A Positive Slant to Rondo's Injury

A Positive Slant on Rondo’s Injury

There’s no question that the Celtics will miss Rondo. A lot! Many adjustments will have to be made in light of his unavailability. His triple doubles will be sorely missed (at least by many fans), as will his penetration capability, his passing skills, and even his improving jumper.

A torn ACL must be about the most undesirable cause of a hiatus in the Rondo-team partnership. However, if there is a hidden benefit emerging from the injury, it could well be the opportunity to step back and reflect on the evolving dynamic between Rondo and the team.

For instance, let’s think a little about the identity of the team. In 2007-08, the identity centered around killer defense and the complementary abilities and experience of the Three Amigos, as the team won a championship in their first season together. Gradually, Rondo worked his way into that triumvirate, and they came oh-so-close to winning it all again, as Rondo’s energetic offensive skills seemed to introduce a nice balance for the slowly declining offensive skills of the other three Amigos.

This season, the Celtics’ roster comprises four different elements:

• The remaining Amigos (KG and Pierce) plus one-year, holdover veteran Brandon Bass

• Several veterans who had grown up with other organizations (Terry, Lee, Wilcox, Barbosa, Green, Collins)

• Two new and dynamic youngsters (Sully and Bradley)

and

• Rondo

And, coincidental with the formation of this roster was the fact that the identity of the team was pretty much entrusted to Rondo. The team, in fact, was now quite Rondo-centric:

• The offense is stagnant? Okay, Rondo should score more.

• The defense against perimeter penetration is porous? Okay, Rondo should defend better.

• They’re committing too many turnovers? Okay, Rondo shouldn’t be so reckless, and teammates should be
more ready for Rondo’s passes.

• They won a big game? It’s because Rondo carried them on his back.

• Want some inspiration? How about Rondo’s assist streak?

• Hey, didja see Rondo leave Parker in the dust?

But, while Rondo was becoming the central figure in the fortunes of the 2012-13 Celtics, what identity characterized the team as a whole? What was their trademark? Their reliable go-to strength? Frankly, I can’t think of any—at least nothing positive. And, more often than not, their play was equally nondescript. A few positive moments here, but a lot of mediocre (or poorer) moments there. Five straight wins (yay!!!) followed by six straight losses—some to also-ran teams (what the….?). The most palatable identity I can ascribe to this team is inconsistent.

And I happen to believe that the word “inconsistent” is also the best way to describe Rondo’s performance this season. In other words, the team is playing in his image, and that image is one of inconsistency.

In many ways, the veteran additions to the team and the younger players alike have struggled all season long to fit in. But the organism they’re trying to fit into has been a moving target because it has pretty much been determined by Rondo’s personal unpredictability and his mercurial whims.

The players on this team clearly need to feel more comfortable and instinctive in their contributions. What I’m hoping will happen during Rondo’s absence is that the team will develop a “Rondo-less” chemistry that will accommodate the optimal inputs of all players in roles that are best for the team—not best for an identity established largely by Rondo. Without a pure PG (IF they don't get one), I'm hoping passes will become shorter and crisper. I'll be looking for a lot more ball movement, and I'm hoping for more player movement without the ball. I'm hoping no one individual will hold or dribble the ball throughout the first half of the 24-second clock and the Celtics will run their first option earlier in the clock. I'm hoping for more plays designed by Doc.

I’m not hoping any of this will occur at Rondo’s ultimate expense. The best of all worlds, in my opinion, would be that Rondo will observe how the team is functioning with optimal inputs from various players. I’m hopeful that he will incorporate that knowledge into his approach to the game when he returns, thereby developing more of an objective than a subjective basketball mentality.

I’m hoping Rondo will watch Courtney Lee’s approach to the game—Lee’s tendency to take fewer chances and exhibit less flash but his ability to get the job done. In particular, I hope Rondo will be fascinated by Lee’s defensive approach, which involves less emphasis on athleticism and more on anticipation and deception.

I hope Rondo (still my favorite current Celtic) gets well as soon as is humanly possible. But I do believe that the time he’s out can be used productively—and to the team’s ultimate benefit.

Go Celtics!

Sam

P.S. I think it's not necessarily coincidental that this is the first season in which the Celtics' record WITHOUT Rondo has not been a winning one. They're 3-3 this season. No knock on Rondo, but perhaps it's easier to adapt to a system without the complexities introduced by Rondo. Who knows?

