Re: Teams To Watch

by **dboss** Fri Jan 04, 2019 4:59 pm

bobheckler wrote:Here's the deal:

If 2019 Memphis pick is Top 8 Protected (i.e. 9-30), it belongs to Boston. If it is 1-8 then the pick rolls forward to 2020 and is Top 6 Protected (i.e. 7-30 goes to Boston). If Memphis' first round pick in 2020 is 6 or higher then it rolls forward one more year to 2021 and is completely unprotected.

Memphis is the 9th oldest team in the NBA as of the start of the season. That average is affected by Vince Carter, but he can't drag it TOO far down single-handedly. (Boston is the 18th oldest, 12th youngest). The top players on Memphis are Marc Gasol (33 years old, $25.5M/year through 2020) and Mike Conley (31 years old, will be making >$30M through the 2021 season. $34.5M in 2021, virtually guaranteeing he is untradeable). Furthermore, Chandler Parsons will be making $25M/year through 2020 and, coupled with his chronic injuries, is absolutely untradeable. He's 30 years old and has played a total of 46 minutes this year, a grand total of 1432 minutes in almost 2 1/2 years in Memphis.

Rumor is that Omri Casspi and teammate Garrett Temple fought in the locker room after the Detroit loss.

As of 1/3/19 Memphis is in the #13 with just 2 1/2 games separating them from 8th (which is where we roll forward to next year)

Lottery Seed.....Team..................Record...........GB
14...................Sacto..................19-18............-
13...................Memphis............18-19...........1
12...................Dallas.................18-19............1
11...................Utah...................18-20............1 1/2
10...................Brooklyn..............18-21...........2
9....................Orlando...............17-20............2
8....................Minnesota............17-21............2 1/2

bob

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Bob i could have sworn I seen Vince in a Hawks Jersey.

The Memphis pick looks more valuable than the Sacto pick.. If for some reason it rolled over to 2020 that would be fine with me and it would enhance the value of trading that pick but after watching them play they just do not look like a top 8 team in the West. Neither the Kings nor the Grizzlies have anything to gain from losing. One team cannot score and the other team cannot defend. Both are sporting a negative differential.

by **bobheckler** Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:11 pm

Updated as of early 1/5/19: Some new names (Detroit replaces Bklyn) and the race tightens at the top.

Lottery Seed.....Team..................Record...........GB
14.....................Sacto..................19-19............-
13.....................Utah...................18-20............1/2
12....................Memphis............18-20............1
11.....................Dallas.................18-20............1
10.....................Detroit................17-19............1 1/2
9......................Minnesota............17-21...........1 1/2
8......................Orlando...............17-21............2

January 5th games
Utah @ Detroit (GO UTAH!!)
Dallas @ Philly (Ugh. This will be ugly)
Memphis @ San Antonio (GO POP!)
GSW @ Sacramento (GSW pissed off they lost to Houston? I sure hope so. GO DUBS!!!)

bob

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by **bobheckler** Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:30 am

Updated as of early 1/6/19: Memphis is now statistically tied with the #10 seed and Sacramento, which is on a 3-game losing streak, is only 2 games ahead of #7.

Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB
14.....................Utah...................20-20...........-
13.....................Sacto.................19-20...........1/2
12.....................Memphis............18-21...........1 1/2
11.....................Dallas.................18-21............1 1/2
10.....................Minnesota...........18-21............1 1/2
9......................Detroit................17-19............1 1/2
8......................New Orleans........18-22............2
7......................Orlando...............17-21............2 1/2

Relevant January 6th games:
Lakers @ Minnesota (GO MINNY!)
Orlando @ Clippers (LET'S SEE SOME MAGIC!)

bob

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by **dboss** Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:44 am

Bob starting to be concerned that Memphis may be too bad, lol. Next year the pick could be more valuable followed by the next year (unprotected)

by **bobheckler** Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:57 am

dboss wrote:Bob starting to be concerned that Memphis may be too bad, lol. Next year the pick could be more valuable followed by the next year (unprotected)

dboss,

We can't lose with the Memphis pick. As you point out the protections get less and less onerous and they are an aging team due for a rebuild. We need Sacto to really hit the skids. The good news is that the distance between 13 and 7 isn't that far, not even for bad teams like these. I think our bigger problem is that Sacto and Memphis have no incentive to tank in the last month of the season since they don't own their first round picks. Their players will be fighting for their jobs next year and will continue to play hard, if not well, while their peers have an out.

bob

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by **bobheckler** Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:05 pm

Tom Westerholm @Tom_NBA
about 31 minutes ago
The Celtics would also be in a complicated situation if all of the picks conveyed this year. 1) Imagine having to carve out roster space/playing time on this team for four (!!) rookies and 2) it’s tough to get fair trade value when teams know you need to consolidate picks.

