Classical Rant from a Disgruntled Fan

Veteran level rotation players have been a key ingredient on every championship club.
Sometimes however you can have too many starting level players on your team.  Last year's roster was flat out loaded.  We had 3 Allstars in Horford, Irving and Hayward.  We  had a top 5 defensive stopper in Smart.  We had two young talented wings (Jayson and Jalen) that had already proved their games by taking Cleveland to game 7 of the ECF.  We had a bump and grind bruiser in Baynes.  We had a 2 way defensive veteran forward in Morris and we had an up and coming PG in Terry Rozier.  Every single player that I mentioned had starter level talent.  That was a problem.

I think that was the wrong configuration but I am not sure if Danny realized who quickly the J's would develop.

After the blood bath was over, Danny set out to restock the team.  I thought he did a good job and probably bought into the Walker signing because the narrative was very much influenced by our disappointing experience with Kyrie on the team.  However,  Danny may have made it more difficult to keep our core together because of one bad contract.  That contract belongs to Kemba Walker a 10 year guy that could score big time and handle the ball.  In many respects his signing reminds me of the Al Horford signing from the Hawks.  Al was on the downward arc of a 9 year career with a few injuries along the way.  There is always a danger when you sign older veteran to big long term contracts.  There productive window is not wide open and it is likely to be that way increasingly before the contract is paid in full.

If I was the GM I would have done something different.  I would have resigned Terry Rozier because I think there was more value in him than Walker based on how much loot was inked.

Let me see if this is a sale or a no-sale or a check back with me later. (buy, sell, hold)

The Celtics signed Walker to a 4 year contract of $140.7 million and it will pay out  at $32.7,  $34.4, $36 and a Player option for $37.6 million.

As part of the sign and trade Rozier got a 3 year deal of $56.7 million to be paid at a rate of $19.8, $18.9 and $17.9.  

I cannot find a way to justify the Celtics spending $84 Million more on Walker.

So how did they do this year?

Walker Played in 52 games and averaged 31.4 MPG.  He averaged 21 PPG, 4.8 assists and 4 rebounds.

Rozier  played in 63 games and averaged 34.3 MPG.  He averaged 18PPG, 4.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds.

Walker Shot 42.3%  FG, 38.1% 3P and 86.6% FT.

Rozier shot 42.5%,  FG, 40.7%  3P and 87.4% FT.

Misc:   Walker with 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.1 Turnovers.
Misc:  Rozier with 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.2 Turnovers.

These numbers reflect a high degree of parity between Rozier and Walker.  Given Walker's knee issue which was pretty much hidden from view of fans when Danny made the deal and his age, Terry looks like a better prospect given the $84 million gap in salaries.

Danny could have use the $12 million in savings this year to add a veteran on a short 2 year contract for example,   Instead what we got was a bum rush of 7 rookies none of which look good enough to crack a rotation.  My hope is that Langford can  become a viable rotation guy and spot starter in a few years.   I however cannot look at him and just know that he is going to be a very good player.  Danny did not address any of his needs for adding a quality big and a scorer.  Add this to the way he spent money on Walker and you may be left with a collection of ifs, ands and buts.

I fully appreciate and understand that you have to give rookies time to develop. But not 7 all at once.  It's insane.   I did not like the draft picks and I stated that at the beginning of the season and I have seen nothing that has altered my opinion'

We have a wonderful core but not much else surrounding it.

Danny has 4 draft picks coming up.  He should try to move some of this years' rookies along with a pick or 2 and move up to select a prospect worth developmental time.  Maybe he can use the MLE and/or make a minor trade for some veteran depth.

The Celtics are good enough to beat any team on any given night.  Can they win a series?  Yes.  can they win a 2nd round series?  Not without Gordon Hayward.  He's a terrific basketball player and his replacement is really needed to lead the bench.

Some decent points, however it’s easy to makes calls in hindsight, last year Rozier showed me nothing, shot 38% FG and 35% from 3. I was begging to see more of the steady Wanamaker last year as Rozier was never steady, had way too many 1-6, 2-10 games. He never seemed to jell with the team last year and neither did Morris or Kyrie. Glad all 3 are gone, we needed more minutes for our best players, Morris is not near starting material or barely a rotation player on a contending team. It’s easy to put up numbers on a bad losing team, like Morris did on Knicks or Rozier did this year on Hornets, where he wasn’t even their best point guard. He’s not good enough or big enough to be a starting 2 on a contending team. Kemba could easily still put up 25 ppg on that Hornet team. It’s too bad he never had better players around him to play with so he could really show what he could do. My eye test tells me Kemba can put up productive numbers contributing to a winning situation, he can score, carry a team and is unselfish. Rozier is an athletic back up guard that had one good playoff run that is lucky he got that contract

dboss, You are my next GM. That was a spot on analysis! But actually I agree with Cow, so don't hire me as an assistant.

