Checking In On The Dallas Draft Pick

It is top 7 protected.  

As of 3/28, Dallas is in the lottery and has the 13th worst record.

So we want to move up when they do the pingpong balls but not higher than 8th, assuming Dallas stays in the lottery.

Tomorrow I'll trot out the remaining schedule of Utah, Houston and Dallas (unless someone else wants to handicap those races).


bob


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bobheckler wrote:It is top 7 protected.  

As of 3/28, Dallas is in the lottery and has the 13th worst record.

So we want to move up when they do the pingpong balls but not higher than 8th, assuming Dallas stays in the lottery.

Tomorrow I'll trot out the remaining schedule of Utah, Houston and Dallas (unless someone else wants to handicap those races).


bob


.

Bob,

The ping pong balls only determine picks 1, 2 and 3.
Barring something crazy, Dallas will finish with a better record than Denver.
That pick should be between 12-18.

Want Houston to win enough games to stay ahead of Dallas (and they own the tie-breaker over the Mavs) and they just caught a break when Cavs coach Tyronn Lue announced he's resting Lebron for tonight's game against the Rockets in Cleveland.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/lebron-sit-against-rockets-resting-playoffs-193012852--nba.html

I wholeheartedly approve.

TJ

True but you can still move up right?

Dboss

dboss wrote:TJ

True but you can still move up right?

Dboss

Boston can't move up at all with the ping pong balls with the Dallas pick.
The ping pong balls only determine picks 1, 2 and 3.
Then, the remaining 11 lottery picks fall in order of worst to best record.
Dallas could get very lucky and pick 1, 2 or 3, which would mean they keep the pick this year.
Since Dallas has a 5 1/2 game lead over Orlando and Denver, it's extremely unlikely that the pick drops to 11 or 10. It looks highly likely that the Dallas pick will be 12-17.

If the odds prevail it will be a mid-round pick for the Celts.
See below lottery odds.

http://www.draftsite.com/nba/rules/

swish

Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

Cowens,

Has anybody ever told you that you have an obsessive personality?  Perk is gone.  Gobert plays for someone else.  Get over it.

Utah is UP to .500 after beating the 2nd worst team in the NBA?  WOOHOO!!!  There's a statement game if I've ever seen one!!  Oh, wait a second, that means that before they beat the crappy Lakers they had a losing record.

Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

Gobert was drafted by Denver and then traded to Utah as part of a trade that brought Josef Nurkic to the Mile High City.  If you're pissed about not getting Gobert imagine what Nugget fans must be feeling?

In terms of the infamous +/- stat, for players >6'10", Gobert is 24th.  Maybe there are other factors besides rebounding and blocking shots that contribute to a team player helping the team win?   And the Jazz are celebrating getting their noses at .500.  Like scoring.  Gobert is averaging only 9.2ppg despite being the tallest guy on the court and playing 32 mpg.  Like assist-to-turnover ratios.  Gobert is 1.7 assists to 2.1 TOs/36mpg (girlie man Kelly Olynyk is 2.6 assists and 2.0 TOs/36mpg.  A POSITIVE number).  Like frito shooting.  Gobert is 58.1%.  Like 3pt shooting, to spread the floor.  Girlie man Kelly is shooting >40%.  Nobody even guards Gobert past 8'-10'.  Talk about clogging up the middle.  Our Carnival Cruise Ship, the S.S. Sullinger, can hang out around the dotted circle when Gobert is on top because, as long as he's out there, he is no threat to anybody.  If Gobert is setting a pick at the frito line or beyond he is effectively out of their offensive set.

Utah has the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA, behind the Sixers and the Lakers.  The rumors on draft day were that Utah was going to draft Kelly Olynyk with the 14th pick.  That's why Danny moved up from 16 to take him at 13.  Maybe if Utah had gotten Kelly they wouldn't have the 3rd worst offense in the league now.  You only view things through the prism of defense, but there are two sides to the ball and Kelly is a MUCH better offensive player than Gobert, not just in ppg and assists and lower TOs but in how he opens the floor for others.  Kelly can create offense for himself and others, Gobert cannot score unless it is spoon-fed to him.

How about last Wednesday, when Gobert and the Jazz played the Rockets and Gobert had 2 points on 1-7, 7 boards and zero blocks?  The Rockets have a pretty good center, as you know.  And then on Thursday, when the Jazz played OKC and Gobert had 2 points on 1-2, 6 boards and 1 block.  Put Gobert against legit centers and he struggles.  Put him against obsolete thunder lizard Roy Hibbert and the immortal Robert Sacre and he rebounds.  In fact, Gobert has only averaged 5.3ppg on 42% shooting in his last 10 games.  