Adam Himmelsbach @AdamHimmelsbach
about 44 minutes ago
Quietly been a very nice stretch for the Celtics’ draft picks: The Grizzlies have lost 5 in a row and the Kings have lost 4 straight.

bob

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by **cowens/oldschool** Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:59 pm

I definitely like Al sharing the 5 spot with Williams and Baynes and spending more time as a PF with Theis. I know Morris is having a good year, but his defense as a big can be exploited, especially in the paint. My starting lineup going forward would be:

C Baynes/Williams
PF Horford
SF Tatum
SG Brown
PG Kyrie

by **cowens/oldschool** Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:01 pm

dboss wrote:Bob thanks for the update.

Gafford looks like a traditional low post center. I actually think
Charles Bassey would be a better fit. He seems to have more offensive skills.

Morant is a turnover machine at PG and a poor shooter.

Danny has his priorities and he is very unpredictable. If I was making the call and since there are no really superior PG's in this draft I think I would go big if a stretch 5 can be had.

Knowing Danny he will draft 3 more wings.

But with Morris and Rozier likely heading out the door and considering their roles it seems logical that replacements at PF and PG would be a priority. Could Boston get by at the big forward spot by rotating a combination of Tatum, Hayward, Semi and/or Yabusele?

Could they just start Theis at PF? Or would they consider moving AH to his natural PF position and start Williams at center next season?

Maybe Wannamaker plays more next year. That would give you Irving, Smart and him for point guard duties.

These possibilities open the door for Danny to go after the best available player and combine a couple of picks to make that happen.

Last post was meant to respond to this post....

by **bobheckler** Wed Jan 09, 2019 9:36 am

Updated as of early 1/9/19: Logjam at the top! Sacto on a 3 game losing streak, including a loss last night to Phoenix without Booker. They have a 3 game homestand and then 6 on the road (thanks steve3344 for that info).

Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB
14.....................Utah...................20-21...........---
13.....................Sacto.................20-21...........---
12.....................Minnesota...........20-21............---
11.....................New Orleans........19-22............1
10.....................Memphis...........18-22............1 1/2
9......................Dallas.................18-21............1 1/2
8......................Detroit................17-21............2
7......................Orlando...............17-23............3

Relevant January 9th games:
San Antonio @ Minnesota (GO MINNY! 14-6 @ home)
Cleveland @ New Orleans (How about some Cavalier Etouffee?)
Phoenix @ Dallas (Dallas with a 3 game losing streak, 3-7 last 10, but 15-4 @ home)
Orlando @ Utah (Orlando on a long west coast road trip)

bob

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by **bobheckler** Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:05 pm

Brian Robb @BrianTRobb
about 1 hour ago
Memphis just lost key bench wing Dillon Brooks (toe) for the year, have lost six straight games and their upcoming January schedule including HOU, SA, MIL, TOR and BOS.

bob

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by **dboss** Wed Jan 09, 2019 4:27 pm

bobheckler wrote:Brian Robb @BrianTRobb
about 1 hour ago
Memphis just lost key bench wing Dillon Brooks (toe) for the year, have lost six straight games and their upcoming January schedule including HOU, SA, MIL, TOR and BOS.

bob

.

The top 8 protected pick is looking more and more unlikely. Next year top 6 and then unprotected. Overall this is a very valuable pick.

by **bobheckler** Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:06 am

Updated as of early 1/10/19:

Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB
14.....................Utah...................21-21...........---
13.....................Sacto................20-21............1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........20-21............1/2
11.....................New Orleans.......20-22............1
10.....................Memphis...........19-22............1 1/2
9......................Dallas.................19-22............1 1/2
8......................Detroit................17-22............2 1/2
7......................Orlando..............17-24............3 1/2

Relevant January 9th games:
Detroit @ Sacto

bob

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by **bobheckler** Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:04 am

Updated as of early 1/12/19: Dallas beat Minny (Luka is becoming legend) and Utah beat the Lakers.

Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB
14.....................Utah...................22-21...........---
13.....................Sacto................21-21...........1/2
12.....................New Orleans.......20-22............1 1/2
11.....................Dallas.................20-22...........1 1/2
10.....................Minnesota...........20-22...........1 1/2
9.......................Memphis...........19-22............2
8......................Detroit................17-23............3 1/2
7......................Washington.........18-25............4

Relevant January 12th & 13th games:
Memphis (8-13 away) @ Miami (10-12 @ home)
New Orleans (5-16 away) @ Minnesota (14-7 @ home)
Chicago (5-16 away) @ Utah (10-8 @ home)
Charlotte (5-14 away) @ Sacramento (12-10 @ home)

Toronto (14-8 away) @ Washington (13-7 @ home)
GSW (11-8 away) @ Dallas (16-4 @ home)

bob

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by **bobheckler** Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:04 pm

Updated as of early 1/13/19:

Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB
14.....................Utah...................23-21...........---
13.....................Sacto................22-21...........1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........21-22...........1 1/2
11.....................Dallas.................20-22...........2
10.....................New Orleans.......20-22............2 1/2
9.......................Memphis...........19-23...........3
8......................Detroit................18-23............3 1/2
7......................Orlando.........18-24.................4

Relevant January 13th games:

Toronto (14-8 away) @ Washington (13-7 @ home)
GSW (11-8 away) @ Dallas (16-4 @ home)

bob

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by **bobheckler** Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:15 am

Updated as of early 1/14/19:

Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB
14.....................Utah...................23-21...........---
13.....................Sacto................22-21...........1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........21-22...........1 1/2
11.....................New Orleans.......20-23............2 1/2
10.....................Dallas.................20-22...........2 1/2
9......................Memphis...........19-23............3
8......................Orlando..............19-24............3 1/2
7......................Detroit................18-23...........3 1/2

Relevant January 14th games:

Memphis (8-14 away) @ Houston (15-6 @ home)
Pistons (7-13 away) @ Utah (11-8 @ home)
Portland (8-11 away) @ Sacto (13-10 @ home)
New Orleans (5-17 away) @ LAC (14-7 @ home)

bob

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by **cowens/oldschool** Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:49 am

IMHO Timberwolves, Utah and Pelicans will all finish with better record than Sacramento as they all have better players and will eventually find their way.

by **dboss** Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:56 am

cowens/oldschool wrote:IMHO Timberwolves, Utah and Pelicans will all finish with better record than Sacramento as they all have better players and will eventually find their way.

I agree. But those Kings are a high energy young group that love to run. Timberwolves have a new coach, Utah plays too slow and the Pelicans are playing out of fear.

These picks are really coming into focus.

by **cowens/oldschool** Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:19 pm

dboss wrote:
cowens/oldschool wrote:IMHO Timberwolves, Utah and Pelicans will all finish with better record than Sacramento as they all have better players and will eventually find their way.

I agree. But those Kings are a high energy young group that love to run. Timberwolves have a new coach, Utah plays too slow and the Pelicans are playing out of fear.

These picks are really coming into focus.

Top 2 players on each of those teams are better than top 2 on Kings....

by **bobheckler** Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:08 pm

Updated as of early 1/17/19: Memphis is currently below the threshold for them conveying their pick to us this year. The gap between Sacto and the teams below it has lengthened, which is not good for us.

Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB
14.....................LA Lakers............24-21...........---
13.....................Sacto................23-21...........1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........21-23...........2 1/2
11.....................New Orleans.......21-24............3
10.....................Dallas................20-24............3 1/2
9......................Detroit................19-24...........4
8......................Orlando..............19-25............4 1/2
7......................Memphis...........19-25............4 1/2

Relevant January 17th games:

Sacto (9-11 away) @ Charlotte (14-8 home)
Lakers (9-12 away) @ OKC (14-6 home)

bob

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by **dboss** Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:27 pm

Can you believe it. Memphis really stinks. Still it projects out to a valuable draft asset next year or 2021.

