Teams To Watch

Updated as of early 1/17/19:  Memphis is either tied for 8th or in 7th.  Because they are in separate conferences they are not ordered by who owns the tie breaker. Either way they are below the threshold we need to get their pick this year. Next year it is only Top 6 protected.


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................Utah...................25-21...........---
13.....................Sacto................23-22............1 1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........21-23...........3
11.....................New Orleans.......21-24............3 1/2
10.....................Dallas................20-24............4
9......................Detroit................19-24...........4 1/2
8......................Orlando..............19-25............5
7......................Memphis...........19-25............5


Relevant January 17th games:

Memphis (8-15 away) @ Boston (16-5 home)
Miami (10-9 away) @ OKC (12-10 home)
Brooklyn (11-12 away) @ Orlando (12-11 home)
San Antonio (8-14 away) @ Minnesota (15-7 home)
Cleveland (4-19 away) @ Utah (12-8 home)
New Orleans (6-18 away) @ Portland (10-7 home)



bob



.

Updated pre-game times 1/19/19: Memphis is trying to give us this pick this year and put it behind them but they are sinking fast in the standings. They play Toronto tonight, 2nd game of a b2b. Sacramento, which is the team we really want to tank, is holding up.


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................LA Clippers..........24-21...........---
13.....................Sacto.................23-22...........1
12.....................Minnesota...........21-24............3
11.....................New Orleans.......21-25............3 1/2
10.....................Dallas................20-24............3 1/2
9......................Detroit................20-24............3 1/2
8......................Orlando..............19-26............5
7......................Washington.........19-26............5
6......................Memphis...........19-26............5


Relevant January 17th games:

Sacto  (9-12 away) @ Detroit (13-10 home)
Dallas (4-18 away) @ Indiana (15-6 home)
Milwaukee (12-8 away) @ Orlando (12-12 home)
Memphis (8-18 away) @ Toronto (19-4 home)


bob



.

Slow down. Season flying by.

Raptors play Sacto

Updated pre-game times 1/22/19:


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................LA Lakers............25-23...........---
13.....................Sacto.................24-23...........1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........22-24............2
11.....................New Orleans.......22-25............2 1/2
10.....................Dallas................20-26............4
9......................Detroit................20-26............4
8......................Washington.........20-26............4
7......................Orlando..............20-27............4 1/2
6......................Memphis...........19-8..............5 1/2


Relevant January 22nd games:

Sacramento (10-13 away) @ Toronto (20-4 home)
Clippers (11-11 away) @ Dallas (16-6 home)
Minnesota (6-16 away) @ Phoenix (7-17 home)


bob



.

Updated pre-game times 1/23/19: The pack has tightened up a bit around Sacto. The Memphis pick is Top 8 protected, and they are currently in 6th.


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................LA Lakers............25-23...........---
13.....................Sacto.................24-24...........1
12.....................Minnesota...........23-24............1 1/2
11.....................New Orleans.......22-25............2 1/2
10.....................Dallas................21-26............3 1/2
9......................Detroit................20-26............4
8......................Washington.........20-26............4
7......................Orlando..............20-27............4 1/2
6......................Memphis...........19-28............5 1/2


Relevant January 22nd games:

Orlando (8-14 away) @ Brooklyn (13-11 home)
Charlotte (6-16 away) @ Memphis (11-11 home)
Detroit (7-15 away) @ New Orleans (15-6 home)
Denver (11-10 away) @ Utah (13-9 home)


bob



.

Updated pre-game times 1/24/19:


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................LA Lakers............25-23...........---
13.....................Sacto.................24-24...........1
12.....................Minnesota...........23-24............1 1/2
11.....................New Orleans.......22-26............3
10.....................Dallas................21-26............3 1/2
9......................Detroit................21-26............3 1/2
8......................Washington.........20-26............4
7......................Orlando..............20-28............5
6......................Memphis...........19-29............6


Relevant January 24th games:

GSW (15-8 away) @ Washington (15-8 home)
New Orleans (7-19 away) @ OKC (15-7 home)
Minnesota (7-16 away) @ LA Lakers (15-10 home)


bob



.

BobH,

So the best we can hope for if it is held today is the actual lottery to pick Memphis lower than you have them projected, correct?

db

dbrown4 wrote:BobH,

So the best we can hope for if it is held today is the actual lottery to pick Memphis lower than you have them projected, correct?

db

dbrown,

Not exactly.

The Memphis pick is Top 8 Protected this year. That means if Memphis gets the #8, #7, #6, etc pick we do NOT get it this year. NEXT year it is only Top 6 protected and, if they REALLY suck next year too, then the pick rolls over one more year and it is totally unprotected.

If the lottery were held today we would get Sacto's pick, which would be #13, the Clipper's pick (#17, I think) and our own pick (#22 or #23, we're tied with OKC right now).


bob


.

Clippers getting closer to falling out of playoffs.

That's right. I was looking at the notes earlier in this thread and forgot to get back to the present!