Sam,

Very insightful...and philosophical at the same time. You are very much spot on. It will be very interesting if the Celtics thrive with another PG and Rondo begins to become an outsider to the rest of the team. It could very well spell the end of Rondo with the Celtics. I hope not but his could be a way of Rondo growing up as well, and seeing other ways of winning verses Rondo's way.

112288

112288,

If it sounded as though I felt Rondo might become an outsider, that's not what I intended. I hope he'll continue to be very much part of the team while serving his injury time on the bench and after he's eligible to return. But I hope the different chemistry perspective registered by the rest of the team during his time away from the floor will be sufficiently successful to give him something to think about in terms of his future approach as a Celtic.

Sam

Like everyone who follows this team I have been often amazed at some of the things Rondo can do. However as leader of the team? There I have always had strong doubts. It's often been the "Rondo Show" instead of the "Team Show" that we saw yesterday.

The question of course for this season is whether they will be able to play like they did last night consistently.

While I'm sorry for Rondo and wish him a speedy recovery I too look at this situation as a chance to find out exactly what we have in players. If we can play team basketball consistently I think there is a strong possibility that we can make some noise this year.

Thanks Sam, for starting this thread and for your sharp analysis of the situation as it stands today. I have been reading so many "Woe is us" posts on other sites that you would think that we were blown out by 30 points last night. We won for crying out loud!

Let's see how it plays out from here. I for one am optimistic.

Sam,

I got that opinion when you used the term “Rondo-less” chemistry. If they begin winning with a new PG there will be a feeling among players of...don't disturb the apple cart when Rondo comes back. Rondo would have to give in to what is being done successfully at that point in time....if not he would become an outsider.

Winning does change everything so it will be interesting to see.

112288

This team's offense was designed and built around Rondo. We've all said, many times, how he is the straw that stirs the Celtics' drink, he is the offensive catalyst, he is the hub of the wheel that all the other player "spokes" plug into. Well, season-to-date, the drink was not getting consistently stirred, there was no real offensive chemistry and the spokes didn't integrate well with the hub.

So far this season, the Celtics are 21st in the league in assists/game, with 23.07apg. I looked at the play-by-play record from yesterday. Pierce had 3 assists in OT, there were NO assists in 2OT. The Celtics had 24 assists yesterday. So, if you subtract those three you have the Celts with 21 assists over 48 minutes of regulation. If we forget that the Celts probably had assists in earlier OT games that plump up that 23.07 number, that means that we only had 2 assists fewer yesterday without Rondo than we have been averaging with him. Not bad, especially since there have been no practices nor coordinated effort put into building an offense without him. We've played a few games without him, due to his boneheadedness and immaturity, but those were not seen as normal. Now, it's normal, and practices and set plays will be practiced and implemented to reflect this new normal. Like I said though, not bad coming in cold like this.

So far, this season, the Celtics have been averaging 14.61 TOs/game. Yesterday, in regulation, without Rondo, we had 3 TOs in the OTs, 2 by Pierce and one by Green. We had 11 TOs yesterday, if you back out those three. We took better care of the ball. Once again, an improvement.

We also shot 85% from the line. What would that number have been if Rondo had been playing and was going to the line?

Steals/game? 8.73/game average. Yesterday? 11 total.

Our fg% was bad, at 40.9%, but theirs was worse at 40.6%. That's the way this game was on both ends of the court. It was defense, defense, defense.

My point here is that if we're looking at the statistical impact of Rondo's absence, things don't look so bad, although one game might not tell the tale.

What happened yesterday is that other players stepped up and filled the void. Pierce had 10 assists. He had 6 TOs (also very Rondo-like), but 3 of them came in the extra time. KG had 4 assists and Leandro Barbosa, a man who will no doubt be getting more minutes now, had 4 assists. There's 18 of our 24. When was the last time KG or Blur had those many assists? Must have been a game where Rondo wasn't playing.

Adapt or Die. Simple Darwinian arithmetic. You either figure out how to survive or you say bye-bye.

I'm expecting to see more of Pierce playing "point forward". Lee/Bradley/JET/Blur might bring the ball over half court to save wear-and-tear on Pierce, but then they give it to Pierce and let him create and dish, something we haven't seen much of so far. I expect to see KG try to draw doubles in the low post and then pass out of it, something we haven't seen much of so far. I expect to see us running more consistently. I might have seen JET walk the ball up once or twice, but I have never seen Lee, Bradley or Blur bring it up at anything slower than a trot. Isn't that what we've all been screaming for? Blur will become a regular rotation player.

