Playoff Seeding Updates and Magic Numbers Countdown

MY NOTE:  I decided, rather than gum up a thread for league-wide discussion and updates, I'd create a new thread dedicated solely to the playoff seeding race.



PLAYOFF UPDATE, BEFORE GAMES 3/5/24


The leaders all won last night except for OKC (Thank you, Lakers!).

Tonight's games of significance:  Boston @ Cleveland.  Miami hosts Detroit but that would just rearrange the deck chairs @ #6, it doesn't affect our Magic Numbers.



Team............................Season Records............Games Back (loss column).............Conference Records...........Games Back (loss column)
Boston..........................48-12..........................------------- (-------------)..............33-6................................-------------
Minnesota.....................43-19...........................6 (7)..........................................30-10...............................3 1/2 (4)
Oklahoma City...............42-19...........................6 1/2 (7)....................................26-15...............................8 (9)
Milwaukee.....................41-21...........................8 (9).........................................29-13...............................5 1/2 (7)


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER):

Play-in Berth locked in.

7 - number to guarantee a playoff berth with a 6th seed, currently held by Orlando @ 35-26.

8 - number to guarantee a home court series with 4th seed, currently NY Knicks @ 36-25.

13 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court in the East.  Milwaukee is now #2.  H2H is 1-1.  We have 2 more games against them.

15 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court all the way through the playoffs to #18.  Minny @ 43-19.


Bob


.

PLAYOFF UPDATE, AFTER GAMES 3/6/24


Atlanta beat Cleveland.  That brings our lead over them back to 9 in the loss column, same as Milwaukee.  They are 1/2 game behind the Bucks.

GSW beat Milwaukee in SF by 35.  

OKC hung on to beat Portland.


Team............................Season Records............Games Back (loss column).............Conference Records...........Games Back (loss column)
Boston..........................48-13..........................------------- (-------------)..............33-7................................-------------
Minnesota.....................43-19...........................5 1/2 (6)....................................30-10...............................3 (3)
Oklahoma City...............43-19...........................5 1/2 (6)....................................27-15...............................7 (eight)
Milwaukee.....................41-22...........................8 (9).........................................29-13...............................5 (6)


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER):

Play-in Berth locked in.

7 - number to guarantee a playoff berth with a 6th seed, currently held by Miami @ 35-26.

7 - number to guarantee a home court series with 4th seed, currently Magic @ 37-26.  3 teams with 26 losses (#4 Magic, #5 Knicks & #6 Heat).  We own all the tiebreakers, so it doesn't matter that Orlando has a game in hand. They need to beat us, not tie us, therefore #6 and #4 is the same to us.

12 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court in the East.  Milwaukee is now #2.  H2H is 1-1.  We have 2 more games against them.

15 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court all the way through the playoffs to #18.  Minny and OKC @ 43-19.


Bob


.

This is great!!  You going to give us live updates until all the obstacles are wiped off the list like that db character and his BOS vs. MIL 10-game head-to-head thread?!  haha

db

dbrown4 wrote:This is great!!  You going to give us live updates until all the obstacles are wiped off the list like that db character and his BOS vs. MIL 10-game head-to-head thread?!  haha

db

dbrown,

If you would rather do this I'm good with that.  Just let me know so I know to keep going or to stop.


Bob


.

I was just messing with you! Your system is much more complicated than mine. Keep yours going!

db

Minnesota Timberwolves star  Karl-Anthony Towns tore the meniscus in his left knee and is out indefinitely, league sources said Thursday. Towns, who was an All-Star last month, has been gathering second opinions on the injury over the past 24 hours, the sources said. Towns, the 7-footer, is averaging 22.1 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game and shooting 50.6 percent from the field, including 42.3 percent from beyond the 3-point line.
Source: The Athletic


Bob
MY NOTE:  This should be all OKC needs to win the West.


.

We have to keep our guys healthy, Poor Josh Richardson out for the year, and, god forbid, they just announced that Ben Simmons is out fot the year, is having back surgery. Lots of stuff happening, better be careful out there guys

gyso wrote:Bob,

Is that close to what happened to Rob Williams a couple years ago?

Didn't Rob come back later in the playoffs after getting his cleaned out?  He wasn't at close to 100% and he had to get it cleaned out (scar tissue?) after the season was over and was not ready for the next season?