I guess what I'm saying is, if lottery were held today and MEM is projected to be the 6th pick but it turns out the lottery actually picks them 9th this year, we get the pick, correct? But only in that case, right?

db

Updated pre-game times 1/25/19:


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................LA Lakers............25-24...........---
13.....................Sacto.................24-24...........1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........24-24............1/2
11.....................New Orleans.......22-27............3
10.....................Dallas................21-26............3
9......................Detroit................21-26............3
8......................Washington.........20-27............4
7......................Orlando..............20-28............4 1/2
6......................Memphis...........19-29............5 1/2


Relevant January 25th games:

Washington (5-18 away) @ Orlando (12-13 home)
Sacramento (10-14 away) @ Memphis (11-12 home)
Detroit (8-15 away) @ Dallas (17-6 home)
Minnesota (8-18 away) @ Utah (14-9 home)


bob



.

dbrown4 wrote:That's right.  I was looking at the notes earlier in this thread and forgot to get back to the present!

I guess what I'm saying is, if lottery were held today and MEM is projected to be the 6th pick but it turns out the lottery actually picks them 9th this year, we get the pick, correct?  But only in that case, right?

db  

Yes. So there’s a decent chance if seeded 8th or later, we’d get the pick, assuming it falls to 9 or later

dbrown4 wrote:That's right.  I was looking at the notes earlier in this thread and forgot to get back to the present!

I guess what I'm saying is, if lottery were held today and MEM is projected to be the 6th pick but it turns out the lottery actually picks them 9th this year, we get the pick, correct?  But only in that case, right?

db  

If Memphis finishes with the 6th worst record, it would be a statistical miracle for them to move back to the 9th spot.
They would have to be jumped by 3 teams who have lower lottery odds than Memphis does in order for them to be pushed back.
This year there is a change to the lottery.
The top 4 picks are now chosen by ping pong balls.
Previously it had been 3 teams chosen by ping pong balls.
So in this scenario with Memphis with the 6th pick, 3 of the teams seeded 7-14 would all have to move into 3 of the top 4 spots in order for Memphis to move back 3 spots.

tjmakz wrote:

dbrown4 wrote:That's right.  I was looking at the notes earlier in this thread and forgot to get back to the present!

I guess what I'm saying is, if lottery were held today and MEM is projected to be the 6th pick but it turns out the lottery actually picks them 9th this year, we get the pick, correct?  But only in that case, right?

db  

If Memphis finishes with the 6th worst record, it would be a statistical miracle for them to move back to the 9th spot.
They would have to be jumped by 3 teams who have lower lottery odds than Memphis does in order for them to be pushed back.
This year there is a change to the lottery.
The top 4 picks are now chosen by ping pong balls.
Previously it had been 3 teams chosen by ping pong balls.
So in this scenario with Memphis with the 6th pick, 3 of the teams seeded 7-14 would all have to move into 3 of the top 4 spots in order for Memphis to move back 3 spots.

I’ve it if I read the table correctly, we’d get it if seeded:
5: 0.6% chance
6: 3.8%
7: 14.2%
8: 39.2%
9: 79.7%

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Copy and paste the above url into a new browser.
You will see the current draft pick odds.
Right now there's a 3.7% chance that Boston will get menphis pick at #9.
There's a 4.8% chance that Boston will get Sacramento's pick in the 2-4 range.

tjmakz wrote:http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Copy and paste the above url into a new browser.
You will see the current draft pick odds.
Right now there's a 3.7% chance that Boston will get menphis pick at #9.
There's a 4.8% chance that Boston will get Sacramento's pick in the 2-4 range.

bob


.

Updated pre-game times 1/29/19:


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................LA Lakers............26-24...........---
13.....................Sacto.................25-25...........1
12.....................Minnesota...........24-26............2
11.....................Dallas................22-27............3 1/2
10.....................New Orleans.......22-28............4
9......................Detroit................21-27............4
8......................Washington.........21-28............4 1/2
7......................Orlando..............20-30............6
6......................Memphis...........20-31............6 1/2


Relevant January 25th games:

Washington (6-19 away) @ Cavaliers (6-19 home)
Milwaukee (13-9 away) @ Detroit (13-11 home)
OKC (14-11 home) @ Orlando (12-14 home)
New Orleans (7-20 away) @ Houston (19-7 home)
Philadelphia (11-13 away) @ LA Lakers (16-11 home)


bob



.

I am hoping that the LAC can hold on to 8th place but they look to be fading.

The good thing is that we have another shot next year top 14 protected so all is not lost (On the Clipper's pick)

Updated pre-game times 1/29/19:


Lottery Seed......Team...................Record..........GB  
14.....................LA Lakers............26-25...........---
13.....................Sacto.................25-25...........1/2
12.....................Minnesota...........24-26............1 1/2
11.....................New Orleans.......23-28............3
10.....................Dallas................22-27............3  
9......................Detroit................21-28............3 1/2
8......................Washington.........21-29............4
7......................Orlando..............20-31............6
6......................Memphis...........20-31............6


Relevant January 30th games:

Dallas (4-20 away) @ NY (4-17 home)
Indiana (14-10 away) @ Washington (15-9 home)
Memphis (8-17 away) @ Minnesota (16-9 home)
Denver (12-11 away) @ New Orleans (15-8 home)
Atlanta (8-20 away @ Sacramento (14-10 home)
Utah (14-13 away) @ Portland (21-7 home)


bob



.