Sacto is a young feisty bunch sort of like Brooklyn. They are still a lotto team but that pick will not be great.

by **tjmakz** Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:56 pm

The Kings might not be a lottery team for too long, based on the way the Clippers are playing.
LA has lost 4 in a row (giving up 120 ppg in those 4 games).
Next up, the Clippers play GS then go on the road for 4 games.

It looks like Memphis could finish with the 6th or 7th worst record this season.
Only 1 of Memphis next 14 games is against the worst 5 teams.
If Gasol is traded Boston's chance at the Memphis pick will be gone.

by **bobheckler** Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:22 pm

tjmakz wrote:The Kings might not be a lottery team for too long, based on the way the Clippers are playing.
LA has lost 4 in a row (giving up 120 ppg in those 4 games).
Next up, the Clippers play GS then go on the road for 4 games.

It looks like Memphis could finish with the 6th or 7th worst record this season.
Only 1 of Memphis next 14 games is against the worst 5 teams.
If Gasol is traded Boston's chance at the Memphis pick will be gone.

TJ,

"If Gasol is traded Boston's chance at the Memphis pick will be gone."

Only for this year. Next year we still own it and it will only be Top 6 protected instead of Top 8 like this year. If they suck next year too then the pick is completely unprotected. So what we'd like is for them to go on a 2 1/2 year swoon.

bob

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by **tjmakz** Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:29 pm

bobheckler wrote:
tjmakz wrote:The Kings might not be a lottery team for too long, based on the way the Clippers are playing.
LA has lost 4 in a row (giving up 120 ppg in those 4 games).
Next up, the Clippers play GS then go on the road for 4 games.

It looks like Memphis could finish with the 6th or 7th worst record this season.
Only 1 of Memphis next 14 games is against the worst 5 teams.
If Gasol is traded Boston's chance at the Memphis pick will be gone.

TJ,

"If Gasol is traded Boston's chance at the Memphis pick will be gone."

Only for this year. Next year we still own it and it will only be Top 6 protected instead of Top 8 like this year. If they suck next year too then the pick is completely unprotected. So what we'd like is for them to go on a 2 1/2 year swoon.

bob

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Yes, top 6 protected in 2020, then not protected in 2021.
If it was my team, I would be hoping for a #9 or #10 pick now, especially for trade purposes.
2021 is a long way off.
Unless Memphis pulls a Sacramento and over-performs next year or the year after, it will be a pretty significant pick for Boston.

by **dboss** Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:22 pm

tjmakz wrote:
bobheckler wrote:
tjmakz wrote:The Kings might not be a lottery team for too long, based on the way the Clippers are playing.
LA has lost 4 in a row (giving up 120 ppg in those 4 games).
Next up, the Clippers play GS then go on the road for 4 games.

It looks like Memphis could finish with the 6th or 7th worst record this season.
Only 1 of Memphis next 14 games is against the worst 5 teams.
If Gasol is traded Boston's chance at the Memphis pick will be gone.

TJ,

"If Gasol is traded Boston's chance at the Memphis pick will be gone."

Only for this year. Next year we still own it and it will only be Top 6 protected instead of Top 8 like this year. If they suck next year too then the pick is completely unprotected. So what we'd like is for them to go on a 2 1/2 year swoon.

bob

.

Yes, top 6 protected in 2020, then not protected in 2021.
If it was my team, I would be hoping for a #9 or #10 pick now, especially for trade purposes.
2021 is a long way off.
Unless Memphis pulls a Sacramento and over-performs next year or the year after, it will be a pretty significant pick for Boston.

TJ not so sure a #9 or 10 pick this year is really more valuable than a definite pick in 2 years. Look how long it took Boston to cash in on the Nets picks.

by **kdp59** Fri Jan 18, 2019 7:44 am

I agree dboss.

especially with the Kings ready to do a deep dive in the standings .

I still hope for a top 10 pick from them, and the Clippers pick I think we get this year as well.

3 picks is more than enough for this year, so Danny will need to draft and stash or trade one for a future pick, IMO.

getting the Memphis pick next year will be just fine for me.

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