Bad luck and bad timing for the Timberwolves.

gyso,

KAT is currently getting a second opinion (You're ugly too!!) and will determine a course of treatment after that.  

What this says to my admittedly non-medical mind is that there is enough damage that

1.  swelling has made it tough to produce a diagnosis that would lend itself to a clear roadmap forward or;
2.  the diagnosis is bad.  Surgery has been recommended and he wants more professional input before going under the knife.

Either one of those is not good for KAT.  If it's #1 his knee is so swollen it is interfering with diagnosis then this is not a "give it a couple of weeks" type of thing.  As it is it has been diagnosed as a "miniscus tear", not a "sprain" or some other lesser injury.  The question, therefore, is probably "how badly is it torn?" Guaranteed the first thing they did when he went to the locker room was to ice it down.  If 24-48 hours of ice wasn't enough to reduce the swelling to where you can get a good clinical look at it that's not good.  

If it's #2 he's done until next season.  There's a 6-8 week recovery period just to get back to "normal activity".  If you have a physical job, and I'd call NBA basketball a "physical job", you may need more time off.  8 weeks from today is May 2nd, he hasn't had surgery yet so the clock hasn't started ticking yet, and he'll need more than 8 weeks.  If he's one lucky SOB the Wolves are looking at mid-to-late May before he's back and I think even that is very, very optimistic.

https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/treatments/21508-meniscus-surgery


The playoffs start April 20th (fortunately for Minny they are not in the play-in tournament).  Could he be in playing shape by then?  I say "unlikely", and that's only if it's a very minor tear.  It will take weeks for it to get anywhere near safe to start working out and at least several weeks of gradually increasing tests and workouts after that. The fact that his downtime is described as "indefinitely" doesn't make it sound like it just needs rest, does it?

The Conference Finals are scheduled to begin no later than May 6th, but could move up to May 4th if earlier series end quickly.  As I said above May 2nd is 8 weeks, that's not long enough, and that's the Conference Finals.  Without Towns there is a distinct possibility Minny doesn't even make it there.


Bob


.

LAYOFF UPDATE, AFTER GAMES 3/7/24


As I am sure we all know we lost in Denver last night.  


Minny beat Indy in Indy by 2.  Perhaps the reports of their death are a bit premature.


Miami lost to Dallas.



Team............................Season Records............Games Back (loss column).............Conference Records...........Games Back (loss column)
Boston..........................48-14..........................------------- (-------------)..............33-7................................-------------
Minnesota.....................44-19...........................4 1/2 (5)....................................30-10...............................3 (3)
Oklahoma City...............43-19...........................5 (5)..........................................27-15...............................7 (eight)
Milwaukee.....................41-22...........................7 1/2 (eight)...............................29-13...............................5 (6)


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER):

Play-in Berth locked in.


6 - number to guarantee a playoff berth with a 6th seed, currently held by Miami @ 35-27, tied with Philly.

7 - number to guarantee a home court series with 4th seed, currently Magic @ 37-26.  2 teams with 26 losses (#4 Magic, #5 Knicks).  We own all the tiebreakers, so it doesn't matter that Orlando has games in hand. They need to beat us, not tie us.

12 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court in the East.  Milwaukee is now #2.  H2H is 1-1.  We have 2 more games against them.

15 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court all the way through the playoffs to #18.  Minny and OKC @ 43-19. Denver creeping up to 43-20 and own the H2H tiebreaker against us. That means if they catch us, tie us, they're #1.


Bob


.

Minny @ Cleveland tonight and Miami @ OKC.

Rooting for the Cavs and the Heat to take some of the sting out of last night's loss.


Bob


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PLAYOFF UPDATE, AFTER GAMES 3/8/24



As a result of Denver creeping up in the standings AND owning the H2H tiebreaker against us I am including them in this graphic.  They just need to tie us for season record, their Conference record is irrelevant because they own the 1st tiebreaker. Same with Cleveland except that we own the tiebreaker against them, therefore their Conference record is irrelevant. They need a better regular season record than us to take the #1 seed.



