Marcus - Great defense - But his shooting - ugly is an understatement

Below link compares Smart with other players of the same age, same experience, that play outside and shoot at least 2  3 pointers per game. Read the header for the full list of conditions.

  http://bkref.com/tiny/DI2UI

    Smart ranks 40th out of 41 in eFG% but what stands out even more is the fact that 50.6% of his field goal attempts are from 3 point land. The league average is just 28.5% and super gunner Curry is firing 3's at a 55.4% clip and Thompson is at 46.9%. I realize that he is a very talented defensive player and that there is always hope that he will shoot his way to respectability - but boy has he got a long way to go. If he doesn't develop the "touch" to challenge Thomas and Bradley for a starting role in an NBA that is geared to scoring from the outside - perhaps he could move down the road a ways and hook up with the Patriots. He sure looks like a potential bruising running back to me.

  swish

I haven't watched any of the games so far, but I'm not hearing oohs and ahhs from all of you about his "new and improved" shooting mechanics.

#6 is a pretty high pick for a player who can only play one side of the ball.  Smart's defense is great, no argument there, but he isn't The Worm and if you aren't a defender of that caliber it's hard to crack the starting lineup.  And #6 is very expensive for a bench player.

Just like with every player, there is a clock ticking on Marcus Smart.  It ticks on bubble players like Young and Hunter, it ticks on future HOFers like Pierce and Garnett, and it ticks on players who are absolutely NBA players like Smart.  Players whose value to a team is being calculated and reset by GMs, scouts and coaches every game.  If Smart cannot prove that he can be a factor on offense then his value, to us and as a trade chip, goes down.  And Trader Danny is not one to sleep on assets of diminishing value.

This will be Smart's 3rd year.  To say it is a big one for him is a huge understatement.  He has at least one, maybe two, years left on his rookie contract after this one.  The clock is ticking.


bob


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Remember back when we were saying the same kind of things about Bradley? Yet Bradley has clearly improved his shooting every year since he came into the league. Marcus has had a lot put on his plate. He was asked and expected to be an elite defender and he has more than done that aspect of his role. He has been asked to be a facilitator. He is not that good. He doesn't handle the ball at an elite level. But he has improved in this area and is a serviceable back up to pg. He has been asked to score the ball at an NBA level. He is not even close to being there yet. Part of this as the fault of the Coach. He is supposed to put Marcus in a situation where he can succeed and that hasn't happened. Marcus isn't a pg and he can't shoot, but he can score. He should not be taking so many 3pt shots. Period! The last role is perhaps the most important. He is needed to be available in every game of an 82 game schedule plus playoffs. He can't stay on the court but about 70% of the time. It really doesn't matter what the reason is. The bottom line is he is needed to play not sit on the bench nursing his injuries. He's a tough kid. He can play in the NBA but this is his make or break season. He is good enough to be a part of a larger trade package that would improve the team. Otherwise he desperately needs his role to be redifined. He is not now, nor is he likely to be, a starting player in the NBA. But there is no reason he can't have a good and productive NBA career once he is put in the proper role.

Bradley was never as bad a shooter as Smart, certainly not over such extended minutes and he always had a better looking stroke. I like Smart and am certainly rooting for him , but his shooting is atrocious.This is the year for him to prove he can shoot, at least a little bit.

mulcogiseng wrote:Remember back when we were saying the same kind of things about Bradley? Yet Bradley has clearly improved his shooting every year since he came into the league. Marcus has had a lot put on his plate. He was asked and expected to be an elite defender and he has more than done that aspect of his role. He has been asked to be a facilitator. He is not that good. He doesn't handle the ball at an elite level. But he has improved in this area and is a serviceable back up to pg. He has been asked to score the ball at an NBA level. He is not even close to being there yet. Part of this as the fault of the Coach. He is supposed to put Marcus in a situation where he can succeed and that hasn't happened. Marcus isn't a pg and he can't shoot, but he can score. He should not be taking so many 3pt shots. Period! The last role is perhaps the most important. He is needed to be available in every game of an 82 game schedule plus playoffs. He can't stay on the court but about 70% of the time. It really doesn't matter what the reason is. The bottom line is he is needed to play not sit on the bench nursing his injuries. He's a tough kid. He can play in the NBA but this is his make or break season. He is good enough to be a part of a larger trade package that would improve the team. Otherwise he desperately needs his role to be redifined. He is not now, nor is he likely to be, a starting player in the NBA. But there is no reason he can't have a good and productive NBA career once he is put in the proper role.

