Another vote for Brandon Ingram

- BOSTON CELTICS NBA DRAFT 2016 Brandon Ingram's versatility makes him the ideal No. 1 pick for the Boston Celtics By Kevin O'Connor @KevinOConnorNBA on Mar 19, 2016, 1:29p
 Brandon Ingram should be the choice if the Boston Celtics are fortunate enough to land the No. 1 pick. When you consider what the Celtics value -- positional versatility and role elasticity -- and what they need -- three-point shooting and go-to scoring -- Ingram quickly becomes the more appealing choice than Ben Simmons. Ingram has been my top prospect since early January because he has an impressive mix of those flexible attributes. He's a 41.4 percent shooter from three, so he's capable of playing off-ball as a floor spacer in the half court. Though teams don't usually draft for need, the Celtics rank 29th in three-point shooting percentage since 2013 (they rank 26th this season). Simmons would do nothing to help Boston's floor spacing. If anything, he'd hurt it even more. He might even be shooting with the wrong hand. At this stage of his career he's a player that needs the ball in his hands, otherwise he's a virtual non-factor in half court situations. Simmons is lauded for his playmaking abilities, and rightfully so because he's a supremely dynamic player. But Ingram is also a solid playmaker in his own right. The Celtics like playing with multiple ball handlers, so being able to play both on-ball and off-ball is an important skill. Ingram not only can play off-ball, but he can run pick-and-roll too. It's rare for lengthy 6-foot-9 forwards to have the ability to facilitate at this level, but Ingram has very good vision and passing ability for his age. He's gotten better at driving over the course of the season, as that quick spin move shows. With Ingram's height and length, he's capable of making smaller defenders pay with his ability to shoot over the top, and if he's defended by larger players he can drive by using his speed. The Celtics love to get out and run in transition, so Simmons has major appeal because he's a highlight reel waiting to happen in the open floor. But it's not like transition is a weakness for Ingram, because he's also capable of making dynamic plays going coast-to-coast. In the clip above it takes Ingram only two dribbles from half court to get to the rim because of his long strides. Ingram and Simmons are both theoretically highly versatile defensive players. But one player tries on defense and the other does not. Ingram puts forth consistent effort, but suffers occasional lapses in fundamentals and he often gets overpowered due to his lanky frame. But both areas are something that can be improved upon, whereas Simmons' effort may be something that always wanes over the course of a full season. Once Ingram's technique and body improve, he projects as a player that can comfortably defend multiple positions. This could be an incredibly value skill for the Celtics, since switching on defense is preferable in screen actions. That's one reason players like Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart (and even Jonas Jerebko) are so valuable to their success. Brandon Ingram projects as the type of player the Celtics could switch on defense, but it'll be hard for opponents to do the same on the other end since he's capable of scoring in diverse ways against different types of defenders.

I think Brandon Ingram will be the #1 pick in the draft. When he puts on 25 lbs of muscle, he could be a very special player.
Simmons size, defensive abilities, rebounding abilities and playmaking abilities make him quite a prize for whatever team has the #2 pick.
After those two, in my opinion, there is quite a drop off.
Murray from Kentucky should be a good NBA player. But not super athletic.
Buddy Hield can score right away but he's already 23.
Poelti probably hurt his value by scoring only 5 points in a loss in the tournament.

I totally agree TJ. I've heard/read that Ingram's ceiling is Durant like, a shade below offensively but better and more versatile defensively. With Simmons, you can't help but be impressed by his talent and BB IQ but he seems to detach and become passive at times. That of course could be due to youth, poor coaching (Johnny Jones!!!), and a yet to fully develop body (and killer instinct). I don't expect him to grow into a Kobe like cold blooded assassin but I'm hoping for his sake he doesn't regress into a supremely talented Jeff Green, I am sure he won't and he will see many all star games but I think that Ingram will ultimately be the better player.

tjmakz wrote:I think Brandon Ingram will be the #1 pick in the draft. When he puts on 25 lbs of muscle, he could be a very special player.
Simmons size, defensive abilities, rebounding abilities and playmaking abilities make him quite a prize for whatever team has the #2 pick.
After those two, in my opinion, there is quite a drop off.
Murray from Kentucky should be a good NBA player. But not super athletic.
Buddy Hield can score right away but he's already 23.
Poelti probably hurt his value by scoring only 5 points in a loss in the tournament.

TJ,

Depending somewhat on who the ping-pong balls favor, I think you're correct that Ingram is the likely top pick this year.

It's not considered a very deep draft by any means, and yes there is a big drop off after the top two or three, but I do think there are as many as a dozen players that could enjoy decent NBA careers.

One thing this year's draft will probably feature, is the resurgence of the upperclassman as a prized pick. At least a few for a change, anyway.

