Post Game - Celtics at 76ers - Wednesday, November 08 (L)

Celtics Wrap: Boston Falls Short In Comeback, Drops Second Straight Game

https://nesn.com/2023/11/celtics-wrap-boston-falls-short-in-comeback-drops-second-straight-game/

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers battled for first place in the Eastern Conference with the Sixers coming out on top 106-103 at the Wells Fargo Center on Wednesday night.

With the loss, the Celtics fell to 5-2 on the season, while the Sixers improved to 6-1 on the campaign.

ONE BIG TAKEAWAY

Coming off their first loss of the season, the Celtics struggled offensively shooting just 39.6% from the field, and didn’t have an answer defensively for Sixers duo Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

The reigning MVP led the way for the Sixers with 27 points and 10 rebounds for his second double-double of the season. Maxey added 25 points, nine rebounds and five assists in Philadelphia’s win.

For the Celtics, Kristaps Porzingis led all scorers going 10-for-18 from the field for 29 points, along with five rebounds and Jayson Tatum added 16 points in an off night. Unfortunately for Boston, Jaylen Brown couldn’t find a rhythm in the game going 4-for-13 from the field and finishing the night with 11 points.

The Celtics trailed by 15 points and almost completed the comeback but ultimately fell short.

STARS OF THE GAME

— After missing the last two games following the birth of his second child, Derrick White made an immediate impact in the Celtics with 19 points and five assists.

— Off the bench, Sam Hauser led the reserve unit with 13 points, along with four rebounds and one block.



— Porzingis led the Celtics scoring with 29 points going 10-for-18 from the field with five rebounds and three assists.

WAGER WATCH

FanDuel Sportsbook set the odds that Tatum would record a double-double in the game at +120. With his fifth double-double this season, Tatum cleared those odds with 16 points and 15 rebounds in the Celtics loss. A $100 wager on Tatum would have netted a $220 payout.

UP NEXT

The Celtics return home following the conclusion of their three-game road trip to host the Brooklyn Nets in the first game of the NBA In-Season Tournament on Friday night. Tip off from TD Garden is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.

From a different point of reference:

3 observations after Embiid, Maxey lead Sixers over Celtics for sixth straight victory

https://sports.yahoo.com/3-observations-embiid-maxey-lead-023939476.html

Noah Levick
Wed, Nov 8, 2023, 9:39 PM EST·6 min read

3 observations after Embiid, Maxey lead Sixers over Celtics for sixth straight victory originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

The Sixers have six consecutive wins and an early-season spot at the top of the Eastern Conference standings.

With a 106-103 victory Wednesday night over the Celtics at Wells Fargo Center, the Sixers improved to 6-1 this season. They've yet to lose at home with Nick Nurse as their head coach. Boston fell to 5-2.

The Celtics' comeback push in the final minutes culminated with a game-tying Kristaps Porzingis three-point attempt on their final possession. He came up short.

Joel Embiid had 27 points, 10 rebounds, four blocks and four assists.

Tyrese Maxey posted 25 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

Kristaps Porzingis scored 29 points. Jayson Tatum had 16 points, 15 rebounds and six assists.

Following a 5-0 homestand, the Sixers will play their first in-season tournament game on the road Friday night against the Pistons. They’ll see the Celtics again in Philadelphia next Wednesday.

Here are observations on the Sixers' first victory over Boston since their seven-game playoff series defeat last year:

Very different initial look against Embiid

Before any dust had settled, the Sixers held a 6-0 lead courtesy of an immediate Kelly Oubre Jr. dunk, a Maxey runner and two Tobias Harris free throws.

Once the game found its normal rhythm, an intriguing schematic storyline was Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla’s decision to put 6-foot-5 Jrue Holiday on Embiid and use 7-foot-3 Porzingis primarily as an off-ball roamer.

The Sixers sometimes looked confident in how to beat that approach, like when Embiid got a post-up early in the shot clock, spun baseline by Holiday and slammed in a big dunk to give the team a 10-4 lead. However, the Sixers’ spacing and Embiid’s decision-making against the Celtics’ double teams were often far from perfect. Boston rattled off an 11-0 run that featured four fast-break points created by Embiid turnovers.

Once the Celtics went to their bench, they had a conventional matchup of Al Horford on Embiid. The reigning MVP grew more patient, recognizing he could at times manipulate Boston’s help defenders and wait for isolation chances to develop. Simply shooting over smaller players is often a decent option for Embiid, too.

