Ten big men expected to go in first round of 2015 Draft

CSNE

A. SHERROD BLAKLEY


BOSTON – Both Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens have identified the need for a scoring big man as one of the items on their summer wish-list.

But they’re smart enough to know that having all their wants met is unlikely.

With what will probably be more than $20 million in salary cap space this summer, money won’t be an issue when it comes to finding a frontcourt scorer who can make a major impact.

Convincing him to come to Boston?

Now that’s another story.

One way around that is to find a player who meets that criteria through the June 25 NBA draft.

Boston has a pair of first-round picks, No. 16 and No. 28, respectively.

Before you poo-poo on the idea that the Celtics can get anything of great value with either of those picks, consider this.

Of the 12 Eastern Conference all-stars this season, five of them were drafted 19th or lower in their respective draft classes.

And two of those players (Atlanta’s Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver) were both second-round selections.

Here we’ll take a look at some of the top big men in this upcoming draft, some of whom are exactly what the Celtics are looking for.



KARL ANTHONY-TOWNS, Kentucky

Height, Weight, Position: 7-foot, 250, Center

Strengths: Tremendous potential as a low-post or face-the-basket scorer; strong work ethic; under-rated defender when he has to switch out on pick-and-rolls.

Weaknesses: Good leaper, but not considered explosive; needs to add strength to lower body; needs more post moves.

Projected draft position: No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick



JAHLIL OKAFOR, Duke

Height, Weight, Position: 6-foot-11, 270, Center

Strengths: Exceptional low-post scorer; has NBA body; has a 7-5 wing span.

Weaknesses: Lateral quickness needs work; not a “stretch” big; free throw shooting not great.

Projected draft position: No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick.



WILLIE CAULEY-STEIN, KENTUCKY

Height, Weight, Position: 7-foot, 240, Center

Strengths: Quick leaper; rim protector; good pick-and-roll defender

Weaknesses: Few moves offensively; Focus tends to come and go; shooting percentage dropped every year at Kentucky.

Projected draft position: Top-10.



KRISTAPS PORZINGIS, LATVIA

Height, Weight, Position: 7-1, 220, Power Forward-Center

Strengths: Excellent shooting touch; good ball-handler for his size; runs the floor extremely well.

Weaknesses: Not strong enough to play center; gets pushed around too easily; face-up game is where most of his points come from.

Projected draft position: Top-10.



FRANK KAMINSKY, WISCONSIN

Height, Weight, Position: 7-foot, 240, Center-Power Forward

Strengths: High basketball IQ; excellent footwork; skilled post-moves, face-to-the-basket game.

Weaknesses: Lacks average athleticism; lateral movement not good; needs to add strength if he will play some at center.

Projected draft position: Lottery Pick (top-14).



MYLES TURNER, TEXAS

Height, Weight, Position: 6-11, 243, Power Forward-Center

Strengths: 7-foot-4 wingspan; pick-and-pop potential; excellent free throw shooter (83.9 percent).

Weaknesses: Lower body strength an issue; only 19 years old; underwhelming play at Texas (10.1 points, 6.5 rebounds per game).

Projected draft position: Lottery pick (top-14) to late teens of first round.



TREY LYLES, KENTUCKY

Height, Weight, Position: 6-11, 250, Power Forward-Center

Strengths: Good upper body strength; high basketball IQ; Scores high when it comes to making hustle (50/50) plays.

Weaknesses: Lacks explosiveness; lateral quickness an issue at next level; inconsistent 3-point shooter.

Projected draft position: Lottery pick (top-14) to late teens of first round.


KEVON LOONEY, UCLA

Height, Weight, Position: 6-9, 220, Power Forward

Strengths: Good rebounder; court vision is solid; makes a living at the free throw line.

Weaknesses: “Tweener” (Power forward or small forward?); needs to improve upper body strength; needs quicker release on shot attempts.

Projected draft position: Lottery pick (top-14) to late teens of first round.


BOBBY PORTIS, ARKANSAS

Height, Weight, Position: 6-10, 240, Power Forward

Strengths: High energy, high motor player; nice mid-range touch; versatile defender.

Weaknesses: Needs to develop post-game; post defense not great; lack of athleticism limits his long-term potential.

Projected draft position: Middle to latter stages of the first round.


MONTREZL HARRELL , LOUISVILLE

Height, Weight, Position: 6-8, 240, Power Forward

Strengths: Powerful dunker; 7-3 wingspan; Height, Weight, Position: 6-11, 250, Power forward-Center

Weaknesses: At 6-8, will have problems defending taller (most) power forwards; limited shooting touch beyond dunking; needs to keep high motor in check, avoid being overly aggressive.

