The Remaining 21

Records as of 2/25:

2/26 - Memphis (18-40, .310), 5-22 (.185) on road
2/28 - Charlotte (26-33, .441), 10-18 (.357) on road
3/3 - @ Houston (45-13, .776), 24-6 (.800) at home
3/5 - @ Chicago (20-39, .339), 13-17 (.433) at home
3/8 - @ Minnesota (37-26, .587), 25-7 (.781) at home - but they will be without Jimmy Butler
3/11 - Indiana (34-25, .576), 13-14 (,481) on road
3/14 - Washington (34-25, .576), 17-14 (.548) on road
3/16 - @ Orlando (18-41, .305), 11-17 (.393) at home
3/18 - @ New Orleans (32-26, .552), 16-12 (.571) at home - but now they are without Boogie, but Davis has been going crazy
3/20 - Oklahoma City (34-27, .557), 14-17 (.452) on road
3/23 - @ Portland (34-26, .567), 17-11 (.607) at home
3/25 - @ Sacramento (18-41, .305), 8-19 (.296) at home
3/26 - @ Phoenix (18-43, .295), 9-23 (.281) at home
3/28 - @ Utah (31-29, .517), 19-10 (.655) at home
3/31 - Toronto (41-17, .707), 17-12 (.586) on road
4/3 - @ Milwaukee (33-25, .569), 19-10 (.655) at home
4/4 - @ Toronto (41-17, .707), 24-5 (,823) at home
4/6 - Chicago (20-39, .339), 7-22 (.241) on road
4/8 - Atlanta (18-42, .300), 5-25 (.167) on road
4/10 - @ Washington (34-25, .576), 17-11 (.607) at home
4/11 - Brooklyn (19-41, .317), 8-20 (.286) on road

21 games in 44 days. 2 b2b.

9 games vs teams <.500
12 games vs teams >.500

9 home games, 12 road games.

Home games - 5 vs teams <.500, 4 vs teams >.500
Road games - 4 vs teams <.500, 5 vs teams >.500

Our home record = 21-11 (.677)
Our road record = 21-8 (.724)

Average record of teams playing on road (our home) = .367
Average record of teams at home (our road) = .521



bob



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bobheckler wrote:Records as of 2/25:

2/26 - Memphis (18-40, .310), 5-22 (.185) on road
2/28 - Charlotte (26-33, .441), 10-18 (.357) on road
3/3 - @ Houston (45-13, .776), 24-6 (.800) at home
3/5 - @ Chicago (20-39, .339), 13-17 (.433) at home
3/8 - @ Minnesota (37-26, .587), 25-7 (.781) at home - but they will be without Jimmy Butler
3/11 - Indiana (34-25, .576), 13-14 (,481) on road
3/14 - Washington (34-25, .576), 17-14 (.548) on road
3/16 - @ Orlando (18-41, .305), 11-17 (.393) at home
3/18 - @ New Orleans (32-26, .552), 16-12 (.571) at home - but now they are without Boogie, but Davis has been going crazy
3/20 - Oklahoma City (34-27, .557), 14-17 (.452) on road
3/23 - @ Portland (34-26, .567), 17-11 (.607) at home
3/25 - @ Sacramento (18-41, .305), 8-19 (.296) at home
3/26 - @ Phoenix (18-43, .295), 9-23 (.281) at home
3/28 - @ Utah (31-29, .517), 19-10 (.655) at home
3/31 - Toronto (41-17, .707), 17-12 (.586) on road
4/3 - @ Milwaukee (33-25, .569), 19-10 (.655) at home
4/4 - @ Toronto (41-17, .707), 24-5 (,823) at home
4/6 - Chicago (20-39, .339), 7-22 (.241) on road
4/8 - Atlanta (18-42, .300), 5-25 (.167) on road
4/10 - @ Washington (34-25, .576), 17-11 (.607) at home
4/11 - Brooklyn (19-41, .317), 8-20 (.286) on road

21 games in 44 days.  2 b2b.

9 games vs teams <.500
12 games vs teams >.500

9 home games, 12 road games.

