20 Game Evaluation

20 games in and there is still no definitive proof that the Celtics are nothing more or nothing less than a .500 team.

If last year produced a lot of frustration for fans, this season looks all too familiar.

Any measure of continuity seems impossible to obtain.  Every game we are missing key guys.  This team does not have the level of quality depth that lets them win with key guys out.

We have seen a better overall defensive effort mainly because guys are playing harder and putting forth a more energetic effort.  I am less than thrilled with all the switching on defense because it seems to expose the team to too many mismatch situations.  Bigs checking smalls off the bounce and smalls trying to cover bigs is really not working.  Good teams know how to exploit those schemes.

I went into the season with high expectations about our offense.  Us fans only want and deserve to see games where the basic fundamentals of basketball are on display.  Pass the ball, move off the ball and look for the better shot.    Our assists per game are actually down YOY from 23.3 to 22.7 this season.  However the single biggest factor is how poor the team is shooting the ball, especially from behind the arc.  

Some of the dropoff was expected from my evaluation of players that were added like Richardson and Schroder but I did not expect to see Al shooting below 30% from deep 20 games in.  The big gun that takes the most 3 point shots is Jayson Tatum.  He has shot 32% for the year and during November he has shot 34.2%.  Tatum has a hero ball mindset.  He drifts in and out of the offense with his penchant to play ISO ball.  He takes way too many bad 3 point shots especially that step back 3 pointer that rarely goes in.  

Marcus Smart is the other one.  Although he reduced his 3PA in November to 4 per game it has done little to help this team.  At 29.8%  (Nov) he should rarely take the 3 pointer because he is going to miss way too often.  Marcus has made a case for 1st team all defense with his play so we do have that but we are losing too many games because we cannot score the basketball.

Hats off to the kids.  Grant Williams has made great strides and has turned into a reliable catch and shoot guy for us.  he still struggles to rebound against bigger opponents but at least you see an effort from him.  Romeo has also shot the deep ball well but appears quite limited offensively in other areas.  His defense has been good.  Nesmith and Pritchard, etc.....fill in the blanks.

Now on to the coach.  Ime has a system that he is trying to implement.  He has started to give Enes some rotation minutes.  This change was needed mostly because RW has been out.  When Enes is in the game there is less switching.  Overall our defense has been good provided the players keep their level of effort on the high side. In other words the biggest factor in our improved defensive play may be mostly related to energy and less reflective of schemes.

Offensively, Ime has not been able to get his team to consistently play the right way.  There is still way too much standing around on the perimeter.  At times the team forces things that are not there.  This team is offensively challenged because we lack consistent movement, passing and shooting.  You have to find other ways to score.  At first it appeared that we would be getting up and down and scoring off of fast break opportunities.  To date this team is 27th in the NBA in fast break points.  We are also 20th in PITP so clearly we are not getting quality two point attempts in the paint.  We are dead last in the NBA in 4th QTR points.  

Overall Ime looks like a rookie coach.  I am giving him a C grade or average grade because his team has been average through 20 games.  He has not been able to reel his star player in.  I am still waiting for him to try some two man action with JT and JB. Of course they do not share the ball with one another when they are positioned on opposite sides of the court.

With respect to the roster, Brad clearly did not add the right players to the mix.  It is hardly all of his fault.  Leftovers from the Ainge organization influenced his decision making.  

As we have yet to see a healthy roster, the ceiling for this team is unknown but they do not look like a contending team because they do not have enough quality offensive players.

NYCelt wrote:20 games is a little early to evaluate too much, but dboss gives his usual well-explained and thoughtful opinion.

So far I don't see a lot that I find unexpected.

The biggest pleasant surprises to me being the all-around play of Grant Williams and the level at which Al Horford has contributed.

I have a few opinions I'm still incubating and re-evaluating concerning Brown, RWIII, Nesmith, Pritchard and Langford. Those may be ready to hatch soon.

I think Ime Udoka needs a full season before any genuine evaluation can be offered.

NYCelt

I really do not think it is too early for an evaluation.  I was just looking at where the team is after the 1st QTR poll of the race.  This is certainly not a full season evaluation or meant to extrapolate any inference of what comes next.

We are well into the season and still do not have enough evidence that indicates we will be a deep playoff team.   I feel really good about our defensive effort as a team.   Our offense has been stuck on neutral and I do not know what has to happen to change that.  I'm looking at this team and realize that they need to tighten up several areas on offense but the main issue that I see comes down to shot making.   If this team does not improve their 3 point shooting they have little chance of going anywhere.  Unfortunately we have a few too many players on the team that have never been above average shooters.  I think if we track their 3 point shooting throughout the season it will pretty much coincide with their W/L record.  Or better still watch their effective field goal percentage.  

When the team hits the 40 games played mark,  I plan to look at another sample

To date the Celtics are 25th in the NBA in effective FG percentage at 50.2%

Ktron wrote:It is imperative that we find some shooters elsewhere.
I know his defense is a negative but I think we are trending positively in that area. Sign I.T., or find a way to obtain a Buddy Hield.
It’s obvious to me that at this juncture we have some players who were supposed to be great shooters but its beginning to look like thats not the case.

ktron

I.T. is not walking through the door.

I expected JT to shoot the ball much better. I expected Al to shoot the ball better. I did not expect great shooting percentages from either Dennis or Josh.

A guy like Hield would be great but how the heck do you construct a deal to get him? You would have to do a two for one deal or a 3 for 1 deal. (Hield for Nesmith, Hernangomez and Richardson) works on paper.

If Boston has a real appetite to spend some money they could look at adding a quality shooter using their larger TPE which is in the $17 million category.

I doubt they would do that unless we were in a situation where one more guy takes us to the top.

I actually think we are stuck in the middle, half way up and halfway down the light pole.