Can't argue about Young.  I think people fell in love with him because he went to Kentucky.  And yes, I would have taken Hood over Young too.  He scored 30 last night against the Lackers but he's averaging 14.6ppg in 31mpg, so let's not make TOO much of a big deal about him having a good game against a team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.  He was 11-13 last night, 8-9 from 3, but he's shooting 42.3% on the year and 36.5% from 3.  Hmmm, is it possible some of his success last night, vs every other night, is because he was playing the Lackers?  The Lakers have the worst team +/- in the league.  In other words, the difference between their average offense minus their average defense is the #30 out of 30.  No wonder they got blown out by Utah, that's what has been happening all year!  They give up the 4th most points in the league while scoring the 2nd fewest!



bob


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+/- per game for centers:

8. Olynyk, +3.0 per game in just 20 minutes.
9. Sullinger, +2.9 per game in 24 minutes

14. Gobert, +2.2 per game in 32 minutes

The only centers above Olynyk are centers on the very best teams in the league.
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/?ls=iref:nba:gnav#!/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PlayerPosition=C&sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1

If you think it's a fluke, just look at KO's +/- the previous two years. The Celtics as a team have played far better with KO on the court over the last 3 years than any other player from his draft class.

Real Plus Minus for Centers:
1 Jokic

6 Sullinger
9 Olynyk


18 Gobert
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Real Plus Minus Winshare (takes into account total minutes played)

7 N Jokic
8 Sullinger
19 Gobert
24 Olynyk

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Sullinger and Olynyk are arguably giving Boston more at the center position than any other team's roster of centers.

Olynyk is an elite backup center, Gobert is an average starting center, and overall their impact for their teams is about the same.

Of course, Olynyk can also play PF, while Gobert can only play center. It took 3 years for Gobert's impact to approximate Olynyk's impact. Celtics got more out of Olynyk the previous two years, even as Gobert was breaking out as a defensive star last year. Going forward, which of the two has more room for improvement? Very debatable at least. Certainly nothing to cry about like a girly man.

As far as the 2014 draft, Hood is a dime a dozen shooting guard. The real miss with the James Young pick, and VERY arguably the Smart pick, was little ole Nikola Jokic, who was drafted in the second round. He's like Olynyk with more strength, and he's already playing on par with fellow rookies Towns, Porzingis, Myles Turner, and Okafor.

I was higher than anybody on Jokic before the 2014 draft, but even I merely thought the Celtics should acquire a late first rounder or early second rounder to pick him up. In retrospect he should have gone top 5 over just about everybody but perhaps Embiid.

Maybe I should pout and cry about it for 5-10 years.

PTSD: Perk Traumatic Stress Disorder

bobheckler wrote:Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

A key aspect of the pace-and-space era is that some individual stats don't mean what they used to. Even though I almost wrote "Gobert and Hood are gone, it's time to get over it" in response to Cowens' post myself, it's hard to blame Cow for seeing the allure of Gobert's blocks and rebounding and Hood's perimeter shooting when those seem to be in short supply on the Celtics.

But as BobH so astutely pointed out, it's the team stats rather than individual ones that matter. In pace-and-space systems (and the corresponding swarming, switching schemes on the defensive end), stats like rebounding and assists get spread around among the five guys on the floor instead of concentrated in one guy.

Gang rebounding is what's important, not relying on an aircraft carrier center to get the boards. With pace-and-space teams, everyone has to go to the boards, and a lot of rebounds are touched by one or two guys before being controlled by another guy. The last guy gets credit for the rebound, but the first couple of touches are just as critical to your team ultimately getting the rebound. DeAndre Jordan is second in the league in rebounds, but the Clippers are 24th as a team. Dwight Howard is third, but his team is 20th.

It's the same with assists -- instead of having the point guard collect most of the assists by penetrating and dishing, shots are taken after several passes so that the guy who initiates the passing sequence usually doesn't get the assist, and assists are spread around the team. Russell Westbrook is second in the league in assists, but he gets almost half of OKC's assists, and OKC as a team is ninth in assists. The same with Chris Paul -- he's fourth in assists, but the Clippers are 11th as a team. James Harden is sixth, but his team is 17th.