JET is the weak link on perimeter defense now. Before, it was JET and Rondo. Isn't the elimination of a weak link a good thing?

I'm not saying that the loss of Rondo is a good thing, net, but I am saying is that he was a much more flawed player this year than in previous years and the loss of those flaws (e.g. porous perimeter defense, overly aggressive passing for TOs, inconsistent running, often holding the ball until the shot clock was under 5 seconds) with his loss should be taken into account when summing up our current state of affairs too.

I also expect the defense, from here on out, to be beyond ferocious and that's good too.


bob


.

Maybe the "leader" mantle is one that Rondo just doesn't need. He is by any measure among the league's top point guards and a player we could build off of, but that doesn't make him a leader. Nor does it have to.

Paul Pierce might be a great comparison. He doesn't have much in the way of leadership skills, although he's improved some since '07. The true leader since '07 has been Garnett and he's the one who helped change the culture of the team. Garnett went as far as to insist Pierce be named captain, when it could very well have been Garnett.

There's a difference in the floor leadership provided by a point guard like Rondo and the overall mental/spiritual team type of leadership provided by someone like KG. Perhaps it's best to let Rondo distribute, score and rebound as he directs the flow on the floor and let someone else take it from there.

112288,

I added and deleted the "Rondo-less" term several times because, while it nicely described what I was aiming at, I didn't want people to think I was describing a situation in which Rondo would become excluded. I'm hoping for an atmosphere in which the other players (especially those who haven't been with Celtics for long) can feel more heavily invested in the forces that drive the team. For example, I hope they'll feel more comfortable in sharing ideas about things that worked on other teams rather than to have to focus so hard on just fitting in with the Celtics.

I should have included the following in my previous post.

It seems to me that, if this has truly become a "Rondo-centric" team, that fact has to exert a lot of leadership pressure on Rondo that he values in one sense yet finds a burden in another sense. That schizophrenic kind of mentality and preoccupation could very well be at least part of the underlying reason for his inconsistency.

So I guess that, if I had to select one word to describe the way in which the Celtics' collective mind set would evolve, it would be more sharing both in mental approach and execution. I believe that's what has always been a distinctive aspect of the Celtics.

At one time or another, they've been Cousy's team or Russell's team or Havlicek's team or Sidney Wicks' team (just wanted to see if you were paying attention) or Larry's team or Paul's team—yet (except in the case of Sid the Squid) the leadership has been egalitarian in nature. I love the word “egalitarian” so much that I have to look up the meaning every once in a while just to make sure it hasn’t changed:

1: a belief in human equality especially with respect to social, political, economic and basketball affairs

2: a social philosophy advocating the removal of inequalities among players

(Okay, so I changed a couple of words.)

Go Celtics!

Sam

P.S. to NYCelt: Sorry to duplicate your train of thought by talking about leadership. I posted this message while you were posting yours.

Sam,

How about we use the theory that "great minds think alike" and don't allow our wives to comment on it?

Regards

NYCelt,

Deal!

Sam

Very interesting comments.

I have two of my own to make.

Rondo has been an extension of Doc Rivers. He has been running Doc's offense.

Without a solid point guard, this team is a rudderless ship and I do not see how they will be effective. Winning one or two games without Rondo is not meaningful to me at this juncture.

Dboss

I have read so may articles today about the demise of the Boston Celtics that it is making me sick. Blow it up they are all saying. Send Pierce to Memphis. Trade Garnett. (I am baffled by this one, since it has been reported that he has a non trade contract), Are they going to ask his permission to ship him wherever? Get rid of Bass. Trade Bradley, JET, Sullinger.

This is really all ridiculous. Pierce is going no where, ditto Garnett. The others, Maybe Bass or Lee (which would be a stupid mistake), may go. I just think what we see is what we have give or take a player or two. Get used to it.
We may be pleasantly surprised. My take on all of it, that's all.

Rosalie

Interesting comments by everyone.

I agree with Rosalie that most of the people saying to "blow it up" have no idea what they're talking about or, at a minimum, are discussing scenarios that are close to impossible. They may add a piece, but I think it's unlikely that there will be any big trades.

I also agree with Berlin that Rondo isn't really well-suited to be THE leader and perhaps works better when he is A leader. So who is the leader? It's natural to defer to KG and Pierce because of their status as veterans with this team, but with Rondo out, it will be interesting to see if someone from the younger group steps up to fill those shoes.