He was never likely to duplicate his 48-point performance from Monday night against the Wizards, but Embiid was again strong overall and regularly tremendous protecting the rim. The tape of the Celtics’ defense on him will be interesting for the Sixers to review.

Batum big off the bench

Just about everyone on the floor missed open jumpers early.

Boston began 1 for 8 from both the field and three-point range. Meanwhile, the Sixers came up empty on their first nine long-distance tries, including five by their starting backcourt of Maxey and De’Anthony Melton.

Offense was often a slog for the Sixers in the first quarter. They only forced two turnovers, generating few open-floor, defense-to-offense opportunities.

When Paul Reed blitzed Tatum early in the second quarter and narrowly missed out on a steal, the four-time All-Star hit Sam Hauser for a wide-open three. A Horford jumper soon extended the Celtics’ lead to 11 points.

The Sixers’ bench then provided some necessary positive momentum.

Furkan Korkmaz had a down night, but Nicolas Batum and Reed were second-unit bright spots in the second quarter. Reed was all over the offensive glass and scored a spinning, hard-driving layup on Holiday. Batum carried over the sweet shooting from his Sixers debut, knocking down the team’s first three-pointer. He also was solid defensively, blocking a Porzingis layup and playing sensibly on the ball against Tatum and Jaylen Brown. His 7-foot-plus wingspan is obviously an asset against Boston’s star forwards.

Robert Covington’s length is a plus in this matchup, too. He swatted the ball from Derrick White late in the second quarter, Melton picked it up, and Maxey profited seconds later with a layup ahead of the pack.

With 1:07 left in the second quarter, Batum jogged straight to the locker room after he attempted to strip the ball from Porzingis on a dunk by the Boston big man and suffered a gruesome-looking right index finger injury. He was evaluated at halftime and cleared to return, a team official said.

Batum ultimately played 26 minutes off the bench and had five points on 2-for-3 shooting, four rebounds, a block and a steal.

Oubre kept his starting spot and posted 14 points and eight rebounds.

Maxey keeps plugging away, comes through in fourth

Maxey’s persistence was encouraging.

He played through strange calls and missed jumpers, accepted the openings Boston presented him to his left hand, and pushed the pace. The 23-year-old’s defensive commitment was good, too. Maxey didn’t nail every defensive decision, but he consistently hustled and grappled against larger players.

Another poor Melton shooting night was a significant obstacle for the Sixers. Though Melton had gotten back on track Monday vs. Washington, he had a rough outing again Wednesday. Melton dropped to 1 for 8 from the field when he blew a layup in the third quarter. Maxey was similarly luckless as a shooter in the third, going 0 for 5 from the field.

Still, with both those players off the floor, the Sixers had a fantastic finish to the period, outplaying Boston during a chaotic stretch. After Porzingis missed an uncontested dunk, Covington canned a second-chance three. The quarter concluded with a Patrick Beverley floater followed by Embiid rejecting a futile Payton Pritchard layup attempt.

Maxey extended the Sixers' lead to 83-71 with a hoop on the Sixers' first fourth-quarter possession. He was excellent with Embiid on the bench, frequently responding to Celtics baskets and keeping Boston from mounting a serious run. Among his standout plays was a smooth snake of a pick-and-roll, a downhill burst with his right hand, and a beautifully lofted-in runner.

As soon as Embiid checked back in, Maxey drained a crucial after-timeout three. Harris (17 points, nine rebounds) also made a couple of jumpers and the Sixers the built their advantage to 102-87.

That didn't spell a stable, smooth finish. The Sixers made mistake after mistake — fouls that gave the Celtics free points and stopped the clock; shaky possessions that ended with turnovers — and Boston capitalized. Tatum's layup after a Melton giveaway trimmed the Sixers' lead to just 104-100 with 61 seconds left.

Finally, Embiid hit a fadeaway jumper. Brown answered with a tightly contested three on Maxey, though. He also blocked Maxey's shot on the ensuing possession, meaning Boston had an improbable chance to force overtime. The Sixers were relieved that an extra session wasn't needed.

Back to our perspective.

