Our Magic Numbers

Sean Grande @SeanGrandePBP
yesterday
Sixers and Bucks win easily. NBA EAST 1. Milwaukee 52-20 --- 2. BOSTON 50-23 2 1/2 3. Philadelphia 49-23 3 Celtics play 6 of their final 9 at home starting Friday. The Knicks loss in Miami reduces Boston's magic number for first round home court to 1.


Bob
MY NOTE:  I know that nobody is excited about locking up the home court for the 1st round, our ambitions are much higher than that, but we have to start with locking up the 1st round before we can lock up any later rounds.  First things, and rounds, first. Locking up home court in the 2nd round will be much harder, with Philly right on our tail.

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One round at a time, home court is important, no matter what anybody thinks. We need to put on a good run for these last games of the season and begin the playoffs at home, winning isn't everything, it is the only thing. As said by he great Red Auerbach

RosalieTCeltics wrote:One round at a time, home court is important, no matter what anybody thinks. We need to put on a good run for these last games of the season and begin the playoffs at home, winning isn't everything, it is the only thing. As said by he great Red Auerbach

   +1

The Celtics should be able to maintain their current seeding provided that they take full advantage of their remaining schedule (6H, 3R)

Both the Sixers and the Bucks have challenging remaining schedule (Each has 6 roads game and only 4 home game left)

The Sixers have the tougher schedule as all 10 remaining game are vs. teams in the top 9.  

There will be a round robin between the Celtics, Bucks and Sixers as all 3 teams will play one another.

4th place Cleveland and 5th play NYK will likely matchup.  The Cavs have the lighter schedule and are currently 4 games up in the loss column.  Unless they crap out NY is not likely to catch them.  In any event one of those teams will lose in the 1st round.  Both of those teams are physical and they have given the Celtics fits.

The Heat would love to avoid the play in round but I do not think they can do it. (5 out of 8 road games) The Nets are in 6th place and have 7 games remaining at home and 3 on the road.

With that in mind a first round matchup with Miami seems like a very distinct possibility.  We are 2-2 this year against them.

Things should become clearer in another week or 2.

I would be worried if I were PHI and MIL. Here's why.

I play "free" Texas Hold 'Em poker online just to pass time. I've noticed something. Not all the time, but whenever I think I have a great hand and I feel I'm playing against a fish, I typically push all-in. When our cards are turned up either pre-flop, flop, turn or river, I'm usually way ahead almost 90% of the time. But by the time the fifth and final card on the table is eventually revealed, all the chips on the table wind up moving to the fish, the guy or gal that was initially behind. I know. Maybe I'm the fish.

MIL and PHI have been all over the news lately as probably the two 2023 Eastern Conference Finals teams. Boston has faded temporarily. The cards have been turned up now and Boston is not looking good. We're behind in the No Limit NBA poker game. MIL and PHI are right where we want them. They think they have the best hands, and right now they do. They are playing better than we are....right now. They're ahead.
But the final cards on the board have not been turned up. And when they are, the Celtics are going to be holding up the trophy.

My poker prowess (or lack thereof) and what looked like really bad beats or bad luck used to tick me off until I started looking at my ever growing over total stack of chips over many months. My chip stack marches upward.

Hang on, everyone. We are right where we need to be to bring home Banner 18...playing from behind.

db

We are going to find out if the Celtics are contenders or pretenders.

It is time for our defense to step up.  On offense it is all about ball movement and not falling into an ISO style of play.

The Celtics look great when the ball is moving and not bouncing.  A heavy dose of team basketball should do the trick.

PHI being Santa Claus last night.  We'll take it.  PHI in PHX late tonight (10:00pm) for a B2B.  Definitely worth either recording or staying up.  Maybe PHX can get their heads out of the proverbial asses and toss us another large bone.  

Also, MIL@DEN @ 9:00pm on NBATV, B2B as well.

Yeah, BIG NIGHT TONIGHT while we sit idly by. If a movement is affront, it starts tonight.

db

One game at a time, whether we're playing or not!

MIL and PHI showering us with gifts delivered late last night!!

Now we're only 2 games back of MIL and 2 games ahead of PHI. MIL couldn't beat DEN and PHI couldn't beat PHX.

