Who Really Needs a 30+ MPG Center

Contrary to my previous observations, the need for a center who can play big minutes is not supported by the trends that we have seen in the NBA.

In 2010 there were 11 centers that played at least 30 MPG.  That number held fast in 2015 where 11 centers logged at least 30 MPG.  This season only 6 centers have averaged 30 or more minutes per game with Rudy topping off the list at 34.5 MPG.

Not only are there fewer full time centers but the trend towards less minutes overall is evident.  In 2010 there were 5 centers who play at or above 35 MPG.  This year there are none. 

This trend is likely driven by the proliferation of the 3 point shot and a corresponding need to use more small ball lineups including 3 wing configurations.

What does this mean for the Celtics?  I think we have already seen the result.  Our primary center (DT) averages 23.4 MPG.  As the discussion about drafting a big continues we probably will not see a future 30 MPG guy unless his is able to play a ton of minutes away from the basket.

Even the need for more beef at PF must be measured against the reality that JT is our new age PF.  

The team has been built to surround our center with high end shot makers.  I would be quite pleased getting a guy who can project at  4/5 that posses very particular skills at the defensive end and on the glass.  However I would go for a perimeter scorer first.

After looking closer at the trends I would suggest that Boston draft a high end shooter that can bring balance to the bench.  That may be our most important need.

Wise dboss. Also, if RWill is not healthy and ready to contribute by now, he will never be. I expect him to make a big impact for the rest of this season. Yes. Get a shooter.

worcester wrote:Wise dboss. Also, if RWill is not healthy and ready to contribute by now, he will never be. I expect him to make a big impact for the rest of this season. Yes. Get a shooter.

Worcester 

This is the first time I really looked at how MPG for centers has changed.

It definitely changes my perspective.  

RW can get healthy but can he stay healthy?  That is a topic that we discussed on our trial zoom meeting.  And it was somewhat of a consensus that we probably could look for a big in the draft.  I think we still may have a shot at a quality big but should they draft one early or late?

Our bench scoring was atrocious this season so now i really have changed my thoughts about our # 1 need.  

I like the shooter out of vandy, Aaron Nesmith but I would not hesitate one minute to use our top pick on Josh Green  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1qnIZ3-jZI.  He's a 6' 5"  SG that can play some point.  He's quick and athletic and can play defense and shoot the rock.  He's an Ausie who played at Arizona.  He very much reminds me of Devin Booker  (averaged 10 ppg as a one and done coming out of Kentucky)

Check out the video on Josh.  Looks like a complete offensive PKG.  Excellent shooting mechanics.

I don’t know if RW can stay healthy, if he could it would be great, but he barely gets 10-12 minutes a game and has not proved that he can be a dependable rotation player yet. Plus we have an abidance of guards, after KW and Jaylen, Marcus Smart gets steady minutes and Romeo is going to be pining for more minutes as well and looks like he could make a jump next year too as his shooting and awareness improve. We have those 4 and I’m thinking one of Tremont Waters or Carson Edwards might also make a jump. So with the state of our young backcourt, I would rather go with a big

Cow

I do not see a significant level of upside from our rookies. Romeo probably has the most. He has a lot of work to do in fixing the mechanics of his jumper. Defensively he is very good. Will Edwards emerge as a reliable bench scorer? I do not know.

If scoring off the bench is our biggest weakness a big probably will not move the needle. I think Danny should also draft a big but I would like to see them target a shooter first.

Dbrown

Injuries factored in but we do not have one legit shooter off the bench. Not one.

Cow, were you making a pun about Romeo sitting on the bench (pine) when you wrote "Romeo is going to be pining for more minutes"?

dboss wrote:Dbrown

Injuries factored in but we do not have one legit shooter off the bench.  Not one.  

Smart is an all around force and can get hot, Romeo and CE can only get better. I’m thinking Carson’s shot will start dropping, Kantor and RWill also are not exactly durable either, I am expecting bigger things/impact from RW, a mobile defensive big to add with Theis who I love, would add to this team. Another guard won’t even get playing time, is he gonna be better at bringing up the ball than Tremont or be as good defensively as Romeo? Those are our 3rd and 4th guys trying to get in the rotation.

Actually we’re pretty deep all over IF everyone can get and stay healthy.

worcester wrote:Cow, were you making a pun about Romeo sitting on the bench (pine) when you wrote "Romeo is going to be pining for more minutes"?

Not really lol, but I do like his game and think our rookies can only get better....

I predict, one more major injury, and Robert Williams will be come trade bait, there is only so long the Celtics will put up with "what could be". Reading some of the "who is would be trade bait" from all those pop up basketball sites, they have Smart getting traded possibly (which I believe will never happen) of course, Gordon, Langford and Edwards. It is going to be an interesting off season, if you want to call it that.

Cowens....I agree with you, Langford has talent and is going to get better and better with confidence

dboss wrote:Contrary to my previous observations, the need for a center who can play big minutes is not supported by the trends that we have seen in the NBA.

In 2010 there were 11 centers that played at least 30 MPG.  That number held fast in 2015 where 11 centers logged at least 30 MPG.  This season only 6 centers have averaged 30 or more minutes per game with Rudy topping off the list at 34.5 MPG.

Not only are there fewer full time centers but the trend towards less minutes overall is evident.  In 2010 there were 5 centers who play at or above 35 MPG.  This year there are none. 

This trend is likely driven by the proliferation of the 3 point shot and a corresponding need to use more small ball lineups including 3 wing configurations.