 A number 6 pick and we might have to settle for a bench player? - not what I was hoping for - but I'll try to be optimistic and hope that he develops a shooting touch in the near future.
 Bradley at age 20 and 21 averaged .372% on his 3 point shots and a combined field goal percentage of .475% - quite impressive for a young player in his 1st and 2nd years.


  swish

Coming off the bench as a former #6 pick is fine, especially if you're backing up a borderline all star/DPOY candidate like Bradley, and especially if you can easily back up 3-4 positions on the court.

Also, not every draft is created equally. Look at the guys drafted after Smart.

7 Julius Randle looks like a Brandon Bass level bench guy on a non-tanking team
8 Nik Stauskas
9 Noah Vonleh. Who?
10 Elfrid Payton. He's a worse version of Smart without the versatility
11 Doug McDermott. Bench player if ever there was one


Smart would be an above average starter at 2, possibly 3 positions on most teams. Coming off the bench for his 30 mpg rather than starting for his 30 mpg doesn't mean much as far as his value to the team.

Is the clock ticking on Finals MVP Andre Iguadala because he comes off the bench behind Durant?

Was the clock ticking on IT4 when he was coming off the bench behind rookie Marcus Smart a couple years ago?

Smart would be a DPOY candidate just like Avery Bradley if Smart started. An elite defender doesn't need to shoot 35 or 40% from 3 to prove his worth as a player.

If Smart never emerges as a good 3 point shooter it doesn't mean a whole lot, and his value to the team is outstanding either way.

Calling Smart just a backup pg doesn't do him justice, not by a long shot. Not when he also plays SG and SF at a high level.

Smart simply needs to cut back on his 3 point attempts if his % isn't there, and he needs to continue attacking the rim with his ever improving ball handling and savvy.

Smart has arguably made a bigger impact on winning than any player in his draft class since he was drafted. Smart was expected to lead the tank after Rondo got traded, and instead rookie Smart helped lead us to the playoffs, and Smart and the team haven't looked back since.

I agree with everything rambone said, there have been plenty of players Adam Morrison, that Cavs pick, the tweener F can't even remember his name that were picked way higher and sucked really bad.....Smart impacts the game in many ways, his defense is necessary for the defensive identity of this team, AB as great as he is cannot handle as well some of the larger 2-3 swingmen that Smart physically can manhandle. AB's defense makes alot of impact, with Smart on the floor they make even more impact.

Marcus Smart is an important reason why the Celtics are contenders.

dboss

I am not worried about Smart's place on this team.

Great topic and very well informed posts as usual out here.

I agree with the basic premise that Smart needs to improve his shooting, but thought some of the early posts were too 'doom and gloom' for my tastes.

Glad to see arambone and cow saying what I would have said, much more eloquently that I could.

Every time Smart steps on the court, he makes an immediate impact. You put him out there with Bradley, Crowder, Brown and Horford and you have a very very good defensive team. I dont see him going anywhere any time soon.

And now we can all sit back and let the season unfold - opinions have been expressed and in about 7 months from now we should have a clearer picture as to Smart's contribution to the 2016-17 Celtics. And if his field goal percentages continue to rank at a very low level its likely that this topic will continue to create considerable discussion throughout the season.

swish

Much ado about nothing.   I seem to recall a particular starter from the early 70's that could not shoot a lick. His first 2 years in the league he didn't even come close to 40 % from the field.  And never got a whole lot better his entire Celtic career.  Don Chaney was a pretty good player.  Might not have won in 74 without his D.

Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen, and his defense is about equal, how much grit and value did we lose when TA left? I can't think of a better guard defender in the NBA, except Avery Bradley, this year both AB and MS could be starting first team all defensive.

Cow,

TA was voted toughest player in the NBA this year.  Someday I hope that Smart can take his place as toughest.

gyso

cowens/oldschool wrote:Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen, and his defense is about equal, how much grit and value did we lose when TA left? I can't think of a better guard defender in the NBA, except Avery Bradley, this year both AB and MS could be starting first team all defensive.

"Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen,"

Are you sure you want to stick with your above statement?

swish

I'll also agree with rambone's well thought out post.

When he was drafted, I thought Smart was our next All-Star 2-guard (not point).  That may or may not materialize, but his value to this team is undeniable.

I do see the potential that Smart and Brown may have very similar games.  That's fine, if so, in that they both should offer strong defense against multiple positions, and both can get to the rim and score.  We just need to focus on the need for shooting still, be it by draft, trade, or free agency.  Not that I would want to part with either, but if Smart and Brown do prove to be twin talents, it's conceivable one could be packaged in a deal that brings us shooting or a PF/C down the road.  Not likely a near-term event by any means, so it will be fun to watch both this season.

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen, and his defense is about equal, how much grit and value did we lose when TA left? I can't think of a better guard defender in the NBA, except Avery Bradley, this year both AB and MS could be starting first team all defensive.

 "Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen,"

  Are you sure you want to stick with your above statement?

  swish

I meant his offense is much better than TA's offense and defensively they are both pitbulls, about equal defensively to my eyes.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen, and his defense is about equal, how much grit and value did we lose when TA left? I can't think of a better guard defender in the NBA, except Avery Bradley, this year both AB and MS could be starting first team all defensive.

 "Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen,"

  Are you sure you want to stick with your above statement?

  swish

I meant his offense is much better than TA's offense and defensively they are both pitbulls, about equal defensively to my eyes.

Field goal percentage average for their 1st 2 years in the league.
Smart - .357
Allen - .473 ------ Allen's lifetime fg% is .477

Smart will have to have a big time improvement in his shooting touch - if he hopes to duplicate Allen's shooting percentages.

swish

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen, and his defense is about equal, how much grit and value did we lose when TA left? I can't think of a better guard defender in the NBA, except Avery Bradley, this year both AB and MS could be starting first team all defensive.

 "Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen,"

  Are you sure you want to stick with your above statement?

  swish

I meant his offense is much better than TA's offense and defensively they are both pitbulls, about equal defensively to my eyes.

 Field goal percentage average for their 1st 2 years in the league.
     Smart - .357
     Allen - .473 ------ Allen's lifetime fg% is .477

Smart will have to have a big time improvement in his shooting touch - if he hopes to duplicate Allen's shooting percentages.

  swish  

whos a better ball handler? passer? who can play point offensively for extended stretches helping the team? and who is an adventure with the ball, your just hoping he doesn't lose it or turn it over? Stats certainly don't always tell the whole story, TA might have a higher fg% than Kobe Bryant in certain years....and I really don't want to knock TA, hes one of my favorite players. TA for a decent part of his career was playing off the Big 3, he could get easy looks playing off those guys, Smart has to initiate the offense and even as a rookie had way more responsibility.

cowens/oldschool wrote:

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen, and his defense is about equal, how much grit and value did we lose when TA left? I can't think of a better guard defender in the NBA, except Avery Bradley, this year both AB and MS could be starting first team all defensive.

 "Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen,"

  Are you sure you want to stick with your above statement?

  swish

I meant his offense is much better than TA's offense and defensively they are both pitbulls, about equal defensively to my eyes.

 Field goal percentage average for their 1st 2 years in the league.
     Smart - .357
     Allen - .473 ------ Allen's lifetime fg% is .477

Smart will have to have a big time improvement in his shooting touch - if he hopes to duplicate Allen's shooting percentages.

  swish  

whos a better ball handler? passer? who can play point offensively for extended stretches helping the team? and who is an adventure with the ball, your just hoping he doesn't lose it or turn it over? Stats certainly don't always tell the whole story, TA might have a higher fg% than Kobe Bryant in certain years....and I really don't want to knock TA, hes one of my favorite players. TA for a decent part of his career was playing off the Big 3, he could get easy looks playing off those guys, Smart has to initiate the offense and even as a rookie had way more responsibility.

Looks like a wash to me - Allen is a non- ball handling guard - and Smart is a non shooting ball handling guard

swish

I am wondering if Marcus should focus on his mid-range game.  Coming around picks and taking 2 pointers instead of 3 pointers.  