Team............................Season Records............Games Back (loss column).............Conference Records...........Conference Games Back (loss column)
Boston..........................48-14..........................------------- (-------------)..............33-7................................-------------
Oklahoma City...............44-19...........................5 (5)..........................................27-15...............................7 (eight)
Minnesota.....................44-20...........................5 (6)..........................................30-10...............................3 (3)
Denver.........................43-20............................5 1/2 (6)....................................N/A..................................N/A
Cleveland.....................41-22............................7 1/2 (eight)...............................N/A..................................N/A
Milwaukee....................41-23............................8 (9).........................................29-13...............................5 (6)


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER):

Play-in Berth locked in.


The race in the East is so close that our Magic Numbers aren't changing much @ #4 and #5 because Orlando and NY played each other and are just swapping playoff seeds without affecting our Magic Number.  The Knicks are now in 4th and Orlando in 5th, but NY's record is now the same as Orlando's was yesterday, so our Magic Number against the #4 team is the same, it's just against a different team that made up the "game in hand" Orlando had on them.


Cleveland beat Minny in Cleveland in OT, dropping Minny to #2 in the West and elevating Cleveland to #2 in the Eastern Standings, but not in playoff seeding against us.  That is talked about more below. 


Miami lost to OKC in the SEGABABA.  OKC's win lifts them to 1st in the West.  As you can see below our CONFERENCE tiebreaker advantage is better with OKC than with Minny, we have a bigger lead in Conference record, HOWEVER, we have one more game against OKC, in Boston, on 4/3.  They currently have a 1-0 lead in the H2H tiebreaker. We don't want to lose that game because, with a 2-0 record against us H2H, they can just tie us for the #1 seed.  Miami is still #6 because Philly lost another.  Philly is 3-7 in their last 10.


The leBron-less Lakers held on to beat Milwaukee by 1 in LA.



5 - number to guarantee a playoff berth with a 6th seed, currently held by Miami @ 35-28, tied with Philly.  A 14 game lead with 19 left for both of them.

7 - number to guarantee a home court series with 4th seed, currently Knicks @ 37-26.  We own all the tiebreakers, so it doesn't matter that NY has games in hand. They need to beat us, not tie us.  They have 19 games left, we have 20.

11 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court in the East.  Cleveland is now #2.  Our H2H vs Bucks is 1-1, 2-1 vs Cavs.  We have 2 more games against the Bucks and none vs Cavs.  A regular season tie vs Cleveland still keeps our #1 seed.  A regular season tie vs Milwaukee depends upon the results of our two remaining H2Hs.

15 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court all the way through the playoffs to #18.  OKC @ 44-19. Denver creeping up to 43-20 and own the H2H tiebreaker against us. That means if they catch us, tie us, they're #1.  If OKC wins in Boston on 4/3 they will own the H2H tiebreaker too.


Bob


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John Karalis @John_Karalis
about 8 hours ago
Is there a more conflicting feeling for Celtics fans than the Lakers beating the Bucks?


Bob
MY NOTE:  Nope, no conflict in me at all.  We don't need to worry about the Lakers unless and until we both make it to the Championship round.  Keep your eyes on the prize right in front of us and forget about yesterdays.  LA's victory reduced the Magic Number to eliminate them from contention for the #1 seed in the East, and that is a key goal.  The faster we, and/or with the help of any other team, can eliminate them the faster our two remaining games against them become moot.


.

PLAYOFF SEEDING UPDATE, AFTER GAMES 3/9/24


We won in Phoenix.  The great thing about winning (aside from winning is a lot more fun than losing) is that I get to reduce ALL Magic Numbers regardless of what anybody else does.

Denver beat Utah.



Team............................Season Records............Games Back (loss column).............Conference Records...........Conference Games Back (loss column)
Boston..........................49-14..........................------------- (-------------)..............33-7................................-------------
Oklahoma City...............44-19...........................5 (5)..........................................27-15...............................7 (eight)
Minnesota.....................44-20...........................5 (6)..........................................30-10...............................3 (3)
Denver.........................44-20............................5 1/2 (6)....................................N/A..................................N/A
Cleveland.....................41-22............................7 1/2 (eight)...............................N/A..................................N/A
Milwaukee....................41-23............................8 (9).........................................29-13...............................5 (6)

Denver and Cleveland are N/A for Conference Records because we own the 1st tiebreaker (H2H) vs Cleveland and lost the first tiebreaker vs Denver.  Cleveland needs to have a better regular season record than us to earn #1 while Denver only needs to tie us.  If Denver overtakes OKC for the #1 seed in the West that tiebreaker edge over us will affect the Magic Number.  If they don't then the Magic Number is vs OKC or Minny.


