Post Season Moves and Observations

Decided to respond to Bob post under the Post Game thread.

That game has already begun to fade.

Anyways I pretty much agree with everything you said but I think Moore has better handle than you give him credit for. I think he is somewhere in between Rajon and Avery.

Dboss

dboss,

I hope you're right about Moore. He's obviously tentative. Bradley was tentative, I used to go crazy with the way he'd run the ball up to the top of the key and then pull up and pass laterally, but now that his confidence has grown he's attacking full court now and forcing the defense to respond. I have not seen Moore do that. I have never seen Moore bring the ball up full court on the run. Moore was a SG at Pitt. A shooter. Now, he's being told he has to run a pretty complex offense. That's tough for a rookie, especially without a training camp. In fact, Doc (nor any of the rest of the coaching staff or management) could even call Moore during the lockout to tell him "practice your dribbling". And of course it is very hard to practice passing out of a full court press without structured practices.

He knows how important dribbling is now though, doesn't he?

With Pierce heading into his final year(s), we need another closer. Moore could be him. He has that kind of shooting ability, he just needs the ball handling skills to be able to get to where he wants to shoot.

bob

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I don't see more as a closer but he looks to be a talented guard that should get significantly more minutes next year.

Speaking of closet, do you think we can luck or in. the draft and find a young stud?

Very deep draft at the 2.
Dboss

Bob, My one year old grandson is a very good dribbler, I've become a much better and more frequent dribbler over the years, so I'm not too worried about Moore's dribbling.

worcester wrote:Bob, My one year old grandson is a very good dribbler, I've become a much better and more frequent dribbler over the years, so I'm not too worried about Moore's dribbling.

worcester,

You shouldn't lead with your chin like that.

bob


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dboss wrote:I don't see more as a closer but he looks to be a talented guard that should get significantly more minutes next year.

Speaking of closet, do you think we can luck or in. the draft and find a young stud?

Very deep draft at the 2.
Dboss

dboss,

Yes, very deep at 2. The question I'd ask is "how important is shooting?". If we're looking for a replacement for Ray Allen, he better be a shooter.

Here's Hoopsworld's ranking of the top SG in this draft.

http://www.hoopsworld.com/2012-nba-draft-ranking-the-shooting-guards

Draftexpress predicts Terrence Ross, the last of the top tier, will be picked at 18. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/ . We pick at 21 and 22.

Mynbadraft.com has Doron Lamb, of Kentucky, being drafted after we pick as does draftexpress. That means he'd be available to us, if we want him. He's a shooter too.

http://nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

I have opined that we need another playmaker, someone who can run an offense like a point guard, when Rondo sits down.

Here's an interesting article about point guards that, according to the author, are "already better than Jeremy Lin". Since when did Lin become a point guard paradigm? Draftexpress shows us taking Scott Machado with our 21st pick in the 2nd round.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1216679-nba-draft-2012-5-point-guard-prospects-already-better-than-jeremy-lin


bob

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Jeremy Lin became a point guard paradigm when he played a few good games in the media capital of the USA - NYC. That's about all it takes.

This is whom I'd like Danny to draft in two years:
Jabari Parker. It would be akin to Red drafting Larry Bird a year before he left college to join the NBA. Maybe with his Mormon roots Danny could swing some sort of deal for Jabari. Also, having a Mormon President from MA might help too.

http://blog.chron.com/mormonvoice/2012/06/mormon-basketball-star-jabari-parker-ranked-as-no-1-prospect-for-nba/

What are the chances the Boston moves up to snag Austin maybe give up one of their first rounders and Moore or jjj?

Dboss

I really am convinced that JJ is a goner, Doc kind of just let him sit on the bench this year. It seems to me there is a lack of confidence in his ability. I wonder if he will be packaged with one or two round picks for a move up. You have to have somebody want him to make it possible.

Bob, what do you think? I really think they will hold on to Moore. Does Williams have any shot at making this team?

Rosalie

Hey Rosie

I actually like Williams as a defender and rebounder...plus he can be had for short money.

Dboss

Dboss,

I posted this in the Post Game Thread but think it might be more appropriate here. I tend to look at this sort of thing by first determining what team system I think will work best and, only then, conjecturing about which available players (or player types) will best lend themselves to that system.

The only appropriate starting point is to recognize how fortunate we were, this year, to be fans of one of the grittiest teams in Celtics history. In times of adversity, they were superb grinders. I’m convinced that their togetherness and determination were intangibles that took them much farther than their physical condition warranted. For me, the privilege of liking this team so much actually helps to soften the blow of their eventual departure from the playoffs. And, when the final buzzer sounded on their season, I didn’t waste one second of remorse. The way I handle such things is to begin instantly to look forward. So let’s look forward.

