Celts vs Bucks - Round 2, Game 1 - Pregame Thoughts

I figured I'll get this started early and add to it as excitement for Sunday's game 1 builds to a crescendo.

Khris Middleton will miss the entire series.  

Translation, Middleton will not play another game until next season.  The Bucks do not have quality wing depth to match up with the two best teammates remaining in the playoffs.  Jayson and Jaylen are the two best one, two punch remaining.  This factor alone opens up all sorts of matchup advantages for the Celtics.

I had the Celtics winning Round 2 against anybody that they played but this really does give us the edge.

A great novelist could not script this any better.

The key Matchups

There are now just 2 real significant ones with KM gone.

Giannis with MVP numbers vs the Bulls (28.6 PPG, 13.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists)  he is an absolute beast so it will take a team defensive effort to make him work harder.  We have multiple guys that can be the primary defender against him.  The biggest factor in slowing him down will be to pick him up early.  When he gets into his free flowing drives from up top he has a tremendous knack for slithering through creases in the defense and getting to the cup.  The Celtics can take some of those possessions away from him.  We will come at him from all angles and compromise things like his patented spin move.  

Jrue Holiday has been the 2nd leading scorer on the Bucks during their 5 game round 1 series.  We got our own version of Holiday in Marcus Smart.  Those two are probably the most physical point guards in the league.  Marcus will bring his DPOY game to the party.  This will be a neutralizing matchup.

Positional Advantages

At the point we have Marcus, Derrick and Peyton.  They have Holiday and Jevon Carter. That is it unless you have Giannis also play a lot of point but then you have to throw Tatum into the mix.  In any case, the Celtics have the better and deeper options at the point.

Brook Lopez (The Android)  and Bobby Portis will play at the 5.  Serge Ibaka was totally irrelevant in 4 games played against the Bulls.  Giannis will also play some center.  The Celtics will roll out their dominating 2 big lineup,  Now we know for certain that Theis can also rotate in and maintain our advantage.  Our hidden weapon is Grant Williams. He makes our front line super physical and more diverse.  I'll take our centers against theirs.  I expect the Celtics to force coach Bud to pull Lopez out of the lineup.  He will not be logging 28 MPG against our group.

Our pair of guard/wings are better than any two that they have.  They got  Grayson the tripper, plus sharp shooter Pat Connaughton and the aged Wesley Matthews.  Without Khris Middleton the talent gap is huge.  Undeniable edge to Boston.

Coaching

Bud is a championship level coach and Ime is a rookie coach.  Both of them were assistant coaches under POP.  It is hard to believe that Ime is already a great coach. IMO, he is the best two way coach of the Celtics since Tommy.  Advantage Celtics.

Intangibles

The Celtics have home court because the Bucks blinked first and did not want any part of a matchup with the Nets.  They remind me of a heavyweight champion that is ducking a contender.  While they dispatched the Bull with relative ease, they are ill prepared to play Boston after their cup cake round 1 win.

The Bucks are one of several teams on our payback list.  Our 5 game playoff loss to them was shocking.  Even more shocking was that KI sabotaged our team.  Now it is the Bucks turn to feel the wrath of a team that intends to take away their crown.  Kyrie has been banished...next.

The Celtics will win Game 1.

JB has a sore Hammy.

The Celtics will need to closely monitor the situation. Maybe hold him back some.

We are 24 hours and some change away from tipoff for game 1.

The Celtics are favors by 4.5 points.

This series is about matchups.  With Middleton ruled out of this game and the series the Celtics have a big advantage in matchups.

The Celtics have to slow down Giannis.  

The Bucks on the other hand have to deal with both Jayson and Jaylen.  They do not have enough wing defenders to do that.  They have to play Al Horford on the perimeter. They have to check Rob at the cup.  They have to out battle Marcus all over the court. They have to match the physicality that Grant bring to the table.  They have to stop Tatum (the best player in this series) from doing anything he wants to do.  They have to withstand the assault coming from Jaylen Brown.  No one on their team can stay in front of him.

Giannis and Bobby Portis have been great on the glass but I expect our bigs to win their positional matchups.   Portis is averaging 11.4 RPG in 5 playoff games.  We should be able to turn him back to normal.  Ime will devise a plethora of schemes to make Giannis miserable. Smart can and will bump with Holiday and Jaylen will shut down their 2's. White and Theis will round out the edges.

With KM out they will be heavily dependent on Holiday scoring more and they must get solid contributions from Allen and Connaughton.  

The Bucks need a perfect storm to win this series but it is not going to happen.  The Celtics will not let the Bucks do all of the things that they need to do to win.

The beat down begins tomorrow.  Once again we will see a progressive tightening of the screws as we squeeze the life out of them.  Way before this series is over, the Bucks will already know that they cannot win.