Projected draft position: Teens, mid-20s of first round.

Other possible big men with first-round potential: Christian Wood (UNLV); Robert Upshaw (Washington); Jarell Martin (LSU); Cliff Alexander (Kansas)

112288

Turner falling to our pick would be nice, though I see him needing a year or two to be in the rotation.

It's getting scary how easy it is to identify a Blakley article simply by reading a sentence or two.  These are the unholy trinity sentences that got me this time:

"With what will probably be more than $20 million in salary cap space this summer, money won’t be an issue when it comes to finding a frontcourt scorer who can make a major impact.

Convincing him to come to Boston?

Now that’s another story"


Ooh, the sharpness of his insights cut like a crow bar.


At least he listed 10 prospects, and it was helpful to see all of them in the same place because that's never happened before.


And, at the end, when A. Sherrod went out on a limb and made those pithy predictions.....oh wait.


Sam

Nice to see all the top big men in the draft all on the same page, but I think that any of them should become a second option after trying to land a young, veteran, NBA ready big man.  Noel and Cousins are options to consider.

Either approach is likely to need several of the draft picks that Ainge has in surplus, but a big man is the most important need on this team, in my opinion.  In fact, I think that this need has existed even since before Garnett and Pierce were traded and the current re-build took place.

The Cs really need a guy who can get double digit rebounds every night as well as defend the lane better.  If he can score effectively there will likely be enough scoring around him and off the bench.

Here's an idea for another article, A. Sherrod.  Exactly the same as this one, but substitute the words "intimidating" or "defensive" (or both) for the word "scoring."

Sam

Sam,

You are being pretty tough on Blakley. You know that this is a down time to write about things that are Celtics.
No more playoffs, don't even have the draft order yet, summer leagues are over 2 months away, the combine workouts are still down the road, free agency is almost 2 months away, etc, etc.

I really think that Mr. Blakley gets his idea right of this and possibly other forums. Maybe he could go over and do some work on the Red Sox as they have lots to write about these days.

speaking of bigs, there's a new workout video of Chris Walker. He'll go somewhere in the second round. Lottery level athlete, but undrafted level IQ and intangibles. He didn't get a lot of minutes for UFlorida, even though he was a top recruit. Not a lot between the ears apparently:

draftexpress(dot)com/article/Chris-Walker-Workout-Video-4947

One very possible first round pick that Blakely didn't mention is Chris McCullough from Syracuse. He's very much in the Christian Wood mold, skinny, very long, and even more athletic. Even better suited for defending small forwards. He's about an inch or two shorter than Wood though, and he is recovering from a torn acl right now.

Despite his great start at Syracuse, there are not a lot of highlight clips, so here is a video from a year ago, before he started college. Just so you get the idea:

youtube(dot)com/watch?v=sGQmxOCl_1g

Dakari Johnson is another possible first round big that Blakely fails to mention.

His description of Kaminsky was pretty bad too. You'd never know he was a great scorer with 3 point range.

Clyde,

You're right.  I guess I wouldn't want people criticizing me if I were doing the best I could.  (Hey, maybe they are and I'm just too dense to realize it.)  And, as nearly as I can determine, he has a decent (if unexciting) television manner.  Maybe I just have too much contact with media types and he seems to suffer by comparison.

I just can't believe he can't produce more original analyses (even during the busy parts of the season) given the entrees he has.

Sam

if I had to rank the big men with only the CELTICS in mind and assuming that the big two or Towns and Okafor are simlply out of reach, it would be as follows:

1. Cauley-Stein- his defensive ability would fit in well with what Stevens does. Even if his offensive game is nill. Think of him as a younger DeAndre Jordan ( remember his first couple years). We'll need a big package to move up to the 5-8 range to snag him.

2. Turner- Raw now, but he has an outside shot AND rim protection ability's that would fit well with Stevens system also. Would probably need a few years to mature before being a regular though. if he falls slightly the #16 & 28 picks might be enough to get him around 12 or so.

3. Porzingis- Bob loves him , enough said for me. skinny as all get out and not a NBA center, but this guy COULD become an NBA all -star down the road as a stretch four. Like WCS, a BIG trade package would be needed as he'll go 5-8 I think.

4. Kaminsky- rambone likes him more than me. I see a hard worker who may have peaked in his game now. Kind of a cross between Zeller and Olynyk to me. We could do worst at #16 though.

5. Upshaw- kid has the L. Sanders smoke problem, but he's a big time rim protecter. BIg red flags after being kicked out of TWO schools, but someone will take a flyer on his upside late first or early second I think.