With pace-and-space teams, what you expect is having your individual leaders rank lower than the team as a whole. The Warriors are the model for that with their leading assist man seventh while the team is first, leading rebounder 14th while the team is fourth. The Spurs are even more pronounced -- nobody in the top 20 in assists or rebounds, while the team is third in assists and 10th in rebounds (they play at a much slower pace compared to Golden State -- 23rd in the league -- so their per-game stats are lower).

So, as enticing as guys like Gobert and Favors might seem, especially for those of us conditioned to the traditional way of playing the game with play dominated on offense by the point guard and on defense by rim-protecting, rebounding big men, pace-and-space really is a completely different way to play.

As for Rodney Hood, he has potential as a perimeter scorer, but his true shooting percentage is only slightly better than Avery Bradley's, and Bradley is a far better defender. The Celtics could use better perimeter shooting, but Hood (so far) isn't good enough at that to justify what he gives up defensively.

Outside wrote:

bobheckler wrote:Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

A key aspect of the pace-and-space era is that some individual stats don't mean what they used to. Even though I almost wrote "Gobert and Hood are gone, it's time to get over it" in response to Cowens' post myself, it's hard to blame Cow for seeing the allure of Gobert's blocks and rebounding and Hood's perimeter shooting when those seem to be in short supply on the Celtics.

But as BobH so astutely pointed out, it's the team stats rather than individual ones that matter. In pace-and-space systems (and the corresponding swarming, switching schemes on the defensive end), stats like rebounding and assists get spread around among the five guys on the floor instead of concentrated in one guy.

Gang rebounding is what's important, not relying on an aircraft carrier center to get the boards. With pace-and-space teams, everyone has to go to the boards, and a lot of rebounds are touched by one or two guys before being controlled by another guy. The last guy gets credit for the rebound, but the first couple of touches are just as critical to your team ultimately getting the rebound. DeAndre Jordan is second in the league in rebounds, but the Clippers are 24th as a team. Dwight Howard is third, but his team is 20th.

It's the same with assists -- instead of having the point guard collect most of the assists by penetrating and dishing, shots are taken after several passes so that the guy who initiates the passing sequence usually doesn't get the assist, and assists are spread around the team. Russell Westbrook is second in the league in assists, but he gets almost half of OKC's assists, and OKC as a team is ninth in assists. The same with Chris Paul -- he's fourth in assists, but the Clippers are 11th as a team. James Harden is sixth, but his team is 17th.

With pace-and-space teams, what you expect is having your individual leaders rank lower than the team as a whole. The Warriors are the model for that with their leading assist man seventh while the team is first, leading rebounder 14th while the team is fourth. The Spurs are even more pronounced -- nobody in the top 20 in assists or rebounds, while the team is third in assists and 10th in rebounds (they play at a much slower pace compared to Golden State -- 23rd in the league -- so their per-game stats are lower).

So, as enticing as guys like Gobert and Favors might seem, especially for those of us conditioned to the traditional way of playing the game with play dominated on offense by the point guard and on defense by rim-protecting, rebounding big men, pace-and-space really is a completely different way to play.

As for Rodney Hood, he has potential as a perimeter scorer, but his true shooting percentage is only slightly better than Avery Bradley's, and Bradley is a far better defender. The Celtics could use better perimeter shooting, but Hood (so far) isn't good enough at that to justify what he gives up defensively.

outside,


A very well thought-out and well-written post, especially since you agreed with me.  :-)

When your PF is out 19' to challenge a 3pt fga then what are the odds that PF will be in on the rebounding action or rim protection?  If your center is out 30' because his man is setting a spread pnr backpick on your SG, what are the chances your center will be in on the rebounding action or rim protection? That doesn't mean they aren't effective, you certainly don't want to leave today's shooters alone at the arc just because they were successful in getting a defensive switch and mismatch, it means they aren't going to get the stat.

What will work?  Having gazelles for defenders, players who can rotate swiftly, and having strong rebounding guards like Rozier or Smart or Turner or even Bradley.  Then, if your bigs are out at the perimeter running shooters off the 3pt arc, defenders can rotate to pick up the penetrator and, if there is a shot miss, they can swoop in for the rebound while your big keeps chugging up court to be part of a fast break.  That's what Kelly and Zeller do as well or better than any other 7'ers in the league.  

