Who Should Be Our "First Guard Off The Bench"?

https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/1/20/22234796/battle-for-first-guard-off-bench-heating-up-boston-celtics-payton-pritchard-jeff-teague-kemba-walker



The battle for “first guard off the bench” is heating up


Will we continue to see both backup point guard sharing the floor off the bench?


By AdamTaylorNBA@AdamTaylorNBA  Jan 20, 2021, 8:00am EST



Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images


There’s never been a doubt that Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart were the head honchos in Boston’s guard rotation, but simmering under the surface, a fierce battle for the “first guard off the bench” spot has continued to heat up.

Walker’s absence over the first thirteen games has inevitably afforded additional minutes to other guards in the rotation and provided an early season tryout for both the veteran Jeff Teague and upstart rookie Payton Pritchard. Whereas Teague has struggled for consistency to begin the season, Pritchard has hit the ground running, captivating the hearts of fans everywhere in the process.

When he first signed in Boston, it’s doubtful that Teague expected to be jostling for playing time with a first-year guard who many deemed a reach with the 26th pick. The Indiana native’s acquisition as additional veteran talent, a player that can guide the bench unit while the stars catch a breather was supposed to fill a gaping void in the teams’ rotation. Yet, the emergence of Pritchard has thrown a spanner in the works.

In terms of opportunity, both guards are receiving equal consideration from the coaching staff. Both Teague and Pritchard are averaging twenty-ish minutes a game; both are averaging seven shot attempts per contest, and both are operating with a modest usage rate.

According to Cleaning The Glass, Teague is yet to see the floor without Pritchard sharing his air space. The team is a plus 11.9 in points differential throughout those possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 60.

However, Pritchard has spent considerable amounts of floor time guiding the offense without Teague on the floor. The 6’2’ rookie has played 526 possessions; 293 of them have come as the lead guard. The Celtics are plus 13.7 in points differential with Pritchard at the helm.

Despite the notion that neither guard will set the world alight defensively, both perform admirably, making hustle plays and forcing the offense into bad decisions. Statistically, Teague has Pritchard marginally beat.

But how do you contextualize defensive impact? Is it steals? Defensive rating? Or effort levels? To fully understand a player’s defensive activity, you need to dig a little deeper than just defensive ratings. That’s where deflections come into the equation; tipped passes that kill offensive advantages are highly valuable, and with just a bit more luck, become steals. Add shot contests into the equation, and the picture starts to become more transparent.

Teague is stripping opponents 1.6 times per game while also garnering 2.2 deflections and contesting 2.5 shots. Compare this to Pritchard’s 1.2 steals per game, 1.8 deflections, and 2.9 shot contests, and it quickly becomes evident that Teague is out working his younger counterpart on the business end of the floor.


Teague vs Pritchard instatscout.com


In terms of offensive differences, Teague favors crafty changes of pace to attack the lane, where he will finish with either his trusty scoop layup or a mid-range floater.

https://streamable.com/kb0vcw

In contrast, Pritchard tends to drift off-ball, finding space beyond the perimeter to maintain shooting motion off the catch. His handle allows him to attack close-outs should they arise, while he’s also shown patience when operating as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll.

https://streamable.com/bmpt46

The differences don’t stop there either. As you can see from the below image, Teague likes to take his shots from the short-mid range area - which generally means a floater. Beyond early floaters, the veteran guard doesn’t tend to fire away from deep; He’s a penetrator who will attack mismatches and put defenses on their heels.


Jeff Teague shot frequency cleaningtheglass.com


Now, look at Pritchard’s frequency below. It’s almost the total opposite, with the rookie preferring to get his work done either on the perimeter or around the rim. These images display shot frequency and not success rate, yet it’s a telling reminder of old school vs. new school. Which style is better suited with the starters? Who can power the second unit at the point?


Payton Pritchard shot frequency Cleaning The Glass


Coach Brad Stevens has a difficult decision ahead of him. Does Stevens stick with the veteran guard he’s openly coveted since entering the league or is Pritchard’s long-term development more critical?

We got a brief glimpse against New York, where Teague was the first guard off the bench, but the rookie logged the most minutes throughout the game. Perhaps Stevens will adopt this approach through the rest of the season, with Pritchard operating as a two and shadowing Marcus Smart.

Unfortunately for Pritchard, regular season performances become quickly forgotten once the playoffs roll around. You live and die by your achievements in the more physical, mentally challenging, emotionally grueling post-season. No amount of college basketball can prepare you for that first taste of a deep playoff run.