Danny could have use the $12 million in savings this year to add a veteran on a short 2 year contract for example,

The salary cap doesn't work that way.  Using rough numbers, we are $9M over the cap.  Subtract the $12M savings by signing TR and not KW, we would be $3M under.  That's all we could spend, in the $3M range.  Definitely not $12M.  This is an extreme generalization of how the numbers play out, but it gets us closer to the truth of the matter.

I don't buy the stats comparison.  The Hornets are a pretty bad team and by adding TR they didn't get any better.  They certainly got worse by subtracting KW.  I agree with Cowens, KW could have better stats if he were on the Hornets.  The other side of that coin is that TW would have had worse stats if Danny had resigned him.

KW >>>>> TR, by a lot.

Cowens said it best:

Kemba can put up productive numbers contributing to a winning situation, he can score, carry a team and is unselfish. Rozier is an athletic back up guard that had one good playoff run that is lucky he got that contract

I do agree that we need Gordon Hayward to succeed.  I believe his versatility replaced Horford's all around contribution.

Up to this point Walker has had the best career - now the question is - was this just a "flash in the pan" year for Rozier or a breakout year. Still young enough to have a nice solid career with a chance at some real big bucks.

swish

I think any comparison of Walker and Rozier has to include the salary/cap cost of each (both this year and moving forward). perhaps that it was dboss was pointing out.

most fans don't really care that much about the numbers and say let Ainge figure that out. Rightly so as we are just fans anyway,

in the off-season, after the Walker signing I wanted to see if Horford and Rozier could have been re-signed and the team stay under the tax line. it COULD have worked for sure. Now maybe Horford wasn't going to stay even if Ainge matched Philly's offer, who knows. But I would feel much better about our chances to get to the finals this year with Horford and Rozier over Walker and Kanter.

but we have what we have and we just have to hope that Walkers knee issue does not become chronic for the rest of his max deal.

I don't think they is any way Hayward is opting out of his player option at max money. So ownership will be paying a tax bill next season and Ainge will only have the the MLE to add a much needed big man (or additional shooter) to this team now.

with Tatum and Smart needing new deals at the end of NEXT season, I expect Hayward to be gone unless he takes a BIG pay cut though. The finances simply won't work. Walker and Tatum on max deals, Brown and Smart both pulling in $20M or more each year. no room for a near max Hayward, IMO.

but we will see.

dboss,

Excellent, well thought out post.

On the various points where you asked Buy/Sell/Hold...

Signing T Rozier vs Kemba; Hold. I personally thought the best move was to give TRo a shot as PG for the foreseeable future, vs adding a vet who may not go LT. It may be a few seasons before we can answer that. I do like the veteran maturity Kemba adds.

Not liking last year's draft; Buy. I agree and viewed it as a high risk gamble overall, especially Langford. My present opinion is we will realize zero from that draft.

Great core with not much surrounding it; Buy.

Trading young players and picks to move up in the draft; Buy. My fear is most of our young bench players have no value in a deal. The picks seem much more valuable. To me the formula hasn't changed for over a year... Big, shooter/PG, bench. The young core is among the best around. The elements that put Boston over the top may be more (new) youth in a bruising big and shooter from the college ranks, then looking in the bargain bin for veteran bench players. Not an easy formula to execute, but one that could hang a banner.

Regards

These are some great responses to me playing the part of the Devil's Advocate.  Here are my counter arguments

Cow, Terry craved a starting PG slot and last year he was one of several sacrifices for quality playing time.  His minutes decreased YOY 25.9 to 22.7.  He came up through the system and was more than ready to step in for the Celtics.  The difference between him this year and last year is all about playing time.  I am not making an argument to diminish Walker's abilities but know this, both of them are really combo guards.  

The basis for my argument is about measuring value.  You cannot ignore or discount the numbers.  The parity between them is there.  Terry by the way is a career 37.1% shooter from deep.  Bad games cannot alter the numbers.  Bad team do not alter the numbers for players with the ability to get theirs.  

GYSO you are spot on.  The deal that brought Walker here was a sign and trade.  Boston would not have $12 million to play with.  The long term impact however adds another level of uncertainty for guys like Hayward, Tatum and Marcus Smart as well other trades and signings in the future.

I disagree about how good a 30+ MPG player Rozier is vs Walker.  Walker is clearly the better OFFENSIVE player but he is not $84 million/4 years better.