Rondo getting hurt is a huge disappointment, but his loss does present an opportunity for others to step up. To an extent, Rondo's status as the younger leader may have prevented other younger players from exerting themselves fully. We'll see who has the personality to fill that role.

What would be odd is if the loss of Rondo leads to the Celtics running more, but I would bet on that being the case, for several reasons:

• They're only going to survive by playing the hyperkinetic defense we saw against Miami, and that type of defense leads to transition opportunities.

• The offense will struggle more without Rondo, and the simplest way to overcome a struggling offense is to rely on it less by getting out in transition as much as possible.

• Barbosa in particular should get more playing time, and he likes to push the ball and drive in transition.

There may be some fast breaks that end with missed layups or ugly shots, but the Celtics' rate of success in transition will still likely be better than in their Rondo-less half-court offense.

The Celtics may try to pick up a point guard, but I think they can do fine with their current corps of guards -- Lee, Bradley, Terry, and Barbosa, plus a dose of Pierce playing point forward. Even with Rondo's injury, I'd still list an effective post scorer as their biggest deficiency.

The blow it up scenario may mean different things to different people; personally I think it's just a dramatic way to state the obvious. In this case the obvious is that it's the end of the run for this particular collection of Celtic players. I think most fans realize the fact and are now emotionally preparing themselves to see the team go forward; there just may be ways to state it without the hyperbole.

There are several theories being thrown around, most of which truly have no basis in probability or reality. The thought of moving KG has two strikes against it right out of the gate; his contract makes him an unattractive acquisition to begin with and the apparent rate of decline in his game does not warrant tying yourself to him longer than this spring. Competing teams are looking for help to get them over the hump, but often on a very temporary basis. As it is this has gotten harder to do in today's NBA.

Trying to deal Pierce is grounded in reality however, in that he can still fill it up enough for a team looking to add offense, and his contract structure is very favorable to bring him in for a limited period without his contract bogging things down for long. Pierce may, in essence, be someone else's PJ Brown. He may be among the few players with his level of remaining ability available with a relatively easy to handle contract and that drives his value up. Supply and demand is still alive and well in the NBA. What you get back might be draft picks or the outside possibility of a young player who might fill a need or hold some promise. You also may get to see some money freed up in fairly short order to use as needed. You're certainly not getting current all-star calibre talent in return and you do have the rules of the current bargaining agreement to deal with in trying to settle any exchange. From a rebuilding standpoint it may make more sense to look at dealing Pierce or whoever we can in order to stockpile draft picks rather than try and hunt for the quick big kill. We all know what happens when you go hunting elephants and miss.

We don't have a lot to bargain with, but we do have to rebuild. I think the point being made, sometimes in an overly dramatic fashion, is that it makes little sense to wait if any opportunity does arise. The market value of nearly all of our players is low now, but diminishes further when the pressure on others to make a playoff run is gone.

Rebuild/blow it up. Tom-AY-to/tom-AH-to. You don't want to go into next season with what we have now, unless you want to invite mediocrity, and a little pain sooner rather than later may mean starting to feel a little better by Autumn instead of feeling ill through all of next Winter. It is not likely to be a fast process, but may be exciting to see the growth of a new batch of future contending Celtics.

EDIT: Of course the rest of the business end is that you balance all of this with the likelihood of making the playoffs before and after. Those seats being filled beyond the season make significant revenue. If the hold on the playoffs looks like it's tenuous at best, there is less reason to wait to get started.

At some point the team will need a superstar...None on the horizon at the moment.

Dboss

Bob one small correction, we are 6th in the league in assists per game instead of 21st.

tardust wrote:Bob one small correction, we are 6th in the league in assists per game instead of 21st.

Oops. You're right, tardust. Thanks. Nice of you to say it was a "small correction", when the difference between 21st and 6th really isn't.


bob

.

Tardust and BobH,

In the running stats I've been compiling game by game throughout the season, I'm a couple of games behind. But the percentage of Celtics' assisted field goals started out above 70%, steadily declined, and, during the losing streak, was down to 51%. Since I haven't noticed any major increase in the Celtics' number of field goals per game, I'm betting that the recent rate of sheer number of assists places the Celts well below #6.

Sam

Assist reflect good ball movement and guys making shots. During the losing streak we did not shoot the ball very well. I got the sense that the offense was stagnant and pp in particular was not shooting a high percentage.

Dboss