I do not see a lot of similarities between Smart and Brown.  Brown has hops and Marcus does not.  Brown is faster than Smart.  Neither shoots well from deep.  

The narrative about Smart's shooting woos wil be a continuing topic for discussion.

dboss

swish wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen, and his defense is about equal, how much grit and value did we lose when TA left? I can't think of a better guard defender in the NBA, except Avery Bradley, this year both AB and MS could be starting first team all defensive.

 "Marcus Smart's offense is much better than Tony Allen,"

  Are you sure you want to stick with your above statement?

  swish

I have to agree that that statement was somewhat hyperbolic. Allen was a slasher who did a good job of finishing at the basket when he was a Celtic. He very rarely took a shot from beyond 15 feet, nor should he have. It`s true that he didn`t have the greatest handle , but he wasn`t launching bricks from the parking lot. I`m not convinced that Smart is his equal on defense either. Marcus is a strong, tough, hard-nosed player , but it`s imperative that he bring his shooting percentage up over 40. This isn`t the NFL. You have to play both ways in basketball.

bobheckler wrote:I haven't watched any of the games so far, but I'm not hearing oohs and ahhs from all of you about his "new and improved" shooting mechanics.

#6 is a pretty high pick for a player who can only play one side of the ball.  Smart's defense is great, no argument there, but he isn't The Worm and if you aren't a defender of that caliber it's hard to crack the starting lineup.  And #6 is very expensive for a bench player.

Just like with every player, there is a clock ticking on Marcus Smart.  It ticks on bubble players like Young and Hunter, it ticks on future HOFers like Pierce and Garnett, and it ticks on players who are absolutely NBA players like Smart.  Players whose value to a team is being calculated and reset by GMs, scouts and coaches every game.  If Smart cannot prove that he can be a factor on offense then his value, to us and as a trade chip, goes down.  And Trader Danny is not one to sleep on assets of diminishing value.

This will be Smart's 3rd year.  To say it is a big one for him is a huge understatement.  He has at least one, maybe two, years left on his rookie contract after this one.  The clock is ticking.


bob

Smart's floor is Tony Allen. Even at his floor he can handle the ball far better than Tony. So if his future is as an elite defensive player across 3 positions who won't kill you when asked to dribble a little (the way TA did) then he still can be considered worthy of pick #6. He's also a leader on and off the court who intimidates opponents and impresses his veteran teammates. 

Tony was 23 when Danny snatched him up with pick 25 in 2004. If that draft was re-done TA would go as high as #8 and not dip lower than #12. For a 20 year old with PG skills like Smart to be drafted 6th, when his floor is a SG like Tony Allen, that should hardly be a surprise.

The jury is still out on Smart and that entire draft. But after two seasons there are only 5-6 guys picked later I could see people even making an argument for wanting to have on the C's over Smart.

LaVine (13), Nurkic (16), Hood (23), Capela (25), Jokic (41) and Clarkson (46). 

Considering the last 4 guys on that list all could have been had at pick 17 instead of James Young, there is nothing wrong with Ainge's selection of Smart at pick 6 even if he doesn't improve at all, which would be strange because most 22 year old's tend to improve. 

I'd save the bitching and moaning about the 2014 draft for why the team doesn't have Rodney Hood or Clint Capela in their rotation right now instead of 15th man and the real wasted pick that year, James Young.

I can`t speak for anybody else, but I`m not complaining about the pick. I`m just saying that 36% shooting , over the course of a career is not going to be acceptable in today`s NBA ,  no matter how good a perimeter defender you are. Bruce Bowen , as well as being one of the dirtiest players who ever lived, was as good a defender as you could ask for, but he was cut loose by the Celtics and didn`t get much playing time until he developed a propensity for knocking down threes. Then he became a mainstay of championship Spurs teams. I hope and expect that Marcus Smart will find a way to increase his shooting percentage, but  his physicality , which seems to lead to fairly frequent injuries, won`t in my opinion, carry him for long unless he learns to score the basketball. I`m not asking for Avery Bradley shooting. Jae Crowder would suffice. Or Tony Allen , for that matter.