There should be no question that Terry Rozier  has starter level talent as a combo guard.  He is likely to get better.

Sinus007 this is not about saving money.  It is about spending money.  Tatum is due after this season for an extension.  Boston should not wait until the end of next season to lock him up.  Once he becomes a free agent all sorts of mischief can occur.  He could sign a RFA contract and demand a trade.

KDP59 nailed it.  "I think any comparison of Walker and Rozier has to include the salary/cap cost of each (both this year and moving forward). perhaps that it was dboss was pointing out."

NYCelt, unlike the rest of my esteemed comrades, especially Cow who is as wrong as two left feet, you unpacked the whole thing.  

To all:  I think you guys will capitulate to my way of thinking before the Walker contract has been paid in full.  Walker has a knee issue that has to be "managed"

That tells me that we can expect more games missed.  Right now Celtics Nation is hoping and praying that Walker can "hold up" through a grueling playoff run because of that knee.  The long term prognosis is arthritis that will probably get progressively worse.

Last question.  Are the Celtics really a better team long term with Walker than with Rozier (BU Smart and Wanamaker)?  Is Walker worth $84 million more than Rozier?

Thanks for your indulgence.

dboss,

These are wonderful conversations to have.  Totally adult-like.  That is something I often take for granted when I come here and post a counter-argument to something someone spent a lot of time creating.

For me, I was happy to see TR go and I was double happy to see him go to a shit team like the Hornets.  I had had enough of him.  IMO, he was not going to be a starter on a championship contending team, which we aspire to be.

Perhaps we will eventually have second thoughts about Walker's contract.  We will have to wait and see.  I do see him as a starter on a championship contending team.  To me, that is now and I am not going to worry about how his contract affects us long term.

gyso

sinus007 wrote:

="kdp59"

...with Tatum and Smart needing new deals at the end of NEXT season ...

Kdp59,
Smart is signed thru 2021/2022. Tatum is signed thru 2020-2021.

AK

thanks, I didn't check it before the post.

sinus007 wrote:Dboss,
Answering your question - YES and YES (you actually asked 2 questions). Especially from the standpoint of last July/August.
IMO, KW is much better than TR. As for his knee, sure it's a gamble but who knew. We don't know what it is and how serious it is. Hopefully, it'll hold for the playoffs.
Also, based on rumors and some body language of the players, KW is better than TR chemistry wise.

On a personal side, if I may, stop being such a pessimist

AK

Sinous007

Enjoy the game tonight and try and get on Zoom. Didn't get to see much of you the other day.

With respect to the knee, a month or so ago I posted a very detailed article written by a physician that documented previous issues with Kemba's knee.

So who knew? I am certain Danny knew. You do not ink a $140 million deal without having detailed medical history. The risk was there and the thought process probably went something like this...We can manage the knee.

Is there any history with Danny claiming that the Celtics can manage a particular malady associated with a player? Yes there is.

I truly hope that the knee can be managed in a way that does not turn Kemba into a guy that misses 20 games per year. He has been an iron man but he has a lot of mileage on those knees. his meniscus is comparable to worn down tire tread.

I plan to retract everything that I said next year if Kemba stays healthy. I'll blame it on a mild case of covid 19 that impacted my cognitive recognition.

Terry may be a starting level guard, but he is no where near good enough to be a starter on a championship or contending team. Kemba Walker is an all star who can put up 40 on a given night. Terry never has been that good a player. Kemba is in the top 5 or 6 of pg's in the league. Terry is not even as good as George Hill or Joe Harris, hes not even in the top 30....

cowens/oldschool wrote:Terry may be a starting level guard, but he is no where near good enough to be a starter on a championship or contending team. Kemba Walker is an all star who can put up 40 on a given night. Terry never has been that good a player. Kemba is in the top 5 or 6 of pg's in the league. Terry is not even as good as George Hill or Joe Harris, hes not even in the top 30....

Well this year he was pretty good.  Joe Harris by the way is a wing.  And he is better than the ancient George Hill.  Making up stuff is a weak argument.

The numbers this year tell a different story.

Your argument that he is that good is weak, no one else sees it. One guy is a legit all star on 2 franchise's. The other guy has never been the best point on his own team ever and hes not a 2 either, hes a tweener not good enough to be a real point. I was really disappointed in him last year, after he had a good playoff the year before, there's a reason hes not here.

dboss........you make some great $$ points. However, just remember one thing, Rozier wanted out of here, period. He did not want to play fourth or fifth fiddle to the two J's, Hayward, and who ever else. He wanted it his way. Look back at his comments once he left, he even wanted to get away from Brad. So, he has gotten all his playing time, but his team stunk still. So, where would we be with him here????? Sorry, he had to go and getting Kemba certainly seemed like an awesome move at the time. I know we have had nothing but time to look back, but I still believe that Kemba will show us how great he is and erase some of the fears some are having.