6. D. Johnson- I don't see him as anything more than a backup in the NBA, but he could be a 10 year player as a BU ( I think of Mahinmi when I see him). As rambone points out, NBA teams draft bigs early so I ecepevt him to be a late first rounder.

I'm trying to think of who among the draft prospects fits Ainge's definition of "dynamic scorer", in the event that we don't get Tobias Harris, who seemed to be who Danny must have been talking about.

Kaminsky definitely fits that description, and I'd be very very happy if he fell to 16.

Bobby Portis could fit that description to an extent.

Looney would be a solid pick, and he's dynamic, but not necessarily high upside as a scorer.

Christian Wood fits the definition pretty well, but he's more of a long term project.

http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2015/5/6/8560295/la-lakers-nba-draft-2015-jahlil-okafor

Combine measurements starting to come out

According to @ESPNU, Robert Upshaw unofficially measured a Rudy Gobert-esqe 7-7 1/2 wingspan and 9-5 standing reach.

rambone wrote:Combine measurements starting to come out

According to @ESPNU, Robert Upshaw unofficially measured a Rudy Gobert-esqe 7-7 1/2 wingspan and 9-5 standing reach.

Holy Guacamole!!  He's a damn Condor!  He's 264#, unlike Gobert who came out of college at 238#.

The rap on him is that he's a problem kid.  He has been shown the door by 2 college teams, both times mid-season.  NOT good.  I'd like to know if his problems are with academics or coachability.  His last coach "wished him well as he moves forward in his life".  That doesn't sound like a glowing testimonial from a coach.  It sounds more like "and don't let the door hit you in the ass when you leave".

Shoots 43% from the line and has no mid-range game at all.

His agent is Bill Duffy.  Duffy also represents Rajon Rondo.  Maybe he'll have fond memories of Danny. We'll be picking #16, unless Danny makes a move (Danny? Make a trade? No!) and unless someone drops way down it's going to be hard to find someone with these physical talents that far down.

Then again, Gobert was picked #27 and DeAndre Jordan was a 2nd rounder. Stranger things have happened.







bob


.

Get Robert Parrish to take Upshaw under his wing. What is the NBA policy on smoking grass anyways? Not too strict. I'd roll the dice on him.

I think it was more than just MJ. And I think there was a selfish attitude as well, which his most recent coach alluded to, saying 'some guys had their own agenda' or something.

It's like the sudden and nationally recognized success he had last year went straight to his head, and brought out the worst in him. Substance abuse/risky behavior wise and attitude wise.

At the same time, getting even one good year out of him would probably be worth the 28th pick, and a 3-4 year guaranteed contract.

On the court he's probably an 8-10 million per year player, value wise.

The story I heard about Rondo from Kentucky locals was probably worse than what Upshaw was doing, whatever it was, and we won a ring with Rondo. Not to mention Parish, who did a lot more than just smoke MJ (not talking about drugs).

But as you can see, Upshaw has the sheer size/weight that WCStein can't touch, literally and figuratively, and Upshaw will be much better suited to the full array of challenges centers face than WillySkinnyStein.

FYI though guys, Dakari Johnson measured out very nicely with a 9'4" standing reach, just one inch short of Upshaw, and without any of the baggage. Dakari is a good person, a hard worker, and a team first player, and he has real post offense potential.

There's a lot of guys that would upgrade our frontcourt/center depth in this draft.

Trey Lyles and Montrezl Harrell being a couple more guys that could play center just fine, probably at a starter level.

I'll get a view of the full numbers any minute hopefully, but one additional not about Dakari and his standing reach of 9'4", one shy of Upshaw's standing reach.

Dakari, who measures 6'11" w/o shoes, inexplicably wore very short shoes, 3/4" instead of the usual 1 1/4 - 1 3/4 inch shoes. In other words, he's a very legit 7 foot in shoes, when he wears normal shoes.

I only mention this because Dakari's standing reach would have been even higher if he hadn't worn small shoes. The standard 1.5" lift shoes would have put his standing reach just 1/4 inch off Upshaw's 9'5" standing reach. Of course I don't yet know what size shoes Upshaw was wearing yet.

rambone wrote:Combine measurements starting to come out

According to @ESPNU, Robert Upshaw unofficially measured a Rudy Gobert-esqe 7-7 1/2 wingspan and 9-5 standing reach.

Now I'm seeing that Upshaw's wingspan was 2" shorter than listed above.

rambone wrote:FYI though guys, Dakari Johnson measured out very nicely with a 9'4" standing reach, just one inch short of Upshaw, and without any of the baggage. Dakari is a good person, a hard worker, and a team first player, and he has real post offense potential.