Pace-and-Space is a variation of saying what Tommy Heinsohn has been saying for 40 years, "move the ball or move yourself".  Run. If you can't run, then pass the ball until the defense over-rotates and an open shot appears. The days of pounding it inside are past.  6'9", 280# Sully tried to do it last night against 6'7", 235# Paul Pierce and he went 4-11 despite starting almost every time in the low blocks.  That's because every time he backed Pierce down until he was ready to shoot they swarmed him and all those seconds he used to do it were wasted.


bob



.

Bob...

It's what I love about Cow. When he takes a stand for something he stays stood.

Bob,

As a player, I would be a relic of the past today -- a back-to-the-basket, limited range center who relished controlling the paint and the boards on defense. I have a natural, almost visceral affinity for a guy like Rudy Gobert, so I'm not lying when I say that I completely understand where Cowens is coming from when he continues to see Gobert as a Eiffel Tower-sized missed draft opportunity. Gobert epitomizes the type of player that I was (though I fancy myself as better offensively and a much better passer).

But the game has changed in a revolutionary way. What's surprising is how long it's taken since the introduction of the three-point line for the revolution to truly take hold. I wonder if it would've happened a decade sooner if D'Antoni's Suns had been able to get past the Spurs and win a title (and they should've won it the year Robert Horry hip-checked Steve Nash into the scorer's table). But changed it has, and I don't think there's any turning back.

Pace-and-space is the way to truly exploit what the three-point line does to the game. I still think there's a place for big men to excel within that system, but they ideally would be able to defend outside of the key, run, and be a threat offensively. The fact that we don't have great centers today enhances the perception that centers are dinosaurs, but Bill Russell would have thrived in a pace-and-space system. Even though traditional guys like Wilt, Kareem, and Shaq would have difficulty guarding anyone in a small lineup, they would be far more effective at countering small lineups than any of today's centers because they would be truly unguardable by smaller players.

But we don't have any truly great centers today. Andre Drummond and Deandre Jordan are athletic, but they are limited offensively and can be forced out because they can't make a free throw. Marc Gasol is a plodder who fits the antithesis of pace-and-space in Memphis. Andrew Bogut is successful because he only plays half the time and is an extremely skilled passer, screener, and high-IQ help defender.

Nature abhors a vacuum, and with no dominant post players, the three-point revolution has come to full fruition. It's a new day. Even when a dominant post player eventually comes along, he'll have to play differently than in the past, attacking quickly in the post or passing out to the next guy in the chain. The days of dumping an entry pass to the big guy and letting him work his man down for a short shot or dunk are over. And as far as I'm concerned, this is a more fun and team-oriented way to play the game.

I do wonder if Sam would've come around to see the beauty and grace of it. His disdain for the three-point shot was deeply ingrained, and it would take more than a couple of years of success by the Spurs and Warriors for him to consider it anything more than a passing phase. But if the Celtics are to achieve championship-level success under Brad Stevens, it's clear that it will be using pace and space, and seeing Boston win a title that way would be the surest way to convert him.

Matty wrote:Bob...

It's what I love about Cow. When he takes a stand for something he stays stood.

Unless he's at his favorite restaurant Noodletown, then he sits down.

Matty wrote:Bob...

It's what I love about Cow. When he takes a stand for something he stays stood.

Matty,

If this was yoga he'd be in permanent 'Mountain' pose.

But if we were at Noodletown he'd demonstrate his flexibility and adapt to 'pigeon' pose.


bob

Outside wrote:Bob,

As a player, I would be a relic of the past today -- a back-to-the-basket, limited range center who relished controlling the paint and the boards on defense. I have a natural, almost visceral affinity for a guy like Rudy Gobert, so I'm not lying when I say that I completely understand where Cowens is coming from when he continues to see Gobert as a Eiffel Tower-sized missed draft opportunity. Gobert epitomizes the type of player that I was (though I fancy myself as better offensively and a much better passer).

But the game has changed in a revolutionary way. What's surprising is how long it's taken since the introduction of the three-point line for the revolution to truly take hold. I wonder if it would've happened a decade sooner if D'Antoni's Suns had been able to get past the Spurs and win a title (and they should've won it the year Robert Horry hip-checked Steve Nash into the scorer's table). But changed it has, and I don't think there's any turning back.