Boston Celtics flop on both ends vs. Philly, lose 106-103

https://sports.yahoo.com/boston-celtics-flop-both-ends-024314839.html

Justin Quinn
Wed, Nov 8, 2023, 9:43 PM EST·2 min read

The Boston Celtics played the Philadelphia 76ers like they were a team reeling from trading away James Harden for much of their road tilt against the Sixers on Wednesday night, but found a ball club that was all too happy to feast on the small mistakes the Celtics kept making despite evidence they were up against a dangerous foe.

[My comment: I know what he is trying to say here, but did he?  That's war on the King's English right there.]

It would cost Boston the game, with the Sixers capitalizing on Boston’s errors on a night their offense was also out of sorts for much of the contest. Solid games from Kristaps Porzingis (29 points, 6 rebounds), Derrick White (19 points, 5 assists), Jayson Tatum (16 points, 15 boards, 3 steals) and Jrue Holiday (12 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) on a night that saw Jaylen Brown (12 points) go 4-of-13 overall accompanied by little else in terms of helping his team.

Sam Hauser added 13 points off the bench, but with Al Horford and Payton Pritchard combining for just 1-of-10 from the floor overall, it’s honestly a minor miracle Boston didn’t lose by more.

The Celtics next play the Brooklyn Nets at home for the first game of their group play action for the NBA’s new in-season tournament on Friday, Nov. 10.

I definitely loved the move by Joe to put Jrue on Embiid. Jrue probably suggested it, knowing him. Embiid reminded me of our great Brooklyn playoff friend Kevin Durant, looking like a 3rd grader. Whoever came up with that deserves the game ball.

15-point leads are nothing in the NBA and we almost pulled it off. Again, we were in a position to win/tie it up and go to OT. Can't complain there. I can complain that we got that far down that late and had to pull what we did. Not going to blame KP either. The way that play went off at the end, it was not designed for him to shoot. He wound up with the ball and awkwardly took the last shot from 3ville for the tie. It was his shot but it didn't look right and caromed off the front of the rim.

KP did enough. JB is playing a lot like Tatum was last season observing these first few games...Hot and Cold. Last night was Cold. Let's hope he approaches consistency like Tatum is, even though Tatum's game was a little off as well. We knew this was coming, that is the 3-ball would quickly desert us. And it has and will continue throughout the season. But this year we have a brutal inside attack. Last year, we would have lost this game by 40 because we would just keep chucking threes until the final buzzer went off and wonder what went wrong.

Losing builds character. We need some character. We'll be fine. But PHI is for real. Make no mistake.

Doogie looks good. I don't understand why they kept letting Pritch shoot when he couldn't throw it in the ocean in the middle of Doogie going off. Teams are now going to start leaving P-Squared open until he starts hitting. Al was a -23?!! WTH, Bo?!! Something ain't right there with Al I'm afraid. Usually rises to the occasion and challenge way better than that. Should have stuck with what we started with and keep Jrue on Embiid. Jrue just the opposite with +13 and the highest +/- for us. Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

Oh well. Tourney time. BKN up first. I'd be surprised if we don't mop the floor with BKN. I won't give it a +30, but be prepared.

And this wasn't a total loss. The Lakers, and now I'm going to have to officially change their name to the Fakers, were blown to smithereens by our old coach in now in HOU. Gotta love that. I'd be surprised today on First Take if Steven A. won't have a huge calendar on set or ticker that will mark off each of the 15 games or so missed this season by AD so he will win his bet with Shannon Sharpe. There's one.

On to Friday.

db

Horford and Pritchard a combined 1-10.  This would have been a blow out except for Sam doing something for the bench.  Al and Pritch are a combined 29-74 (29.2%) and 8-42 (19%) from 3 for the season.  Pritchard, in particular, has a been a major disappointment so far.  He wanted minutes, threw a hissy fit because he wasn't getting them and demanded a trade.  He's averaging > 18mpg and can't throw the ball in the ocean from the edge of the pier.  Preseason is fool's gold.  Brad has to be wondering.

Jaylen Brown, another fresh contract that's underperforming.  With the exception of his 3pt shooting every metric is down from last year.


I think Jaylen will come around, I don't know what his problems are but he's too good and proud to stay here, but I am becoming increasingly concerned about our bench and how Joe is using it.  Brad gave him 4 new rotation players (Banton, Stevens, Svi and Oshae) and he's not using any of them, he's playing the same bench players that got carried over from last year except that the cream of that bench is gone.  Brogdon was NBA 6th Man, Grant did a lot of things well, RWill was a game changer on defense.  Joe doesn't have them anymore so he's just playing the players from last year that were the bottom third of the bench.  He's just moved them up to 6-10. What is Charles Lee and Sam telling him?



