2016 Team Evaluation

The individual Player evaluation may not be fully understood unless it is integrated into a team evaluation.  With that in mind here are my thoughts about The Celtics team ending 2016.

The Celtics finished 2016 3rd in the East and 10th in the league with a record of 20-14.  Their home record of 8-6 is weak as compared to the other top 10 ten team and their road record of 12-8 is solid but not dominant as compared to the other top 10 teams.

Overall the Celtics are 10th in scoring and 15th in points allowed.

3 point shooting in the NBA has become the norm rather than the exception.  From a percentage standpoint, Boston is in the middle of the pack at .355%.  However they are ranked 4th in 3PA a 31.6

The San Antonio Spurs are the best 3 Point shooting team in the NBA at .407%   They have a judicious approach as they rank 29th in attempts.

The Celtics continue to be a very unselfish team as they rank 3rd in the NBA in assists per game at 24.9.  The high powered offense of Golden State sits at the top with 31.1 assists.

Last year the Celtics lead the league in FGA at 89 but are ranked 11th this year with 86.1.  Can you believe that the NY Knicks are #1 in shot attempts (89.9 per game)

The Celtic are ranked 28th in rebounding (tied with Sacramento)  They're 21st in offensive rebounding.

This team is still a work in progress.  There are a few things that are definitely within their control like shot selection, defensive rotations, and valuing possessions but the single black eye is the lack of quality rebounders from their front line.  This team can only go so far until they fix this glaring weakness.  This issue can only per addressed with improvements to the roster.  

What we do have however  is a very exciting Celtics team that will not quit.  In the great tradition of Celtics basketball they have exceeded the character of what team basketball is all about.  I also think that when you look ahead this team has significant assets at their disposal to practically do anything that they really want to do.

Boston may make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs this year and that would certainly mean that the team is better overall than last year.  Making it out of the first round is the least of what we want to see from the team.  Changes are coming and there are a lot of moving parts in play.  Here are a number of things that could happen over the next 18 months.

Celtics could move this year's Nets pick for a big or a veteran scorer along with enough contracts to make the deal work.  That player must be of starter quality if the nets pick is used.

They could make a similar deal but use Next year's Nets' pick instead and keep this year's pick.

Celtics could make a bigger deal for a top of the line player and move either IT, AB or Smart along with the Nets 2017 pick and expiring contract (s) or use the 2018 Nets pick instead of 2017.

The Celtics could extend Both IT and Bradley this summer and eliminate cap room to sign another max contract type player.    They could opt to retain and use the high Nets picks to continue to build the roster for the long haul while making a few minor trades and targeted free agent signings to improve the team.

I'm sure there are countless other possibilities.  These are just the ones that came to mind.  I do not know what the best course of action is.  We all know that even top picks take a while to develop and that overpaying for free agents can become a long term problem.

Danny Has actually down a great job in managing the roster.  Good job Danny.

dboss

Agreed

If we are going to sign FA's that are going to demand top dollar, I would only lay out those big bucks for FA's on the rise in the 24-26 range, similar to what the NY Giants did with their defense, which has been the best during the 2nd half of the season, because they signed 3 key young studs. Its not exactly easy to acquire those type of players, so I wouldn't mind playing out the draft picks we acquired from the Nyets. I have faith Jaylen Brown is just scratching the surface and will be growing into an all star caliber player, having picks this high for a legit 3rd best team in the EC has gotta be a good thing.

You are so right Cow.

worcester wrote:You are so right Cow.

I always am.

cowens/oldschool wrote:If we are going to sign FA's that are going to demand top dollar, I would only lay out those big bucks for FA's on the rise in the 24-26 range, similar to what the NY Giants did with their defense, which has been the best during the 2nd half of the season, because they signed 3 key young studs. Its not exactly easy to acquire those type of players, so I wouldn't mind playing out the draft picks we acquired from the Nyets. I have faith Jaylen Brown is just scratching the surface and will be growing into an all star caliber player, having picks this high for a legit 3rd best team in the EC has gotta be a good thing.

Cow I agree and I am always right about you being always right.

dboss

perhaps one of the biggest off-season concerns for Danny could be Kelly.

While many here seem to be willing to wave a quick good bye to the long haired canadian....Danny may or not be so quick to want to do so.

And while I have a higher regard for his game than perhaps most do, I do wonder what a young stretch 4-5 would garner on the open market. Perhaps too much for my liking....we shall see.

Like cowens, I would prefer to keep Brown and the Nets pick this year. I too think they will reap benefits down the road, perhaps elite ones.

that said...if Anthony Davis would like to come to town ......I would more than happy pat both on the back and say ...see ya in the funny papers!

not likely however.

perhaps i have too high a regard for our younger players.