Pace-and-space is the way to truly exploit what the three-point line does to the game. I still think there's a place for big men to excel within that system, but they ideally would be able to defend outside of the key, run, and be a threat offensively. The fact that we don't have great centers today enhances the perception that centers are dinosaurs, but Bill Russell would have thrived in a pace-and-space system. Even though traditional guys like Wilt, Kareem, and Shaq would have difficulty guarding anyone in a small lineup, they would be far more effective at countering small lineups than any of today's centers because they would be truly unguardable by smaller players.

But we don't have any truly great centers today. Andre Drummond and Deandre Jordan are athletic, but they are limited offensively and can be forced out because they can't make a free throw. Marc Gasol is a plodder who fits the antithesis of pace-and-space in Memphis. Andrew Bogut is successful because he only plays half the time and is an extremely skilled passer, screener, and high-IQ help defender.

Nature abhors a vacuum, and with no dominant post players, the three-point revolution has come to full fruition. It's a new day. Even when a dominant post player eventually comes along, he'll have to play differently than in the past, attacking quickly in the post or passing out to the next guy in the chain. The days of dumping an entry pass to the big guy and letting him work his man down for a short shot or dunk are over. And as far as I'm concerned, this is a more fun and team-oriented way to play the game.

I do wonder if Sam would've come around to see the beauty and grace of it. His disdain for the three-point shot was deeply ingrained, and it would take more than a couple of years of success by the Spurs and Warriors for him to consider it anything more than a passing phase. But if the Celtics are to achieve championship-level success under Brad Stevens, it's clear that it will be using pace and space, and seeing Boston win a title that way would be the surest way to convert him.

outside very good post, glad theres somebody that can see there still is a place for a hard nosed defensive big, the type of player we don't have. I am more a historian and stat geeks can always look for ways to slant/find stats that back up their argument, I feel my eye test works for me. We will never really contend with a combo of Sully, KO, Zeller being our best 4-5's, some people are going to bring up more team rebounding crap/stats, but if anyone is happy and content with our center play as is going forward, they are dreamers and DELUSIONAL if they think what we got there will really take us to the championship status we all want. I would take Gobert, Favors and Lyles over our 3 that I just mentioned in a heartbeat, each one is not a SERIOUS defensive liability like KO and Zeller are. I can't belive there are board members with such rose colored green glasses on that are in denial or like watching Zeller and KO routinely get abused in the paint like ragdolls. I bleed green, but I'm not in denial, we need an upgrade at the 5.....enough said!!!!!

On the Suns, I really enjoyed watching Nash in his prime take the PG position to new heights back in the recent day....you know what they lacked, why with all the great passing and 3 point shooting that team still couldn't get over the hump? Not enough interior defense, they needed a Bogut/Ezeli type 5 to compliment Amare, especially on defense. They were ahead of their time and almost got there, just needed more size and toughness on the inside defensively. Even right now, take off Bogut and Ezeli and give GS Zeller and KO, guess what, they wouldn't win, they would have same problem as Suns.

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

Cowens,

Has anybody ever told you that you have an obsessive personality?  Perk is gone.  Gobert plays for someone else.  Get over it.

Utah is UP to .500 after beating the 2nd worst team in the NBA?  WOOHOO!!!  There's a statement game if I've ever seen one!!  Oh, wait a second, that means that before they beat the crappy Lakers they had a losing record.

Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

Gobert was drafted by Denver and then traded to Utah as part of a trade that brought Josef Nurkic to the Mile High City.  If you're pissed about not getting Gobert imagine what Nugget fans must be feeling?

In terms of the infamous +/- stat, for players >6'10", Gobert is 24th.  Maybe there are other factors besides rebounding and blocking shots that contribute to a team player helping the team win?   And the Jazz are celebrating getting their noses at .500.  Like scoring.  Gobert is averaging only 9.2ppg despite being the tallest guy on the court and playing 32 mpg.  Like assist-to-turnover ratios.  Gobert is 1.7 assists to 2.1 TOs/36mpg (girlie man Kelly Olynyk is 2.6 assists and 2.0 TOs/36mpg.  A POSITIVE number).  Like frito shooting.  Gobert is 58.1%.  Like 3pt shooting, to spread the floor.  Girlie man Kelly is shooting >40%.  Nobody even guards Gobert past 8'-10'.  Talk about clogging up the middle.  Our Carnival Cruise Ship, the S.S. Sullinger, can hang out around the dotted circle when Gobert is on top because, as long as he's out there, he is no threat to anybody.  If Gobert is setting a pick at the frito line or beyond he is effectively out of their offensive set.