Home games - 5 vs teams <.500, 4 vs teams >.500
Road games - 4 vs teams <.500, 5 vs teams >.500

Our home record = 21-11 (.677)
Our road record = 21-8 (.724)

Average record of teams playing on road (our home) = .367
Average record of teams at home (our road) = .521

bob

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Bob

A challenging 21 game schedule. Thanks for digger deeper in the numbers.

As we can see Boston has still one of the top road records in the NBA. Just slightly behind GSW and Houston.

We need to get Baynes back to have a full compliment of players. We need his defense. Otherwise, the Celtics head around the final quarter of the season with a very deep rotation. While injuries have stymied cohesiveness it has also provided playing time throughout the rotation. If they play intense defense they can win most of those games. That is the key. Over the past 10 games Boston's offense is 106 PPG. That includes 4 losses. Defensively they are giving up 105. The defense has not been a bright spot. Even with the return of Smart, both wins, the defense has given up an average of 105 points. They have enough depth to press more. We need more on the ball defensive pressure and more of the ball denial.

Sean Grande @SeanGrandePBP
about 1 hour ago
In honor of Max's favorite stat: With the Pistons' loss this afternoon, and 21 games to play, the Celtics' magic number to clinch...

A 4th straight playoff spot: 9

Home court in Round 1: 16

Home court in Round 2: 17

Home court through the East Finals: 23


reply retweet like


bob
MY NOTE: To add a little focus and goal to this exercise.


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23 wins in final 21 games

I understand why that is though, Toronto currently ahead.

I want sixty wins or very close to that. There are only two back to back games left. There is one with Toronto but not until April. The 25th and 26th of March are against Sacramento and Phoenix. The Sac game has a 6:00 start, Phoenix at 10. They are scrub teams and there are four extra hours.

There are still a bunch of tough or competitive games remaining. To me fifty wins is a pretender, 60 a contender. That's my barometer test for post-season confidence. And to remain healthy. There are a lot of road games. The Celtics will need to kick it up a gear and knock on wood for no injuries. The schedule does look somewhat intimidating.

The anti-magic number is 4. Do not reach that many losses for sixty wins.

Phil

17-3  will be a tough make.  IT would be up there with the 16-2 run to start the season.  I do not care how many games they win.

I just want them to win the East and then get into the Championshp Series and the win it.

dboss wrote:Phil

17-3  will be a tough make.  IT would be up there with the 16-2 run to start the season.  I do not care how many games they win.

I just want them to win the East and then get into the Championshp Series and the win it.

You are probably correct. Avoiding injuries without getting rusty is the true goal.

I am not sure Boston will beat Cleveland or Toronto. If they lose to anyone else in the East, that'll be disappointing. I also am not sure Toronto or Cleveland can beat Boston, so it should be a good playoffs regardless if Golden State destroys whomever they face.

Phil Pressey wrote:

dboss wrote:Phil

17-3  will be a tough make.  IT would be up there with the 16-2 run to start the season.  I do not care how many games they win.

I just want them to win the East and then get into the Championshp Series and the win it.

You are probably correct. Avoiding injuries without getting rusty is the true goal.

I am not sure Boston will beat Cleveland or Toronto. If they lose to anyone else in the East, that'll be disappointing. I also am not sure Toronto or Cleveland can beat Boston, so it should be a good playoffs regardless if Golden State destroys whomever they face.

I am very confident that Boston can win series against every team in the East except Toronto and Cleveland.

I would feel better when Boston can win on the road against them.  They have one more crack at Toronto on the road and one at home. They are done with the Cavs.  Boston will probably get a matchup with one of them.  Home court over Toronto would be nice.

Boston does look different.  Mainly their offense is starting to click Big time.  I think the youngsters are better now than during the 16-2 run. The only player that may have hit his rookie ceiling is Tatum.  

Everyone else looks better (Brown, Rozier and Theis)
look better.  Smart looks better on offense.  His stoke looks much tighter.  Morris has found his role and is a solid scorer.  He is past his comfort level now.  Baynes makes the team more physical and if he can continue to play well on defense and hit those 12 footers it takes a lot of pressure off the team.  I think he is also playing better.

