The New Look Boston Celtics

Whoever said give Brad 1/3 of the season to figure it out is good advice.

Again, it all really depends on who shows up. If GH, JT, JB and RW all show up to potential and expectations, this team could very well be dangerous.

But that is the extreme expectation given injuries always figure into the equation and we seem to get hit by it way more than other teams. Although, I personally believe it is a more realistic one for the upcoming season. In my book, it's worth $200 for another round of LP!

db

I think either Smart or Hayward may possibly come off the bench to anchor the second unit.  My bet would be Smart because he has played that role before.

I have a projected staring unit of Kanter, Hayward, Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker

Top 5/6 Rotation guys

Smart, Robert Williams, Carsen Edwards, (Theis or Ojeleye) Grant Williams.

3rd string

Langford, Poirier, Wanamaker 

There are not a lot of shooting options off the bench.  The Celtics may need to pull one of their starting wings out of the game early in the quarter to boost the 2nd unit production.

Brad will figure this out over time.   I think Brad should nail down his top 8 first and then expand.  That will be a tough call as either Carsen Edwards or Grant Williams could be in the mix for a top 8 rotation guy.  Edwards probably gets the nod because he is a more proven shooter.

Hi,
I'm not yet sold on RW3. I think if Poirier quickly adjusts to NBA he might become the backup C ahead of RW3.
There're quite a few unknowns. Hopefully, Brad will figure out the most efficient rotations within month or two of the season.

AK

sinus007 wrote:Hi,
I'm not yet sold on RW3. I think if Poirier quickly adjusts to NBA he might become the backup C ahead of RW3.
There're quite a few unknowns. Hopefully, Brad will figure out the most efficient rotations within month or two of the season.

AK

I have seen film on Poirier and he is the real unknown to me.  He can play in the post but most of the film I saw was his post play.  I do not want to discount what he brings to the table however he is 25 years old and I do not see a lot of upside.  

I happen to be sold on RW3.  I thought the Celtics did a piss poor job getting him playing time during the regular season.  Both Baynes and Horford were less than 100% during the playoffs but RW was not ready to contribute.  You have to get reps.

Williams has the speed and quickness to play some PF.  I think he will be our top big man defender this season.  

The good thing is that Brad now has more options at the 5.  

I would not be surprised if RW pushed Kanter for the starting 5 spot because he is a better defender.

The two spots where there will be a lot of competition is at the 4 and at the 5.

IMHO

Dboss,
The main reason I'm not sold on RW3 is his defense. Those few times that he was on the floor not in garbage time he made glaring mistakes so, Brad had to take him out. I hope that more experience, more PT with the first and second units will help him.
Unfortunately, I haven't watched how Kanter plays, especially on defense therefore can't argue who's a better defender.
Again, I hope with all my heart that both of them excel in that department.

AK

Sinus

No doubt.  RW often looked like a rookie on defense but I think it is more mental in combination with limited reps.  He only logged around 8 MPG.

He is not the automatic 2nd big.  He has much work to do but now I think he gets an opportunity.  RW has shown shot blocking ability, speed and quickness and a knack for passing the ball.  

We are going to find out about him and especially VP.

Good luck to all these guys.

I was looking at Gordon Hayward's career stats.  I recall last year he mentioned that getting to the rim opens up his game.

He got to the line on average 6 times per game during his last 3 years in Utah.  Last year he only got to the line 2.6 times per game.  If you want to gauge how he is progressing during the season his FTA will be a key measurement.  

Expectations for GH really need to be put into perspective.  Those last 3  years in Utah he scored 19.3, 19.7 and 21.9.   He averaged 35 MPG.  The likelihood that he will play that many minutes is very doubtful.   GH has NEVER been a high volume shooter.  In my opinion a successful year would reflect averages of 14 PPG, 5 assists and 5 rebounds at around 28 MPG.  He will still have big games where he leads the Celtics in scoring.

I am still not sure who should comes off of the bench for Boston or more importantly who are our starters. 

Brad has a lot of lineup options but our first game is against the Sixers.  They will be big.  We will need someone to cover AH on the perimeter and also on the block.  Al will recognize mismatch situations and if a small guy is on him he will take him down low.  We have to pair someone with Kanter.  The option for dealing with AH include Semi, Daniel Theis and Robert Williams.  All three guys have practiced against AH so they are familiar with how he plays.  I think RW would be the best choice because of his ability to defend out to the perimeter and his size and length in the post.

