Re: Reclamation projects, in FA and trade

by **Sam** Thu May 07, 2015 11:06 pm

Rambone,

It's been my impression that Bradley is not nearly the perimeter/open court disrupter he was a few years ago. He's still quite good, but I've always believed his defense is predicated more on athleticism than on technique. And, whereas technique can get better over time, it's often the reverse where athleticism is concerned. Moreover, I think his interior defense is only average, as he's susceptible to picks and bigger opponents. His baseline defense during the past couple of seasons has been inconsistent at best.

As I say, he's still better than average, but I believe his current defensive reputation is based largely on the past. Good reputation and possible deterioration of athleticism could signal the time for an advantageous trade. However, I'm not just taking off on Avery (although his inconsistent shooting worries me too), as one could possibly make a case for trading most of the guys on the roster.

Maybe you can quote some of those advanced +/- numbers on Bradley's defensive trend over time. I can't promise to put as much stock in them as you do, but it could be interesting.

Sam

by **rambone** Thu May 07, 2015 11:35 pm

I'd rather talk about how Jeremy Lin would be a better fit in the starting lineup, and how Bradley would make a fine back-up combo guard:)

But yeah, the defensive downgrade when IT4 comes in for Bradley isn't astronomical by any means at all. Like Bradley, Thomas hustles, gets in their face, and moves extremely well laterally. And Bradley didn't help his case to be long-term starter during the playoffs with his offense. And he's only a 7 million per year player, and a humble person, so he's not going to go Rondo if he has to come off the bench.

Those advanced stats, defensive real plus minus in this case:
Smart is 1.05, good for 6th among PGs,
Bradley is .77,
Rondo is .40
Lin is .28
Thomas is -2.72

But of course we don't know what goes into that sausage factory, or what doesn't.

by **rambone** Thu May 07, 2015 11:38 pm

Indycornrows/sbnation wrote:Fact-checking claims about Roy Hibbert's season

Did Roy play well this season? Can he still blame Lance for stealing his rebounds? Should it be assumed that he will take his player option? Separating the facts about Roy Hibbert's season from the fiction.

rry Bird, Indiana's President of Basketball Operations, was uncompromisingly forthright when expressing his negative opinion of Roy Hibbert's play this season to the assembled media at the Pacers' end-of-season press conference last Friday afternoon. From underscoring the 7-footer's decreased productivity to laying out plans to reduce the lumbering center's role, Bird's pointed remarks read less like a motivational tactic as much as they did a calculated attempt to prod Hibbert into opting out this summer.

The problem is, though somewhat dependent upon personal interpretation, some of Bird's barbs do not tell the whole story. Here are the facts about Roy Hibbert's season and future:

Claim: Bird's negative assessment of the 7-footer's play: "I didn't think he played well, to be honest ... I thought at times he played well, he always plays hard, he's very durable — but I don't think he had a great year."

First and foremost, Hibbert needs to be evaluated through the lens of defensive impact. Being the first, second or even third scoring option is not Roy's primary purpose on this team, so why criticize him for something he is not readily being asked to do?

Per basketball-reference, in addition to missing six games this season, Hibbert attempted six or fewer field goals in 16 contests this season. Opportunity goes along way toward explaining why the big man failed to average double-figures in scoring.

Speaking of opportunity, Roy's minutes saw a steady decline after the All-Star break while head coach Frank Vogel experimented with smaller lineups.

Take a look at this month-by-month minutes comparison to understand why the 7-footer's numbers naturally would have seen a dip.

ROY HIBBERT SPLITS G MP FGA PTS TRB
November 11 28.1 10.4 12.7 7.8
February 9 27.6 9.0 9.1 7.3
April 8 23.1 8.6 8.9 8.1
On the whole, Hibbert was still an elite rim protector this season. Per SportVU defensive impact data, Hibbert allowed just 42.6% of opponent field goals at the rim, good for fourth-best in the league minimum 7.0 opponent field goal attempts. The maverick of verticality also saved 2.62 points per 36 minutes, via the rim protection stats provided by Nylon Calculus.

Most recently, the "Hibbert effect" was on full display in a must-win game against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Surviving Russell Westbrook's 54-point scoring barrage, the Pacers edged out their opponent, 116-104. Per Player Tracking, Hibbert thwarted six of the Thunder's 11 field goal attempts while he was defending the rim, which means he saved a minimum of 12 points.

Did Roy Hibbert "play well" this season?

Frank Vogel may have the most level-headed response to this question, per the Indy Star:

"He's got to work on his craft, like all of us do, and he'll do that. He'll come in and work hard in the offseason and try to improve. I think some of his numbers are down because his minutes were down, so I think it's a little bit misleading. I thought he was still a great rim protector for us, which is his primary goal..."

Verdict: Half Truth

Claim: Bird with a classic line on Hibbert’s struggles: "Well, I don’t think Lance is stealing his rebounds."

While this quip likely ushered in plenty of laughs (ha ha ha... Lance left a year ago), it ignores the facts. Hibbert did grab 7.1 rebounds per game this season, which is slightly above his season average from a year ago (6.6), when he shared the floor with Lance Stephenson. At 21.9%, he also posted a career-high in defensive rebound percentage (an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor).