The Celtics sweep over the Nets was obviously impressive but I can see that they have not clicked on all cylinders yet.

Basically, we can play much better.

With KM gone the Bucks are toast. Even with Khris playing the Celts would have won. Doubt Philly will beat Miami now that Embiid is out. #1 goal of this series vs MIL - win. #2 goal - stay healthy.

worcester wrote:With KM gone the Bucks are toast. Even with Khris playing the Celts would have won. Doubt Philly will beat Miami now that Embiid is out.  #1 goal of this series vs MIL - win. #2 goal - stay healthy.

Worcester

I agree. I would have taken the Celtics with or without Khris. With no Embid to worry about, the Heat have a huge advantage. However both Butler and Lowery are dealing with issues (hammy for Kyle and a knee with Jimmy) I still think that they have enough provided those injuries are not severe enough to put them on the shelf for round 2.

Your reference to staying healthy is paramount.

I really like the way the Bucks play and carry themselves on the court except for bug eyes. The Heat are a different story. I do not like them one bit.

I fully agree dboss. The Bucks have a good spirit about them, except for Grayson Allen who is a dirty player, and I detest him for that. The Heat are not good sports, a tradition that started with Duane Wade crippling Rajon in the playoffs. I will never root for the Heat - even against the Lakers who have thankfully dug themselves into a very deep hole.

Jared Weiss
@JaredWeissNBA
“I would go to the referees & say, ‘I’m gonna show you my hands at all times during the possession.’”

Grant Williams showed the NBA he can be a lockdown defender against Kevin Durant.

Next up: Giannis


Bob
MY NOTE:  There are offensive highlights in this film, and Grant had a very good offensive game in Game 4, but there are still plenty of defensive sequences.  You can absolutely see how obvious he is holding his hands out where the refs can see them.





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https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/why-robert-williams-most-important-player-bucks-celtics-series


Why Time Lord is most important player in Bucks-C's series


20H AGO

BY CHRIS FORSBERG
CELTICS INSIDER



In a series involving a former MVP, a player that might wiggle his way into the top five in voting for that award this season, two All-Stars, and two All-Defense stalwarts, it feels somewhat odd to suggest that somebody else might be the most important player when the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks joust in Round 2 of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

But such is the case when you have two talent-filled teams and one Robert Williams.

At the end of Boston’s four-game sweep of the Nets, Williams got a chance to shake some of the rust accumulated during a month-long absence following late-season meniscus surgery. The Celtics are hoping a long ramp to Sunday’s Game 1 at TD Garden will further aid Williams in looking more like the roaming menace whose presence makes you wonder if Boston’s defense this season has a chance to be historically good.


Williams will not be the one assigned to Giannis Antetokounmpo (he’ll get occasional reps but will almost always have help at the center spot). But Williams will have a heavy hand in supporting 35-year-old Al Horford with that assignment. The Celtics will ask Williams to roam off perimeter shooters and provide additional aid near the basket whenever Antetokounmpo attacks.

If Williams forces Antetokounmpo to think twice about drives or settle for perimeter jump shots, then the Celtics have a much better chance of emerging in what very likely will be a grind-it-out series.

It’s hard to get a firm gauge on Williams’ potential impact because the Celtics and Bucks played three of their four meetings this season in calendar year 2021, and before Boston shifted Williams to his free safety role. Still, in the 38 minutes that Williams was on the floor with Antetokounmpo, the Bucks had a net rating of minus-14.8 with a meager offensive rating of 98.8.

Antetokounmpo shot 57.1 percent (20 of 35) against Boston in the 64 minutes without Williams on the court and 47.8 percent (11 of 23) when he was. The Bucks were outscored by 12 in those minutes that Antetokounmpo and Williams shared the floor.

Boston’s numbers with Horford on the floor were maybe even more glossy, spotlighting his ability to make things as difficult as possible for Antetokounmpo. But, especially with the absence of Khris Middleton putting an even greater emphasis on Antetokounmpo’s offensive output, the Celtics desperately need someone like Williams to help make everything even tougher on the former MVP.


In three games against the Bucks this season, Williams averaged 11 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and two blocks over 33.7 minutes per game. Boston had its preferred starting lineup intact for a December 17 matchup and outscored the Bucks’ starters by nine over nine minutes of matchup time. Most notably, Boston had a defensive rating of 88.9 in what is an admittedly minuscule sample.

The Celtics enjoyed some measure of success against Antetokounmpo in Horford’s first go-around in green but often had the luxury of deploying beefy lineups that also included a bruiser like Aron Baynes. Building a wall to prevent transition opportunities isn’t as easy this time around but the Celtics have five plus-defenders in their starting lineup -- and are confident in the bench maintaining that standard -- to make everything difficult.