One game and one game only in front of us. SAS at 6pm tonight. Go out, play our best, do what we do best. No looking ahead or playing down or up to our competition. Just...Play...BASKETBALL....and simply BELIEVE!!!!!!!!

db

Chris Forsberg @ChrisForsberg_
about 45 minutes ago
13 days remaining in 2022-23 regular season. Celtics probabilities, via @Basketball-Reference simulations: 1 seed: 23.6% 2 seed: 74.9% 3 seed: 1.4% Landing 2 seed would mean hosting winner of 7-8 play-in (currently Heat vs Hawks)


Bob
MY NOTE:  Remaining Games at the top of the East.  Milwaukee has an easy schedule closing out.  The games they have against tough opponents are all at home.

1.  Milwaukee (4 home, 3 away)
@ Indiana
Boston
Philadelphia
@ Washington
Chicago
Memphis
@ Toronto


2.  Boston  (4 home, 3 away)
@ Washington
@ Milwaukee
Utah
@ Philadelphia
Toronto
Toronto
Atlanta


3.  Philadelphia  (4 home, 3 away)
Dallas
Toronto
@ Milwaukee
Boston
Miami
@ Atlanta
@ Brooklyn

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Sixers lost again last night in (Denver)

Bucks beat lottery team Detroit.

I can see the Bucks losing 2 or 3 games.

dboss,

They will have to if we want 1st. And again, we have no room for error or surprises if this is what Boston wants.

db

dbrown4 wrote:dboss,

They will have to if we want 1st.  And again, we have no room for error or surprises if this is what Boston wants.  

db

db

This is the time of year when I really lock into what is happening out there.

Every year a big dog gets beat.  It is usually one of several teams that no one wants to play.  Last year that dog that did not bite was the Nets.  This year I predict that either the Sixers or the Bucks will go fishing.  Either the Cavs or the Knicks will be gone in the first round.  Those are 2 very competitive defense ball clubs.

The Sixers have the 2nd most difficult remaining schedule and Harden has missed the last 4 games with a sore Achilles.  Tough situation for a team that made a late run.  That run is over.  

The Bucks have the 5th hardest remaining schedule.  The Celtics are 7th.  This feels like a point in the season where the Celtics go on the road and knock out both the Bucks and the Sixers.  

The Celtics are healthy and when healthy they are one tough out against everybody.  The Sixers have fallen 3 games behind Boston.  That tells me that the Celtics are pretty much a lock for no less than 2nd place.  

The way I see it, the Celtics do not have to settle for 2nd place.  Clearly they will need some help from (gulp) the 26ers, or maybe Memphis or Toronto.  It is not entirely out of the question.  

Last year the Celtics finished 2nd and had to go 7 games in the ECF to get past Miami.  

Celtics were not 100% healthy because Rob was not healthy.

So it all comes down to health.

The Celtics are a deep team across the roster with cross pollination readily at work but there is none of that when it comes to RW.  If he is healthy we will win!

All aboard to Dboss Express!!!  +1,000!!!

db

P.S. Please explain the derivation of the 26ers. I need a laugh!!

That's a wrap on 1st place.  We couldn't fall out of a boat at sea and hit water from 3-ville.  Now it really doesn't matter whether we finish 2nd or 3rd unless PHI continues to fall and CLE takes 3rd.  

Now on to the glaring neon sign called Thursday in MIL.  This will tell us all we need to know.  If this team that showed up for WAS comes out again, it will be an easy win for MIL.  I'll go with that.  That will be two in a row for us.  Not a good look going into the last few games when it looked like we finally had found our asses with both hands.  

I'm a little pissed.  The good news is we're going to lose games in the playoffs.  It only counts as 1 game in the loss column.  Only need to win 4 at a time.  It's not the end of the world.  

Has SIASJ seen enough, going to shut things down and start playing the bench from here on out to get P-Squared and Company some run?  That's looming as well with just a few games left and 1st out of the question now.  Stupid, hair-pulling games like last night will all be forgotten if I get to change my avatar in a couple of months...      

db

Always best to have the 1 seed, but looking like maybe 2 unless we win out and the Bucks drop a couple.

While not the perfect scenario it's not going to cause me any angst. As long as this roster stays healthy and out there on the floor, there should be a nice postseason run about to get underway.

Sean Grande @SeanGrandePBP
yesterday
Bucks win Heat lose Nets win For those of you dreading a Celtics-Heat series (and you know who you are)...not a good night of results. With 11 days left, Miami is now the clear-cut favorite to get Boston in the 2-7 first round series in the East.


Bob


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We have 4 games left.

Milwaukee's Magic Number to clinch the #1 seed = 3.  They are 2 games ahead of us in the loss column, but we own the tiebreaker, so they need any combination of Buck wins and Celtic losses equalling 3 to lock that up.  They have 5 games to play.