Defensive Identity

Ever since Tom Thibodeau came on the scene, I believe the identity of the Celtics has been predicated on their defensive excellence. Even several players not noted for their defensive skills have been able to function satisfactorily in the Celtics’ team defensive scheme featuring rotations, “showing” and help. I was afraid, when Thibs left, that the defensive intensity might depart with him. Not so. Doc and his staff have been able to perpetuate the team’s ability to get stops when they needed them (with some exceptions, such as in the most recent game when they just plain ran out of gas).

I expect the team’s signature to remain its defense, almost regardless of who plays for them because the system—to say nothing of the coaches who teach it—will not permit nothing less. Even if their defense occasionally flames out, it seems that the coaches have the ability to reignite it in short order. Of course, it will always be important to avoid players who are defensive liabilities. But my first priority, in looking to the future, will involve the offense.

The Offense: A Tale of Two Directions

During the Rome training camp prior to the 2007-08 championship run, Doc put the offense squarely in the hands of the Three Amigos. We were all fortunate that they left their individual egos at the door and arrived at a collaboration that led to a championship. We were equally fortunate that Rondo’s role, while certainly important, was complementary in nature. In other words, he proved more than adequate in accommodating the tone set by the Amigos, but he didn’t try to impose his will to an inordinate degree.

Since that season, Rondo’s imprint on the team has expanded hugely to the point where the prevailing wisdom is that this is now his team. While that may be philosophically true, I’m not at all sure it plays out that way on the floor. The Amigos have always favored a deliberate, half court offensive approach, while switching to an up-tempo style opportunistically; and this tendency has been reinforced with the passage of time. Rondo has possessed sufficient playmaking skills to accommodate the Amigos’ halfcourt orientation; in fact, he has expanded greatly on that ability as the years have passed.

But we all know that Rondo has a latent passion and an amazing facility for up-tempo basketball. In the best of all worlds, his priority would be to run first and default to half court basketball when necessary. It just so happens that this is the style favored by the two teams that remain standing in the playoffs as well as another team (the Bulls) that would have contended fiercely if their main catalyst had not gone down. It also tends to be the style of younger teams who have the legs and who are not yet mature enough to have very efficient halfcourt offenses. Considering these facts and the tendency for athleticism in general to be increasingly prominent in pro basketball, I believe the Celtics offensive system needs to be predicated on energy first and shooting efficiency second.

I freely admit that I’m heavily influenced by having cut my basketball fan teeth on a diet of dominating defense, withering fast breaks that debilitated opponents, with efficient halfcourt basketball as a default. In my estimation, there has been too much predictable halfcourt play while the Celtics are not taking maximum advantage of their primary catalyst because Rondo’s transition skills are under-utilized. This leads me to my model for the near-future.

First Unit—Early Achievers

I foresee a starting unit built to set a blistering pace out of the box and creating early cushions that will suck the energy out of opponent by making them play catchup. Such a starting unit would need a playmaking catalyst (Rondo), athletic teammates, and strong defensive rebounding to ignite the break.

I believe that, with reduced minutes, KG could be the center on such a team for at least another year. In the running game, he could beat other centers down the floor, or he could serve as an excellent trailer. But he would need a rebounding and defensive stud beside him at PF. This person would be my primary draft goal. And I’m not talking about someone who has good skills but is undersized. Bass fits that description perfectly, and I want him on my bench (see below). PF will have to be a strong rebounding position in my model, because it’s essential to the fast break. So I’d be looking for a PF who’s at least 6’ 10” without sneakers, hopefully has a good wingspan, has very good hands, and is mobile. He wouldn’t have to be all that great a shooter, although it would be nice if he can hit his freebies.

I actually flirted with putting Jeff Green at SF on the starting unit because of his athleticism as part of an up-tempo game. It’s entirely conceivable that, depending on the number of skills Jeff shows, he might end the season having replaced Paul on the starting team. On my starting unit, Paul is arguably the weak link because he’s not an athletic wing player. But, at the outset of the season, I find it necessary to concede some athleticism to take advantage of Paul’s veteran savvy, ability to create his own shot, presence that spreads the floor, and ability at point forward if needed. I don’t believe Paul can penetrate as he used to, and I’d like the penetration to come more from the guard positions. Paul’s perimeter game would become a more prominent part of his role in my model because my first team doesn’t include Ray.

