Evan Turner's not bad, and that's a problem for the Celtics

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25263948/evan-turners-not-bad-and-thats-a-problem-for-the-celtics



Evan Turner's not bad, and that's a problem for the Celtics

By Matt Moore | NBA writer
August 9, 2015 3:40 pm ET
 

Evan Turner wasn't bad last year for the Boston Celtics. He wasn't bad compared to his usual performance, and he wasn't all that bad compared to other guards. Turner averaged 10-5-5 last season in 27.6 minutes per game, shooting 43 percent from the field (and a dismal 28 percent from 3-point range). He started in 57 regular-season games and every playoff game in Boston's sweep by the Cavaliers. He's evolved into more of a point guard than a shooting guard, more of a playmaker than a big-time scorer.

That's not to say that he was good last year. Turner finished with the same VORP (Value over Replacement Player) per Basketball Reference as Mario Chalmers, Iman Shumpert, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jeremy Lin. (It should be noted that Kobe Bryant finished just above Turner with a 0.7 to Turner's 0.6. Kobe's career is getting awkward so quickly.) He's still Evan Turner. He just wasn't bad, and that's OK. The Celtics were 4.7 points worse per 100 possessions with Turner on the floor vs. off, but for a player of his caliber on a sub-.500 squad, that's not bad.

However, Turner being not-bad again could be problematic for the Celtics, who have more important long-term player development priorities. CelticsBlog makes the case:

Thanks to the on-hands tutelage of Boston's coaching staff and a supreme work ethic, (Marcus) Smart was significantly more advanced as a pick-and-roll ball handler the last two months of the season and showed substantive progress with his change-of-speeds and direction throughout summer league. If the team intends to progress Smart's offensive impact beyond spot-up shooting, something's got to give.

Turner could simply shift off-ball, or use fewer ball handling opportunities, but that diminishes his greatest skill: shot creation. He even said last preseason, via MassLive, that any coach who sticks him in the corner to shoot three-pointers is no genius. That's because he's only an average to below average spot up shooter, hitting just 28.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season.

If the Celtics did decide to try Turner in that type of role, they'd retain his versatility on defense, but they'd be doing it at the cost of keeping young sharpshooters on the bench. R.J. Hunter showed the potential of being an elite shooter in college, flashed that ability this pre-season, and is likely to someday excel in an off-ball role for a team desperate for more reliable perimeter efficiency.
James Young could also receive an opportunity if this situation were to arise. Point guard Terry Rozier may also be a defensive upgrade over Turner, despite being a rookie.

But Turner's presence diminishes the chances of either of Boston's 2015 first-round picks from receiving an opportunity this season. That may be an acceptable trade-off for a team with more senior players whose contract status and playing time needs demand precedence. The question is whether that trade-off creates the most value, on and off-court. It's a tough equation to factor.
Source: The Evan Turner Domino Effect: How Turner's presence could affect the Boston Celtics - CelticsBlog.


Indeed, Smart led all rookie guards last year in VORP, and was second only to Nerlens Noel among all players in his rookie class. While the VORP metric definitely comes with the same limitations that any single stat does, the eye test will confirm much of what we're talking about here. Smart was good as a combo guard, but could be even better as a point guard. Turner's ceiling is firmly established this late in his career -- he turns 27 this fall. He is what he is at this point, for better or worse. Smart on the other hand, has a world of development in front of him after a good start.

The minutes issue is the bigger problem. Isaiah Thomas figures to have a bigger role on the team going forward as he's likely the best player on the squad. Even if they don't want to give Rozier significant minutes right away while he develops, there are more than enough guard minutes to go around at both guard spots, with Avery Bradley, Hunter, and Smart able to play there.

Turner has one year left at $3.4 million, so his contract should be movable. Unfortunately, point guard just isn't a real area of need for most teams. With so many elite players at that position these days, adding a non-impact guy like Turner doesn't really move you forward. CelticsBlog does mention the Jazz, who lost Dante Exum last week to a torn ACL. That would work, except for Turner's horrific spot-up shooting (28 percent):




Look at that mid-range goodness. Byron Scott would love him. Utah, on the other hand, which needs spacing, not so much. Turners is good defensively, so it wouldn't be a bad move for the Jazz ... if they could get him. That's the unfortunate part. Again, with Turner it's a complicated situation. He's just good enough to demand a good return in trade, but not good enough to want to keep over the other guys, even if he's better than they are right now.

See how this is kind of a trap?

The versatile Turner has worked hard to build a place in this league, and has done enough to show he's an NBA rotation player. Yet Boston finds itself trapped between the former No. 2 pick and a hard place, with no clear solution for the problem of Turner being not-bad.



bob
MY NOTE:  Huh?  So, our "problem" is that our likely starting Point Forward "isn't bad"?  If we can say that about every one of our players we'll have a good team.  He might not be good enough to work as a one-for-one upgrade for an all-star, but maybe combining a couple of 8s, like Turner, to acquire a 9 might work.  Remember, Turner was traded for Danny Grainger.  Grainger might not be what he used to be, we'll know better in this, his first full year back from injury, but he's still pretty good.  If our GM was almost anybody other than Danny I might be a little concerned but Trader Danny never sleeps.

This sounds like more of the "you can't get good without tanking because NBA championships go through the draft" argument, which I don't agree with. If you get a top 3 pick, especially more than once like Cleveland, sure, but once you start dropping down past that I say no.


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There's entirely too much emphasis on Turner's facility at a position he just tried for the first time (in the NBA) last season. He's not a PG. Perhaps he's not a SG or a SF either. What he is, is a bundle of versatility that, according to this writer extends to defensive as well as offense. I believe that's his most appealing characteristic in the eyes of Brad Stevens andDanny Ainge, and it could be true of other teams as well.

He's a utility player—a Jack of all trades and master of none. What's it worth to have a player who can fill in capably at three positions? My guess is that Evan's on the bubble and that his future may not become apparent until we see how the kids perform in training camp.

Sam