There's a lot of guys that would upgrade our frontcourt/center depth in this draft.

Trey Lyles and Montrezl Harrell being a couple more guys that could play center just fine, probably at a starter level.

Dakari really has the size and if he does well in the other facets there, he should be right into the first round. While I still see his skillset and NBA career as Mahinmi-like, we sure could do worst at #28 in this draft.

I disagree that Lyles and Harrell can be anything more than PF's in the NBA. Harrell is Bass sized, enough said. I like Lyles at #16, IF Ainge can land a Starting center in trade or Free agency.

Harrell and Lyles are both big or long enough to do situational backup duty at center, similar to how Sully holds his own there. Not as traditional rim protectors, but as overall solid enough producers. And Lyles is still so young that he'll get stronger. Again, won't be a traditional high flying rim protector, but rock solid production overall.

Just looking up some old combine measurements for perspective:

Standing reach:
Jae Crowder - 8'3.5". That's like .5" higher than Marcus Smart's. Even if that # is off by as much as 2", it's still very poor for a SF.

Tyler Zeller - 8'8.5". Tiny by center standards. He'd be so much better defensively if he could just reach a few inches higher.

Sometimes, historically anyway, a prospect would not stretch out fully on his standing reach measurement, so that their vertical leap # popped out a lot more and they were seen as more athletic than they actually are. But at the very most, these #s are short by 2", and it shows how much length we've been lacking.

Kelly Olynyk - 9'. still 1.5" below league average, but not a disaster by any means. I use 9' as my minimum standard for centers, though players like Zeller show a center can perform with even less vertical reach than that.

Anthony Davis measured the same 9' flat as KO, for instance, though he may have grown since, as he was just 19 when measured.

Nerlens Noel was 9'2", and Steven Adams was 9'1.5", the league average

These are the guys measured today with 9' or better standing reach:


Robert Upshaw 6' 10.75" 7' 0" 258 7' 5.5" 9' 5"
Dakari Johnson 6' 11" 6' 11.75" 265 7' 2" 9' 4"
Myles Turner 6' 9.75" 6' 11.5" 239 7' 4" 9' 4"
Christian Wood 6' 9.25" 6' 10.5" 216 7' 3.25" 9' 3.5"
Willie Cauley-Stein 6' 11.25" 7' 0.5" 242 7' 3" 9' 3"
Mouhammadou Jaiteh 6' 9.5" 6' 10.5" 247 7' 3.25" 9' 2.5"
Rakeem Christmas 6' 8.25" 6' 9.75" 243 7' 5.25" 9' 2.5"
Kevon Looney 6' 8" 6' 9.25" 222 7' 3.5" 9' 2"
Frank Kaminsky 6' 11.75" 7' 0.75" 231 6' 11" 9' 1.5"
Cliff Alexander 6' 7.25" 6' 8.5" 239 7' 3.5" 9' 1.5"
Chris McCullough 6' 8.25" 6' 9" 199 7' 3.25" 9' 1"
Montrezl Harrell 6' 7" 6' 7.5" 253 7' 4.25" 9' 1"
Bobby Portis 6' 9.5" 6' 10.5" 246 7' 2" 9' 0.5"
Larry Nance 6' 7.5" 6' 8.5" 227 7' 1.5" 9' 0"
Trey Lyles 6' 9" 6' 10.25" 241 7' 1.5" 9' 0"
Chris Walker 6' 8.75" 6' 9.25" 208 7' 2.75" 9' 0"
TaShawn Thomas 6' 7.25" 6' 8" 240 7' 2" 9' 0"
Richaun Holmes 6' 8.25" 6' 9.5" 243 7' 1.5" 9' 0"

Christian Wood really stands out as well with his 9'3.5" standing reach. That's the same as Gogui Dieng, and an inch and a half higher than Nerlens Noel.

As with Noel, Wood measured out lighter than expected, though Wood's 218 is much better than Noel's 206 at his combine.

Wood's elite length also helps my alternative theory that he will be able to hold his own defensively against SFs. He's not quite as quick as most SFs, but he's probably just quick enough to be at least an average on ball defender, and most SFs have a standing reach of around 8'7"-8'10", much much less than Wood's 9'3.5".

But Wood's real strength at SF would be his help defense and his rebounding. He has great shot blocking and rebounding instincts and ability already. His court awareness for help defense isn't above average, but that can improve a bit in time.

And Wood is already a solid enough outside shooter, and opposing SFs are going to be hard pressed to contest his jumpers. So much so that Wood will be able to pump fake them up in the air and blow by them, which he's shown good ability to do.