin is also 5-10 pounds stronger than Avery, so Lin wouldn't be a bad defender against shooting guards when Smart, Bradley, or IT are defending PGs.

We saw Turner sign with Boston for multiple years and very very low money, in part because he was confident in the fit and confident that Stevens could help him revitalize his career. I can very much picture Lin coming to the same conclusion, and the Celtics getting a nice steal of a player for very low money.

And if IT was ever moved into the starting lineup, Lin off the bench would be a very good thing to have.

rambone,

Well thought out.  You explain each step of your thinking and hypothetical lineup clearly.

If Bradley isn't starting, or is traded, who do you see guarding the Irvings, Walls, Currys and Lawsons of the league?  Those guys are whippets.


bob



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Outside wrote:I'd pass on both Hibbert and Lin. Hibbert is an unreliable enigma poorly suited to Stevens' offense. Let someone else overpay for Lin.

I agree.
To me Jeremy Lin is a very solid back up point guard, but you don't want him starting for your team.
Boston needs to upgrade their roster, not move laterally.

Jeremy Lin cannot play defense and is not durable, pass. IF we don't land Mr Intimadator this off season, I would take Hibbert for his defense at a reduced contract.

Upgrading the roster sometimes includes moving laterally at one position so you are better suited for upgrading at another position.

Say we got Luol Deng, a clear upgrade from Turner despite his triple doubles.

You think a
Bradley
Smart
Deng
Sully?
Zeller/center x

... would work? No. We'd have even worse ball handling, playmaking, and dribble driving than with Turner.

I really, really like Bradley, and not only do I not want to trade him, but I even get slightly offended when other fans suggest trading him. But the fact is, our starting offense was among the very worst in the league, and Bradley, Turner, and Bass were the biggest reasons why.

Offensive real +/-: Defensive real +/-
IT4: 4.08 -2.74
Olynyk: 1.83 1.75
Sully: 1.53 .21
Smart: 1.13 1.05
Zeller: -.79 1.39
Bradley: -1.09 .76
Turner: -1.10 -.26
Bass: -1.22 -.17
J.Young: -1.68 -2.06
Pressey: -3.09 -.77
Rondo(bos/dal)-3.66 .45
JLin: 1.37 .28

Starting lineup in bold.

It's not a perfect stat, and who you play with still rubs off on you despite the stat's best attempt to separate it, but we can see that Bradley, Turner, and Bass were net negatives, and they were starters.

Short of trading for an all star point guard, making a lateral move in swapping Lin/Bradley would allow the team to go after a stud at SF who isn't necessarily a point forward.

One thing about getting Hibbert is it would make it much more feasible to start IT4 at pg. And if that was the case, we'd be lucky to have a cheap, good point guard like Lin coming off the bench.

Also, because we have so much cap space, and because the salary cap is going to almost double over the next three years, it is very very likely that even signing Hibbert to come off the bench for 12-14 million per year would end up making sense.

If we strike out on the bigtime max guys, we're just going to be sitting there with all this cap room, and with the same old need of size and defense at center.

rambone Josh Smith looked so bad playing with the Pistons that they waived him, then he gets to Rockets and he plays off Hardin and Howard and looks like a completely different player, as a role player, his defense and scoring are essential for Rockets.....but with the Pistons?

AB plays great D, its not in his game to carry our scoring, hes not that type of player, either is Tony Allen....put him with other all star talent, his offense and game would be even better, but he can't be a primary or second option.

Those stats underscore Kelly's value. Coupled with the defensive stat for Kelly - offensive fouls drawn and steals - and Kelly looks more and more like a keeper to me - at the 4.

Cowens, Bradley can be a solid starter for sure, and maybe part of the problem was that Stevens seemed to make Bradley our #1 scoring option to start games. Our go to play at the beginning and often throughout games was to pass to Bradley coming off a curl, for a sideways, fadeaway long 2 point jump shot. Very odd.

As the offensive and defensive real plus minus stats show, Bradley is a better performer overall than Turner.

Maybe just having Sullinger or Olynyk in the starting lineup at PF will make the starting offense flow much better. Maybe even good enough to start Crowder or some new stud SF who isn't a point forward like Turner.

But the fact is, that lineup/roster as is was winning games at a 54 win pace since february, and being such a young team, there's no reason to doubt that next year this same basic team could win 54 games.

So Turner couldn't have been that bad, nor Bradley, and Bass, the worst performing starter, probably won't be in the starting lineup next year.

Looking back, the Celtics could have actually used Joel Anthony this past year, and in the playoffs. Perhaps even moreso than Brandon Wright.

J.Anthony only played 8 minutes per game, but he did have the 10th best defensive real plus minus among centers. We could have used that for 5-10 mpg.

We were also one measly pick away from Jusuf Nurkic falling to us at 17. As a rookie, he finished 3rd among centers in defensive real plus minus. He also weighs 280-290. Man could we use that.

I would consider both Lin and Hibbert as bargain basement types of guys at this time of the year even though they will not likely come cheaply.