Bob


.

Hi,
Unfortunately, it's a loss. The second quarter did us in. 76's were out-hustling and out-everything Celtics.
On one hand it was a great move to put JH on Embiid. On the other hand, Joe couldn't figure out how to contain Maxey.
I'm sure JB will bounce and string the next few games with 20+ points.
I'm not so sure about PP, though.

AK

bobheckler wrote:Horford and Pritchard a combined 1-10.  This would have been a blow out except for Sam doing something for the bench.  Al and Pritch are a combined 29-74 (29.2%) and 8-42 (19%) from 3 for the season.  Pritchard, in particular, has a been a major disappointment so far.  He wanted minutes, threw a hissy fit because he wasn't getting them and demanded a trade.  He's averaging > 18mpg and can't throw the ball in the ocean from the edge of the pier.  Preseason is fool's gold.  Brad has to be wondering.

Jaylen Brown, another fresh contract that's underperforming.  With the exception of his 3pt shooting every metric is down from last year.


I think Jaylen will come around, I don't know what his problems are but he's too good and proud to stay here, but I am becoming increasingly concerned about our bench and how Joe is using it.  Brad gave him 4 new rotation players (Banton, Stevens, Svi and Oshae) and he's not using any of them, he's playing the same bench players that got carried over from last year except that the cream of that bench is gone.  Brogdon was NBA 6th Man, Grant did a lot of things well, RWill was a game changer on defense.  Joe doesn't have them anymore so he's just playing the players from last year that were the bottom third of the bench.  He's just moved them up to 6-10.  What is Charles Lee and Sam telling him?



Bob


.

I agree and don’t know why Brissett and Stevens aren’t getting more run, you need diversified players that can play hard and these guys can defend. They should be figuring out roles to play with the starters while certain ones rest. Them not playing at all or for 4 minutes baffles me.

This loss is a little more disturbing than the one to to the Twolves.

We totally got out hustled in the second quarter. Our defensive rebounding in particular was horrible in that quarter. That quarter turned the game around.

Other than the Zinger, no one played well.

I really thought PP would turn things around, but now I'm not so sure. He just can't buy a basket, and we really need his points off the bench. He has to start making an impact or something we have to change. I can see giving him another 3 games or so to turn it around.

Jaylen was horrible till the last couple minutes. I can live with an off shooting night, but I can't live with the turnovers. He looked like a rookie again handing the ball on one sequence. At this point he has to know when to push things and when to step back and let the game flow. He's not a rookie anymore, these inane turnovers are unacceptable.

JT didn't have his A game, but give him credit he had 15 rebounds and didn't force anything.

I'm a little concerned about Al's three point shooting, but he will probably start making a better percentage.

All in all, it's still early and we have a tremendous team. There will be nights like this.

Celtics17 wrote:This loss is a little more disturbing than the one to to the Twolves.

We totally got out hustled in the second quarter. Our defensive rebounding in particular was horrible in that quarter. That quarter turned the game around.

Other than the Zinger, no one played well.

I really thought PP would turn things around, but now I'm not so sure. He just can't buy a basket, and we really need his points off the bench. He has to start making an impact or something we have to change. I can see giving him another 3 games or so to turn it around.

Jaylen was horrible till the last couple minutes. I can live with an off shooting night, but I can't live with the turnovers. He looked like a rookie again handing the ball on one sequence. At this point he has to know when to push things and when to step back and let the game flow. He's not a rookie anymore, these inane turnovers are unacceptable.

JT didn't have his A game, but give him credit he had 15 rebounds and didn't force anything.

I'm a little concerned about Al's three point shooting, but he will probably start making a better percentage.

All in all, it's still early and we have a tremendous team. There will be nights like this.

Scal kept commenting on how the Sixers were just out hustling us all night. They wanted it more. Brown, fresh off his supermax contract absolutely sucked. He still hasn't learned not to try to dribble out of double teams. He threw the ball away too much and couldn't find the basket all night long until the very end. I think he needs to learn that he is not a great ball handler.

Chris Forsberg @ChrisForsberg_
about 4 hours ago
Jrue Holiday defended Joel Embiid on nearly ⅓ of his offensive possessions on Wednesday. NBA’s tracking data: 22.3 possessions, 2 PTS, 1-3 FG, 3 TO (Al Horford logged similar time and gave up 15 PTS on 6-11 FG) Holiday’s career stats vs Embiid: 17 PTS, 7-22 FG, 9 TO



Bob


.