It is here, in the playoffs, when a guard of Teague’s experience and caliber pays dividends. So, while Pritchard may win the battle for the regular season playing time, Teague could win the war and earn minutes when they matter most. Or maybe Pritchard does enough over 72 games to prove his value heading into the postseason. Only time will tell and for now, it’s nice knowing that the Celtics have two solid options off the bench.


Bob
MY NOTE: No multiple choice (that would be dumb, since there are only 2 choices) but you can change your mind and your vote. Explanations of your reasoning would be appreciated.


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Bob, Note how the writer craftily lifted a phrase from John Lennon: "has thrown a spanner in the works."

This kind of sounds like the Kyrie situation. Teague has had his best games starting. We're asking an old dog to learn new tricks. I don't know if Brad's plans include Teague starting, but he is much better at scoring when he starts. This would move Kemba to 2, which surprise, surprise is where he thrives. Teague would be 1. Unfortunately, this will screw up Brad's starting two centers who can't throw it in the ocean when playing together philosophy that we have all concluded ain't changing.

Anyone for starting Teague or am I way off base here? I've reduced my basketball philosophy down to one sentence. Run offensive plays that maximize getting the players to their spots on the floor where they wide open and are far above normal in their respective shooting percentages and get the ball to them. Kemba was the perfect example of this Wednesday and he was doing a good part of it by himself!

I know. Simplistic and I know I need to expand a bit, but that's what it is.

Then we would have Teague, Big, JaT, JB and Kemba with PP and MS off the bench first. But that leaves not much defense on the floor to start. MS is just too valuable. This would be more of a scoring line up. If you swap MS for Teague, it's more defensive which leads to TO's and more points. Almost 6 of one, half dozen of another but MS is one touch hombre.

Thoughts? Anyone? Something D-O-O Economics?

db

Six of one, a half-dozen of the other.

Repeat.

For now, until March, better for Kemba to come off the bench in my humble opinion. I still don't want him to get too many minutes until his knee has fully recovered. Start JT; JB; DT or TT or RW; Teague or Pritchard; and Smart. In time I'd like to see Nesmith in there as a starting 3, but he has to earn it. Ditto for Romeo.

The two big lineup which quite obviously does not work is a testament to Brad's stubbornness. I wish he would look at the stats when Daniel and Tristan are out there together.

I have no problem with Teague starting and Kemba coming off the bench.

cowens/oldschool,

How about Teague and Kemba starting?  Or does that make us way too small?  

db

At this point I do not see much value in Teague starting or even coming off the bench instead of PP.

It has been only 11-12 games, but I see Teague as a serviceable backup guard that can be thrown in to absorb minutes. He does not move the needle more than PP neither on defense nor on offense at this point in his career it seems.

So for me - play PP as much as possible, develop him with the young core. I do not see us winning it all as currently constructed. The only possible way I see is if somehow more than a couple of our young role players REALLY take a leap this year and become starter level material on an average team. I was thinking RWill, PP and GWill all have to take a real leap. After watching Semi O starting to finally take the next step most of us have long ago stopped hoping he would I would say he is in the mix as well. So 3 out of this 4 minimum for a championship, baring injuries to the 2 Js and at least serviceable Kemba-knees come playoff time.

A lot of ifs in there so I am inclined to not have high hopes for a win this year. For me plan maximum would be Finals appearance.

dbrown4 wrote:cowens/oldschool,

How about Teague and Kemba starting?  Or does that make us way too small?  

db

I’d rather go with Teague and Smart starting, Kemba off the bench could be very lethal....

I probably go with Teague because of his experience. Down the road a bit when PP has more experience then he likely gets the nod.

dboss wrote:I probably go with Teague because of his experience.  Down the road a bit when PP has more experience then he likely gets the nod.

Jeez Teague is now scaring me he was so bad last night. I actually loved seeing Theis with RWill together last night. RWill was rusty in his first game back, but hopefully he can get back to where he was soon. Our best backcourt talent wise is Kemba and Jaylen. I would now go with Kemba Brown Tatum Theis RWill, would love to see how that line up does for stretches, with Smart now coming off bench.

Me too Cow. Kemba..Jaylen..Jayson.

dboss wrote:I probably go with Teague because of his experience.  Down the road a bit when PP has more experience then he likely gets the nod.

I think that is now looking like the most likely scenario.