GH will get starting assignments when Boston rolls out their 3 headed wing monster.  

Brad however needs to be very cautious with GH this year.  We are not going to know if he is ready to play at a high level.  Easing him into the flow may be prudent.

After GH reported that he has been able to train in the off season at a normal pace and his leg feels amazing, I am looking forward to seeing him and have an uptick in confidence for what I expect him to do.

I see a lot of teams playing a PG, a center, a SG and 2 SF's.  That should be Boston's preferred lineup if you want to see our trio of wings play together and play big minutes.  The problem with that lineup, which maximizes the offensive potential of the team, is on the defensive side of the ball for the candidate that has to check power forwards.  Matchups go both ways however.  Tatum and GH may present a matchup nightmare on the other end of the floor because both of them have handle and they both are 3 point shooters.  If you check them too closely they may just take you off the dribble.

This is a compelling unknown for me.  

The most glaring issue with a small ball lineup is at the center position where Kanter who is an above average rebounder and inside scorer but cannot be relied on defensively.  It is not like he can bring help if one of our undersized 4's is being abused.

Mobile defensive minded centers allows you to be very effective with playing small ball.

My conclusions is that Robert Williams will play a key role as a defensive center that has the quickness and athleticism to play off the ball as a help defender when needed.

Expect coach to try different combinations to see how well they play together. 

Give me 4 scorers all of whom can shoot and get to the rim and give me a guy who picks for them and plays defense.  

My new projected starting 5 (likely to change by tomorrow)

Walker, Brown, Tatum, Hayward and R Williams.  

My bench

Smart, Kanter, G Wiilams, Edwards, Langford

Reserves:

Theis, Ojeleye, Poirier (expect any one of these guys to be situational players as starters or as primary rotation guys on any given night based on matchups))

I'm am giving the rookies minutes over some veteran because Theis has not shown enough at age 27 and Semi has no handle, is unreliable shooter and does not have the all around skills that rookie Grant Williams brings to the table.

The Celtics start year 6 since the rebuild began.  The clock is ticking.  It may be time to think outside the box.  The Celtics will not win the championship this coming season.  They have nothing to lose and everything to gain.  

The youth movement needs to move into 5th gear.

G Will over Theis already? The kid needs to earn that spot.

dboss wrote:After GH reported that he has been able to train in the off season at a normal pace and his leg feels amazing, I am looking forward to seeing him and have an uptick in confidence for what I expect him to do.

I see a lot of teams playing a PG, a center, a SG and 2 SF's.  That should be Boston's preferred lineup if you want to see our trio of wings play together and play big minutes.  The problem with that lineup, which maximizes the offensive potential of the team, is on the defensive side of the ball for the candidate that has to check power forwards.  Matchups go both ways however.  Tatum and GH may present a matchup nightmare on the other end of the floor because both of them have handle and they both are 3 point shooters.  If you check them too closely they may just take you off the dribble.

This is a compelling unknown for me.  

The most glaring issue with a small ball lineup is at the center position where Kanter who is an above average rebounder and inside scorer but cannot be relied on defensively.  It is not like he can bring help if one of our undersized 4's is being abused.

Mobile defensive minded centers allows you to be very effective with playing small ball.

My conclusions is that Robert Williams will play a key role as a defensive center that has the quickness and athleticism to play off the ball as a help defender when needed.

Expect coach to try different combinations to see how well they play together. 

Give me 4 scorers all of whom can shoot and get to the rim and give me a guy who picks for them and plays defense.  

My new projected starting 5 (likely to change by tomorrow)

Walker, Brown, Tatum, Hayward and R Williams.  

My bench

Smart, Kanter, G Wiilams, Edwards, Langford

Reserves:

Theis, Ojeleye, Poirier (expect any one of these guys to be situational players as starters or as primary rotation guys on any given night based on matchups))

I'm am giving the rookies minutes over some veteran because Theis has not shown enough at age 27 and Semi has no handle, is unreliable shooter and does not have the all around skills that rookie Grant Williams brings to the table.