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/11/joe-mazzulla-takes-subtle-shot-at-officiating-after-celtics-loss-to-76ers.html



Joe Mazzulla takes subtle shot at officiating after Celtics loss to 76ers



Published: Nov. 09, 2023, 11:24 a.m.


By Brian Robb | brobb@masslive.com



PHILADELPHIA — The Celtics suffered their second straight loss against the 76ers on Wednesday night thanks in large part to a frustrating night on the offensive end despite the return of Derrick White to the lineup. Boston shot just 39 percent from the field for the second straight game and struggled and fell victim to 19 second chance points by the Sixers that helped them create separation in the second half.


In the aftermath of the loss, Joe Mazzulla wasn’t shy about taking a subtle shot at officiating in what he viewed as some subtle advantages the Sixers gained due to a lack of rule enforcement. Philadelphia routinely packed the paint with Joel Embiid and other Sixers help defenders for much of the evening to the point where Mazzulla suggested he needed to teach his players to do the same.

“The one thing we have to teach our bigs is to stay in the paint on defense and not move and we just got to be able to do that and protect the rim,” Mazzulla said with a hint of sarcasm. “I thought Embiid did a good job of standing in the paint, protecting the rim and forcing us to kick it out, and I just don’t think we made them.”


When pressed about Celtics bigs playing more defense in the paint, it became clear that Mazzulla was referring to the Sixers taking advantage of the loose enforcement of the defensive 3-second rule with that remark.

“Well, there is a rule called (Defensive 3 seconds), but I don’t know if it’s a rule anymore,” Mazzulla said. “But I have to look it up.”

The Celtics will get a chance for some revenge next week in Philadelphia as they face off against the 76ers again on Wednesday night.



Bob


.

I guess that this is as good a time as any to ask a couple questions:

1. Turnovers per game.

I have read that when comparing Jaylen Brown's and Jayson Tatum's turnovers per game numbers to other high-usage players, neither of them stand out as being out the ordinary.  In other words, higher turnovers come with being a high-usage player.  Of course there will be high TO games and low TO games, but their average TO per game numbers line up, more or less, with their peers.

Since I am not a "complex stat" guy, I cannot pretend to argue one way or the other about the Jays TO rate.  So I am asking the board:

Are we focusing on the highs, ignoring the lows, while also ignoring their averages compared to their peers?

2. Assists to Turnover Ratio.

This is a somewhat related topic, so while I am asking . . .

We all understand what an assist is.  It has a one-to-one correlation between a pass to a player and a basket made.  Okay, what is a Turnover (TO)?

Unforced TOs:

Traveling
Double dribble
Carrying the ball
Committing an offensive foul
Drawing a technical foul
Committing a loose ball foul (if your team originally had possession)
A shot clock violation
Offensive goaltending
Stepping out of bounds
Passing the ball out of bounds
An intercepted pass
A steal off the dribble or from the hands of the player
Losing control of the ball
10-second violation (bring the ball up the court) [My comment: now 8?]
5-second violation (while trying to inbound the ball)

I was lazy and found the list here:

https://dunkorthree.com/turnover-basketball/

I have read that because so many other events can contribute to the TO portion of the equation, that using Assists (purely a pass related event) in an equation with TOs (often a non-pass related event) to compare one player's point guard ability with another's renders the results to be mostly meaningless.  I understand that there is more to being a point guard than just passing, but how many other types of events that cause TOs can be attributed to being a poor floor general?

Math is math.  We use an equation to compare two things (MPH, PPG, etc.), and when one component in the equation introduces a number of unrelated things, is the equation valid?

So I ask the board, are we giving the Assist/TO statistic more importance than it deserves?  Or worse, are we using it when it really has no real value whatsoever?

Does using either of these two particular statistics (with or without context) to criticize a player's game have any value or are one or both of them examples of confirmation bias?

gyso wrote:
I have read that because so many other events can contribute to the TO portion of the equation, that using Assists (purely a pass related event) in an equation with TOs (often a non-pass related event) to compare one player's point guard ability with another's renders the results to be mostly meaningless.  I understand that there is more to being a point guard than just passing, but how many other types of events that cause TOs can be attributed to being a poor floor general?