Utah has the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA, behind the Sixers and the Lakers.  The rumors on draft day were that Utah was going to draft Kelly Olynyk with the 14th pick.  That's why Danny moved up from 16 to take him at 13.  Maybe if Utah had gotten Kelly they wouldn't have the 3rd worst offense in the league now.  You only view things through the prism of defense, but there are two sides to the ball and Kelly is a MUCH better offensive player than Gobert, not just in ppg and assists and lower TOs but in how he opens the floor for others.  Kelly can create offense for himself and others, Gobert cannot score unless it is spoon-fed to him.

How about last Wednesday, when Gobert and the Jazz played the Rockets and Gobert had 2 points on 1-7, 7 boards and zero blocks?  The Rockets have a pretty good center, as you know.  And then on Thursday, when the Jazz played OKC and Gobert had 2 points on 1-2, 6 boards and 1 block.  Put Gobert against legit centers and he struggles.  Put him against obsolete thunder lizard Roy Hibbert and the immortal Robert Sacre and he rebounds.  In fact, Gobert has only averaged 5.3ppg on 42% shooting in his last 10 games.  

Can't argue about Young.  I think people fell in love with him because he went to Kentucky.  And yes, I would have taken Hood over Young too.  He scored 30 last night against the Lackers but he's averaging 14.6ppg in 31mpg, so let's not make TOO much of a big deal about him having a good game against a team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.  He was 11-13 last night, 8-9 from 3, but he's shooting 42.3% on the year and 36.5% from 3.  Hmmm, is it possible some of his success last night, vs every other night, is because he was playing the Lackers?  The Lakers have the worst team +/- in the league.  In other words, the difference between their average offense minus their average defense is the #30 out of 30.  No wonder they got blown out by Utah, that's what has been happening all year!  They give up the 4th most points in the league while scoring the 2nd fewest!



bob


.

by the way bob Gobert missed almost 2 months of this season with a foot injury, I don't have the exact records of with him and without, but I'm pretty sure they are much better with him. Hood has just started to tap into his potential and is now getting regular starters minutes, earlier he was just finding his game and not getting the minutes he is getting now, he could be easily a 17-18 ppg scorer next year which is light years ahead of James Young, will he even be on a NBA roster next year? I got a hypothetical question for you, would you rather have Gobert and Hood on this years Celtics or KO and Young?



this one bob

I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

arambone wrote:I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

so if a KO-Sully combination doesn't work its on Sully the brute, like KO has no weaknesses or you seem to always choose to ignore them cause hes perfect for this era right bonehead?

bobheckler wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Jazz up to .500 with pummeling of Lakers, ahead of Dallas. Two guys that Ainge passed on had monster games, Gobert with 19 rebounds in like 27 minutes and Hood with 30 points in the first half....and we have girlie man KO, who was useless last night and Young. Imagine what Brad could do with Utah's roster? or if we had Gobert and Hood instead of KO and Young?

Cowens,

Has anybody ever told you that you have an obsessive personality?  Perk is gone.  Gobert plays for someone else.  Get over it.

Utah is UP to .500 after beating the 2nd worst team in the NBA?  WOOHOO!!!  There's a statement game if I've ever seen one!!  Oh, wait a second, that means that before they beat the crappy Lakers they had a losing record.

Here's another consideration:  the only real rebounders the Jazz have are Gobert and Favors.  So should it be surprising when the two of them get the lion's share of the Utah boards?  The Jazz are averaging 43.3 boards/game.  That's good for 18th in the league.  NOT very impressive.  Gobert is averaging 11.0/game and Favors is averaging 8.4/game.  That's 19.4 rebounds/game from 2 players, or 44.8% of Utah's total rebounding.  Are they such good rebounders, or are they rebounding because the rest of the team are shitty rebounders, or because everybody else boxes out and lets them go for the rebound because neither Gobert nor Favors run the floor well for bigs so why not use them to get the ball?  If you want to use stats to prove a point, fine, let's use them.  Btw, the Celtics, with girlie man Olynyk and softy Zeller, are 6th in the league in rebounding.  Care to do an analysis how many fast break points the duo of Gobert/Favors score vs how many Olynyk/Zeller do?  Do we have a player that is in the top 10 in rebounding?  No, but who gives a shit about a stat like that except for fantasy league players?