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  19 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth locked in.


I think I've been screwing these numbers up for the last week.  I think they're right now.  Could someone just take a look to make sure I'm not chasing my own tail?


3 - number to guarantee a playoff berth with a 6th seed, currently held by Miami @ 35-28, tied with Philly.  14 loss lead.  If we lose the next 14 games, and they win their next 14, we're tied with 5 left.  That means we would need to have some combo of wins and their losses totaling 3 out of 5.  Therefore our MN is 3, right?  

4 - number to guarantee a home court series with 4th seed, currently Knicks @ 37-26.  We own all the tiebreakers. They need to beat us, not tie us.  A 12 loss lead.  If we lose the next 12, and they win their next 12, we're tied with 7 left.  We need a combo of wins and their losses totaling 4, so our MN is 4?

10 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court in the East.  Cleveland is now #2 @ 41-22.  Our H2H vs Bucks is 1-1, 2-1 vs Cavs.  We have 2 more games against the Bucks and none vs Cavs.  A regular season tie vs Cleveland still keeps our #1 seed.  A regular season tie vs Milwaukee depends upon the results of our two remaining H2Hs.  If we lose the next 8 and Cleveland wins the next 8 they tie us.  19-8=11, but they need to beat us, so it's 10?

15 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court all the way through the playoffs to #18.  OKC @ 44-19. Denver has crept up to 44-20 and own the H2H tiebreaker against us. That means if they catch us, tie us, they're #1.  If OKC wins in Boston on 4/3 they will own the H2H tiebreaker too.  19-5=14.  Because we still have a game vs OKC that tiebreaker is undecided.  So, just to be conservative, I'm assuming we lose that tiebreaker and we need to have the better regular season record.  So our 5 loss lead is really a 4 loss lead because we cannot let them tie us.  19-4=15.



RELEVANT GAMES TONIGHT:

Bucks @ Clippers.  This is a SEGABABA for LA.  A loss by Milwaukee makes Cleveland more secure and our remaining 2 games vs Bucks less relevant.

Wizards @ Heat.  A very likely win for Miami @ home.

Sixers @ Knicks.  A likely win by NY.  An upset by the Sixers would reduce our Magic Number to lock in a home court series but Philly's 3-7 in their last 10.

Nets @ Cavaliers.  A very likely win by Cleveland over a team that isn't even in the play-in.

Grizzlies @ OKC.  A very likely win by the 2nd best team in the NBA over the 6th worst.


All in all, the likelihood of our Magic Numbers being reduced thanks to our opponents stumbling is quite low by this time tomorrow.


Bob


.

I think I need to go into the garage and pull the box from Davidson College that has all my upper level Complex Analysis and Probability/Stats books and notes just to get in the front door of this thread here!  And my wife says I dont' use my degrees for anything!!  Great work, bobh!  This must be a labor of love for you. More power to you.  

As for the rest of us, don't try to read this thread with a couples of beers behind you.  It's tight and makes sense but all of your cylinders need to be firing!

Celtics need to take Dori's advice....Just Keep Winning, Just Keep Winning!!

db

P.S. If playoffs were starting today, MIL cannot like who they see!! That would be hilarious.

all just numbers to me, just tell me that they are going to win the EC division and what date!!!!!!!!!!!!!! then the rest will fall in place

PLAYOFF SEEDING UPDATE, AFTER GAMES 3/10/24


Other than OKC thumping Memphis I didn't get any of my predictions correct.  This is why I don't gamble.


Milwaukee beat the Clippers.  Lost to the LeBron-less Lakers, that are 7th in the West and 17th in the league, but beats the #4 team in the West and 6th best in the league.  Fortunately for us a Bucks loss works just as well no matter who they lose to.

OKC beat Memphis.

The team that was tied with Detroit for the worst record in the league, Washington, just beat the Miami Heat in Miami and the Brooklyn Nets beat Cleveland in Cleveland.  We live in an Age of Miracles.

The Pacers beat the Magic in Orlando.

Philly beat the Knicks in NY.