Math is math.  We use an equation to compare two things (MPH, PPG, etc.), and when one component in the equation introduces a number of unrelated things, is the equation valid?

So I ask the board, are we giving the Assist/TO statistic more importance than it deserves?  Or worse, are we using it when it really has no real value whatsoever?

Does using either of these two particular statistics (with or without context) to criticize a player's game have any value or are one or both of them examples of confirmation bias?

You know I am far from the biggest stats guy here. At least until I think I can find something that supports my argument

That being said I think Assist/TO is flawed because so many variables can be included in what leads to a turnover in the first place.

For my own purposes, I throw it on the scrap heap just above +/-, the statistic I  find most flawed (and a debate for another day).

dbrown4 wrote:
Losing builds character.  We need some character.  We'll be fine.  But PHI is for real.  Make no mistake.  
db

Exactly right on all points IMO.

The game should serve as a reminder to fans, and especially players, that we are far from the only alpha dog in the hunt. Getting to the conference final or farther is not going to be a layup.

My only request from last night's game, speaking of dogs, is that someone puts one of those training collars that zaps you on Brown. Every time he tries to dribble, an assistant coach could then hit the button and shock him into passing to someone who actually has a handle.

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/11/last-2-minute-report-shows-key-missed-call-in-celtics-loss-to-76ers.html



Last 2 Minute Report shows key missed call in Celtics loss to 76ers



Published: Nov. 09, 2023, 5:30 p.m.


By Brian Robb | brobb@masslive.com



The NBA acknowledged a key missed call in the closing seconds of the Celtics’ loss to the 76ers on Wednesday night within the Last 2 Minute Report.

Boston had a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds when Kristaps Porzingis attempted a 3-point shot from the top of the key with just under 10 seconds remaining. The big man badly misfired on the shot and Joel Embiid came up with the rebound in a crowd.


However, Embiid appeared to have one foot on the baseline when he took control of the rebound but it was uncalled by officials in real time. Philadelphia ran out the clock and won the game 106-103.

The NBA Last 2 Minute report acknowledged that Embiid was out of bounds and the Celtics should have been given one final possession with four seconds remaining in regulation.

Porzingis talked about his miss after the game, which shouldn’t have been Boston’s final attempt of the game.

“Obviously it was a really good look, pump-faked him,” Porzingis said. “But as I went into the shot I went into it as if it was a mid-range shot. I jumped a little higher and I usually don’t do that for threes. I just shot it bad and as soon as it left my hand I thought it was short. But it was a good look, clean look. It was a good play by Jo but can’t ask for anything else, a good look like that at the end to tie the game, that’s all we can ask for.”


Bob


.

Yeah, gyso, that shouldn't be a problem for us but it was on full display last night given we have multiple 2/3-way players. Maxey is a handful.

The Pritch No-Shows have to be raising eyebrows. Doogie comes out there now, gets hot and then we don't feed him the ball anymore. His touches are very limited depending upon who's out there. He should be scoring 20+ points/game if they'd just keep getting him the ball while he's hot. If he could develop getting hot from 3, people start picking him up and he blows past them for layup and an And 1, he'd be killin' it. right now he's like Steph Curry. He has to catch it on the run, turn and shoot all in about 3/4's of a second. He's got a sweet shot.

db

gyso wrote:I guess that this is as good a time as any to ask a couple questions:

1. Turnovers per game.

I have read that when comparing Jaylen Brown's and Jayson Tatum's turnovers per game numbers to other high-usage players, neither of them stand out as being out the ordinary.  In other words, higher turnovers come with being a high-usage player.  Of course there will be high TO games and low TO games, but their average TO per game numbers line up, more or less, with their peers.

Since I am not a "complex stat" guy, I cannot pretend to argue one way or the other about the Jays TO rate.  So I am asking the board:

Are we focusing on the highs, ignoring the lows, while also ignoring their averages compared to their peers?

2. Assists to Turnover Ratio.

This is a somewhat related topic, so while I am asking . . .

We all understand what an assist is.  It has a one-to-one correlation between a pass to a player and a basket made.  Okay, what is a Turnover (TO)?

