Re: Ten big men expected to go in first round of 2015 Draft

by **rambone** Wed May 13, 2015 8:32 pm

Jarell Martin didn't measure out with a great wingspan, but he measured out with a very decent standing reach, which is the more important number for front-court players.
Jarell Martin: 6'8, 238.6, 6'9.75, 8'10.5,
I'm also impressed by Martin's weight. At nearly 240, he's much less of a "tweener" than people had been suggesting. He's plenty big enough to play PF, even if he does still have some versatility to perhaps play some SF as well.

by **rambone** Wed May 13, 2015 8:41 pm

We have 3 picks right in the meat of this draft. This draft is a special one depth-wise, especially in the frontcourt positions. That's very rare, and it couldn't happen in a better year for us.

Last year for instance, there was only one player with a standing reach over 9'1.5", and that player was a second round prospect who had to retire for health reasons, Isaiah Austin.

This year, there are 10 prospects with a 9'1.5" standing reach or higher. Quite possibly unprecedented.

Last year, Noah Vonleh had a 9' standing reach, same as Kelly Olynyk, but good enough to help him get drafted 9th in a draft so devoid of size.
Vonleh's standing reach was 6th best in his class.

This year, there are 18 players with Vonleh's standing reach or better.

by **rambone** Wed May 13, 2015 8:53 pm

rambone wrote:Jarell Martin didn't measure out with a great wingspan, but he measured out with a very decent standing reach, which is the more important number for front-court players.
Jarell Martin: 6'8, 238.6, 6'9.75, 8'10.5,
I'm also impressed by Martin's weight. At nearly 240, he's much less of a "tweener" than people had been suggesting. He's plenty big enough to play PF, even if he does still have some versatility to perhaps play some SF as well.

Having less than elite wingspan isn't all bad either, especially if the player still has a good standing reach like Martin does. Shorter arms are easier to coordinate. There's less to go wrong. It just makes Kevin Durant's amazing skill level that much more impressive.

Guys like Zeller, KO, and Kaminsky all play with a very high skill level, and all have feathery soft shooting touch. Martin's less than ideal length isn't a big blow at all, and it might help explain (a bit) the nice skill level he already exhibits.

by **rambone** Wed May 13, 2015 9:05 pm

Some Celtics (dead last in blocked shots) standing reaches:

KO: 9'
Bass: 8'10.5"
Sully: 8'9.5" (pre-back surgery, slightly lower now)
Zeller: 8'8.5" (feel free to add a couple inches, the point remains)
JYoung: 8'8"
Turner: 8'7.5" (6'8" wingspan, tiny for a SF)

Crowder: 8'3.5" (6'9.25"wingspan)
Smart: 8'3"
Bradley: 8'2.5"

IT4: 7'7.5"

We're about to add some serious length to this roster.

by **rambone** Wed May 13, 2015 9:19 pm

Some analysis on draftexpress:

-Dakari Johnson: The Kentucky sophomore measured 6'11 with a 7'2 wingspan and a 264.6 pound frame, making him the heaviest player in attendance. His 10.5 body fat percentage at the UK Pro Day last fall grew to 14.9% here. That's the highest percentage of any player here, but it isn't outrageous by any means, as we've seen a number of players surpass 20% in the past. Johnson is built similarly to Aaron Gray who measured 7'0 with a 7'3.25 wingspan and a 271-pound frame in 2007.

-Trey Lyles: The freshman forward measured 6'9 without shoes on with a 7'1.5 wingspan and a 241.2 pound frame. He's about the same size as Josh McRoberts who measured 6'8.75 without shoes with a 7'1 wingspan and a 240 pound frame coming out of Duke. Lyles has the size to play power forward at the NBA level, but with his 9-foot standing reach, he could even see some minutes as a small-ball center.

-Montrezl Harrell: Harrell measured only 6'7 without shoes, but compensated with a huge 7'4.25 wingspan. Harrell's wingspan to height differential is a ridiculous 9.25 inches. His 253 pound frame for his length and explosiveness puts him in a somewhat unique group body-type wise. He's essentially a bigger version of Ike Diogu who measured 6'6.5 without shoes with a 7'3.5 wingspan and a 255 pound frame.

-Rakeem Christmas: The Syracuse senior measured a tremendous 7'5.25 wingspan ranking just behind Robert Upshaw. At 6'8.25 without shoes, Christmas has impressive length, especially when you take into account his 9'2.5 standing reach, which should allow him to continue to play most of his minutes at the center position without any real issue. At 243 pounds, he certainly has the frame to do it against most NBA backups.

by **rambone** Wed May 13, 2015 9:22 pm

To put Rakeem Christmas' standing reach in perspective, it is 1" taller than Andre Drummond's.

Christmas is going to see his draft stock soar up into the high second round range, especially on the back of his offensive outbreak last season. As a big PF/small ball center, he's a very solid prospect as a bench scorer.

by **bobheckler** Thu May 14, 2015 11:10 am

rambone wrote:We have 3 picks right in the meat of this draft. This draft is a special one depth-wise, especially in the frontcourt positions. That's very rare, and it couldn't happen in a better year for us.

Last year for instance, there was only one player with a standing reach over 9'1.5", and that player was a second round prospect who had to retire for health reasons, Isaiah Austin.

This year, there are 10 prospects with a 9'1.5" standing reach or higher. Quite possibly unprecedented.

Last year, Noah Vonleh had a 9' standing reach, same as Kelly Olynyk, but good enough to help him get drafted 9th in a draft so devoid of size.
Vonleh's standing reach was 6th best in his class.