Regards

I made a youtube video about Brandon Ingram Vs Ben Simmons and Kevin Durant in early February. 50,000 views so far, which surprised me:



Needless to say, Ingram is my choice with the #1 pick. He's actually a much better prospect than Andrew Wiggins, who along with Ben Simmons got more hype than any recent prospects.

Imagine a starting lineup next year of IT, Ingram, Crowder, KO, and Horford. Very realistic to get Horford, especially if we get a great draft pick.

I think I found my niche with videos, where my lack of social skills don't work against me so much, lol.

That's a well-made video. Nice job.

nice video Rambone.

keep linking them for us to see please.

arambone,

Good job on that video.

Nice details at about the 2:15 mark on Ingrams 3pt shooting and the value of 3pt shooting in the NBA today.  Kind of an interesting poke at Evan Turner in that same timeframe explaining, quite correctly IMHO, why his value dropped so much, in large part due to his failure to develop the 3.

At about the 8:20 mark a good comparison is made on the differences between Durant and Simmons going to lesser programs that weren't as deep, and what that meant to their stats, versus Ingram going to a well rounded program.  I like the stat adjustment to balance the three.  I'm a believer that the volume of stats in basketball is way, way overdone and often shows zero.  The way you patch it together here, however, makes an almost impossible to ignore argument.

I think Ingram stands a good chance of going #1, especially if Philadelphia ends up first yet again.  Unfortunately without that top pick we don't stand much chance.  IF, however, we don't get wildly lucky, and IF, the team landing the top spot isn't likely to take a wing, I would hope we would clean out the cupboard to secure that second pick.

I hope you do more of these, if you have the time.

Regards

Thanks a lot guys for the kind words, guys. I'll let you know if I make any more that are thoughtful and relevant to our Celtics.

Now that Ingram's season is over, I made a final stat comparison video between Ingram and Durant:



After Ingram's slow November start, he shot 44% from 3 the rest of the season.

I rarely watch college basketball but now have seen Ingram a couple of times in the last week and he is certainly an intriguing young player.

He is not perfect in any way yet, but he moves so fluidly that if he works hard to develop his very thin body he will likely be a star player in the NBA.

Even being able to be compared to Durant at this young age is pretty solid footing to launch an NBA career from.

Ingram will certainly go 1 or 2.

but WHO should Danny be looking at with the 3-6 pick that he will likely have is the question for me.

anyone who's watched the NCAA so far have any favorites?

If Ingram is there Boston has to take him even if Simmons is available as well.

The Celtics need a SF.

But there is a downside to this picture.  Ingram is NOT NBA ready yet.  He is razor thin and weighs 190 LBS. soaking wet.  It is going to take him several years to add "man" strength.  What I do not like about him and why i would be reluctant to draft him is his frame and also he is a below average FT shooter.  

The likelihood that we get him is as slim as he is.

So my best guess is that we will draft between 3-5.  As you know I love the kid out of Michigan State, Valentine however I like another player even better and his name is Buddy Hield.

Here is the case for Buddy

He is a 4 year player that is NBA ready right now unlike other one and done prospects.

The numbers pop off the page

25.1 PPG
.499% FG
.458% 3 point shooting
.883% FT shooting
5.7 rebounds

He has a complete game.  He can score in multiple ways including shooting from deep deep with little room, taking his man off the dribble.  Wants the ball, can rebound and has length.
Is a perfect fit in brad's pace and space offense.

The Celtics need consistent scoring from the wings off the bench.  They must move the needle on their 3 point shooting.  Buddy has the skills to make that happen.  He is a mature and very humble young man.  Buddy is the best player in College basketball and is well beyond the prospect phase.

dboss

Ingram weighed 196 last summer. I'm guessing he'll weigh 200 at the NBA combine, which is the same as Wiggins weighed, except Ingram has a lot more length.

As far as Hield, I'm just not sure you draft a fully developed senior bench scorer with a top 5-6 pick. Especially when there's a few similar guys like Valentine and Grayson Allen who would be available later.

It's definitely seeming like a pretty weak draft from picks 3-10ish, but with lots of depth after that where you can find great bench guys, guys ready to step in from day one even.

dboss wrote:If Ingram is there Boston has to take him even if Simmons is available as well.

The Celtics need a SF.

But there is a downside to this picture.  Ingram is NOT NBA ready yet.  He is razor thin and weighs 190 LBS. soaking wet.  It is going to take him several years to add "man" strength.  What I do not like about him and why i would be reluctant to draft him is his frame and also he is a below average FT shooter.  

The likelihood that we get him is as slim as he is.

So my best guess is that we will draft between 3-5.  As you know I love the kid out of Michigan State, Valentine however I like another player even better and his name is Buddy Hield.

Here is the case for Buddy

He is a 4 year player that is NBA ready right now unlike other one and done prospects.