First the LeBron-less Lakers beat the Bucks and tonight, with LeBron, they beat Minny.  This puts Minny 2 games in the loss column back from OKC.



Team............................Season Records............Games Back (loss column).............Conference Records...........Conference Games Back (loss column)
Boston..........................49-14..........................------------- (-------------)..............33-7................................-------------
Oklahoma City...............45-19...........................4 1/2 (5)....................................28-15...............................7 (eight)
Denver.........................44-20............................5 1/2 (6)....................................N/A..................................N/A
Minnesota.....................44-21...........................5 1/2 (7)...................................30-11...............................4 (4)
Milwaukee....................42-23............................8 (9).........................................29-13...............................5 (6)
Cleveland.....................41-23............................8 1/2 (9)..,.................................N/A..................................N/A

Denver and Cleveland are N/A for Conference Records because we own the 1st tiebreaker (H2H) vs Cleveland and lost the first tiebreaker vs Denver.  Cleveland needs to have a better regular season record than us to earn #1 while Denver only needs to tie us.  If Denver overtakes OKC for the #1 seed in the West that tiebreaker edge over us will affect the Magic Number.  If they don't then the Magic Number is vs OKC or Minny.


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  19 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth locked in.


Sean Grande just put out a tweet that provides the Magic Numbers.  I'm just going to use his, but I don't care about #2 or #3 or #5 seeds.  For me, after we're in the playoffs, it's all about home court.

Sean Grande
@SeanGrandePBP

Cavs, Heat, Magic and Knicks all lose Sunday.

Sixers jump to 6th, Heat fall to 8th.

CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 15 (OKC)
1-seed: 11 (Milwaukee)
2-seed: 10 (Cleveland)
3-seed: 6 (New York)
4-seed: 5 (Orlando)
Playoffs: 5 (Indiana)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


5 - number to guarantee a playoff berth with a 6th seed, currently held by Philly @ 36-28.  14 loss lead.  If we lose the next 14 games, and they win their next 14, we're tied with 4 left.  That means we would need to have some combo of wins and their losses totaling 2 out of 4.  Therefore our MN is 2, right?  

5 - number to guarantee a home court series with 4th seed, currently Knicks @ 37-27.  We own all the tiebreakers. They need to beat us, not tie us.  A 12 loss lead.  If we lose the next 12, and they win their next 12, we're tied with 6 left.  We need a combo of wins and their losses totaling 3, so our MN is 3?

11 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court in the East.  Bucks are now #2 @ 42-23.  Our H2H vs Bucks is 1-1, 2-1 vs Cavs.  We have 2 more games against the Bucks and none vs Cavs.  A regular season tie vs Cleveland still keeps our #1 seed.  A regular season tie vs Milwaukee depends upon the results of our two remaining H2Hs.  If we lose the next 9 and Milwaukee wins the next 8 they tie us.  18-9=9.  Since we don't know what our final H2H will be I'm going to assume they just need to tie us.  The number should be 9, then?

15 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court all the way through the playoffs to #18.  OKC @ 45-19. Denver has crept up to 44-20 and own the H2H tiebreaker against us. That means if they catch us, tie us, they're #1.  If OKC wins in Boston on 4/3 they will own the H2H tiebreaker too.  18-5=13.  Because we still have a game vs OKC that tiebreaker is undecided.  So, just to be conservative, I'm assuming we lose that tiebreaker and we need to have the better regular season record.  So our 5 loss lead is really a 4 loss lead because we cannot let them tie us.  18-4=15.


Bob


.

Really beginning to worry a bit about OKC, they look like the dark horse here. We better get our act together and start winning games and building a better chemistry. No more vacations guys, not until June

RosalieTCeltics wrote:Really beginning to worry a bit about OKC, they look like the dark horse here. We better get our act together and start winning games and building a better chemistry. No more vacations guys, not until June

Rosalie,

I agree. 100%. OKC and Denver. Denver are the Champions, and you should never doubt those who have already been there and done that, and they beat us both times we played them this year, but OKC is on a big-time roll and are #1. That gives them home court advantage throughout the western playoffs, which might give them what they need vs all contenders, including Denver.

Some good news here: OKC and Denver can't BOTH be in the Finals. One of them will get knocked off before then.


Bob

.