Unforced TOs:

Traveling
Double dribble
Carrying the ball
Committing an offensive foul
Drawing a technical foul
Committing a loose ball foul (if your team originally had possession)
A shot clock violation
Offensive goaltending
Stepping out of bounds
Passing the ball out of bounds
An intercepted pass
A steal off the dribble or from the hands of the player
Losing control of the ball
10-second violation (bring the ball up the court) [My comment: now 8?]
5-second violation (while trying to inbound the ball)

I was lazy and found the list here:

https://dunkorthree.com/turnover-basketball/

I have read that because so many other events can contribute to the TO portion of the equation, that using Assists (purely a pass related event) in an equation with TOs (often a non-pass related event) to compare one player's point guard ability with another's renders the results to be mostly meaningless.  I understand that there is more to being a point guard than just passing, but how many other types of events that cause TOs can be attributed to being a poor floor general?

Math is math.  We use an equation to compare two things (MPH, PPG, etc.), and when one component in the equation introduces a number of unrelated things, is the equation valid?

So I ask the board, are we giving the Assist/TO statistic more importance than it deserves?  Or worse, are we using it when it really has no real value whatsoever?

Does using either of these two particular statistics (with or without context) to criticize a player's game have any value or are one or both of them examples of confirmation bias?

Gyso

I think the assist to turnover ratio is a good tool for measuring point guard effectiveness and other players who dominate the ball. It may not be as meaningful for players that do not handle the ball a great deal.

I found it amazing that Mike Conley has 26 to 1 assist to TO ratio this year. I think the ratio is this case is indicative of a player handing and distributing the ball at an incredibly high level. Obviously that ratio will level off.

As far as the Celtics go I think it is a stat to consider for Holiday, JT, JB, D White and PP. It should be taken into account along with their other stats and intangibles, but should not be considered the primary stat to evaluate their overall performance.

Although the euphoria about how great this team is has sort of worn off like a poor paint job!, i still like this team overall.  

Once again you live by the 3 and you died by the 3.  

a 3 point loss or a 5 point loss are slim margins.

Lets face the reality of the situation.   Our  great 5 cannot and will not be great every game.

In such circumstances, you would hope that your rotation guys earn their money.

This game revealed that KP cannot play physical in the post when going up against a big strong physical team.

This game may indicate that the current rotation mix is inadequate to impact the game.  I'm waiting for the 10 game sample size.

The Sixer look better than last season.   Oubre - Harden = a Plus

Tonight we get a playin regular season game vs the Nets.    No Al Horford so Kornet will be our primary big off the bench if you can actually wrap your head around the notion that Kornet is in fact a big.  Actually he is a big but to really capture who he is you may want to add a more descriptive adjective.

How about 'Soft Big'...That works for me.

Look for the Celtics to come out with a little fire in their belly.  Otherwise, a 3 loss streak is just a few hours away.

I would like to see a healthy dose of Lamar Stevens.

Same here, dboss. I'd like to see a strong dose of Doogie and Pritch going off. I'm not sure Al will be missed given he hasn't added much so far. The fire in the belly for sure for the rest of the team. When Vegas gives you (-11.5), they have put that assumption into the mix and expect it to show no questions asked.

db

dbrown4 wrote:Same here, dboss.  I'd like to see a strong dose of Doogie and Pritch going off.  I'm not sure Al will be missed given he hasn't added much so far.  The fire in the belly for sure for the rest of the team.  When Vegas gives you (-11.5), they have put that assumption into the mix and expect it to show no questions asked.  

db

This team really does not have big man depth so AH will be missed unless Kornet Plays above his station.  ???

Sam has found his range but PP has not.  

The 11.5 point spread reflects the fact that Simmons, Cam Thomas (who killed us) and Claxton will not be playing.

The Celtics are at home and coming off B2B losses and their stars took the night off.  So the spread seems doable.

Go Celtics!

bobheckler wrote:Horford and Pritchard a combined 1-10.  This would have been a blow out except for Sam doing something for the bench.  Al and Pritch are a combined 29-74 (29.2%) and 8-42 (19%) from 3 for the season.  Pritchard, in particular, has a been a major disappointment so far.  He wanted minutes, threw a hissy fit because he wasn't getting them and demanded a trade.  He's averaging > 18mpg and can't throw the ball in the ocean from the edge of the pier.  Preseason is fool's gold.  Brad has to be wondering.

Jaylen Brown, another fresh contract that's underperforming.  With the exception of his 3pt shooting every metric is down from last year.