With Amir , Young and Mickey likely gone next year, I see the roster spot for that Nets top 5 pick (shall I say #1 under my breath?) Zizic coming to town....and depending on how much Kelly cost...maybe another top level FA.


so a roster of say........

Horford
Zeller
Zizic
Ibaka- UFA signing?
Kelly- RFA
Jerebko-UFA
Crowder
Brown
Green- UFA
Bradley
Josh Jackson- Draft
Smart
Thomas
Rozier
Jackson

that's a roster that will scare the hell out of an aging Cleveland ball club I think

KDP59,
I like the look of that roster and I especially like the Josh Jackson speculation. I think he is the real deal and has the type of all around skills that would not only negate the need for maxing (overpaying?) Gordon Hayward or trading huge assets in quest of a possible Jimmy Butler/Paul George deal. Basically I'm saying that short of A. Davis or D. Cousins (both highly unlikely) I prefer to be patient and see what the Nets pick brings.

My biggest issue with Kelly Olynk is consistency. There are games where he looks like and up and coming superstar, shooting 3's, rebounding, playing decent, if not excellent defense. Then there are the stretches where he just disappears, leaving you wondering, where the heck does a seven footer with his talent go. And alot of times it is during big games.

He stretches the floor, and keeps the big men thinking about where the heck he is and what will he do next.

But, are we willing to wait until he is 30 to come of age?????? I just wonder what the thinking is. There are nights you just shake your head as he runs the floor, finding guys cutting to the basket, with perfect passes, hits those long three pointers, and rebound. I do not know where Danny is on this, and we never know until the end of the season.

My thinking is that if a good other stretch four is available in February, Kelly may be gone if it is the right guy. Who that is I do not know.

Again, as I said before, I wish I was a fly on Danny's wall in the next month or so.

Rosalie

RosalieTCeltics wrote:My biggest issue with Kelly Olynk is consistency.  There are games where he looks like and up and coming superstar, shooting 3's, rebounding, playing decent, if not excellent defense.  Then there are the stretches where he just disappears, leaving you wondering, where the heck does a seven footer with his talent go. And alot of times it is during big games.  

He stretches the floor, and keeps the big men thinking about where the heck he is and what will he do next.  

But, are we willing to wait until he is 30 to come of age??????  I just wonder what the thinking is. There are nights you just shake your head as he runs the floor, finding guys cutting to the basket, with perfect passes, hits those long three pointers, and rebound.  I do not know where Danny is on this, and we never know until the end of the season.

My thinking is that if a good other stretch four is available in February, Kelly may be gone if it is the right guy. Who that is I do not know.

Again, as I said before, I wish I was a fly on Danny's wall in the next month or so.

Rosalie

Rosalie

My thoughts exactly.  case in point...Last night he was all over the floor rebounding (7) defending, 2 block shots and a steal and getting his teammates shots with 3 assists.  His shooting was not good as he went 2/6.  If he can bring something to the table consistently then he may be a player to keep.

He is back to aiming the ball instead of just letting it flow.    This is a make or break year for him.  

dboss

Perhaps it's time to accept Kelly as simply a typical role player on this team. Soon to be 26 and in his 4th nba season it seems that what you see on a game to game basis now, is what the Celtics have been getting on a yearly basis for 3 plus years. While he could be an important part of the Celtics future - he is not their future.

swish

Swish KO is currently our top rotation guy coming off the bench.

From what I see we need to upgrade our front line if we are going to be more than just a competitive team.    The Celtics will need to upgrade that position regardless of whether or not they retain his services.    KO is a center who does not have the ability to play in the post.  An ideal upgrade should be able to play in the post and also run the high P and R plays and be able to execute the pick and pop or get to the rim.  

The Celtics have some athleticism at the 1,2 and 3.  Al provides some athleticism at the 4 or 5 depending on his assignment but that is pretty much it.  

There does not appear to be enough 4/5 prospects in the 2017 draft therefore the Celtics may only be able to upgrade the 4/5 through a trade or through free agency.  There are some really high end guards and wings coming out this year.  Since we already drafted Brown at the SF spot and IF the Celtics retains the 2017 Net's pick the next upgrade should target a scoring guard (yes another guard) Ideally a combo guard that can play point or off the ball would provide a lot of flexibility off the bench.  The player that may fill that requirement is Markelle Futz out of Washington.  He is a one and done player that entered college as a big time baller and has not disappointed.   He has been lighting it up averaging 22.2 PPG, 6.4 assist and 6.7 rebounds.  I always like players that display a toolbox full of skills.

dboss