Sunday's outcomes were perplexing, bobh, that's for sure. That's a very good reason not to gamble. Vegas is always there. We are not. Guess who comes up short most if not all the time, keeping the doors wide open?!

Most perplexing was the Heat losing to WAS. Couldn't believe that one. MIA won't go any lower than 8th. Would prefer for them to play MIL again. I don't think MIA cares except that if they can play us in the first round and be another giant killer, they will manipulate things to get there. I'm pretty sure the 7-8th seeds advancing will be dead for another 10-15 seasons. Someone needs to let the air out of MIA's tires soon.

db

Tonight's relevant games:

Boston @ Portland

Suns @ Cleveland.  Cleveland is on a SEGABABA.  They lost last night to Brooklyn.  This will be a character-defining game for them.

Raptors @ Denver.  Like found gold for the Nuggets.  I'm reverse jinxing them, like I did yesterday.


Bob


.

REMAINING SCHEDULES


DENVER (11 HOME, 7 AWAY)


@ Grizzlies
4/14


@ Spurs
4/12

vs Timberwolves
4/10

@ Jazz
4/9

vs Hawks
4/6

@ Clippers
4/4


vs Spurs
4/2

vs Cavaliers
3/31

vs Timberwolves
3/29

vs Suns
3/27

vs Grizzlies
3/25

@ Trail Blazers
3/23

vs Knicks
3/21

@ Timberwolves
3/19


@ Mavericks
3/17


vs Spurs
3/15

@ Heat
3/13


OKLAHOMA CITY (9 HOME, 9 AWAY)


vs Mavericks
4/14


vs Bucks
4/12


vs Spurs
4/10


vs Kings
4/9


@ Hornets
4/7


@ Pacers
4/5


@ Celtics
4/3


@ 76ers
4/2


@ Knicks
3/31


vs Suns
3/29


vs Rockets
3/27


@ Pelicans
3/26


@ Bucks
3/24


@ Raptors
3/22


vs Jazz
3/20


@ Grizzlies
3/16


vs Mavericks
3/14


vs Pacers
3/12



BOSTON (9 HOME, 10 AWAY)

vs Wizards
4/14


vs Hornets
4/12


vs Knicks
4/11


@ Bucks
4/9


vs Trail Blazers
4/7


vs Kings
4/5


vs Thunder
4/3


@ Hornets
4/1


@ Pelicans
3/30


@ Hawks
3/28


@ Hawks
3/25


@ Bulls
3/23


@ Pistons
3/22


vs Bucks
3/20


vs Pistons
3/18


@ Wizards
3/17


vs Suns
3/14


@ Jazz
3/12


@ Trail Blazers
3/11



Bob
MY NOTE:  Quick scan looks like OKC has an easy schedule from here.  A lot of games against weaker teams.  Three b2bs left for them, but not hard ones.  HOWEVER, they have a 5 game road trip that starts in NY, goes south to Philly, then north to Boston and then Indy and Charlotte.  Their game against us is a SEGABABA for them.  Denver has 11 home games, 5 in a row.  Easy and restful.  We play OKC as the 1st game of a short home stand after a 6 game road trip and that's tough.  As long as we don't look past Charlotte to OKC that shouldn't be hard since we have a day off between those games.

The game vs OKC is game 13 of our remaining 19.  Our Magic Number vs them is 15.  A solid winning run (10-3?), helped by a loss or two by OKC over those same 13 games (12-1?  11-2?) and our Magic Number is down to 3 or 4 by the time that game arrives.  If OKC does 10-3 then it's pretty much in the bag for us because we will still have maintained our 5 loss lead and there will be only 6 games left.


.

Several surprises Yesterday.

Bucks beat Clippers but I guess that was not a real surprise (NO PG13 and NO KL)  Middleton continues to convalesce.

Wizards beat the Heat

Sixers beat the Knicks (H) (without Maxey and Embid) The Knicks looked a bit worn down as they wait for OG and Randle to return.  They play again tomorrow.

Nets knocked off the Cavs.

Pacers beat the Magic.  

Let the turnstile keep rotating as The Knicks, Magic, Sixers, Pacers and Heat are going round and round.  With just a 2 game spread among 5 teams each game reshuffles the standings.

I read that Mathurin is out for the season.  That really hurts Indiana.  They traded Buddy and now with Mathurin gone their guard/wing depth looks sparse.