I think Jaylen will come around, I don't know what his problems are but he's too good and proud to stay here, but I am becoming increasingly concerned about our bench and how Joe is using it.  Brad gave him 4 new rotation players (Banton, Stevens, Svi and Oshae) and he's not using any of them, he's playing the same bench players that got carried over from last year except that the cream of that bench is gone.  Brogdon was NBA 6th Man, Grant did a lot of things well, RWill was a game changer on defense.  Joe doesn't have them anymore so he's just playing the players from last year that were the bottom third of the bench.  He's just moved them up to 6-10.  What is Charles Lee and Sam telling him?



Bob


.

I have got a lot of flak for it here, but I was never a big Marcus Smart fan. Yes, he was our guy but I did not mind at all when he was traded. I can already see a better flow in the game with Jrue and White back court. Understand that it should be obvious as Jrue is a higher rated player than Smart.

In the same manner, I am not a Jaylen Brown fan. Yes, he is our guy, an upstanding citizen and somebody who is more than a basketball player. At the same time, I would not mind fine the the Celts could find an equivalent talent and a better fit. JB's game is just too programmed (mechanical) and his situation read leaves a lot to be desired. Also, he has generally vanished under pressure. But I can't see who I will trade him for.

As for the game, it was like the Celts were feeling it out, a little unsure of themselves. Jrue lost two layups being casual. There was an offensive rebound that was surrendered as we were just standing around.

It was good to see Hauser producing.

At this point, against Philly (and possibly Bucks), we should stop counting on Al's threes. He does not seem to transition well out of the needed defensive focus and into the shooting.

Pritchard needs to figure out his rhythms to get his shot out with more confidence. Defenses have figured out how to defend him to play in space as well as make him think about his shot.

Lots of time left in the season for the Celts to keep ironing out the wrinkles.

IMHO:
I agree with dboss that Porzingas does not have the bulk to bang. I'd go further to say that to use him that way is foolish, given his injury history. Still scratching my head over why Grant Williams was shipped out. He wasn't ideal, but he was serviceable. Is there anyone on the bench who rises to that level? Queta..?

Al is older than god and to preserve some "play-off Al," he needs to play less. I'm all for that, but who plays more? Luke shows flashes of competence, but if he's really the backup center, he needs to show us why in extended minutes, some with starters. That would also preserve Zingas, which should be a mantra this year.

Just out of curiosity, how much does Brown make?

Pritchard wanted more playing time, but it seems his size costs the team at both ends.

Still love this year's edition, but with MS and GW gone, we need an enforcer, pronto.

Well, that's the view from my screen. Beat the Nets! hawk

hawksnestbeach wrote:IMHO:
I agree with dboss that Porzingas does not have the bulk to bang. I'd go further to say that to use him that way is foolish, given his injury history. Still scratching my head over why Grant Williams was shipped out. He wasn't ideal, but he was serviceable. Is there anyone on the bench who rises to that level? Queta..?

Al is older than god and to preserve some "play-off Al," he needs to play less. I'm all for that, but who plays more? Luke shows flashes of competence, but if he's really the backup center, he needs to show us why in extended minutes, some with starters. That would also preserve Zingas, which should be a mantra this year.

Just out of curiosity, how much does Brown make?

Pritchard wanted more playing time, but it seems his size costs the team at both ends.

Still love this year's edition, but with MS and GW gone, we need an enforcer, pronto.

Well, that's the view from my screen. Beat the Nets! hawk




   

Hawk

Joe is still fiddling and diddling with the rotation.  That should be expected.  Sam and PP earned their opportunity for the time being.  Sam seems to have found his range while the feisty but unpredictable PP has not.  He has the speed and quickness to stay with his man but his lack of size remains a big negative on defense.  Take away his 3 point shooting and there may not be enough left to justify his rotation minutes.

I think the guy that could really help is Lamar Stevens.  He has a physical profile quite similar to Grant Williams but he is no 3 point shooter.  However, I could see him scratch out a role in the dunker spot because he is a very strong finisher at the rim and I believe his defense could help the team defend 4/5.

Zinger has the size but not the mass to defend against big physical centers.  The same issues apply to Kornet.  Maybe the 2-way guy Qerta could help.  He seems like a guy that likes to bang down low so why not use his 6 fouls to muck things up for our opponents.  

The Celtics will not bruise there way to winning ball games without a physical center and/or power forward.  I am pretty sure that we do not want JT to be banging down low.  He remains an above average rebounder  and had a ton of them in an otherwise unremarkable performance.  This team will go as far as Jayson Tatum takes them.  He's the guy.