What does this mean for the Celtics?  I think we have already seen the result.  Our primary center (DT) averages 23.4 MPG.  As the discussion about drafting a big continues we probably will not see a future 30 MPG guy unless his is able to play a ton of minutes away from the basket.

Even the need for more beef at PF must be measured against the reality that JT is our new age PF.  

The team has been built to surround our center with high end shot makers.  I would be quite pleased getting a guy who can project at  4/5 that posses very particular skills at the defensive end and on the glass.  However I would go for a perimeter scorer first.

After looking closer at the trends I would suggest that Boston draft a high end shooter that can bring balance to the bench.  That may be our most important need.

Dboss

Like you pointed out----Here's a few more numbers to show how the game has changed over the years.

During the 1956-57 season, centers took 22.8% of the field goal attempts - in1985-86 it dropped to 19% - in 1909-10 it dropped to 10.8% and in 2019-20 it was down to 10.4%. Just a case of shooting preference going to those players who had become proficient at knocking down the 3 pointer. While shooting effectiveness (EFG%) is the key to success (both offense and defense) the role of rebounding by centers and center forwards will still a play a major role as a teams third most important stat to a teams success. The Celtics had a good defensive efg this past year but ranked in the middle of the pack on offensive efg and rebounding. It will be interesting to see just what noves Danny will be able to make.

swish

Swish 

Trying to guess what Danny will do never works for me.

GH and JB ranked 17th and 18th in EFG%
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/stats?season=2019&category=ADVANCED&group=1&sort=7&time=0&pos=0&team=0&qual=1&sortOrder=0&opp=0

Our starting unit is pretty solid.  Our bench no so much.

Swish. I know we are both old timers, but even I could not remember back to the 1909-10 season.

worcester wrote:Swish. I know we are both old timers, but even I could not remember back to the 1909-10 season.

worcester - Just wait until a little senility sets in - I must have chcked for errors 2 or 3 times but either the eyes or brain were taking a late afternoon nap.

swish

dboss wrote:Swish 

Trying to guess what Danny will do never works for me.

GH and JB ranked 17th and 18th in EFG%
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/stats?season=2019&category=ADVANCED&group=1&sort=7&time=0&pos=0&team=0&qual=1&sortOrder=0&opp=0

Our starting unit is pretty solid.  Our bench no so much.

dboss

Excellent young base to build on - but perhaps it's time to take on some inexpensive veterans to shore up the weak areas. I always love to watch the vets capitilize on their experience - and often times you can get them on the real cheap side. Look at he LAKER ROSTER for example.

swish

swish wrote:

dboss wrote:Swish 

Trying to guess what Danny will do never works for me.

GH and JB ranked 17th and 18th in EFG%
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/stats?season=2019&category=ADVANCED&group=1&sort=7&time=0&pos=0&team=0&qual=1&sortOrder=0&opp=0

Our starting unit is pretty solid.  Our bench no so much.

dboss

Excellent young base to build on - but perhaps it's time to take on some inexpensive veterans to shore up the weak areas. I always love to watch the vets capitilize on their experience -  and often times you can get them on the real cheap side. Look at he LAKER ROSTER for example.

  swish

With the abundance of draft picks that Danny has accumulated he has not added many experienced veterans to the team.  Including the 2-way contracts this team added 7 rookies to the team.  None of those rookies made their mark.  Year two for them should bring into better focus what their upside is.  I think Green and Semi will not be with us next season.  However they got one last chance coming up to keep their spots.

Seems there is no room to add 3 more picks.

You really think Semi is gone?  Green, yes.  I am not so sure about Semi. He really picked it up the second half of the season. It is a shame that thing happened the way they did, his offense was coming around. He is a Brad favorite, but if someone offers him a better shot I guess he would go

https://twitter.com/danielrainge/status/1271099077120405504


bob
MY NOTE:  I think his heel might have been on the sideline, but still pretty impressive especially when you consider how far he's come...


.

bobheckler wrote:https://twitter.com/danielrainge/status/1271099077120405504


bob
MY NOTE:  I think his heel might have been on the sideline, but still pretty impressive especially when you consider how far he's come...


.

Interesting to see him taking that type of shot.

RosalieTCeltics wrote:You really think Semi is gone?  Green, yes.  I am not so sure about Semi. He really picked it up the second half of the season. It is a shame that thing happened the way they did, his offense was coming around. He is a Brad favorite, but if someone offers him a better shot I guess he would go

Celts have a $1.75M. Team option to retain him. Danny may keep him. A lot depends on how many draft picks are used to add players.

dboss wrote:

bobheckler wrote:https://twitter.com/danielrainge/status/1271099077120405504


bob
MY NOTE:  I think his heel might have been on the sideline, but still pretty impressive especially when you consider how far he's come...


.

Interesting to see him taking that type of shot.

bob and dboss

I think that it's simply a replay of the same shot over and over.

swish

swish wrote:

dboss wrote:

bobheckler wrote:https://twitter.com/danielrainge/status/1271099077120405504


bob
MY NOTE:  I think his heel might have been on the sideline, but still pretty impressive especially when you consider how far he's come...


.

Interesting to see him taking that type of shot.

bob and dboss

I think that it's simply a replay of the same shot over and over.

 swish

And he made it eveytime

Dboss and Swish,

1.  Yes, it's the same shot repeating.
2.  It's still impressive for a player who couldn't hit a frito.
3.  There's no excuse for him not to hit his fritos anymore.


bob


.

BobH,  My comment was dripping with irony, a little sarcasm and hopefully a bit of humor.

Having said that, I would be encouraged if we saw a video of him catching an interior pass and keeping the ball up high.  Does Kevin Mchale have time to work with this giant of a man?