The key will be limiting Antetokounmpo’s opportunities in transition. The Celtics owned the NBA’s best halfcourt defense this season, holding teams to an offensive rating of 90.4 per Cleaning the Glass data. If teams allow Boston to get settled then Marcus Smart can pester at the point of attack, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can swarm with long arms on the perimeter, Horford can hold down the back line, and Williams can pick his spots to pounce.

But even live-ball rebounds can turn into transition opportunities so Boston has to be crisp on both sides. And it’s on the entire team to take on the challenge of limiting Antetokounmpo.

"It’s a team defensive thing against [Antetokounmpo]. Like last series, we feel we have a lot of versatility and size as well, so you can throw different books at him,” said Udoka. "But that is the game for him.


"I think he’s second in the league in points in the paint per game, and so obviously a huge part of it in transition gets him going. So we want to limit his paint points as much as we can, limit the fouls and free throws and obviously, it's easier said than done. But if you can make him score and take certain shots from the perimeter, I think that's beneficial.

"So, the thing with us is meeting him with some physicality, not let him get a head of steam and get into the paint without being touched. Like your pick-up points and your contact points to be a little bit higher than -- a lot of times these guys are touching him almost at the dots or the foul circle and it's too late by that point. So show him that crowd, there's some things we did well during the season against him that will have some carryover, but we understand the task at hand and how he scores and when to take that away from.”

Ultimately, it’s Williams’ defensive impact that could dictate the series. If he has any of the rust displayed against Brooklyn then that puts a huge amount of stress on Horford and Grant Williams to neutralize Antetokounmpo. If Time Lord is back to his chaos-creation ways, then the Celtics are going to put all that stress on a Middleton-less supporting cast.


Bob
MY NOTE:  Forsberg is the President of the Robert Williams Fan Club, so of course he thinks it's all about him, but I disagree.  I think it's all about the other Williams boy, Grant.  We need to stop Giannis in the full court, that's a team effort and not any one Celtic's job, but in the half court I think it'll be Grant trying to keep Giannis out of the paint, not Robert.  I don't think TheTime Lord has the foot speed to stay in front of Giannis and, unlike other players, Giannis is soooo long Robert Williams won't be able to recover and block him from behind as well as he can with shorter players.  You must stay in front of Giannis.


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Gary Washburn @GwashburnGlobe
about 1 hour ago
Brown said his hamstring issue is at the “lower end of the spectrum.” Said he’s ready to go for Game 1. #Celtics


Bob
MY NOTE: I just hope nothing aggravates it. Rest it, Jaylen, use this precious time to rest it.

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Once upon a time in the land of Honalee, there were three Celtics fans - Cowens, dboss, and Worcester - who with their incomparable basketball knowledge and wisdom deemed Grant Williams to be a no-talent player who did not even deserve a spot on a G league roster, much less with the Celtics.

But there was a lone voice Heckling from a distance saying: "Au contraire." [His father was a French teacher.]. "Grant was not selected MVP in the SEC for two years running because he lacked talent and intellect. His day will come, not long after the 0-25 streak from 3, and he will prove to be another wise and valuable draft pick by Danny Ainge."

As they say, "He who laughs last, laughs best."

The Chinese also say: Xiao qu bai bing. "Laughter is the best medicine"

"Rest it, Jaylen, use this precious time to rest it."

More wisdom from the sage of San Carlos.

Hi,
Another point for RWIII is that he can absorb additional 5 fouls from Giannis. Even in his current non-100% state.

AK

sinus(Have you tried Novage?)007 - RWill could even pick up that sixth foul if need be.

Worcester is so correct. I thought Grant was a pimple on the ass of progress.

He has clearly won me over. He is not great by any stretch of the imagination but he has developed into a solid 2-way rotation guy that help us win. He is still learning how to use his girth and once he perfects his positioning techniques his rebounding should spike.

Now if we can just get Derrick White to knock down an ocean wide look we will be in the money. Derrick is overdue for a 20+ point game including multiple 3 point makes.

Yes, D White developing as a shooter is my one remaining wish for the Celts, besides winning #18 this year.

I sure was wrong on GWill, and vs Nets who saw him shutting down Durant like that? Come on be honest, he was masterful sealing off Durant with his bulk and moving his feet and bothering Durant getting into his air space. Playoffs is the ultimate proving ground, what a spark he is both ends.

Cow, now I too marvel at GWill's foot speed on D, how he keeps his hands up and wide, and how he uses his girth and strength to wall off offensive players.

Smelling a game 1 victory today!

I'm just saying. I can feel it.

FEROCIOUS DEFENSE

Speaking of smelling, I realize it's now time to take my daily shower. Want to be fresh for the game.