Avery Bradley gets my nod as starting SG because of (1) his incredible defensive skills, (2) his rapidly improving shooting prowess, (3) his athleticism in being an integral part of the fast break, (4) his ability to disrupt opposing guards—even taller ones—on defense, and (5) the fact that he penetrates well and gives the team a lot of motion on offense, although I’d like him to spend the summer (maybe in the summer leagues) working to improve his handle. I’m just one of many who really appreciates the apparent synergy between Rondo and Avery. Despite Avery’s improvement in shooting from the perimeter, I wouldn’t want to count on him to space the floor, which is why that element in Paul’s game assumes great important.

Rondo at PG. Any questions? I thought not.

The Bench: Firepower, Inc.

My bench wouldn’t necessarily enter the game as a unit, as I believe Doc has gotten away from that tactic. The bench wouldn’t have the athleticism of the starting unit, but would become known for its instant offense.

A long rebounding stud would be my center. (Bare minimum 250 pounds but with agility.) It’s possible that Greg Stiemsma would qualify, but he’d have to become tougher and nastier under the boards as well as continuing to develop better hands. I think he’s done an admirable job in becoming more savvy and more active (especially considering his foot problems) in his defensive play. My guess, though, would be that I’d focus both of my first round picks on long, mobile bruisers. By the way, Chris Wilcox could be a very good addition if he's healthy. However, I would look at him as a stopgap backup center and would still want to have young stud (as described above) on board and learning the ropes.

Brandon Bass would be my bench PF. He seems not to complain about much of anything, and I’d hope that an opportunity to become a trusted hired gun on of the bench would appeal to him. I think he did a very consistent job on the starting unit this season, but I want more length up front among the starters to get the boards and start the break.

Jeff Green would be my SF off the bench. As I said earlier, he could potentially swap places with Paul Pierce to add athleticism to the transition game as the season progresses. (I have no idea how that would sit with Paul Pierce, but it could become the best thing for the team depending on Jeff’s performance.)

Ray would be my SG off the bench. He’d be the primary floor spacer and a major sharpshooter for this unit. But, in light of his recent injury situation, his possible health susceptibility over time, and looking toward the future, my primary free agent push would be for a lights out shooting wing. It seems as though almost every contender has a bench who’s reliably red hot almost every time he enters the game. I think we need one of those not only for the bench but also for situational matchups. Moore should get plenty of opportunity to prove himself, which is why I’d prefer to get a free agent shooter who can play either SF or SG.

I’d try to get a free agent Brevin Knight, shoot first, retread type (not Brevin himself) as my backup PG. Rondo’s the only PG on the Celtics who really has a strong facility for running a team.

Complementary Players

A good basketball team always needs reliable “utility players” (to borrow a baseball term). Filling out the roster wouldn’t be difficult. I could make cases for retaining the specialized talents of Dooling, Pietrus, Pavlovic and even Sean Williams. I’m not a fan of Johnson’s slight frame, but he’s supposed to be a good defender, and miracles have happened.

In Summary

My overall objective would be to put together an attacking starting unit that would propel the Celtics to early leads with the complementary objective of forcing opponents into fatiguing attempts to play catchup. My next objective would be to construct a second unit that would have sufficient firepower continue or expand the offensive onslaught against secondary players of opponents. My ongoing assumption would be that the Celtics’ defensive system would almost automatically make both units effective on the defensive end. And, finally, through free agency and/or the draft, I’d look for help at starting PF (big bruiser), backup C (big bruiser) and wing (lights out shooter). (I think high quality, free agent wings who are not over-the-hill retreads are more available than high quality, free agent big men.) I’m not a huge fan of trades because of their inherent principle of giving up as much as you get. So any trades would either have to be blockbusters, yielding a “can’t refuse” foundation for the team, or minor tweaking. In the back of my mind, throughout this process, has been the need to strive for a roster of interchangeable players in order to guard against health and foul contingencies.

Go Celtics in 2012-13!

Sam

Great breakdown Sam, now, if you could pass this on to Danny.....we will put you on the payroll

RosalieTCeltics wrote:I really am convinced that JJ is a goner, Doc kind of just let him sit on the bench this year. It seems to me there is a lack of confidence in his ability. I wonder if he will be packaged with one or two round picks for a move up. You have to have somebody want him to make it possible.

Bob, what do you think? I really think they will hold on to Moore. Does Williams have any shot at making this team?