Though these numbers may seem far from mammoth, it is important to note that, per SportVU, Roy was in position for more rebounding chances per game (12.0) than any other Pacer this season, which means he made the effort to put himself within the vicinity of the ball (3.5 feet). Hibbert only recovered 59.3% of his rebounding chances this season, but that figure likely can be explained away by the fact that he is actively blocking out within the designated vicinity in order to better facilitate his teammates ability to grab the rebound.

It might also be worth it to consider just how inconsequential Roy Hibbert's rebounding numbers are when his team is grabbing 44.7 boards per game, good for fourth best in the NBA. As long as the Pacers are finishing defensive possessions with rebounds as well as generating second chance points on offense, should player-by-player distribution of those boards really matter?

Verdict: False.

Claim: Larry Bird on the probability that Hibbert's role will be reduced if he decides to take his player option, "We assume he's going to be back and if he comes back, we're probably going to play another style. And I can't guarantee him anything. He's going to have to earn it."

Assuming "he's going to be back," implies that Roy is more driven by dollars and cents than other intangible motivators such as fit, role or even basic pride.

For months, it has been assumed by the Pacer faithful that it would be financial folly for Indiana's center to leave $15 million on the table this summer. Not only would Roy potentially cost himself millions in the immediate by taking a gamble on himself, he would be sacrificing the opportunity to hit free agency in 2016, when the salary cap is projected to increase exponentially to $90 million.

But what if the 7-2 big man came to terms on a two-year deal with a third-year team option, a la Lance Stephenson. With this type of contract structure, Roy would have two seasons, in different surroundings, to prove himself and could potentially hit free agency in or after 2017, when the cap could balloon by yet another $20 million, as further expounded upon here by Grantland's Zach Lowe.

Should he stay in Indiana where the plan is to play faster and smaller, a decrease in minutes next season could result in a decrease in production which, in turn, could likely equate to a decrease in pay grade. In the end, Hibbert might end up losing less by opting out than staying put.

The only hitch here is that, if he does not take his player option, he will be entering free agency alongside a huge crop of centers this summer: Marc Gasol (unrestricted), DeAndre Jordan (unrestricted), Tyson Chandler (unrestricted), Robin Lopez (unrestricted), Omer Asik (unrestricted), Brandon Wright (unrestricted), Al Jefferson (player option), Brook Lopez (player option) and Enes Kanter (restricted).

However, to the original point, there is no guarantee that Roy and his agent, David Falk, will approach free agency solely from a financial standpoint. The possibility of being benched after having once anchored a team which made two consecutive trips to the Eastern Conference Finals may be reason enough to consider other options.

So, will Roy take his player option?

"Roy, I have no idea," Bird said. "We just talked about different things and whatever he does, he does. I don't know what he's going to do."

It depends on what it is that motivates him.

Verdict: Half Truth.

comment section:

good article
roy gets bashed a ton for his low rebounding numbers, but you’re right in that it’s not because he’s a poor rebounder. he’s pushed out of position for a rebound a lot because he has to play defense on the guy being funneled to him. also, rather than going for the board directly, he instead boxes out and takes up space so the wing can get the rebound. you shouldn’t go out and say he’s a bad rebounder.

even tho you say he shouldn’t be expected to be a top 3 option on offense, i was still pretty let down by his numbers this year. this was his opportunity to step up on that end. there is no reason his offensive numbers should be going down to his rookie year levels.

the dude gets way too much hate, especially from our fanbase. i’m not going to say that we should keep him at any price; it may be beneficial to part ways. but if people think replacing him with a guy like omar asik or WCS would be easy, they are sorely mistaken

indycornrows(dot)com/2015/4/21/8461409/fact-checking-claims-about-roy-hibberts-season

by **Sam** Fri May 08, 2015 12:40 pm

It seems obvious that Hibbert has the physical and skill attributes to qualify as a potential defensive intimidator—and chip in on offense as well. That being the case (at least in my opinion), and considering the fact that it appears he's a certified hard worker, the problems with his output this past season could well be psychological and systemic in nature.

When basketball psychology comes into play I believe heartily in Brad's instincts. When the issue is adapting a system to a player's strengths in order to maximize the player's chance of success, I believe heartily in Brad's instincts. In other words, behabbing reclamation projects seems to be one of Brad's specialties. Any evaluation of Hibbert's chances (or those of any reclamation project) must take that specialty into account. Moreover, there seems to be something about becoming a Celtic that, even if it doesn't contribute mightily toward a cure (which I believe it often does), definitely gets a player's attention and gives the player every possible reason to work his butt off.

There's risk involved with every draft pick, free agent acquisition and trade. I feel pretty good about Danny's ability to assess risks. And this summer could easily become a risk assessment festival.

Sam

by **rambone** Fri May 08, 2015 2:12 pm

Sam, from reading that article and the comments section, it sounds like Hibbert has remained a defensive intimidator throughout. The gripe from some Pacers fans is that max money, which he is basically getting now at 14-15 million per, is too much for just a defensive intimidator/rim protector.