I am not a $$ person, you guys have a better handle on that. It is easy to look back and say woulda, shoulda, coulda. If Jason Tatum had come out smoking, along with the terrific play of Jaylen and Hayward, we would not be having this conversation. Let's face it, losing brings out the worst in all of us fans. I could not even watch post game I was so ticked that they lost last night.

But I will not agree with the statement about Rozier........he drove me nuts......he had to go.

Like I said hindsight is easy to make comments and analysis, but at the time we all agree Rozier stunk his final year here. There's 30 better guards then him, probably more. As far as I'm concerned Rozier couldn't even hold Kembas jockstrap.

cowens
Could it be possible that some conclusions are being arrived at a little prematurely? Consider the fact that Rozier was a back-up point guard to Thomas his first 2 years and then spent his next 2 years backing up Irving. Playing short minutes is not good for the stat line but his trade to the Hornets got him off the bench in a hurry - and 34 minutes per game saw his stat line increase dramatically this past year. Will this continual over the next few years? Who knows for sure but his best years could be in the future.

swish

swish wrote: cowens
Could it be possible that some conclusions are being arrived at a little prematurely? Consider the fact that Rozier was a back-up point guard to Thomas his first 2 years and then spent his next 2 years backing up Irving. Playing short minutes is not good for the stat line but his trade to the Hornets got him off the bench in a hurry - and 34 minutes per game saw his stat line increase dramatically this past year. Will this continual over the next few years? Who knows for sure but his best years could be in the future.

swish

Really, I don't see one skill that he has that he can build on that could make him an all star caliber player, except athleticism which everyone in the L has. Maybe he'll improve as he couldn't be any worse than he was here in his last year....I hope. Remember how bad he was at finishing? Average ball handler at best, weak vision for a pg.

cowens/oldschool wrote:Your argument that he is that good is weak, no one else sees it. One guy is a legit all star on 2 franchise's. The other guy has never been the best point on his own team ever and hes not a 2 either, hes a tweener not good enough to be a real point. I was really disappointed in him last year, after he had a good playoff the year before, there's a reason hes not here.

Cow the numbers speak for themselves.  All Terry needed was more playing time just like so many other young developing guys in this league.  Danny overspent for Walker.  I believed that he should have keep Terry and I said the same last year.  It is not hindsight.  It's Foresight.  

But don't get it twisted.  Walker is clearly the superior offensive player but that gap is closing.  But he is a weak defender.  Terry is a better defender and rebounder.  Plus he is 4 years younger and does not have a malady to be managed.   For the money given a need to retain both Hayward and Tatum there is no way on God's green earth that Walker is worth $84 million more than Rozier.  This is about value added acquisitions.  

Is anybody out there completely certain that Walker can lead us to a title?  What does his playoff resume look like?  Will his knee buckle the next time he makes a hard cut? Can he check Ben Simmons, Kyle Lowery or Bledsoe?  What about Brogdon or Dragic? can he adequately defend his own position against anyone?

The answer is NO.  Walker is a poor defensive player.

I think the Celtics would have been just as good of a team with TRo this year.

I think they would have been a better team if they keep Baynes and I think they would have been a better team adding a veteran or two instead of wasting multiple draft picks on a collection of scubs, most of whom will not be wearing an NBA uniform for long.

Long term TRo is a better rebounder and defensive player. Offensively and leadership wise Kemba is much better. Health wise TRo may be better . We shall see. Let's win this year and talk about it.

We sure could use a better bench.

I don't know if those guys can stop him either, he put up 40 on us and was unstoppable in that game.

dboss wrote:

cowens/oldschool wrote:Terry may be a starting level guard, but he is no where near good enough to be a starter on a championship or contending team. Kemba Walker is an all star who can put up 40 on a given night. Terry never has been that good a player. Kemba is in the top 5 or 6 of pg's in the league. Terry is not even as good as George Hill or Joe Harris, hes not even in the top 30....

Well this year he was pretty good.  Joe Harris by the way is a wing.  And he is better than the ancient George Hill.  Making up stuff is a weak argument.

The numbers this year tell a different story.

IMO, TR shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as KW. Numbers are numbers and they can be used in a (pardon the pun) number of ways but in no way would I have kept Rozier around with the belief that he could be a started and help us win a championship. Let Danny, Wyc and the other guys figure out the dollars.