This year, there are 18 players with Vonleh's standing reach or better.

rambone,

This is an excellent, multi-year observation that really brings some focus to the annual crap shoot known as the NBA draft and what our chances for a nice pickup are. Good eyes.

My opinion is that wingspan/standing reach/overall length and quick leaping (especially the ability to get off a quick second jump) are more important than feet-to-head height and weight. Gobert is much lighter than a lot of the centers he defends but his overall length bails him out. Same with Javale McGee and others. Bradley, at 6'2", is short for a SG, and maybe even for a PG, but he has a 6'7"+ wingspan. Smart is 6'4" but with a 6'9"+ wingspan. Bass is an undersized PF at 6'8" (maybe!) but he has a 7'2" wingspan. The one thing all of these players have in common is that they are superior defenders.

Our help defense was very good this year considering our interior defenders, man for man, where generally weaker than our perimeter defenders and weaker than other teams' interior attackers. My greatest desire, however Danny gets it, is for length.

bob

.

by **Sam** Thu May 14, 2015 11:36 am

Good distinction between height and length (also including wingspan).

And what MADE Russell's blocking skills was his ability to jump so quickly that he didn't have to leave the floor until he was sure the ball had left the shooter's hand.

Sam

by **rambone** Thu May 14, 2015 12:01 pm

Yup. A player can be an elite rebounder without being burly. This draft is Packed with athletes with freakish length who can grab rebounds 12 feet up in the air, while our other Celtics players are peaking out at around 11 feet in the air with lousy second jump ability.

There's no reason we shouldn't come away with 3 draft picks that all have elite length for their positions, and long term potential at multiple positions.

Greek Freak has been transitioning seamlessly to PF, and he has long-term potential at center as well. He's right in that Larry Sanders/John Henson mold, and so are 4-5 guys in this draft.

by **rambone** Thu May 14, 2015 12:02 pm

Player 1 Player 2 Player 3

Ht w/o shoes

6'10.25" vs 6'9.75" vs 6'9.25

wingspan

7'3.25" vs 7'4" vs 7'5.5"

standing reach

9'1" vs 9'4" vs 9"

Weight

250 vs 239 vs 222

Age

19 vs 19 (4 months younger) vs 19

Per 40 pace adjusted

scoring

Player 1: 19.6pts/on 12.5fga/63% true shooting%

Player 2: 18.6pts/on 13.9fga/57% true shooting

Player 3: 17.6pts/on 10.5fga/66% true shooting

blocks per 40, pace adjusted

4.2 vs 4.8 vs 5.8

rebounds per 40, pace adjusted

12.8 vs 12.0 vs 12.9

FT attempts per 40, pace adjusted

6.6fta on 81.3 ft% vs 6.0fta on 83.9 ft% vs 6.3 on 70.9ft%

Player 1 is considered a franchise changing center, the top prospect in the 2015 draft. (KATowns)

Player 2 is ranked around the 9th-13th best prospect in the same draft, despite being younger by 4 months, longer, and almost identical production per 40 by any and every stat category. (Miles Turner)

Player 3 is Anthony Davis' freshman season at Kentucky

by **rambone** Thu May 14, 2015 1:01 pm

I think Myles Turner has MVP potential, and he could easily end up having a better career than Anthony Davis. Davis is so rail thin that the nightly grind of the NBA really does a number on him. He really isn't built for banging with 250 pounders every night.

by **tjmakz** Thu May 14, 2015 1:29 pm

rambone wrote:I think Myles Turner has MVP potential, and he could easily end up having a better career than Anthony Davis. Davis is so rail thin that the nightly grind of the NBA really does a number on him. He really isn't built for banging with 250 pounders every night.

I think this is a huge stretch about Myles Turner.
Other than Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis is the best player in the league 6'10" or taller.
With the addition of a consistent mid and long range shot that Davis has developed, he very well could be the best player in the league in a year or two. He is that good offensively and defensively.
A year ago it was reported that Davis had added muscle and weighed in at 238 lbs.
I thought it looked like he was 250 or so during the season.

http://www.nba.com/pelicans/news/anthony-davis-238-pounds-may-still-be-growing-6-10

by **rambone** Thu May 14, 2015 1:55 pm

Good points TJ, Davis did add a good 20 lbs after he was drafted. He's at least 240, but that's what Turner is right now.

The odds are definitely against Turner being better, but it's really possible to my mind.

by **Sam** Thu May 14, 2015 3:31 pm

I could qualify weight-wise. But I assume a two foot standing reach is a little undersized.

Sam

by **rambone** Thu May 14, 2015 3:55 pm

Lol Sam. My hands are probably smaller than some of these guys palms.

I can palm a grapefruit pretty well, just don't ask me to dunk it.

by **tjmakz** Thu May 14, 2015 4:13 pm

rambone wrote:Lol Sam. My hands are probably smaller than some of these guys palms.

I can palm a grapefruit pretty well, just don't ask me to dunk it.

Hand size is about the only area where I can compete with some of these guys.
Despite being about 9 inches taller than me, I have the same hand size as Frank Kaminsky.
Yes, I measured while at work. :-)

by **Sam** Thu May 14, 2015 8:28 pm

TJ,

You know what they say about big hands.

They can get very dirty.

Sam

by **bobheckler** Thu May 14, 2015 10:06 pm

sam wrote:TJ,

You know what they say about big hands.

They can get very dirty.

Sam

Big hands and big feet mean big gloves and big shoes.

Or maybe I'm just jealous.

bob

.

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