My point is that I would much rather have Ainge direct his efforts towards much better players heading into the summer and save looking at these types of guys for mid-July or August when most of the free agent stuff is pretty much over. Who knows? By late July or August neither guy will even get a look from the Cs.

Adding talent to this year's roster is a very important key to this summer's actions, and guys like Lin and Hibbert are kind of adding similarly talented guys since neither one is a star although both have been successful players.

And, if it comes down to either of these guys, I much prefer Lin over Hibbert. He is much more predictable in my eyes as far as what he will bring to the table each and every night.

Rambone, I note that you say that, "Bradley is clearly a better defender than Lin."

Then you say that, "Lin would be a defensive upgrade over Bradley in terms of help defense and playing the passing lanes."

Since help defense is so great a part of the Celtics' defensive schemes, and since you like Lin over Bradley in terms of help defense, exactly what is it about Bradley's defense that outweighs his comparatively poorer help defense in making him a better overall defender than Lin?

Sam

Sam, Bradley is the most feared on-ball point guard defender in the ... world. Tony Allen and Kawhi Leonard don't come close to his lateral quickness. He can hound the quickest stars in the league all the way out to half court, or full court.

You make an excellent point about the value of help defense, in this system and in general. The starting unit needs an IQ upgrade as much as anything else. Bradley, Turner, and Bass could throw a boneheaded pass at any moment.

Our defense finished about 15th overall in most defensive stat categories. I think our perimeter defense was a big part of that, and Bradley was a big part of our perimeter defense. I just haven't watched Lin enough to say with any bit of confidence that Lin is a better overall defender in our system.

Kyrie Irving had a big game one in the playoffs, but after that Bradley gave him a very good run for his money. And sometimes playoff series come down to one on one isolation matchups. Irving vs Bradley, LeBron vs Crowder. Cousins vs Olynyk.

But the good thing about a scrap heap gem, other than not having to trade anything for him, is the fact that you don't have to play him max minutes, and you can change his usage without worry of a Ty Lawson type complaining about minutes on twitter.

Interesting post, and I think you might be onto something... Danny is particularly good at recognizing undervalued players AND Brad is particularly good at maximizing their talents. I'm not going to comment on Lin and Hibbert since so many others have posted astute analyses of both, but I wonder what other players might be undervalued at the moment but whom Brad could resurrect? Obviously the goal is to get a franchise defining talent, but if we can't I am a strong believer in getting better is the best way to get better. I think this especially true for Danny, since he has no personal attachment for "his guys", and wouldn't hesitate to trade them once their true value is recognized. So, who are some other possibly ET-like bargain players the Celtics could go after???

This has turned into quite the nice little thread.


bob


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Shamrock1000 wrote:Interesting post, and I think you might be onto something... Danny is particularly good at recognizing undervalued players AND Brad is particularly good at maximizing their talents. I'm not going to comment on Lin and Hibbert since so many others have posted astute analyses of both, but I wonder what other players might be undervalued at the moment but whom Brad could resurrect? Obviously the goal is to get a franchise defining talent, but if we can't I am a strong believer in getting better is the best way to get better. I think this especially true for Danny, since he has no personal attachment for "his guys", and  wouldn't hesitate to trade them once their true value is recognized. So, who are some other possibly ET-like bargain players the Celtics could go after???

some of the other ET-like bargain players are about to be drafted, and Danny just might get 2-3 Turner-like bargains in one day. Especially guys who maybe don't have the highest draft stock value right now, but who have traits or glimmers of talents that suggest they might outperform their current draft positions.

Robert Upshaw is an obvious possibility. He basically has WCStein's talent, while being stronger with a bigger frame for more continued strength. He's not the athlete WCS is, but he's even longer, and his shot blocking instincts are just as good or better than WCS. But highly questionable character. A new pre-draft interview and workout video should be coming out in the next day or two, and I'll post.

Another possible draft bargain might be Cliff Alexander, who may or may not still be there at 28. He was the #2 ranked freshman coming into last year, but he took a while to get into Kansas' starting lineup. Not long after that, he became ineligible because his mother took out a loan based on his future income. Tough break for him, but it might work out nicely for us.
Alexander lacks polish and natural grace, but in many ways he is just what we need in an upgrade at PF, or at least depth behind Sully. Alexander is 6'9", with huge hands, long arms, and the same 9' standing reach as Olynyk. He's also 254 lbs as of last summer, which means he'll end up as a 260-270 lb monster, with the toughness to match. He's got great shotblocking and rebounding instincts, is a great offensive rebounder, and he's a very solid athlete for somebody that heavy.
He'd give our frontcourt the boost in toughness, defense, and rebounding that we need, and he just might be there at 28. He also has just enough length and strength to play center as well, which is good because offensively he has a limited skillset besides dunking all over people.

There are other potential draft steals as well, like quite possibly Dakari Johnson, but I'll try to think of some possible steals that are already in the NBA.

KJ McDaniels comes to mind. A high second rounder last year, he negotiated a one year contract with the 76ers. He had a great start to the season, fell off a bit, then got traded to the Rockets where he didn't get off the bench much.
Great defender/shot blocker and athlete at SG/SF, but isn't a great shooter.