Rosalie

Rosalie,

You may be right about JJJ being part of a package. Unfortunately, due to the lockout, players like JJJ and Moore were at a distinct disadvantage. The good news is that JJJ is starting year 2 of a 4 year rookie contract and that makes him attractive. The bad news is that Moore only signed a 1 year contract and is now a free agent.

Does Williams have a shot at making this team? The truth is "I don't know". I didn't see enough, and he didn't get enough time, to see if he can flourish in Doc's system. He might because we're starved for bigs. He's got the height Sam wants, 6'10", but is listed at only 235#. He's not known as a power rebounder, but he did well in the short stint he had with us this year. Of course, he played so few minutes that really means nothing. When you're drafting as far down as we are all the NBA-ready players are pretty much already picked. Royce White, who should be available when we pick is a 270# PF, but is only 6'8".

bob


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Bob, I'm not usually so arbitrary about physical stats. But it seems we've had a succession of players who offer so much but have flaws on which opponents can prey. I have no idea whether there's a big in the world who combines length with bulk, speed and good hands and who isn't already on an NBA team. But I'm hoping that, without a strong shooting requirement, someone might show up.

There's also the reality that this guy might be an excellent backup for KG but not a candidate for a long-term tenure as a future backbone for the team. That's a factor that shouldn't be overlooked.

I'm glad Danny has that job.

Sam

I noticed on the Celtics web site where they listed the players, contract numbers, etc that they signed Williams to a two year contract, next year being non guaranteed.

I wonder what a kid like Moore will do since he was so disappointed at the lack of playing time this year. Will he shot himself around and go to another team with more promises of playing time? Interesting that he was only signed for one year. I forget, was he a late second rounder?

The Celtics have a lot of cap space, yet there is not all that many "difference makers" out there in the free agent market. That, along with the fact that our 1st round picks are in the low 20's. There won't be many "difference makers" to be found there as well.

Perhaps the Celtics could bundle the two picks and move up in the draft. Still, there is no guarantee that a draft pick in the low teens would end up being a "difference maker". Too much hit or miss in the draft.

I suggest that in order to repeat the success of the last five years, Danny re-signs KG, Bass, Ray, etc. to one year contracts and, in doing so, saves the cap space for the free agent market in the next off season. Meanwhile, he could keep collecting tradable assetts through the draft and pull off a trade or two in the next off season.

The key is to aquire "difference makers". The teams that make it to the finals always (or with very few exceptions) have the "difference makers".

The template that Danny used in the summer of '07 could be reused. Perhaps Danny uses next year as a gap year and goes all in in the summer of '13.

gyso

sam wrote:Bob, I'm not usually so arbitrary about physical stats. But it seems we've had a succession of players who offer so much but have flaws on which opponents can prey. I have no idea whether there's a big in the world who combines length with bulk, speed and good hands and who isn't already on an NBA team. But I'm hoping that, without a strong shooting requirement, someone might show up.

There's also the reality that this guy might be an excellent backup for KG but not a candidate for a long-term tenure as a future backbone for the team. That's a factor that shouldn't be overlooked.

I'm glad Danny has that job.

Sam

sam,

Every thing has its place and every place has its thing. We've been privileged, here in Boston, to see some truly prototype PFs: Silas, McHale, KG. Silas fits the description of what you're looking for. Tall (for his time), rugged rebounder, strong defender, offensively limited (I realize the "offensively limited" is not something you are looking for, but would be willing to accept in exchange for the other plusses). It's natural and understandable that we would look for that square peg to fit into our traditionally successful square hole.

Are there players like that who aren't already on an NBA team? Where was Greg Stiemsma last year? When you are a well-rounded, talented player teams will create slots for you. When you are uni-dimensional or have glaring weaknesses, they will not. If, however, a specific need exists for their uni-dimension...

Rebounding is a weakness of ours. GLARING. Having a player who can provide some physical intimidation and resistance under the basket is a GLARING need of ours. This creates an opportunity for the Steamers and other players who are living off of a specialty and hoping for a break.

I believe that Steamer is the first player to ever make the Celtics out of D-league (being a 26-year old rookie is odd enough). Before this the Celtics sent players they drafted to Maine to further develop, but not use the D-league as a farm. Maybe he cracked the seal and Danny is looking for another specific role player from there now.

Ironically, Luke Harangody is now in the D-league. Another too short (6'8") PF, but rugged and not afraid to stick his nose in to get a rebound.

http://www.nba.com/dleague/playerfile/luke_harangody/

Maybe Sean Williams will hit the weights this summer and bulk up? If he adds 10# that will get him to 245#. 6'10", 245# will probably improve his rebounding since he won't get moved off his spot as easily.