No need to mention our two Allstars.  But I will say that Kyrie looks even more unstoppable.  Ridiculous talent...unreal ability to make unmakeable shots.

swedeinestonia wrote:23 wins in final 21 games

I understand why that is though, Toronto currently ahead.

It’s not 23 wins.  

It’s a combination of our wins and loses by other top teams.

If we win our final 21 games Toronto needs to lose 2.  21+2 is where you get the magic number 23.


beat

Dboss, thanks for the reply. We are on the same page. The offense looks better and not just because of the opponents. The game at Houston and the two against Toronto should be special. I personally think Tatum is doing fine. Imho, it was more of a team rut and adjusting to an injured finger. He is extremely young, so it would be all mental on his part if there is really a rookie wall. Horford is the old man in comparison. Please Brad, try to preserve Al so he fresh for the playoffs.

I think what happened is Tatum is too young to push his role. Brown is on the cusp of greatness. Maybe Tatum by the end of next year will be great. The best great thing about this season is that Al and Kyrie are automatic check marks for greatness. Yet, there is no margin left for injuries without Hayward. There is just enough time for them to put it all together for the playoffs.

Smart embarrassed the Beard in the last game. That could be an outstanding match-up to scout. To me, this is all a relief coming out of the break. Win or lose on Saturday, I expect a great effort. Houston will have to earn the win. They are on a huge winning streak and ahead of GS in the standings. This is a must-see game. Then at Toronto, you're right, let's see how they do. There are plenty of road games left. There are a few barometers still in play for the final quarter of the regular season.

An update.



3/25 - @ Sacramento (24-49, .329), 13-23 (.361) at home
3/26 - @ Phoenix (19-54, .260), 9-27 (.250) at home
3/28 - @ Utah (41-32, .562), 24-12 (.667) at home
3/31 - Toronto (54-19, .740), 24-13 (.649) on road
4/3 - @ Milwaukee (38-34, .528), 22-15 (.595) at home
4/4 - @ Toronto (54-19, .740), 30-6 (.833) at home
4/6 - Chicago (24-48, .333), 9-26 (.257) on road
4/8 - Atlanta (21-52, .288), 6-30 (.167) on road
4/10 - @ Washington (40-32, .556), 20-16 (.555) at home
4/11 - Brooklyn (23-50, .315), 9-26 (.257) on road


4 home, 6 away.  And one of the home games is vs Toronto.

5 vs teams >.500, 5 vs teams <.500.  

Two b2bs.  One is vs 2 teams that are both <.500 and the other is vs 2 teams that are both >.500.


The Magic Number for the #2 spot is 5 (wins + Cleveland losses).  The Magic Number for the #4 spot (homecourt advantage in the 1st round) is 3 (wins + Indiana losses)


bob


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Updated as of 11:15 EDT, 3/27:

3/28 - @ Utah (42-32, .568), 24-12 (.667) at home
3/31 - Toronto (55-20, .733), 24-13 (.649) on road
4/3 - @ Milwaukee (39-34, .534), 23-15 (.605) at home
4/4 - @ Toronto (55-20, .733), 31-7 (.816) at home
4/6 - Chicago (24-50, .324), 9-28 (.243) on road
4/8 - Atlanta (21-53, .284), 6-31 (.158) on road
4/10 - @ Washington (41-33, .554), 21-17 (.552) at home
4/11 - Brooklyn (23-51, .311), 9-26 (.257) on road

4 Home, 4 Away

5 vs team >.500, 3 vs teams <.500

1 b2b, both teams >.500

Cleveland lost tonight, so the Magic Number to clinch the #2 spot is now 2.


bob



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With 7 games remaining the Celtics may very well limp into the playoffs.

However with a healthy Horford and Morris the Celtics will still be a tough out for every team.  I have seen enough to convince myself that they will surprise the hell out of us in the playoffs.  

If they are somehow able to get Smart and Irving back they could make a run to the title

With Brown, Tatum and Rozier all playing extremely well they can still score and defend.  These next seven games are vital for guys like Larkin, Semi, Nadar and Yabuselle to established themselves.