Gobert was drafted by Denver and then traded to Utah as part of a trade that brought Josef Nurkic to the Mile High City.  If you're pissed about not getting Gobert imagine what Nugget fans must be feeling?

In terms of the infamous +/- stat, for players >6'10", Gobert is 24th.  Maybe there are other factors besides rebounding and blocking shots that contribute to a team player helping the team win?   And the Jazz are celebrating getting their noses at .500.  Like scoring.  Gobert is averaging only 9.2ppg despite being the tallest guy on the court and playing 32 mpg.  Like assist-to-turnover ratios.  Gobert is 1.7 assists to 2.1 TOs/36mpg (girlie man Kelly Olynyk is 2.6 assists and 2.0 TOs/36mpg.  A POSITIVE number).  Like frito shooting.  Gobert is 58.1%.  Like 3pt shooting, to spread the floor.  Girlie man Kelly is shooting >40%.  Nobody even guards Gobert past 8'-10'.  Talk about clogging up the middle.  Our Carnival Cruise Ship, the S.S. Sullinger, can hang out around the dotted circle when Gobert is on top because, as long as he's out there, he is no threat to anybody.  If Gobert is setting a pick at the frito line or beyond he is effectively out of their offensive set.

Utah has the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA, behind the Sixers and the Lakers.  The rumors on draft day were that Utah was going to draft Kelly Olynyk with the 14th pick.  That's why Danny moved up from 16 to take him at 13.  Maybe if Utah had gotten Kelly they wouldn't have the 3rd worst offense in the league now.  You only view things through the prism of defense, but there are two sides to the ball and Kelly is a MUCH better offensive player than Gobert, not just in ppg and assists and lower TOs but in how he opens the floor for others.  Kelly can create offense for himself and others, Gobert cannot score unless it is spoon-fed to him.

How about last Wednesday, when Gobert and the Jazz played the Rockets and Gobert had 2 points on 1-7, 7 boards and zero blocks?  The Rockets have a pretty good center, as you know.  And then on Thursday, when the Jazz played OKC and Gobert had 2 points on 1-2, 6 boards and 1 block.  Put Gobert against legit centers and he struggles.  Put him against obsolete thunder lizard Roy Hibbert and the immortal Robert Sacre and he rebounds.  In fact, Gobert has only averaged 5.3ppg on 42% shooting in his last 10 games.  

Can't argue about Young.  I think people fell in love with him because he went to Kentucky.  And yes, I would have taken Hood over Young too.  He scored 30 last night against the Lackers but he's averaging 14.6ppg in 31mpg, so let's not make TOO much of a big deal about him having a good game against a team with one of the worst defenses in the NBA.  He was 11-13 last night, 8-9 from 3, but he's shooting 42.3% on the year and 36.5% from 3.  Hmmm, is it possible some of his success last night, vs every other night, is because he was playing the Lackers?  The Lakers have the worst team +/- in the league.  In other words, the difference between their average offense minus their average defense is the #30 out of 30.  No wonder they got blown out by Utah, that's what has been happening all year!  They give up the 4th most points in the league while scoring the 2nd fewest!



bob


.

and when the fock did I bring up Perk in my post?

cowens/oldschool wrote:

arambone wrote:I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

so if a KO-Sully combination doesn't work its on Sully the brute, like KO has no weaknesses or you seem to always choose to ignore them cause hes perfect for this era right bonehead?

Olynyk has the third best +/- per game on the team, despite only playing 20 mpg. The two years before that his +/- were either first or second on the team, I forget.

I'm not saying Olynyk doesn't have any weaknesses, and I seem to be higher on Sully than you. Together they make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA.

I'd even be content with Olynyk continuing to come off the bench next year, with Sully starting at center and an upgrade over Amir starting at PF. Maybe Al Horford.

I never said Sully must go and Olynyk has no flaws. Olynyk's biggest flaw is the same as Gobert's, manning up 280+ lb giants like Dwight Howard, the Lopez bros, Okafor, etc. Gobert wouldn't even solve that problem. And it's not even really a problem with Sully holding down the fort and Olynyk pulling them out of the paint, and outrunning them up and down the court.

If I didn't think Olynyk had any flaws, I wouldn't have suggested the Celtics draft two or three bigs in the first round.

arambone wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

arambone wrote:I wouldn't mind drafting 2 or 3 centers in the first round.

C/PF Poeltl in the high lottery
C Diamond Stone or AJ Hammons later
And one of the Euro centers in the first round too.

