Looking ahead

Not to jump the gun but I just had to take a look at the Celtics roster. Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers have a lot of decisions to make. I think there are 3 issues at hand. First they need to make a decision about West, baby and Jeff Green. They also need to get their two rookies under contract and thirdly they need to add some veteran free agents to round out the roster. The final outcome must reflect the ability of the Celtics to be a major player next year in the free agent market.

My take on their own free agents is filled with a degree of uncertainty. I like all three of these players and I hope that they can be retained but I have some doubts about them as well.

D West is one of my favorite players and his ability to be a combo guard enhances his value to the team. He is coming off a ‘let’s see what you do’ contract of $939,480. I think Boston should offer him a salary in the $2.5 million range and I think it should be a 2 year deal. The big question that I have about West is how many games will he play. Of 574 regular season games over the past 7 year West has played in 388 games or 67.6%. West is injury prone because of his reckless style of play. Nevertheless he is a key component to this team and should be retained at the right price. A lower end salary seems appropriate.

Big Baby hurt his free agency status because of his play at the end of the season and during the playoff run. But he is a very important piece to retain because like West he can play two positions. Yes he has maturity issues from time to time but I think that the Celtics have made a good investment in his development and it would be a shame to see him get away. I think his salary last year was in the $3 million to $3.5 million range. He is looking for a big payday but he will not get it this year unless some other team throws more money at him. I think a salary in the $4.5 million range would be just about right. Depending on the Larry Bird exception, Boston may not be able to outbid or match other offers. But any guy that is willing to take that many charges is worth good money.

Jeff Green has yet to live up to his potential. It is not totally his fault because Jeff is a very athletic player who when given the opportunity displayed amazing speed getting up and down the court. His skills are buried on a team that has yet to make a full blown transition to playing up tempo basketball. But the investment in him is mandatory since he was acquired at the expense of Perkins. The Celtics will have to make a qualifying offer in the $5.9 million range. I think a long term deal in the $7 to $8 million range may be needed. If structured properly it may not hurt the team next year.

Overall I think Boston may be able to retain all three for around $15 million per year. Signing the two rookies for a combined $1.6 million seems reasonable.
Free agents signings is unknown because the new CBA will determine what can be offered.

If Boston is able to keep their total salary down, next year they could make a serious bid to go after Dwight Howard. That would require Boston to not resign KG or Ray Allen until after Howard was secured.

Dwight wants to be in a major market. La will be well over the cap as will Chicago. And NY is likely to go after Chris Paul. Both Orlando and Miami will be tapped out so there is no room for them to add high end players. That really leaves Boston as the only other high end team to consider.

I think there are only 2 things that could kill my Howard wish list. One he does not want to play for the Celtics or two, Orlando decides to move him during the season in fear of losing him. Likely destination is LA with a Howard for Bynum swap. However the Magic may not want to see Howard end up in LA because it would stir up memories of losing Shaq to LA.

If I was Howard I would want to play in Boston because there are enough young players on the team to keep them in contention for a while. LA on the other hand appears to be on a downward slide along with superstar Kobe Bryant and with the recent coaching change there is no way to predict how things would work out there.

Would I be willing to move KG during the season in order to acquire Howard? YEP.

I am moving into preseason mode!

dboss