That's probably a good argument, and we'll see how much Danny offers, if anything. But the Pacers might just discover how hard it is too replace that role, if Hibbert bolts for a fresh start. Just having 15-20 million in cap space doesn't mean anything if you can't find somebody good to spend it on, and excellent rim protection is just about the hardest role to fill.

My take, from reading the comment section, is that Hibbert tried but utterly failed to fill some of the scoring void left when Paul George went down for the season. Like fellow Georgetown alum Jeff Green, Hibbert wasn't accustomed to that role, and utterly failed at it. Even to the point of being a bit of a black hole and not passing out of the posts when his position wasn't good and he was double covered.

And for all the criticism that Hibbert got over his low rebounding numbers, even from Bird, Hibbert's supporters say the fact is that Indiana was still 4th in the nba in rebounds, so who cares if Hibbert doesn't have great rebounding numbers. If he's out contesting shots, and boxing out, and his teammates are getting the boards at an excellent clip, it's not that big a deal.

On the Celtics Hibbert would be 4th or 5th scoring option. Though one thing some Pacers fans were griping about is how Hibbert maybe even stated publically that he needs touches to feel involved and locked in to the game.

That could be an issue, but like you, I trust Brad to bring out the best performance and attitude from Hibbert.

And unlike most of the other center targets we've been discussing, Hibbert actually brings a big strength upgrade to Zeller and KO. WCS does nothing to upgrade our interior strength and toughness.

by **rambone** Fri May 08, 2015 2:14 pm

lol. re-reading the indycornrows comment I quoted above, I now realize I basically just paraphrased that entire comment.

by **Sam** Fri May 08, 2015 3:39 pm

Rambone, one can't go by public quotes from NBA players or especially coaches; that's for sure. But Larry didn't even go the usual p.r. route of saying, "Of course, we'd like to have Roy with us." But Larry certainly seems lukewarm to say the least.

Sam

by **wide clyde** Fri May 08, 2015 6:54 pm

I am still not a Hibbert fan, and only may become one if he decides to play for much less money than he is currently making-like about half and that only on a very short contract.

For the financial reason, I believe that he will stick in Bird's craw and take his option with Indiana as it may be his last big pay day. I do not think that him rejecting his player option and looking to sign anywhere else will get him anything near the 15 M he will get by staying with Indiana.

Hard to think that no other team has not seen (or not seen) larry's quotes about Hibbert.

Sam, I see Bird's statements/non-statement about Hibbert to be much colder than just lukewarm. Remember that still water runs deep but also that such deep running water is quite cold. Sounds to me that Bird would l-o-v-e to have this guy turn down his player option and do anything but wear a Pacers uniform.

by **Sam** Sat May 09, 2015 2:29 am

Clyde, I was actually going to say "cold" instead of "lukewarm," but I sold a house today (Friday) and am feeling amazingly charitable after a bunch of celebratory adult beverages. (Berlin take notice. I'm staying up half the night making Paris arrangements.)

Sam

by **rambone** Sat May 09, 2015 10:35 am

Congrats Sam. Was it the Cape Cod house?

by **bobheckler** Sat May 09, 2015 11:56 am

sam wrote:Clyde, I was actually going to say "cold" instead of "lukewarm," but I sold a house today (Friday) and am feeling amazingly charitable after a bunch of celebratory adult beverages. (Berlin take notice. I'm staying up half the night making Paris arrangements.)

Sam

sam,

I don't know how long you're planning on staying, but have you considered using homeandaway.com or airbnb.com?

You can rent a studio, with a kitchen, which will cut into costs so you can stay longer.

bob

.

by **rambone** Thu May 14, 2015 3:57 pm

Here's the ultimate reclamation project, draft version.

A video interview with Robert Upshaw featuring highlights from his pre-draft preparations at P3 in Santa Barbara, CA as well as highlights from a 5-on-5 workout.

Dude looks like Joel Embiid, with major major offensive flashes. Step back jumper, fadeaway from deep, all in his first workout in 3 months after recovering from injury.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Robert-Upshaw-Workout-Video-4967

by **RosalieTCeltics** Thu May 14, 2015 7:37 pm

I agree with those who passeed on both these players. Lin is an enigma to me, and Hibbert, sorry he doesn't have it where it counts, the heart.

Rosalie

by **Sam** Thu May 14, 2015 8:27 pm

Thanks, Bobc. We've rented out our own house and cottage through VRBO and Home Away, so we're pretty familiar with them. However you're on the right track. After 20+ stays in our favorite little hotel, it was sold and the prices tripled. So last year (for the first time), we rented a studio apartment just half a block away from that hotel, so we knew the neighborhood. It was great. Eight hours after we signed the offer and acceptance document, I had made both airline and apartment reservations for 15 days beginning at the end of August. When I started researching and calling, I was wearing a jacket. Eight hours later, I was still wearing the jacket and beginning to sweat. Guess my powers of concentration are very selective.

Apartment it is. Thanks again,

Sam

by Sponsored content