The Celtics start year 6 since the rebuild began.  The clock is ticking.  It may be time to think outside the box.  The Celtics will not win the championship this coming season.  They have nothing to lose and everything to gain.  

The youth movement needs to move into 5th gear.

I gotta give you credit dboss - as your not afraid to spend a lot of time going out on a limb looking into the future - something that I shy away from - especially because of the effect of free agency. For me it will probably be march when I'll start to have a feeling as to how the season is shaping up. I think that Sam used to wait until april. Could it be a labor of love for you?

swish

worcester wrote:G Will over Theis already? The kid needs to earn that spot.

Worcester

You'll note that I carefully crafted my over the top assumption that included a contingency for Theis

"(expect any one of these guys to be situational players as starters or as primary rotation guys on any given night based on matchups)"


But here is something I want to share that surprised the hell out of me as it relates to Theis at the 4.


Let me again share the 77 different 5 man lineups last year.


https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1


Theis was never Paired with either Horford or Baynes last year.  He did play with PF's Morris and Ojeleye and I am assuming that neither them were playing at the 5.  He play 15 minutes with yabusele so maybe Yabu was at the 5.

This tells me the the Celtics used Theis exclusively at the 5 in Brad's small ball lineup.  With that in mind I can see where rookie Grant Williams will get minutes at the 4 over Theis.  

Theis played 13.8 minutes per game last year.  The competition for minutes at the 5 spot includes 4 guys.  Kanter will get the bulk of minutes at center (I would actually be shocked if Williams started over Kanter)  The Celtics have to play Theis so the real battle for minutes will be between Williams and Poirier.  I really do not expect Kanter to log more then 22 MPG.  

Caution however must be factored in because 5 top rotation guys are gone.  Brad would be making a huge mistake if he attempts to role out the same schemes as last year.  


Brad may not  play as much small ball 5.  I expect to see more small ball at the 4 with Tatum and Gordon getting a lot of minutes there.    


The Celtics have 4 really good offensive players that can score from the perimeter and take it off the bounce.  Those guys need to get more minutes and more shot attempts, especially Hayward and Brown.  

Swish

I did say my starting lineup would change today.

We need lineups that provide scorers and non- scorers.  If you put 5 scorers together like Boston did last year everyone of them is going to want their fair share of looks.  

I think you have to have at least one guy in the lineup that is more than willing to focus on defense and finding the shooters on offense.  Setting screens and making solid passes.  That does not mean that they do not get a chance to shoot.  It just means that is not their primary goal.

Despite that, I believe Boston has to open the season with Kanter at center and go from there.  A starting 5 unit of Walker, Brown, Tatum and Hayward with Kanter in the middle seems plausible.  Brad may want to sit Hayward and replace him with Smart or someone else.

We may not establish a set lineup right away.  Brad will experiment.  It is important not to role with a lineup that does not work for 19 games but you have to give lineups some time to gel.  (10-12 games at least.

With the new look Celtics and all the changes, the only thing that hasn't changed is the coach. Unfortunately, Brad may be the one that will be on the hot seat this upcoming season.

If he loses control with a rogue personality like he did last season and can't pivot to get the team back on track, the spotlight is going to be blaring on him. We, meaning Danny, may need to face some facts at that point. I sincerely hope he is not the Moses of the NBA that won't make it to the Promised Land. He'd be able to see it, but wouldn't get there with the Celtics. It's a very real possibility. I know he works hard, puts in 24 hours a day 7 days a week like every other NBA coach and everybody loves him, but if Danny doesn't see a significant recapturing of the continually upward moving train with Brad at the helm that DA became accustom to over the first five seasons sans last seasons train wreck, the ax may need to swing.

I'm sure Danny uses/will use many metrics and intangibles to determine Brad's progress and fate and not just final season record and playoff run depth. Team chemistry, team leader development, attitude, individual player development/improvement, etc. just to name a few.

This upcoming season's team is somewhat of a clean slate with some returning faces and lots of new faces. I do believe no one is following us or expecting much from us. Hence the significant drop to 25 Nationally televised games vs. 38-39 games a season over the lasts two years. The ESPN's and TNT's of the world are going to regret that move financially in my humble but accurate opinion. We're on the edge and any slightly significant tick upwards in reality like Tatum and JB playing out of their brains will be more like a catapult not an inching up.

db

Kemba Jaylen Tatum RW Kantor

One non scorer, RW to defend and board, obviously he can still catch lobs and be fed underneath....