Our Magic Number to clinch the #2 seed = 2.  We are up 2 games in the loss column over Philly and we own the tiebreaker, so they have to end up ahead of us, not just tied, to earn 2nd.  They have 5 games left.

If we clinch 2nd our current, and most likely, opponent will be Miami.  In the, in my opinion, unlikely case of us falling to 3rd our current opponent would be Brooklyn.


Bob


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Our magic number for the 2 seed is now down to 1 with the Bucks beating the Sixers last night. Bucks magic number for the one seed is 3. They are up 2 games on us, but we own the tiebreaker. Each team has 4 games remaining. Should be interesting to see how the Celtics play the last four games. Certainly monitoring Rob Williams is a given, but I would like to see JT and JB get some much needed rest. It's a catch 22 the one seed is not out of reach.

The Bucks beat the Sixers last night in Milwaukee.

This means that the Bucks' Magic Number to lock up 1st seed = 2

Our Magic Number to lock up 2nd seed = 1

If we win in Philly tomorrow then that's that.  If we don't we'll still have three chances to win one, or hope they lose one.

Remaining Schedules:

1.  Milwaukee (2 home, 2 away.  1 vs >.500, 1 @ .500, 2 vs <.500)

@ Washington
Chicago
Memphis
@ Toronto


2.  Boston  (3 home, 1 away.  1 >.500, 2 @ .500, 1 <.500)

@ Philadelphia
Toronto
Toronto
Atlanta


3.  Philadelphia  (2 home, 2 away.  3 >.500, 1 <.500 )

Boston
Miami
@ Atlanta
@ Brooklyn


Bob


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I do not see us losing 4 straight.  I guess I can pencil us in for the 2nd seed.  

The play in will produce our opponent.

dboss,

Nor do I see MIL losing two more games than we do over the next 4 games to close out the season. We're not winning 4-in-a-row, so that leaves 3-1 vs 1-3 for MIL. Not happening. We don't need the #1 seed with our road record. We will have to call on the ghosts of Celtics Team's Past, though. Also, I hope our vulgar display of wealth vs. MIL recently doesn't whipsaw us when it counts the most.  

Time to start resting the starters...although I'd wait a couple of days just in case MIL does implode.  

Again, MIL is in for yet another rude awakening.  Oz has spoken.  I'm just sayin'!!

db

Bobby Manning @RealBobManning
yesterday
#Bulls now locked into 10 seed. They will not see the #Celtics R1. #Heat have magic # of 1 to clinch 7. #Hawks have magic # of 1 to clinch 8. It's looking like Boston will see MIA/ATL winner next week.


We are locked into #2.


Bob


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I am looking for an Atlanta first round, not afraid of Miami, just think it will be a longer series and the less we play in the first round, the better. So, does that mean Philly plays ?? The Nets? Cleveland vs NY???

The Nuggets lost to the Suns last night.

That locks up the #2 record in the NBA for the Celtics, and secures home court advantage in every series except for the EC Finals vs Milwaukee.


Bob

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RosalieTCeltics wrote:I am looking for an Atlanta first round, not afraid of Miami, just think it will be a longer series and the less we play in the first round, the better.  So, does that mean Philly plays ?? The Nets?  Cleveland vs NY???

Rosalie

Miami is a tough out for Boston.  From what I have seen over the years, the reason why is because Miami plays more zone defenses than any team in the NBA.  Miami does not have enough great on the ball defenders to play mostly man to man defense.  The Celtics have been a heavy ISO team for a while now but ISO basketball plays into Miami's defensive zone sets.  If the Celtics simply move the basketball and have a guy in and around the foul line area with good hands and passing skills they can (collapse the zone).  I expect the Celtics to make open looks as we have a roster filled with shooters.

Atlanta scores a lot of points but they also give up a lot of points.  There is nothing the Hawks can do to stop our offense.  If you want to see a high scoring affair, Atlanta would be the team to play.

As of today the Hawks are #7 in offensive rating and #8 in defensive rating.  That is not bad but I also look at the point differentials.  They are only +0.4

The Heat are ranked #25 in both offensive and defensive ratings.  Their point differential is -0.4

The Celtics are #1 in point differential at 6.4 and they are Ranked #1 in defensive rating and #3 in offensive rating.

Both the Hawks and the Heat are below average road teams with identical 17-23 records.

I would probably give the Heat the edge over the Hawks because they have a mental toughness and they can grind you down if you cannot beat their zones.