The NBA draft is in 16 days. By July 4th, the first flurry of wheeling and dealing will be over.

bob

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Sam

On the same page with you.

This will be a transition year. From what I am reading, it sounds like Ray will be gone so we will need a shooter off the bench.

I agree with you about Bass. We need more length at the starting pf. One may be available in the draft.

We need Kg to return for another year.

Most of all we are going to need that ultimate go to guy to replace pp as his impact continues to decline

That the hard part unless you are at the top end of the draft or there are high end free agents available. We may have to wait until next year for that piece.

In the meantime the new edition of the Celtics could be a fast break machine if Green can come back strong.

Dboss

Bob and gyso,

I'm interested in gyso's mention (more than once) of the importance of finding a "difference maker." Gyso, I assume you wouldn't care whether he came from the draft, free agency, the D League or trade (depending on what the Celtics would have to give up). If you mean someone who can make impact as a role player, I'd agree completely. If you are referring to a future all-star, I'd have second thoughts.

Bob put it very succinctly when he mentioned Paul Silas as the type of player I'd like to get (with a couple of added inches in this day and age). He was the perfect defensive/rebounding stud to complement the offensive skills of Cowens, Havlicek, White and Scott. In his career, he averaged more rebounds (9.9) than points (9.4), and a lot of the points he got were on putbacks. The fact that he developed a decent little jumper as a Celtic was a bonus.

I don't believe the Celtics should be looking for stars because (barring a blockbuster trade that would probably cost the Celtics dearly) that would be unrealistic. If they get the right role player or two to complement KG, Pierce, Rondo, Bradley, Bass and Ray (if he's here) while adding the right kind of depth, I'll be very happy.

Of all the players who were on the roster this year, my pick as the most "pivotal" in facing the future would be Brandon Bass. Right now, he's sort of a poor man's Paul Silas with better offensive skills but (partly because of his height disadvantage) less highly developed banging and defensive skills. Some of his height limitation can be offset with improvement in how he positions himself and blocks out on the defensive board. If he could improve in those areas, I might even be happy with him as a long-term starting PF for the Celtics. But, in the meantime, I'll stick with my wish for a couple of would-be studs, procured in some relatively inexpensive way, shape or manner.

Sam

Semih Erden is a restricted free agent with Cleveland. At last report, no decision has been made about making him a qualifying offer. They likely will, in order to retain control over him, for $1.1M.

Can Erden play PF, with the understanding that he has no offense outside of 4 feet? Does he have the foot speed to defend PFs? Lord knows he has the size and physical nature that Sam is looking for. Interestingly, a player that played center for us and for Cleveland is only 240#.

bob
P.S. Harangody is a restricted free agent too, but will not be made an offer. I'm just saying...


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Let's not forget about the availability of Lamar Odom.

bob


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Sam

Do you think the Celts can win without a high end player?

I think at this point Rondo is high end for what he does compared to the best pg but who gets the ball at the end of games when we need a basket?

I still think they will need that 1special player. Maybe we will luck out in the draft like we did with Rondo and Bradley.

Dboss

I would be thrilled if Fab Melo and Royce White are there at 21 and 22. Melo we need for obvious reasons, White reminds me of a juiced up Igoudala, has point forward skills and can run with Rondo and take it end to end.

I'm in complete agreement with Sam.

When I think of all the Celtics teams I've seen from the Russell era to Cowen's teams, Bird's and the first year of the present big 3 they all had rugged rebounders who could block out, out-pass on the fast break and limit the opposing team's opportunities for offensive boards. While we had Perkins for a few years, after that we had no Leon Powe, PG Brown etc.

Notice all the other Celtics teams won multiple championships. I know we had a lot of bad luck with injuries and almost won anyway but I think we're never going to have a multiple win championship team until Danny finds a way to fix this problem.

Dboss,

No, I don't think the Celtics can win without more than one high-end player. But I'm hoping that Rondo, Pierce and KG can be high end players for the next year or so while other players on the roster have a chance to develop into high end players or at least develop to the point where they represent valuable trading chips with which Danny might trade for a high-end player (or maybe even two, as he did five years ago).

The kicker here is the agency potential offered by free agency. I tend to think of free agency mainly as a place where role players predominate or retread stars can get inflated deals while their careers continue to deteriorate. (At this point, Odom could potentially be one of the latter.) But it's not impossible that the Celts could luck out with a really good free agent pickup—either this summer or when they gain additional cap room with the eventual departure of Paul Pierce.

Sam