PLAYOFF SEEDING UPDATE, AFTER GAMES 3/11/24


As expected, we won in Portland.

Phoenix beat Cleveland in Cleveland.  

Denver rallied from 17 or 18 down to beat Toronto in Denver.



Team............................Season Records............Games Back (loss column).............Conference Records...........Conference Games Back (loss column)
Boston..........................50-14..........................------------- (-------------)..............33-7................................-------------
Oklahoma City...............45-19...........................5 (5)..........................................28-15...............................7 (eight)
Denver.........................45-20............................5 1/2 (6)....................................N/A..................................N/A
Minnesota.....................44-21...........................6 1/2 (7)....................................30-11...............................4 (4)
Milwaukee....................42-23............................8 1/2 (9)...................................29-13................................5 (6)
Cleveland.....................41-24............................9 1/2 (10).....,............................N/A..................................N/A

Denver and Cleveland are N/A for Conference Records because we own the 1st tiebreaker (H2H) vs Cleveland and lost the first tiebreaker vs Denver.  Cleveland needs to have a better regular season record than us to earn #1 while Denver only needs to tie us.  If Denver overtakes OKC for the #1 seed in the West that tiebreaker edge over us will affect the Magic Number.  If they don't then the Magic Number is vs OKC or Minny.


MAGIC NUMBERS (COMBINATION OF CELTIC WINS AND OPPONENT'S LOSSES TOTALING THE NUMBER).  18 GAMES LEFT FOR US:

Play-in Berth locked in.


Sean Grande just put out a tweet that provides the Magic Numbers.  I'm just going to use and update his as games are played, but I don't care about #2 or #3 or #5 seeds.  For me, after we're in the playoffs, it's all about home court.



CELTICS MAGIC NUMBERS
Overall 1-seed: 14 (OKC)
1-seed: 10 (Milwaukee)
2-seed: 8 (Cleveland)
3-seed: 4 (New York)
4-seed: 4 (Orlando)
Playoffs: 4 (Indiana)
Play-in: Clinched (February 27)


4 - number to guarantee a playoff berth with a 6th seed, currently held by Philly @ 36-28.  14 loss lead.  If we lose the next 14 games, and they win their next 14, we're tied with 4 left.  That means we would need to have some combo of wins and their losses totaling 2 out of 4.  Therefore our MN is 2, right?  

4 - number to guarantee a home court series with 4th seed, currently Knicks @ 37-27.  We own all the tiebreakers. They need to beat us, not tie us.  A 12 loss lead.  If we lose the next 12, and they win their next 12, we're tied with 6 left.  We need a combo of wins and their losses totaling 3, so our MN is 3?

10 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court in the East.  Bucks are now #2 @ 42-23.  Our H2H vs Bucks is 1-1, 2-1 vs Cavs.  We have 2 more games against the Bucks and none vs Cavs.  A regular season tie vs Cleveland still keeps our #1 seed.  A regular season tie vs Milwaukee depends upon the results of our two remaining H2Hs.  If we lose the next 9 and Milwaukee wins the next 8 they tie us.  18-9=9.  Since we don't know what our final H2H will be I'm going to assume they just need to tie us.  The number should be 9, then?

14 - number to guarantee #1 seed and home court all the way through the playoffs to #18.  OKC @ 45-19. Denver has crept up to 44-20 and own the H2H tiebreaker against us. That means if they catch us, tie us, they're #1.  If OKC wins in Boston on 4/3 they will own the H2H tiebreaker too.  18-5=13.  Because we still have a game vs OKC that tiebreaker is undecided.  So, just to be conservative, I'm assuming we lose that tiebreaker and we need to have the better regular season record.  So our 5 loss lead is really a 4 loss lead because we cannot let them tie us.  18-4=15.


Bob


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The good news with this bobh is the workload gets less and less as we win! 4 more upticks and we're down to the last two on your tracking list! I appreciate the work you're putting in on this thread. There is a lot to keep track of. Far more than me simply updating BOS and MIL W/L records and providing (c)rude commentary! Hopefully we'll see some separation in my scorecard tonight with MIL vs. SAC. We're not getting much with BOS(-6.5) and MIL (-2.5) as of this am per ESPN. I'm asking for a SAC win. That ain't asking for much.

db