I don't think there's a Euro that can shoot the three like Jokic this year, but those big Europeans always seem to come over with size, toughness, IQ, and highly polished skill set. Adriatic League really seems to turn out a bunch of good nba centers:

Jokic, Nurkic, Pekovic, Vucivic, Antic, etc.

Olynyk's an elite backup center, but he could probably be an above average or elite starting power forward if he had a strong, mobile defensive center behind him. Sully is strong but not mobile enough for a KO/Sully starting combo to work, apparently.

Sully and Olynyk "make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA"???

I vehemently disagree.


so if a KO-Sully combination doesn't work its on Sully the brute, like KO has no weaknesses or you seem to always choose to ignore them cause hes perfect for this era right bonehead?

Olynyk has the third best +/- per game on the team, despite only playing 20 mpg. The two years before that his +/- were either first or second on the team, I forget.

I'm not saying Olynyk doesn't have any weaknesses, and I seem to be higher on Sully than you. Together they make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA.

I'd even be content with Olynyk continuing to come off the bench next year, with Sully starting at center and an upgrade over Amir starting at PF. Maybe Al Horford.

I never said Sully must go and Olynyk has no flaws. Olynyk's biggest flaw is the same as Gobert's, manning up 280+ lb giants like Dwight Howard, the Lopez bros, Okafor, etc. Gobert wouldn't even solve that problem. And it's not even really a problem with Sully holding down the fort and Olynyk pulling them out of the paint, and outrunning them up and down the court.

If I didn't think Olynyk had any flaws, I wouldn't have suggested the Celtics draft two or three bigs in the first round.

Sully and Olynyk "make a top 3-5 center tandem in the NBA"???

I strongly disagree.

cowens/oldschool wrote:outside very good post, glad theres somebody that can see there still is a place for a hard nosed defensive big, the type of player we don't have. I am more a historian and stat geeks can always look for ways to slant/find stats that back up their argument, I feel my eye test works for me. We will never really contend with a combo of Sully, KO, Zeller being our best 4-5's, some people are going to bring up more team rebounding crap/stats, but if anyone is happy and content with our center play as is going forward, they are dreamers and DELUSIONAL if they think what we got there will really take us to the championship status we all want. I would take Gobert, Favors and Lyles over our 3 that I just mentioned in a heartbeat, each one is not a SERIOUS defensive liability like KO and Zeller are. I can't belive there are board members with such rose colored green glasses on that are in denial or like watching Zeller and KO routinely get abused in the paint like ragdolls. I bleed green, but I'm not in denial, we need an upgrade at the 5.....enough said!!!!!

On the Suns, I really enjoyed watching Nash in his prime take the PG position to new heights back in the recent day....you know what they lacked, why with all the great passing and 3 point shooting that team still couldn't get over the hump? Not enough interior defense, they needed a Bogut/Ezeli type 5 to compliment Amare, especially on defense. They were ahead of their time and almost got there, just needed more size and toughness on the inside defensively. Even right now, take off Bogut and Ezeli and give GS Zeller and KO, guess what, they wouldn't win, they would have same problem as Suns.

Yeah, I'll always have a place in my heart for a tough, defensive center, and like I said, I think we're going through a phase now without any elite centers, no one truly great and dominating in the post. They will have to adapt their game compared to the old days, but there will always be a place for a player like that. We shall see someone like that again someday. I used to think Anthony Davis could be that guy, but he's too slight in the lower body, he's had durability issues (in four seasons, he's never played more than 68 games), and he's just not a power post player. Karl Anthony Towns looks pretty darn good. There will be someone to carry on in the mold of truly great big men.

I do have to disagree on what the Celtics need. Yes, an upgrade at center would help, but the Celtics main need is an elite perimeter scorer and playmaker, preferably a guy who is also good defensively. Plus another perimeter shooter to cash in the open looks that IT and Mr. New Elite Scorer-Playmaker can generate. I saw Buddy Hield play against Oregon, and I know it's only one game, but man, if he can do that on anything resembling a consistent basis, that was an exceptional performance. He made outside shots -- NBA-three distance shots, with guys closing out -- drove the ball, rebounded, and played D. I'd take him over Ben Simmons, who apparently has trouble shooting outside of 10 feet. An elite shooter makes the game so much easier for everyone else. Dragan Bender is another guy who sounds intriguing, but he's really young and would take a few years to develop. It will be interesting to see who Boston winds up with.