The numbers pop off the page

25.1 PPG
.499% FG
.458% 3 point shooting
.883% FT shooting
5.7 rebounds

He has a complete game.  He can score in multiple ways including shooting from deep deep with little room, taking his man off the dribble.  Wants the ball, can rebound and has length.
Is a perfect fit in brad's pace and space offense.

The Celtics need consistent scoring from the wings off the bench.  They must move the needle on their 3 point shooting.  Buddy has the skills to make that happen.  He is a mature and very humble young man.  Buddy is the best player in College basketball and is well beyond the prospect phase.

dboss

I do agree that Buddy Hield is the most ready to help a contender win games.
I just don't think Boston can draft another guard with pick 3-5.
Minnesota or New Orleans could use a SG. Boston could trade down to draft Bender or Poelti.

TJ

The way I see it is that the Celtics have drafted a lot of guards

Smart
Young
Rosier
Hunter

The common similarity between all of these guards is that they came into the NBA out of college with very questionable shooting skills and while they are still very inexperienced one can reasonably expect marginal if not insignificant improvement in their shot making abilities.

The Celtic have a very exciting team and they love to shoot the 3 ball
we all know that the team is a very very poor three point shooting ball club.  Those are the facts and since the 3 point shot is embedded in the offense it is most logical to improve the 3 point shooting percentage.

So if you have a shooter available like a Buddy Hield, I see no good reason not to draft him if he becomes available.  While some will  see a 4 year senior as less desirable than the one and done prospect, I think he provides a more statistically relevant sample size  to better evaluate his production at the next level.

There are some really good shooters coming out but if you have a chance to draft the best shooter then you draft him particularly when your team has an obvious weakness.

Buddy's stats are very comparable to those of Steph Curry when he was in college and OK is in a more competitive conference.

I guarantee you that Hield will not last past the 5th pick and I have seen a mock draft that had him at # 3.

From what I have seen there are no centers that I would take in the top 10.   Jaylen Brown the SF cannot shoot and Bender does does excite me at all.

I think the Celtics can draft 2 high end shooters and then sign a center through free agency or make a trade for a center during the off season.

dboss

Watching Ok and Oregon.

Buddy is a bad boy.

Dboss

Buddy drops 37 on Oregon and hits 8 for 13 from behind the arc.

This guy is an exceptional shooter.

Dboss

Dboss,

After watching Buddy last night, I would have to agree that he is worthy of the #3 pick. All of the other younger guys have too many questions or they just aren't ready to contribute much right away.

Hield has only helped himself in the NCAA for sure.

typically olders college players drop some come draft day, but I think Hield's play on the big stage has elevated him to the top 5 for sure now.

IF Danny would draft Hield, I think you'll see either Bradley or Smart traded.

I would hope that the Celtics would not trade AB because the idea here is to draft another high end scorer to add to the team.  I would also be reluctant to trade Smart.  Last night against the Suns Smart was the guy that would not let us lose by making those really difficult plays. The argument to appreciate his value was on display. He did not have a great stat line but contributed across the board.

Obviously if you add another SG someone has to go and I think his name is James Young.  I think Boston can integrate a 5 man guard rotation with Smart being the defensive stopper.  Then you have IT running the point backed up by Rosier who by the way can become a push push PG off the bench and then Bradley backed up by a guy like Hield.  What about Turner who is the primary ball handler after IT.  Well Turner could be another specialty player that can be the primary SF backup and also backup at the point and SG positions where needed.

At this point this is only speculation but I believe that we will need to upgrade the quality of our depth at SG because at this point we do not have a reliable deep threat off the bench.

dboss

a #3-5 pick would need to do more than take James Young's few minutes a season, IMO.

Rozier's play recently has given a glimpse into why Danny drafted him last year. He gives us a 4 guard rotation.

drafting Hield , Dunn or Murray with a pick that high, puts someone of the trade market for me.

Hield just might fit the bill as a high end scorer with outside shot.

in that case we still need a legit NBA center who can protect the rim and rebound at worst.

FA or trade will have to get it done and having Bradley or Smart as a trade option would make it easier.

KPD59

I suspect that Hield would begin as a rotation player.  As far as minutes are concerned it has nothing to do with taking James Young's few minutes.

I am simply talking about a roster spot

Whether the Celtics draft Hield or Murray or even  Valentine the notion is for the Celtics to improve their overall 3 point shooting percentage.

Every player on this team can be traded.  So I do not disagree with you about names like AB and Smart.  FA will not dictate the needs to make a trade unless it turns into a sign and trade  where the player and his current team agree to move on and they mutually agree to a sign and trade deal.  

I think someone definitely gets traded but DA is not going weaken the team in one area to strengthen it in another.  He does not have to do that.  

dboss

I would put almost ANY college player that the Cs might get with the Nets pick this year on next year's roster ahead of Mr. James Young as well.

I like Hunter better than Young, but Hunter needs to still prove himself as an NBA player as well if he is going to become a rotational player next year. So, at this time, Hunter is certainly a tradeable player.