Smart GH GWill CE Poirer/Theis Romeo, this team is deep.

dboss, that advanced stat webpage to which you directed me shows the Celts were damn good with GH, TR, JB, JT and DT on the floor together, but for so few minutes.

dbrown4 wrote:With the new look Celtics and all the changes, the only thing that hasn't changed is the coach.  Unfortunately, Brad may be the one that will be on the hot seat this upcoming season.  

If he loses control with a rogue personality like he did last season and can't pivot to get the team back on track, the spotlight is going to be blaring on him.  We, meaning Danny, may need to face some facts at that point.  I sincerely hope he is not the Moses of the NBA that won't make it to the Promised Land.  He'd be able to see it, but wouldn't get there with the Celtics.  It's a very real possibility.  I know he works hard, puts in 24 hours a day 7 days a week like every other NBA coach and everybody loves him, but if Danny doesn't see a significant recapturing of the continually upward moving train with Brad at the helm that DA became accustom to over the first five seasons sans last seasons train wreck, the ax may need to swing.  

I'm sure Danny uses/will use many metrics and intangibles to determine Brad's progress and fate and not just final season record and playoff run depth.  Team chemistry, team leader development, attitude, individual player development/improvement, etc. just to name a few.  

This upcoming season's team is somewhat of a clean slate with some returning faces and lots of new faces.  I do believe no one is following us or expecting much from us.  Hence the significant drop to 25 Nationally televised games vs. 38-39 games a season over the lasts two years.  The ESPN's and TNT's of the world are going to regret that move financially in my humble but accurate opinion.  We're on the edge and any slightly significant tick upwards in reality like Tatum and JB playing out of their brains will be more like a catapult not an inching up.    

db  

db,

A good and well reasoned post.

I still think Stevens is the bright young coach he was hailed as during his first couple of seasons. The old saying that it is easier to fire the coach than the whole team is sadly accurate. That's the change I would expect if last season repeats. I do think, as you say, this team could provide some big surprises this season. If that's the case, I expect Stevens to be around long enough to be knocking on the door for a division title.

Regards

The Celtics need a low volume shooter in their lineup.

The two prime candidates for a key bench role are GH or Marcus Smart.  Both of them can facilitate the offense but GH is also a primary scorer and as such he needs a lot more scoring opportunities.  

Someone has to be willing to take less shots.  If you have 5 shooters/scorers in the starting unit,  It is not going to work.  

If you want to start Walker, Brown, Tatum, Hayward and Kanter, you are going to have chemistry issues again.  I think you have to either go with a defensive minded center or you need to move one of your wings to the bench and replace them with a PF like Grant Williams or Daniel Theis or Semi or Robert Williams.  Kanter is a non-passer.  

If you want to play KW, JT, JB and GH together you need to start Williams.  I really do not think you can start Theis at center.  You need more size and length.

The reports are saying that GH feels great and this only serves to build the anticipation.  I have thought about him starting a lot.  I think you should start the season off with him coming off the bench in a 6th man (Johnny Havlicek) role.  So here are a few options to consider:

KW, JB, JT, GW, EK
KW, MS,JB, JT, EK
KW, JB, JT, GH, RW
KW, JB, JT, DT, EK
KW, JB, JT, RW, EK
KW, JB, JT, GW, RW
KW, JB, JT, SO, EK
KW, JB, JT, SO, RW
KW, MS, JB, JT, RW

You could also bring JB and MS off the bench.  

Note:  none of these lineups include 5 players that are offensive minded.  I think that is the key

Last year the reason why MS worked better was because he is a low volume shooter.

You can accomplish the same thing by having MS,  RW, DT, GW or SO in the starting lineup.  The only way a 3 wing lineup with JB, JT and GH is going to work is if EK does not start with them.  It is important to understand that Kemba Walker is a shoot first point guard and a damn good one.  But he is a high usage rate player and a high volume shooter.  Our 3 wings are interchangeable but GH is more advanced as a facilitator at this point.

With all the new guys on this team in what will be 3 new starters, it will take time for Brad to figure this out.